재정분권화가 중국 경제성장에 미친 영향 분석

최원익 국제지역학회 2010 국제지역연구 Vol.14 No.3

This study analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth by using each province·city's panel data of China from 1985 to 2008. By using Recently developed fiscal decentralization index and autonomy of local government quantified this study finds the following conclusions. The increase of inflation rate affects positive effect on Chinese economy. This is the trade-off relationship with the growth of Chinese economy by the Phillips Curve theory. So this suggests the instability of Chinese economy. The affiliation of WTO of China shows positive effect on Chinese economy. This can be translated as the real evidence about free trade theory of Classical School. Expenditure decentralization in China led to economic growth and revenue decentralization also affected positively although it was not as much as expenditure decentralization's effect. Central tax and local tax negatively influenced economic growth; and differently from our expectation, local government autonomy quantified was not relevant to economic growth. 본 연구는 중국의 1985년부터 2008년까지의 각 성·시에 관한 패널데이터를 활용해서 재정분권화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 실증분석한다. 재정분권화를 위해 최근에 개발된 지표를 사용하고 지방정부의 자율재량권을 계량화해서 모형에 반영하여 다음의 결론을 얻는다. 인플레이션율의 증가는 중국경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났는데 이는 필립스커브에 의하면 고용량의 증가로 대변되는 중국경제성장과 상충되는 개념으로서 향후 중국경제의 불안정성을 암시하고 있다. 중국의 WTO가입은 중국경제에 긍정적인 역할을 해온 것으로 나타났는데 이는 고전학파의 자유무역이론을 뒷받침하는 실증결과로 해석할 수 있다. 지출분권화는 중국경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고, 또한 세입분권화도 지출분권화만큼 크지는 않지만 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 끼쳤다. 국세나 지방세를 많이 부과하면 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고, 기대와는 달리 지방정부의 자율재량권을 계량화해서 반영한 지표는 경제성장과 관련이 없는 것으로 나타났다.

중국의 시장경제체제화와 한국기업의 진출방안

최원익 대한경영학회 2005 大韓經營學會誌 Vol.18 No.2

China started construction of “east-north 3 provinces” after advocating “reformingopening” in 1978 and the eastern coast region when Deng Xiaoping promoted “reformingopening”. And China has launched “western big development” since 2000 and is promoting the strategy of reconstruction of “east-north 3 provinces”. China also joined WTO in the end of 2001 and revised its international trade law in 2004. In addition to them the appreciation of chinese currency is requested by G7. As these serial processes are related with the market economy systematizing of China, Korea enterprises should try to enter China upon due consideration of these developing strategies and economic aspects of China.In connection with “western big development” entry of Korea enterprises should be made according to strategies given by China and focused of resource development and investment in the field of environment. It is a weak point that the investment in “western big development” should be big scales and can't have gains in short period as conception period of the investment is commonly long.In case of “east-north 3 provinces”, infra-structures are made very well, professionals are affluent, the ratio of nation-owned enterprises is high and also, instrumental facilities are too old. Therefore, chinese government tries to change these old facilities, introduce new technologies, switchover traditional industry fields to new material industry field, bio-technology industry field and high-technology industry field. The re-exportation companies do not make chinese think that the companies send their profits to home countries on the base of low labor costs in China. So Korea enerprises should focus in these fields and participate actively “Duman River region development program” promoted by UNDP(United Nations Development Program). 중국은 1978년에 “개혁개방”을 주창한 이후 “동북3성”의 건설을 시작하였으며, 2000년 이후에는 “서부대개발”과 “동북3성”의 재건을 추진하고 있다. 또한, 중국은 2001년에 WTO에 가입하였으며, 2004년에는 대외무역법을 획기적으로 개정하였고, 또한 위안화의 절상문제가 항상 대두되고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 중국경제상황의 변화에 맞추어 한국기업들의 중국진출이 이루어져야 한다. “서부대개발”과 관련해서 한국기업의 진출은 중국의 전략에 발맞추어 이루어져야 하며, 환경 및 자원에 대한 투자가 이루어져야 한다. 단, “서부대개발”은 대규모이어야 하고 투자에 대한 회수기간이 길다는 것을 유념해야 한다. “동북3성” 재건의 경우, 인프라구축 및 전문가집단이 잘 되어 있고 새로운 과학기술의 도입을 희망하고 있으며, 생명공학 및 하이테크 분야의 도입을 도모하고 있는 것이다.특히, 역수출을 위주로 하는 기업은 단독보다는 합자형태의 기업설립을 통해 현지화를 실현하여 문화적인 차이를 극복하며, 현지인을 중요 직책에 임명하고 선진화된 관리시스템을 도입하여 역수출하는 기업이 단지 저임금을 중요기반으로 해서 중국으로부터 부를 본국에 단순 송출해간다는 인식을 현지인들이 갖지 않도록 해야 한다. 이러한 과정을 통해 한국기업들은 UNDP에 의해 추진되는 “두만강유역개발프로그램”에도 참여하는 면모를 보여야 할 것이다.

