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이준배 忠北大學校 農業科學硏究所 2003 農業科學硏究 Vol.20 No.-
This paper presented a Markov chain model that can be used for flood forecasting in the stream basins. The model depends on past information such as previous stream flow and rainfall to make forecasts The theoretical concept here is that forecasts represent the conditional probabilities on the present state of the stream flow that the next stream flow will be within specified flow intervals To evaluate of model performance, a two-criterion objective function is constructed The two criteria are the probabilities of occurrence of false alarm and missed flood In a flood forecasting setting, the main goal is to minimize both false alarm and missed flood The first-order Markov chain with exogenous rainfall(FMCR) compared favorably to FMC, SMC, and time series ARIMA models using data Buk-il gauge station in Miho stream, when evaluated in terms of the multi-objective performance criterion.
국내 골프장농약 사용에 따른 골프장 및 인근 지역의 잔류농약모니터링 조사를 통한 영향평가
이준배,조훈제,곽은지,박경훈,이민경,김현구,정현미,장희라 한국환경농학회 2018 한국환경농학회지 Vol.37 No.4
BACKGROUND: At these days, the human health and environmental concerns of pesticide used for turf grass management at golf courses in Korea have increased. The objectives of the study were to determine the pesticide residues for golf course and neighboring area and evaluate the impact moved into neighboring area of pesticides treated at golf courses. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three golf courses and neighboring areas in Korea were monitored from July to October, 2017. The soil sample collection was divided the golf course into its logical parts (such as a greens, fairways, and rough) and neighboring area soil samples were collected at three different points. The water samples of the golf course and neighboring area were collected at three different points, respectively. The pesticide residues for soil and water sample were monitored by the multi-residue screening method of 98 pesticide with HPLC-MS-MS. The concentrations of detected pesticide in soil and water samples of the golf course were in the range of 0.01∼1.26 mg/kg and 0.0001∼0.0089 mg/kg, respectively. The residue levels for detected pesticides in neighboring area were at 0.01∼0.04 mg/kg and 0.0001∼0.0029 mg/kg, respectively, well below those level in golf course. CONCLUSION: This study indicate that the pesticide residue levels of golf course and neighboring area in Korea may not a possible risk of exposure on soil and aquatic environment. For future work, more monitoring should be performed so that the evaluation data becomes more valid.