Finding solutions for furthering regional cooperation in Northeast Asia : focusing on Korea, Japan, and China

이충희 Graduate School of International Studies, Korea Un 2017 국내석사

To analyze how regional cooperation strategies for Northeast Asia’s regionalism initiated by governments of three major countries ,Korea, Japan, and China, have been chronologically evolved within the context of regional dynamics and international paradigm shift, this thesis examined how, when, why Northeast Asia’s regional institutionalization has been advanced to some degree on the basis of the recent literatures on Northeast Asia’s regionalism - the Critical Juncture Framework model and Political Will model. The thesis conducted a comparative analysis, with three variables: Security-related Crisis (SRC), Financially induced Crisis (FIC), and Political Will (PW), to find out which factor has mainly affected the evolution of Northeast Asia’s regionalism. The thesis classified every regional cooperation strategies of three countries into three different categories: SRC, FIC, and PW based on the initial condition of each strategy whether it was a product of crisis or top leader’s political leadership, analyzes whether each regional cooperation strategy brought about any variations in regional institutional arrangement or not, and figures out which variable among three is the most effective one in explaining the evolution of Northeast Asia’s institutionalization at the regional level. Finally, the thesis, based on the comparative analysis, concluded that Political Will (PW) has been the most effective factor to gear up Northeast Asia’s regionalism.

東北아시아 經濟協力에 관한 硏究 : 韓國, 日本, 中國을 中心으로

김재훈 연세대학교 경제대학원 2001 국내석사

For the past half a century, Northeast Asia has been the region of different ideology and the acute dispute of the ideology led some nations to be divided. Nevertheless with industrialization and export increase of countries like Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China during 1970s & 1980s, the region could set the foundation for rapid economic growth. This has been brought about, not only by the take-off of ANIES, but also by the sustained fast growth of the Chinese economy since the beginning of the 1990s. From 1970 through 1999, the economic annual growth rate of the Northeast Asian countries was more than twice as high as that of the global economy. Now the region's economy becomes as big as 20% of world economy. The growth potential of Northeast Asia's economy is in its dynamic and mutual complementary production factors. The plenty of capital and advanced technology of Japan, the production skills and fairly developed technology of ANIES, the potential market, labor power and natural resources of China, the surplus labor power of North Korea, natural resources in the Russian Fareast, etc, if these are worked in together, its growth and weight in world economy will become bigger. For its constant economic growth, it needs reconciliation and expansion of mutual cooperation among the countries in this region. Moreover the needs for economic integration even in Northeast Asia is getting bigger in order to act against expansion of regional bloc of world economy. However looking into inside of the each country in the region, there are some problems to be solved. Political issues between China and Taiwan, the system and economic problems of North Korea and so on are the restrictions on realizing economic community of Northeast Asia. Therefore cooperation among major 3 actors in the region, Korea, Japan and China is needed with priority and strengthening the cooperation will become the basis of economic integration of total countries in Northeast Asia. The study analyzed current trade, mutual reliance, revealed comparative advantage and investments to see the economic relations among the 3 countries. It shows the trades among the countries have been rapidly increasing and moving to high intensity of trade. Due to wider opening of China and rapid increase of foreign direct investment, RCA will renew the structure of each country's industry in Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, market-led functional integration among the 3 countries will proceed and the needs for institutional economic integration will expand even more. In addition, expansion of regional bloc of world economy is encouraging the needs for economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. The pattern of the economic integration should be open-regionalism and mutual benefits, considering that Korea and Japan have economic system heavily depending on export and the 3 countries are on different level in economic development. However the way promoting economic integration should be step-by-step approach and it should focus on activation of trade and investment on the first stage. The forming of economic integration among the 3 countries will greatly affect most of the countries in Northeast Asia and the economic growth of this region will promote its weight in world economy. Furthermore according to the World Bank, the Chinese Economic Area is becoming the fourth growth pole of the world economy in near future. From this, it can be seen that two of the four growth poles in the 21st century will be in Northeast Asia. Therefore Korea should seek a proper role for the 21st century in the center of Northeast Asia. As Korea is located geographically in the center of Northeast Asia, it can become a center of economic and cultural exchanges in the future if it plays a role in proper way. In order to realize this potential role, it is necessary to establish logistics infrastructure to become center of logistics distribution connecting the ocean to the continent and the continent to the ocean. And also it should fit its systems and regulations to fulfill its role as global business center focusing on the "Yellow See rim economic sphere" and the "East See rim economic sphere". To prepare for increase of logistics distribution by expansion of economic cooperation in Northeast Asia, Korea should build a world-class airport, hub port and ground transport system connecting the railroad to North Korea and Siberia. Modernizing port facility for freight, financial institutions, exhibition halls, conference halls & information centers should be built to make the city as center of Northeast Asia's transportation, communication, trade, investment and finance. And also to make the Korean peninsula as center of international trade, free trade zone, duty-free zone and non-visa cosmopolitan area should be also expanded by stages. Furthermore if the Korean peninsula is going to function well as the center, nationalism or antagonism to foreign investment and their culture must not exist and on the contrary open and proactive mind is needed.

