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박찬,Tatsuya, Hanaoka,Toshihiko, Masui,이동근,정태용 한국기후변화학회 2019 한국기후변화학회지 Vol.10 No.1
This study analyzes potential CO2 emission pathways in the Korean residential sector by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse. This study focuses on: 1) estimating potential emissions considering future changes in population, GDP, and temperature, 2) assessing the mitigation potential of CO2 with a mitigation measures including carbon tax. 3) discussing co-benefits of air pollutants mitigation such as NOx, SO2 in the context of climate mitigation measures in the Korean residential sector. As a result, population and GDP variation shows an overwhelming impact on CO2 emission. Climate change may help to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission in Korea due to heating and hot-water use demand decreasing. The carbon tax of 20, 50, 100, 200, 300, 500, 1000 US$/tCO2 in 2050 can reduce 1.0%, 2.5%, 3.6%, 9.6%, 12.2%, 14.1%, and 19.7% of CO2 emission respectively compared to BaU scenario of SSP2 with current technology selection behavior based on life cycle cost. There is also a benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 5-40% reductions in with CO2 mitigation measures.