지방세 세수추정모형에 관한 연구 - 충청북도의 경우를 중심으로 -

조택희(Taek-Hee Cho) 한국동서경제학회 2005 한국동서경제연구 Vol.17 No.1

본 논문은 지방세수입 예측모형에 대한 연구를 하였다. 특히, 지방세 중에서 중요한 부분을 차지하고 있는 취득세와 등록세를 중심으로 분석하였다. 연간 예측모형을 개발하기 위해 OLS, ARIMA, 지수평활기법의 가법 및 승법을 활용하였다. 조세 예측모형은 지방조세 구조가 예측기간 동안에는 변화되지 않는다는 가정을 하고 있다. 만약 조세체계에 어떤 변화가 발생한다면 선택된 조세예측모형은 수정되어야 한다. 모형 추정결과가 신뢰할 수 없거나 변수가 예측에 문제를 가진다면 조세추정모형은 예측을 위해 사용될 수 없다. 지방세수 예측은 지역의 사회 경제적 변수에 대한 자료획득에 한계가 많기 때문에 예측모형을 설정하는데 어려움이 있다. 모형설정의 개선에도 불구하고 합리적 결과가 도출되지 못한 모형들도 있다. 그러므로 본 연구에서 기술된 예측은 주의 깊게 참고할 필요가 있다. This work proposes on the revenue forecasting model of local taxes. Two major among local taxes, acquisition and registration taxes, are used for investigation. Annual models are developed for the forecasting functions. OLS, ARIMA and exponential smoothing are employed for the annual models. An estimation of forecasting model is assumed that the local tax structure is not changed for the forecasting periods. Therefore, the models need to be modified if there are any changes in the tax structure. The estimation of the models may not be used for the forecasts if the results of the estimation are not reliable or the variables have problems to forecast. Since the revenue forecasts of the local tax have a limitation of getting data on socio-economic variables in local level, it is not easy to forecast using OLS or ARIMA. An models have problems to produce reasonable results in spite of improving the model specification. Thus, the forecasts reported in this study may be advised to reference with caution.

수출이 지방중소기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향: 충북을 중심으로

조택희 ( Taek Hee Cho ) 한국통상정보학회 2008 통상정보연구 Vol.10 No.2

환율변동이 지역 수출가격에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 : 경기도를 중심으로

조택희(Taek-Hee Cho),이동수(Dong-Soo Lee) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.5

To match the needs of research at the local level, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the behavior of the exporting firms in Kyeong Ki Do to the change in exchange rate. We use the error correction model based on the mark-up model which makes short and long term analysis possible. The estimation results are significant for the proposed hypothesis and theory. The degree of export price pass-through for the exchange rate fluctuation is estimated as 0.227-0.421. For the short term dynamic equation model, the estimated range of the degree of export price pass-through is 0.119-0.303, which is shorter than the previous one. Chow-test is carried out to find out the structural change due to the impact of global financial crisis and the results show that overall, there are structural changes such that the degree of export price pass-through is greater after the global financial crisis and the sizes of changes are different between the two empirical models.

산업별 환율의 수출가격 전가효과에 관한 연구

조택희(Taek Hee Cho) 한국국제경제학회 1999 국제경제연구 Vol.5 No.2

본 논문은 수출재가격과 환율 간 관계에 있어서의 최근 변동을 조사하고 있으며 분석의 초점을 환율의 수출가격전가도에 두고 있다. 가격전가도를 단순히 환율변동에 대한 수출가격변화율로만 파악하지 않고, 환율변동이 중간재 가격변화를 가져와 비용변화에 의한 수출가격변화인 간접전가효과까지 고려하였다. 또한 가격전가도의 산업별 특성을 보기 위해 산업별로 가격전가도를 추정하였으며 실증분석에 사용되는 자료를 개선하였다. 가격전가도에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 수요·공급의 탄력성, 중간재수입의존도, 수출대상국에서의 시장점유율 등을 살펴보고 추정결과를 분석하였다.

지역 경제교육 직무연수의 발전방안 모색 -충북의 사례를 중심으로-

조택희 ( Taek Hee Cho ) 한국사회과교육학회 2012 시민교육연구 Vol.44 No.1

This thesis studies the present situation and the point at issue of a training program for economics teachers, and grasps real state of economy-related training program by analyzing Chungbuk`s training program based on teachers` survey, review, and data from interviews. The problems of existing training program include five ones. First and second, there is an lack and unequality of the opportunity to join the training program. Third, there is no standard of the training program. Lack of professional instructors is fourth thing. The final problem is lack of teachers` awareness. Hence, the Development Plan of a training program for economics teachers is as follows. First, the regional training program must be continually expanded. Second, the standardization of the training program is required through persistent research and development and gaining good instructor. Third, it is necessary to consider how to teach students and similar cases in the organization of subject. Lastly, a more efficient operating system of training program is not only necessary, but also teachers` attitude needs to be changed.