Building A Military Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia : Feasibility and Design

정경영 The University of Maryland at College Park 2005 해외박사

본 연구의 목적은 미, 중, 일, 러, 남북한으로 구성된 동북아 군사안보협력레짐의 구축 가능성을 검토하고 설계를 하는데 있다. 본 연구를 하게 된 두 가지 이유는 첫째, 왜 동북아 주요국가들은 유럽이 유럽안보협력기구 (OSCE) 와 유럽안보방위정책 (ESDP)에서 추진해온 것 처럼 역내 안보협의기구를 아직까지 발전시키지 못하고 있는가를 발굴하기 위해서였따. 둘째 이유는 지난 10여년에 걸쳐서 군사안보협력분야 정책입안자로서 개인적인 경험과 관찰에 의하면, 동북아도 역내 새로운 군사안보레짐을 재도화할 수 있는 잠재력을 갖고 있따고 확신하기 때문이다. 레짐을 창설하기 위해서는 역내 국가들이 이러한 개념을 실현하기 위해 공동으로 전략을 발전시킬 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서 동북아 역내 안보력짐의 이론적 틀을 개발하기 위해서 현실주의와 자유주의를 포함하여 국제정치의 핵심이론들을 검토하였다. 연구 결과 신자유주의적 제도주의 이론이 동북아 안보레징 구축에 가장 용이하게 적용할 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 국제관계의 목적이 국가권력을 극대화 하는 데 있다는 현실주의 시각은 잠재적 역내 갈등을 해결하는 데 근본적인 한계가 있음을 비판하였다. 현실주의와는 반대로, 신자유주의적 제도주의를 정착시키는 것이 동북아에 존속하고 있는 냉전구조에서 비롯된 취약성과 제한사항을 극복할 수 있다고 보았다. 그 이유는 신자유주의적 제도주의가 공동으로 수용할 수 있는 규범, 원칙, 규육과 의사결정 절차들 통해서 화해와 협력을 확산시킬 수 있기 때문이다. 안보레징 구축 조건으로서 현존하는 안보협의체의 발전 수준, 안보협력에 영향을 미치는 역내 국가간의 경제적 상호의존성의 수위, 공동위협으로 인식되는 초국가적 위협 수준, 그리고 새로운 안보레짐 구축에 대한 주요국가들의 지원 등 4가지를 제시하고 있다. 첫째, 새로운 역내 안보레짐의 근간이 될 수 있는 기존의 안보협의체로서 아세안역내안보포럼 (ARF), 아테안보협력위원회 (CSCAP), 동북아협력대회 (NEACD) 와 북한핵 문제를 다루는 6자회담 등은 역내 국가들이 대화의 습관을 축적해 왔다는 관점에서 이미 괄목할만한 진전을 이루었다. 둘째, 역내 국가간 경제적 상호의존의 역동성은 통합과 협력을 요구하고 있으며, 무역과 직접투자, 시베리아 원유와 가스의 공동개발 추진, 남북한간 경제협력을 통해 지속적인 경제성장과 공동번영을 가능케 함으로써 긍정적으로 비동제 인구이동, 자연재해, 그리고 환경악화 등 협력적 안보정책을 요구하는 초국가적 위험이 전통적이고 재래식 위험보다 더 심각한 도전이 되고 있다는 점이다. 이러한 초국가적 위험은 각국이 개별적으로 해결할 수 없으며 다자틀에 의해서 해결해야만 한다. 마지막으로, 동북아 주요 국가들은 1990년대에 다자간 안보협력이 역내 안정 뿐만 아니라 각국의 국익에도 저해적인 요소로 인식하는 경향이 있었다. 그러나, 9.11이후 탈탈냉전 상황하에서 각국은 테러와 북핵문제를 포함하여 안보 공동이슈를 해결하기 위해 다자간 협력을 선호하는 역내의 새로운 분위기가 조성되고 있다는 점을 들 수 있다. 본 연구를 통해서 안보협력이 일방적인 접근이나 군비경쟁과 쌍무동맹보다 역내분쟁 해결시 보다 효과적이고 재원이 적게 소요된다는 결론에 도달했다. 동북아의 새로운 군사안보협력 레짐을 구축하기 위해 필요한 실질적인 조치는 무엇인가가 본 연구의 마지막에서 다루고자 하는 분야다. 동북아 안보레짐인 안보레짐 구축을 위해서는 동북아 국가들이 보다 우호적인 협력적 안보환경을 조성하는 것이 핵심이다. 안보정책입안자, 국회의원과 전문학자로 구성된 역내 국가들의 지식인 계층들은 국내적 공감대 확대와 새로운 지역내 합의를 도출하기 위해 주도적 역할을 수행해야 한다. 여론주도계층들간 다자간 네트워크를 작동시킬 때 상호오해, 판단착오와 잘못된 평가를 최소화할 수 있으며 역내 분쟁 가능성을 감소시킬 수 있다. 둘째, 군사적인 수준에서 역내 주요국가들은 세계적으로 쌍무, 다자간 안보군사교류 및 협력 프로그램을 확대시켜 나가야 한다. 이러한 협력 프로그램은 국방장관 회담을 포함하여 윤번제 지휘구조에 입각한 동북아 다국적인 사령부 창설을 망라할 수 있다. 셋째, 강력한 리더십을 발휘하지 않는 한 동북아의 새로운 안보체제로 진전시켜 나갈 수가 없다. 이러한 관점에서 북핵문제를 다루는 6자회담은 새로운 역내안보 구상의 근간이 될 수 있을 것이다. 따라서 6자회담은 동북아 국가들이 다자틀에 의해 안보 공동관심사를 다룰 수 있는가를 판단하는 중대한 시험대가 될 것이다. 본 연구는 신자유주의적 제도주의와 안보협력이 동북아 지역에서 작동이 가능하며, 역내 모든 국가들에게 가장 큰 이익이 될 것이라는 결론을 내리고 있다. 유럽의 안보협력 모델이 적절한 교훈과 시사점을 제공해 주고 있으니, 동북아의 역사적 전통, 문화적 염원, 경제적 역동성, 그리고 인터넷의 보급은 역내 특유의 역동성에 부응하는 협력안보를 요구하고 있다. 결론적으로 동북아 군사안보협력레짐 구축은 가능하며, 미래의 전망은 밝다는 점이다. 역내 안보레짐을 구축하기 위해 한, 미, 일 3자간의 전략대화가 이미 개시되었다. 냉전기간 동안 그리고 현재까지도 동북아의 안보환경은 갈등과 적대감, 강대국의 위세, 상충되는 국익추구를 특징으로 하고 있다. 21세기 초 역내 국가의 지도자들은 역내안보의 틀을 화해, 상호존중, 권한의 균점, 상호이익으로 상징되는 새로운 동북아 협력안보질서로 변환시켜야 한다. 이러한 목적을 달성할 수 있는 현실적인 전학이 안보레짐을 구축하는 것이다. This study explores the feasibility and design of a military security cooperation regime in Northeast Asia consisting of the U.S, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas. The author undertook this research for two primary reasons : first, to determine why key actors in Northeast Asia have not yet developed regional security arrangements like Europe has demonstrated in the Organization for Security Cooperation and Defense Policy. Second, based on personal experiences and observations as a policy maker in the military security cooperation