충북 산업연관분석 연구

김종구(Kim Joung Gu) 한국동서경제학회 2005 한국동서경제연구 Vol.16 No.2

본 연구의 목적은 2000년 충북지역 산업연관표를 작성을 통하여 지역의 각종 투자우선순위 및 지역개발사업의 타당성 평가를 위한 기초자료를 제공에 있다. 이를 위하여 2003년 12월 한국은행에서 발행한 2000년 전국 산업연관표를 바탕으로 지역 산업연관표를 작성 하였다. 특히 지금까지 충북지역을 대상으로 한 산업연관분석에서 소홀히 다룬 생산자 거래표, 지역내 거래표, 수입 거래표 등 기본 거래표 및 투입계수표, 지역내 투입 계수표, 수입투입계수표 등 기본 계수표 작성에 충실함으로써 지역의 활용도를 제고시켰다. 충북 산업연관표를 작성하기 위해 그 기본 체계는 2004년 한국은행에서 발간한 「산업연관분석 해설」을 바탕으로 하나, 산업분류는 지역에서 가급적 다양한 부문에서 활용 가능하도록 산업분류를 확대하며, 이를 위하여 전국 404개 산업분류를 사용하였다. 이렇게 작성된 충북 지역 산업연관표는 H-S조건을 만족하는 것으로 밝혀졌으며 이를 통한 경제분석은 경제적으로 의미 있는 결과가 된다. 충북지역 산업연관분석 결과를 토대로 충북지역에서는 17. 전자부품, 영상 음향통신부문, 10. 화합물 및 화학제품 부문 등 제조업 분야와 관광산업이 성장 유망한 산업으로 밝혀져 이 분야의 집중투자가 필요하다. 또한 향후 보다 과학적이며 객관적인 산업연관표 작성과 이의 활용을 위해서는 개인적인 연구보다는 충청북도에서 가칭(가칭) 지역통계분석센터의 설치가 요구된다. The objective of the research which it sees leads and 2000 Chung Buk regional Input-output tables drawing up the fundamental data for the various investment priority of Chung Buk and the propriety evaluation of the regional development enterprise there is to provision. It will reach and to respect 2000 nationwide input-output tables which it publishes from 2003 December Bank of Korea input-output tables with character it drew up. Producer transaction table where it treats specially until now negligently from input-output analysis of the Chung Buk region and intra-regional transaction table, import transaction table back basics transaction tables and input coefficient table and intra"regional input coefficient table, import input coefficient tables back basic coefficient drawing up it does to be complete with it did there to be a possibility of doing a many application from the Chung Buk region. The basic system of the hazard which draws up the Chung Buk industrial input-output tables from 2004 Bank of Korea published "input-output analysis explanation" does with character. The industrial classification from region if possible application in order to be possible from the section which is various, will magnify an industrial classification, it will reach and 404 industrial classifications of the Bank of Korea to respect it used Chung Buk regional input-output tables where it is drawn up like this the low of satisfaction will come to reveal H-S conditions with the thing, it will reach and the economic analysis which leads became the result which economically is meaning. Chung Buk regional input-output analytical result with base from Chung Buk region 11. Electronic component and image sound communication section, 10. The chemical compound and chemical product section back manufacturing industry field and sightseeing industry come to reveal growth with the industry which is promising and the intensive investor of this field it is necessary. Also it is scientific about hereafter compared to and objective industrial input-output tables drawing up and different meaning application from hazard provisional name (provisional name) the establishment of the 『Region statistical analysis center』 is demanded from Chung-Chong-Buk-Do where the personal research is not.