커넬회귀법을 이용한 산업내무역에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 실증분석

최원익 한국무역연구원 2010 무역연구 Vol.6 No.2

This study investigates the Korea's intra-industry trade with China by using the Korea-China trade data from 1991 to 2008 and analyses empirically the influential factors to Korea's intra-industry trade. The conventional G-L index method is used to estimate Korea's intra-industry trade and, for the analysis of the influential factors to Korea's intra-industry trade, the Kernel regression method instead of OLS regression method is used as a new trial because OLS regression method used to the existing researches can cause many problems. Inter-industry trade was the main phenomenon of the early stage of Korea-China trade but later the portion of intra-industry trade was increased. The portion of vertical intra-industry trade was larger than horizontal intra-industry trade. Intra-industry trade is increased when average market size is bigger; average development stage is higher; and difference of the market sizes of two countries is bigger. Also Korea's intra-industry trade is increased when the difference of factor endowments between two countries is larger.

한국의 동북아지역에 대한 무역구조 개선방향

최원익 동중앙아시아경상학회 2010 한몽경상연구 Vol.21 No.2

This paper seeks the ideal direction of Korea' trade structure toward north-east Asia area centering China, Japan and Russia as Korea pursues export-driven policy since Korea has poor natural resources. Korea's trade structure from the beginning of 1990 to the present is superior quality intra-industry trade(SQIIT) with China as a foreign trade partner; intra-industry trade(IIT) is consistently high with Japan; and inter-industry trade is high with Russia. Korea should change the trade structure into intra-industry trade(IIT) with these countries. Intra-industry trade(IIT) can increase export·import portion of the trading partners so that each country can avoid trade frictions and pursues economic gains through trade.

지방재정구조 및 운영행태에 대한 소고-경기도를 중심으로-

최원익 한국지방재정학회 2003 한국지방재정논집 Vol.8 No.2

This paper tries to raise an issue to handle local finance efficiently by studying size, structure and administrative manners of Gyeonggido finance. Gyeonggido among local self-governing bodies has the largest annual expenditure size. Relative importance of general accounts decreased suddenly in the beginning of the nineties and increased since then. The reason is that during the establishing period of five new cities of Gyeonggido the public development operation cost of public enterprise special account increased very high. In functional classification, relative importance of social development cost increased very much in the late nineties and that of economic development cost was in the trend of decrease. This means Gyeonggido proved to be an aggressive self-governing body. Personnel expenses decreased gradually after giving effect to local self-governing system and this was showing that Gyeonggido operated finance efficiently. And sudden increase of capital expenditures in the beginning of the nineties was due to the establishment of five new cities of Gyeonggido. Studying by structures has its own limitation in identifying if local finance is efficiently operated and so new objective measure systems are needed.

한국 지방자치단체 효율성 및 효율성 결정요인에 관한 실증분석

최원익 한국지방자치학회 2009 한국지방자치학회보 Vol.21 No.4

This paper have analysed in the first stage the efficiency of Korea's great-sphere municipalities using nonparametric data envelopment analysis(DEA) method. This allows for us to confirm that most great-sphere municipalities can improve efficiency by reducing spending expenditures with providing the residents of their regions with the same services. And efficiencies of heavily populated areas are higher than sparsely populated. But it is impossible for us to give politic advices to municipalities with only estimates of efficiency. Therefore, in order to know the effect of socio-economic factors on efficiency, as the second stage, my paper have regressed Kernel estimates of efficiency on the factors so that most financial factors affect positively efficiency and as a non-discretionary factor, the more college-educated people a municipality has, the higher efficiency it deserves. The role of socio-economic factors in efficiency, which was not got a line on in the first stage analysis, is revealed by the second stage; and by this we may give politic advices to municipalities.