area over the ten years, which has included extensice contacts with foreign colleagues, the author is confident that the region. To create such a regime, key regional actors must develop a joint strategy to implement the concept. To develop a theoretical framework for a regional security regime in Northeast Asia the study examines some precalent theories of intermational relations, notably realism and liveralism. Research findings confirm that neoliveral institutionalism is the approach most compatible with the goal of building a regional security regime. The study argues that realism - the theory which that the purpose of international relations is to maximize state power - has inherent weakness in terms of resolving potential regional conflicts. In contrast to realism, neoliberal institutionalism could overcome the vulneravilities and strains built into the Cold War structure which still prevail in Northeast Asia. Neoliberalism institutionalism holds out the promise of reconciliation and cooperation by inculcating commonly accepted norms, principles, rule, and decision-making procedures. The study identifies four conditions necessary to the formation of a security regime in Northeast Asia : the evolution of existing security arrangements ; regional economic interdependence with spill over security cooperation ; transnational threats as a set of commonly perceived threats ; and support of key actors for a new security regime. First, existing security cooperation attangements, which may serve as the basis for a new regional security regime including ASEAN Regional Forum, the Council for Security Cooperation in Asia-Pacific, the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue, and the Six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program, have already made great strides in terms of accumulating the habits of dialogue among regional powers. Second, the dynamics of economic interdependence have encouraged the states of the Northeast Asia region to intergrate and cooperate with one another. Sustained economic cooperation between the two Koreas, has positively spilled over into regional security cooperation. Third, Transnational threats, which call for cooperative security policies, include terrorism, international crime, infectious diseases, unregulated population movements, natural disasters, and environment degradation, pose greater challenges than do traditional, conventional threats because they cannot be mastered by states action individually but should be resolved in a multilateral framework. Finally, in the 1990s the key actors in Northeast Asia tended to perceive multinational security cooperation as detrimental to both regional stability and their national interests. In the post-post Cold War era, however, particularly after the 9.11,a new spirit has arisen in the region in favor of multilateral cooperation to resolve security issues such as terrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The findings of current study indicate that security cooperation is a more effective, less solution to regional conflicts in Northeast Asia than either unilateral approach or arms races and bilateral allianes. The final section of the study analyzes the practical measures needed to construct a new Northeast Asia can be implemented along three basic lines of strategy. First, to create a more favorable security cooperative environment is the most important area for the success of the security regime