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북한체제변화 연구방법론에 대한 비판적 고찰과 대안의 모색
류경아 ( Kyunga Ryu ),김용호 ( Yong Ho Kim ) 북한연구학회 2012 北韓硏究學會報 Vol.16 No.1
북한 최고지도자의 교체와 재스민혁명이라는 국제환경의 변화로 인해 북한의 체제변화에 대한 논의가 쟁점으로 재부상 하였다. 그러나 북한체제 변화에 관한 기존의 연구들은 북한의 특수성을 강조한 분석에 머무르거나 소련·중국·베트남 등 사회주의 국가들의 정치경제체제 변화와의 비교에 한정되거나 학문적 논의보다는 진보와 보수 간 정책 및 이념 경쟁의 한계를 보여왔다. 따라서이 연구는 북한체제변화 연구가 가졌던 기존의 한계를 극복하고자 최근의 체제변화에 관한 일반 연구들과 남미와 동유럽, 그리고 최근에 이르는 중동지역의 체제변화 사례들을 종합 분석하여 북한체제변화연구에 비교연구학적 측면에서 보다 일반적인 시각을 제시하고자 하였다. 사례연구를 통해 제도와 행위자들(지도자, 엘리트, 인민, 주변국가) 간의 상호작용이라는 체제변화의 주요 요소들을 이끌어낼 수 있었다. 북한은 공식제도의 신축적 변화를 통해 김일성 일가의 유전적 승계를 정당화하여 김정은의 권력을 강화하고 있으며 이 과정에서 부상하는 경쟁세력에 대한 제거나 통제도 이루어져 엘리트의 분열도 차단되고 있다. 또한 국가의 통제와 사회구조의 제약으로 인민들의 자발적 연대는 불가능할 것이다. 주변국인 중국도 북한정권과의 우호관계를 위해 인민이나 경쟁세력에 대한 지원을 막고 있으며 미국은 북한의 변화가 선행되어야 체제변화에 개입할 것으로 예상된다. 일반요소를 분석한 결과 현재 김정은의 권력집중화 현상으로 보아 급진적인 북한의 체제변화 가능성은 낮지만 정치와 경제제도의 부조화와 행위자의 상호작용 가운데 체제변화의 가능성은 상존한다. Two recent monumental changes in Asia, the North Korean hereditary succession and the Arab Spring, reinvigorate discussions on regime change in North Korea. However, previous studies on the North Korean regime change tend to be limited to general assessments of North Korea`s intrinsic political system or comparative analyses to other socialist states, such as the Soviet Union, China and Vietnam. Some of them lacks academic value, since their discussions are dominated by ideological competition between liberals and conservatives, Thus, this paper aims to provide a wholistic review on the political change in North Korea through a comprehensive study on previous works pertaining to regime change in regions, including South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East following the advent of the Jasmine Revolution. It introduces a framework of institutions and interaction among four actors - political leaders, elites, the people, and neighboring countries-as well as the prospects for the possibility of a North Korean regime change, To solidify the foundations of Kim Jong-un`s reign, North Korea has revised formal institutions and glorified the Kim family and their accomplishments. In the process, division among the elites has been obstructed by the removal of political rivals and potential threats. Any voluntary uprising by the people is highly unlikely under the North Korean authority`s control and repression. China, its most influential neighbor, has blocked support to anti-government groups and rival powers in order to maintain its friendly relationship with the Kim Jong-un regime. Moreover, another important actor, the United States, will not intervene in North Korean internal affairs unless North Korea changes its attitude. Therefore, this paper concludes that possibility of a North Korean regime change in the near future is low.
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토픽모델링으로 본 북한 3대 지도자의 정당성 주장 분석
류경아 ( Kyunga Ryu ) 연세대학교 통일연구원 2022 통일연구 Vol.26 No.2
It is unusual for North Korea, a closed personalist dictatorship, to preserve power and regime through hereditary succession. North Korea has survived in the midst of the global democratization movements and the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe. It endured a substantial economic and human security threat posed by the Great Famine in the mid-1990s and is withstanding economic sanctions imposed by the international community. The narrative of three North Korean rulers (Kim’s Family) is beyond conveying personal thoughts; it has been serving as the tool for legitimacy claim to legitimize the governing power and the regime. This study utilizes LDA Topic-modeling on 2,062 speeches, orations, statements, and letters addressed by the three rulers of North Korea from 1930 to early 2019 to provide time series analysis on how the seven sources of North Korean regime legitimacy have changed over the period and further contributed to the regime survival. I categorize the seven sources of legitimacy claim that North Korean rulers have been relying on, namely, (1) National Foundation Medal, (2) ruling ideology, (3) nationalism, (4) personalism, (5) performance, (6) international engagement, and (7) formal institution. As the regime went through hereditary succession, fewer sources of legitimacy claim became available for the successor. Therefore the reliance on the founding father Kim Il-sung became stronger through hereditary succession.
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The Dilemma of a Pro-Business State
Kyunga Ryu(류경아),Yeonho Lee(이연호) 충남대학교 사회과학연구소 2013 사회과학연구 Vol.24 No.3
The Lee Myung-bak government put economic growth in his main agenda which aimed a trickle-down effect through “business-friendly.” His government offered various benefits such as deregulations and tax-cut to chaebol. Lee government policy toward big businesses is divided into three periods: The “deregulation period” from 2008 to first half of 2009; “transition period” that focused on protection of working class and large and small companies from second half of 2009 to mid-2010; and “fair competition and controlling inflation period” that strengthened chaebol restrictions and administrative guidance from 2011 to 2012. All these changes emerged because the trickle-down effect failed and the demand of economic democratization rose before the election in 2012. When civil society were relatively excluded, the policy change was followed by the conflict within the ruling party due to the election loss and policy issues. Economic policy of Lee government eventually became the target of criticism for both working class and capital which means that the government’s autonomy is seriously compromised. Despite the policy change, Lee government could not stop the pro-business policies even in order to fulfill his main agenda of economic growth.
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