국제통상 : 한국의 무역상대국간 무역수지와 환율간의 장기관계분석: 패널분석의 적용

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 국제지역학회 2010 국제지역연구 Vol.14 No.1

While it is often assumed that a country`s trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific industry. This paper is to examine the long-run relationships between trade balance and real exchange rate using bilateral data of SITC 10 Industry Classification for Korea vis-a-vis her trading partners Indonesia, India, China, Japan on a quarterly basis over the period of 1999Q1 to 2008Q4. I applied the recent panel cointegration technique to reduce the small sample problems and improving power performance of the relevant estimation and inference procedures. The results reveal evidence of the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Indonesia 2 industries, India 5 industries, Japanese 4 industries, Chinese 6 industries. Whole group`s cointegration statistic of India, China, Japan was supported Marshall-Lerner Condition but Indonesia was rejected.

국제경제 : 한,일 원/엔 실질 환율과 주가와의 관계 분석 -한국의 자유변동환율제도 실시 이후를 중심으로-

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 국제지역학회 2009 국제지역연구 Vol.13 No.2

This paper empirically investigates a long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships for exchange rate and stock prices in Korea and Japan from January 1998 to July 2008. Because using monthly data in my study, analyzes unit root test and VEC model including seasonality to overcome bias that happen in seasonal adjustment. The empirical evidence suggests that exists strong evidence supporting the long-run cointegration relationships between exchange rates and stock prices of the Korea and Japan. This implies that it is possible to predict one market from another for both countries, which seems to violate the efficient market hypothesis. In the long-run a negative relationship running from the KRW/JPY real exchange rate to the stock prices of Korea strongly argues for the traditional approach.

실질실효환율 변동성이 우리나라 상품수지와 여행수지에 미치는 영향

김종구(Joung-Gu Kim) 한국무역학회 2007 무역학회지 Vol.32 No.1

This study analyzed effect that foreign income, domestic income, real effective exchange rate and volatility of real effective exchange rate gets in commercial balance and travel balance using data 1989 from first quarter to the 2005 fourth quarter. Test result, volatility of real effective exchange rate commercial balance positive effect reach, but was proved that is exerting contradictory influence on travel balance. Foreign income variable and domestic income variable in commercial balance and travel balance equally foreign income variable positive(+) effect that domestic income exerts negative(-) effect but real effective exchange rate variable and volatility variable of real effective exchange rate exert different effect appear. That is, real effective exchange rate exerts positive(+) influence on commercial balance, but exert negative(-) influence on travel balance, and volatility of real effective exchange rate in commercial balance positive(+) effect that exert negative(-) influence on travel balance appear.

국제통상 ; 동태 패널모형을 이용한 대일 상품수지 결정요인 분석

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ),황신모 ( Shin Mo Hwang ) 국제지역학회 2011 국제지역연구 Vol.15 No.2

This paper analyzes balance of goods for a panel data of 56 industry classification in the MTI from 1980 to 2009. This study also develops the equilibrium adjustment process, which is a trade-off between the adjustment costs towards equilibrium costs for balance of goods and the cost of being in disequilibrium. In this framework, the GMM estimation procedure is used to estimate this dynamic panel model consistently. It is found that equilibrium balances of goods in Korean adjust to the speed is very slow to 0.0389. because of this is necessary to adjust the equilibrium goods balance as the cost of goods balance deficit is larger than by the cost. In addition, the real income elasticity for goods balance of resin in Japan and Korea, the real income elasticity 4.38168 and -0.835225, respectively, the marks were consistent with economic theory. The exchange rate elasticity of goods balance in japan to 0.478435 were found in the inelastic.

국제경제 ; 우리나라 지방자치제하 지방재정지출이 지역경제성장에 미친 영향

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 국제지역학회 2008 국제지역연구 Vol.12 No.1

This paper analyzes the effect of regional public expenditure on the regional economic growth in a local self-governing system of Korea. I use the panel data of the fifteen local provinces in Korea during 1995-2005 period. Estimating the neoclassical school growth model incorporating the local public expenditure as one of production factor. Also, divide by high growth region and low growth region according to regional economic growth speed difference and analyzed growth rate differential factor between high growth region and low growth region. I discovered that regional public expenditure variable exerts effect that is positive to regional economic growth and convergence speed in this paper.