제조업별 외국인 직접투자 결정요인 분석

조택희 ( Taek Hee Cho ) 한국경제통상학회 2008 경제연구 Vol.26 No.2

지역주민의 생활 만족도에 영향을 미치는 결정요인 연구

조택희(Taek-Hee Cho),배민기(Min-Ki Bae) 한국콘텐츠학회 2017 한국콘텐츠학회논문지 Vol.17 No.5

본 연구는 지역 단위에서 생활만족도를 측정하고 이에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 생활만족도에 영향을 미치는 9개 영역별로 만족도를 측정하고 회귀분석을 통해 어떤 요인이 주민의 주관적으로 느끼는 생활만족도에 중요한 영향을 미치는 가를 규명하였다. 자료 수집은 7점 척도로 구성된 설문지를 통한 대면 설문조사방식을 적용하였으며 유효 설문부수는 1,619부이다. 분석 결과, 1) 전체 생활만족도는 7점 척도에서 4.433점으로 나타났다. 주거환경의 만족도가 4.911로 가장 높게 나타났으며 여가문화의 만족도가 4.155로 가장 낮게 조사되었다. 2) 영역별 회귀분석을 보면 9개 영역 중에서 ‘소득소비’ 영역이 가장 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었고 ‘노동’과 ‘생활 및 사회서비스’ 부문도 생활만족도를 형성하는데 중요요인으로 추정되었다. 3) 9개 영역별로도 회귀분석을 실시하였는데 ‘소득소비’에서는 ‘가계의 재정상태’, ‘노동’에서는 ‘근로시간’, ‘생활 및 사회서비스’에서는 ‘지역의 정치 및 행정’, ‘여가문화’에서는 ‘문화생활’, ‘보건복지’는 ‘의료시설’, ‘교육’은 ‘교육성과’, ‘교통’은 ‘도로망’, ‘주거환경’은 ‘주택’, ‘재난안전’은 ‘재난 횟수’가 가장 중요한 요인인 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구결과는 주민 삶의 질을 제고하기 위한 국가 및 지방정부의 정책시행에서 많은 시사점을 줄 수 있으리라 기대된다. The purpose of this research was to identify the effects of factors determining life satisfaction (LS) of local residents in chungbuk province. After reviewing the literature, this research selected and developed the 9 categories and specific indicators of LS. This research had obtained data through a face to face investigation using questionnaire, which surveyed 1,619 residents at 11 local governments in chungbuk province. This research analyzed the data using descriptive statistical methods and multiple linear regression method. This research found that 1) the level of overall LS had 4.433 points out of 7, the level of residential environment satisfaction had highest point (4.911), but the level of leisure culture satisfaction had lowest point (4.155), 2) in multiple regression analysis, The effect of income and consumption level on LS was highest. The degree of labor and life-social services was important factor to increase LS. The results of this study were expected to provide many implications for implementing policies to improve LS in the country and local governments.

산림치유의 숲 조성 및 운영사업의 경제적 파급효과

조택희 ( Taek Hee Cho ),이연호 ( Yeon Ho Lee ),김상미 ( Sang Mi Kim ) 한국산림과학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.4

This paper explores the economic spillover effects of forest therapy projects of Korea Forest Service,using the 2011 Input-Output Tables of Bank of Korea. We consider total expenditures on the construction of 20forest therapy bases and Baekdudaegan Forest Therapy Base, and operation of 3 forest therapy bases. Duringthe 8 years of 2010-2017, we find that these forest therapy projects generate 698 billion wons of production,456 billion wons of value-added, and 8,176 new jobs.

정책집행구조에 따른 주민과 공무원의 재난안전 인식차이 연구 : 충청북도를 중심으로

조택희 ( Cho¸ Taek-hee ),변성수 ( Byun¸ Sung-soo ),배민기 ( Bae¸ Min-ki ) 한국융합과학회 2020 한국융합과학회지 Vol.9 No.4

Pupose: The purpose of this study was to analyze the perception gap of disaster and safety between local residents (LRs) and Local government officials (LGOs), the core participant subjects in the disaster safety policies. Methods: This study selected the 3 categories such as safety situation, the feeling degree of safety (FDS) by sectors, and causes of accidents. This study had obtained data through investigation using questionnaire, which surveyed 1,290 LRs and 345 GOs at 11 local governments in chungbuk province. This research analyzed the data using descriptive statistical analysis, ANOVA. Conclusion: This study found that 1) In the case of LRs, The actual status of the accident and FDS were not related. FDS was higher in the personal safety sector than in the social safety sector. 2) In the case of GOs, In most disaster sector, GOs had a higher FDS than in other occupational groups. Compared to LRs, GOs perceived that the cause of safety accidents lies with individuals rather than society. The results were expected to provide a basis for establishing local disaster safety policies and projects to improve FDS.

지역 수출의 결정요인에 관한 연구

조택희(Taek-Hee Cho),김광민(Kwang-Min Kim),이병주(Byong-Ju Lee) 한국무역학회 2013 무역학회지 Vol.38 No.2

This study analyzes the current state and characteristics of international trade of Korea’s Chungbuk province of Korea and identifies key determinants of trade for each industry, thereby offering policy implications to promote international trade of the region. First, more than 85 percents of exports are attributed to several industries such as electricity, electronics, chemicals, precision and other machinery, and transport equipment. Second, the electricity, electronics, metal products and precision machinery are found to have high export competitiveness in terms of revealed comparative advantage, and precision machinery has become significantly competitive. Although each industry has different determinants in exports, previous export quantity is the most important determinant. Besides previous export quantity, electronics and electricity industry, the leading industry in exports, are affected by productivity while chemicals are affected by export prices and precision machinery is affected by foreign business conditions. In addition, the productivity is found to be the second most important factor in chemicals, precision machinery and transport equipment. In sum, the key determinant of exports in Chungbuk province is found to productivity.