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박기홍(Kihong Park) 한국경제통상학회 2021 경제연구 Vol.39 No.2
본 연구는 전역예정 군인을 대상으로 한 전직 및 취업지원교육 프로그램이 제대군인의 취업 성공에미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석을 위해 대표적인 이항 종속변수 모델인 로짓모형과전직 및 취업지원교육 프로그램 참여 여부가 내생적으로 결정될 가능성을 고려한 비모수적 성향점수매칭방법을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 전직 및 취업지원교육 프로그램의 참가 경험은 대체로 제대군인의 취업확률을 유의하게 상승시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 로짓모형은 평균 6.9%p 수준, 성향점수매칭방법을 이용한 분석은 평균 5.5%p 수준을 보였다. 로짓모형과 성향점수매칭 모형의 추정치는 유사하였으나 내생성 문제의 가능성을 고려한 성향점수매칭 분석의 경우 고용(취업)효과가 다소 작게 추정됨을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 전직 및 취업지원교육 프로그램의 성과에 대한 보다 엄밀한평가(분석)를 위해 정책 프로그램의 참가 여부에 대한 내생적인 선택의 가능성을 고려할 수 있는평가방법론의 적용이 필요함을 암시한다. Based on unique data obtained from Military Outplacement Training Institute (MOTI), this paper attempts to investigate the impact of military outplacement services on employment among Korean veterans in the civilian labor market. Relatively little attention has been paid in the literature to the transition to post-military employment for veterans in Korea. To address the endogeneity issue of training in general, this study employs the counterfactual framework via a non-parametric propensity score matching technique (PSM) in the empirical analysis. Unlike logit regression, the PSM approach allows for estimates of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The results provide evidence that military outplacement support programs increase the probability of employment among veterans in Korea, suggesting that there exist some benefits for veterans that transfer to the labor market after military service.
박기홍(Kihong Park),조아라(Ara Cho) 한국경제통상학회 2019 경제연구 Vol.37 No.3
본 연구는 대졸자직업이동경로조사(GOMS)의 최근 5개년 자료(2012GOMS~2016GOMS)를 이용하여 대졸 남성 청년층의 병역의무 이행 경험과 취업간의 관계를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석을 위해 이항 종속변수 모델 중의 하나인 로짓모형과 군 복무 변수가 내생적으로 결정될 가능성을 고려하여 준실험적 방법 중의 하나인 성향점수매칭방법을 사용하였다. 로짓모형으로 분석한 결과 대졸 남성청년층의 병역의무 이행 경험과 취업이 대체로 유의한 양(+)의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났으나, 그 효과는 미미했다. 병역의무이행자와 병역의무면제자간의 관찰되지 않는 개인의 이질성을 통제하기 위한 성향점수매칭 방법의 추정결과에 의하면, 앞서 로짓분석의 결과와는 달리 병역의무 이행 경험과 취업성과 간에는 통계적으로 유의한 관계가 발견되지 않았다. 추정계수의 크기는 로짓분석의 결과와 비교하여 대체로 감소하였으며 일부 모형의 경우 크게 감소하여 음(-)의 계수값을 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 병역의무 이행 여부에 영향을 미치는 관찰되지 않는 개인의 특성을 통제하지 않은 로짓분석결과의 해석에 유의해야 함을 의미한다. 아울러 병역의무 이행 경험이 취업성공과 같은 노동시장성과와 긍정적으로 연계될 수 있도록 국가적 차원의 지원정책이 필요함을 암시한다. Using the Graduate Occupational Mobility Survey (GOMS) data from the GOMS2012 through GOMS2016, this paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between compulsory military service (conscription) and post-service employment among young male college graduates in Korea. Based on the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the empirical results do not show any evidence that compulsory military service has an impact on employment of young male college graduate workers in the Korean labor market. These results may indicate that there are no benefits to conscription that transfer to the subsequent civilian labor market. The results presented in this paper may suggest that veteran status in Korea does not provide civilian employers with valuable information on employee productivity. Stated another way, civilian employers do not use veteran status as a productivity screening or certification device.