원/엔환율 변동성의 특성과 대일 무역수지함수 추정

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 국제지역학회 2007 국제지역연구 Vol.11 No.3

This study evaluated balance of trade function toward Japan with special quality of won/yen exchange rate change in the Korea. Estimated volatility of won/yen exchange rate in the Korea by TARCH(1, 1) Model. As a result, daily nominal won/yen exchange rate and a quarter year won/yen exchange rate displayed asymmetry special quality that raise in exchange rate exerts bigger influence on the market than fall in exchange rate news. Based on the test for balance of trade function results, I accept the hypothesis of a stationary balance of trade and Japan GDP differential, and hypothesis of a stationary balance of trade and real exchange rate differential, but I rejected the hypothesis of stationary balance of trade and our country GDP differential. Exchange rate volatility excluded in cointegration space, but was proved that was absorbed and was adjusted by most exchange rate volatility in case of trade balance imbalance happened. The other side, LRTB, LRJGDP, LRER variables are included to cointegration space, but was decided that was weakly exogenous variables.

국제경제 : 중국 지역경제성장과 지역경제력격차에 대한 연구; 쿠즈네츠 곡선 검증을 중심으로

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 국제지역학회 2013 국제지역연구 Vol.17 No.3

In this Paper, i study the Kuznets inverse U-hypothesis about the relationship between regional economic growth and regional economic disparities in China`s eastern, central and western regions for the period 1980-2011. The economic disparity changed according to time, so the empirical test model used the polynomial distributed lag model. That the results of the empirical analysis, inter-regional absolute economic disparity of China`s Eastern, Central and Western regions has increased over the long term, but the relative economic disparity between regions of China`s supported the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis. The economic disparities in the regions, the absolute economic disparity in the eastern regions has reached the peak of recent, the relative economic disparity supported the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis. in middle regions, Absolute economic disparities in the middle region increased in the long term in a U-shape, the relative economic disparity in the middle regions has declined continuously in the form of a downward-sloping. The western regions, the relative and the absolute economic disparities increased along with economic growth. Policy implications based on the results of the empirical analysis, the medium-and long-term regional balanced policy of the Chinese government has made the results of mitigation of economic disparities between regions in the eastern, central and western regions, but in recent middle?western regions rapid growth has highlighted a new problem of growing disparities between regions within the regions of these.

지역 수출이 지역경제에 미치는 파급효과

김종구(Joung-Gu Kim) 한국무역학회 2008 무역학회지 Vol.33 No.5

Purpose of this study is that regional export(foreign countries export and domestic inter-regional export) analyzes ripple effect on Chungcheong regional economy taking advantage of special quality of inter-regional input-output table in 2003 that draw up The Bank of Korea's in 2007 To achieve this study purpose, I make a production induce coefficient table of export[(I-A<SUP>d</SUP>)?¹ㆍY<SUP>C</SUP><SUB>iE</SUB>, (I-A<SUP>d</SUP>)?¹ㆍY<SUP>kC</SUP><SUB>il</SUB>)], value added induce coefficient table [A<SUP>v</SUP>(I-A<SUP>d</SUP>)?¹ㆍY<SUP>C</SUP><SUB>iE</SUB>, A<SUP>v</SUP>(I-A<SUP>d</SUP>)?¹ㆍY<SUP>kC</SUP><SUB>il</SUB>), employment induce coefficient table [T<SUB>w</SUB>(I-A)?¹ㆍY<SUP>C</SUP><SUB>iE</SUB>, T<SUB>w</SUB>(I-A)?¹ㆍY<SUP>kC</SUP><SUB>il</SUB>] etc.. after integrate 77 parts inter-regional input-output table of The Bank of Korea by great classification to 28 industries parts and 4 industry parts and export analyzed ripple effect on Chungchong regions.

우리나라 지역 인적자본 추정과 지역경제 성장요인 분석

김종구 ( Joung Gu Kim ) 한국경제통상학회 2007 경제연구 Vol.25 No.4