한국의 대 일본 무역에서 산업내무역 결정요인에 관한 실증분석

최원익 한국무역연구원 2010 무역연구 Vol.6 No.4

This paper aims to measure the level of intra-industry trade(IIT) by using Korea-Japan trade and macroeconomic data from 1991 to 2008 and on the basis of this result analyzes the determinants of the intra-industry trade. By using the Newey-West estimation method to overcome the shortcomings of OLS and kernel regression methods we draw the following conclusions:First, the portion of vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT) within IIT is very high. This reflects the change and stream of Korea⋅Japan's income difference as it is the pattern appearing at the trade between the countries having different income levels. Second, high quality vertical intra-industry trade(HQVIIT) within VIIT is very high. This is different from the theory that home country exports low quality products in the case that trade partner's income level is higher than home country's, vice versa. Third, only the variable, "the difference between two countries market sizes", among the determinants of all three types of IIT, affects positively all three types of IIT.

재정분권화와 경제성장의 관계에 관한 실증분석

최원익 한국지방자치학회 2008 한국지방자치학회보 Vol.20 No.3

As we have surveyed the researches as of now, the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth can be classified into three categories. First, fiscal decentralization plays a positive roll to economic growth; second fiscal decentralization does a negative roll to economic growth; and third there is no relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth. These results mean that there are not enough theoretical studies on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth and the index of the degree of fiscal decentralization. Even though the ratio of revenues and expenditures of local governments are high in terms of figures, it does not mean high fiscal decentralization automatically; and the theoretical methods quantifying the qualitative aspects of fiscal decentralization are yet lacked. As this research uses four different indexes of fiscal decentralization considering various scholars' contentions and Korea' financial-special situation to overcome these current difficulty and estimates four different models, no model shows that there is statistically significant relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth.

중국 각 성ㆍ시의 의사결정조직으로서의 효율성결정요소 분석

최원익 한국동북아경제학회 2009 동북아경제연구 Vol.21 No.3

Estimating only decision making units’ efficiency can’t give important information to decision makers or policy makers; and the methods that estimate efficiency at the first stage and analyze deterministic factors of efficiency at the second stage by using OLS or Tobit have several innate problems. Therefore, this paper tries to recover these innate problems by using kernel regression at the second stage.Efficiency estimate results of each provinceㆍcity of China by the first stage analysis show that while Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong get the highest efficiency score, one, Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin get very low efficiency scores even though these cities have high population density. Efficiency’s five environmental deterministic factors are considered at the second stage; the results show that the relationship between efficiency and tax revenue per capita of each provinceㆍcity are reverse; the relationship between efficiency and extra tax revenues are positive; efficiency and expenditure divided by total revenues are reverse; efficiency and disposable income are irrelevant; and the relationship between efficiency and the number of college or upper level- educated people are positive.

임시 과업조직(T/F) 운영에 관한 연구

최원익,정홍상 한국정부학회 2015 한국정부학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2015 No.06

본 연구는 경상북도 소방본부에서 운영하는 임시 과업조직(T/F)이 조직특성에 맞게 운영되는지와 그 성과에 대하여 알아보고, 효과적인 임시 과업조직(T/F)의 운영방안을 모색하기 위한 실증 연구이다. 임시 과업조직(T/F)의 특징적인 요소를 구성원의 적합성, 낮은 복잡성, 비공식화, 분권적 의사결정으로 설정하고 경상북도 소방본부 임시 과업조직(T/F) 운영에 참여한 소방공무원을 대상으로 설문을 실시하여 분석한 결과 경상북도 소방본부에서 운영된 임시 과업조직(T/F)은 탈관료 조직의 특성을 유지하면서 운영된 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구의 결과 임시 과업조직(T/F)은 긴급상황대처, 계급체계 등으로 관료적인 성격이 매우 강한 소방행정의 유연성을 확대하고 급변하는 소방행정 환경에 대한 적응성을 강화하는데 기여하고 있음을 실증적으로 보여주고 있다.