Kihong PARK(박기홍) 한국고용노사관계학회 2024 한국노사관계학회 학술대회 Vol.2024 No.2
To date the analysis on the wage penalty faced by over-educated doctorate holders is surprisingly scarce. Being focused on college graduates, the existing literature has primarily tended to adopt a standard OLS regression technique that allows measuring the impact of over-education on the conditional mean of the wage distribution. This paper aims to fill this gap, not only by assessing the extent to which the prevalence of over-educated doctorate holders in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields in South Korea is distributed across the wage distribution, but also by examining the extent to which their wage penalty relative to what they could have earned in a job corresponding to their level of education may have varied across the wage distribution. The main findings reveal that there is no evidence to support the notion that over-education and ability are inversely related among STEM doctorate holders in Korea. Based on the empirical evidence, this article suggests that it is an oversimplification to characterize both the incidence and the wage effects of over-education as merely reflecting lower-ability levels, at least in the Korean context.
박기홍(Kihong Park) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2018 한국군사학논집 Vol.74 No.3
It is well known that sample selection is one of the sources of a fundamental aspect of many social processes. Sample selection bias affects surveys and empirical studies and thus, without controling for these problems, leads to be biased inferences about social processes. There have been numerous methods proposed to reduce its effects, so many that researchers may be unclear which method is most suitable for their study. This article reviews several straightforward methods to take account of sample selection and applications in studies investigating the relationship between military outplacement and career transition programs and their labor market performance.
무한반복 죄수의 딜레마 게임으로 살펴본 남북한 화해·협력 가능성
박기홍 ( Park Kihong ) 한일군사문화학회 2017 한일군사문화연구 Vol.24 No.-
The tensions between North and South Korea have been sharply increased since the North Korea’s sixth nuclear test. Under such circumstances, the current paper using the game-theoretic model analyzes the possibility of reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas. Following most previous studies on defense issues particular for nuclear weapons, this study also employs a conventional prisoner dilemma model which is a standard example of game analyzed in game theory. In the analysis, the prisoner’s dilemma shows why two complete rational individuals (game players; North and South Korea) might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. However, if game players play prisoner’s dilemma more than once in succession infinitely and they remember previous actions of their opponent and change their strategy accordingly (i.e., infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma game), the situation of one-shot prisoners’ dilemma game has changed dramatically. More specifically, under the situation of infinitely prisoners’ dilemma game, the cooperation between the two Koreas can be realized. Finally, the game-theoretic analysis proposed in this article provides for three policy implications to achieve reconciliation and cooperation in the Korean peninsula as follows. First, the policy toward North Korea needs to be nice as it beings with cooperation. Second, South Korea who employs the Tit-for-Tat strategy should be generally considered to be tough by proving immediate retaliation for those who compete. Third, Tit-for-Tat with forgiveness is sometimes superior. When North Korea defects, South Korea will occasionally cooperate on the next move away to recovery from getting trapped in a cycle of defections.
박기홍 ( Kihong Park ),홍일영 ( Ilyoung Hong ) 한국지리학회 2017 한국지리학회지 Vol.6 No.1
In this study, the spatial information was acquired by using the popular rotorary-wing UAV and the image processing software was used to find a way to utilize it directly from the municipality to the land administration. A total of 195 aerial photographs were taken through the automatic mode flight for 20 minutes using the smartphone app, and mosaic images and orthophtotos were quickly generated using software that provides image processing functions in a batch processing. The usefulness of the UAV model obtained through research is that spatial decision makers can quickly acquire the latest data with high resolution and use them for civil affairs such as landuse change counseling so that they can preemptively respond to the changing demands of civil petitions to be. These advantages are expected to be utilized in the related land administration tasks such as survey of unregistered land, investigation of occupation status of national and common land as a plan for constructing participatory spatial information in the future.