building. A multinational epistemic community as the basis of a new regional consensus as well as domestic consensus. As a multi=tier network among opinion leaders in the region emerges, misunderstanding, miscalculation, and misinterpretation will be ameloirated and the chances of regional conflict reduced. Second, on the military level key actors should systematically expand bilateral and multilateral security and military exchanges and cooperative programs. Such cooperative programs shoulc include degense minister talks and the establishment of a regional multinational headquarters with a rotating command structure. Third, no movement toward a new security system in Northeast Asia can be made without strong leadership. In this regard, the six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program could form the backbone of new regional security architecture. The Six Party Talks, then, are an essential test of whether key actors in the region can deal with security issues on a multilateral basis. The study concludes that an approach of neoliberal institutionalism and security cooperation is practicable and will entail the mosr benefits for Northeast Asia. Althogh the European model of security cooperative offers relevant lessons and insights, Northeast Asia's distinct historical heritage, cultural aspirations, and economic dynamics call for an approach to cooperative security that is responsive to the unique dynamics of the area. In conclusion, the Northeast Asia Military Security Cooperation Regime is feasible and has a bright future. The U.S - Japan - South Korea trilateral Strategic Talks have already initiated in building a regional securith regime. During the era of the Cold War and even today, the security environment of Northeast Asia has been charaterized by conflict, animosity, Great Power dominance, and contradictory interests. In the early twenty -first century, leaders in the region must transform the region into a new security order exemplified by reconciliation, mutual respect, power sharing, and complementary interests. A realistic strategy to achieve the goal is to build a security regime.

Institutionalizing regional environmental governance in Northeast Asia : roles of actors, knowledge and interests

남상민 University of Melbourne 2002 해외박사

This thesis analyzes the institutional process of environmental governance in Northeast Asia by focusing on the dynamics of two main governance factors (national interest and knowledge) and the roles of nonstate actors (international organizations and nongovernmental organizations) in the process. In exploring these governance determinants, this thesis examines the current state of regional governance in Northeast Asia and transboundary environmental governance in the Tumen River Area; the political and institutional implications of major governance mechanisms; links between the progress in understanding of environment problems and the political process of governance; and the potential and limitations of nonstate actors. Two forms of interdependence in Northeast Asia make up the basis of regional environmental governance: ecological interdependence, what links countries geographically and socio-economically in relation to regional marine and atmospheric environments, and complex interdependence, growing webs of political, social and economic interactions, which are the main driving force for institutionalizing collective actions on regional environmental problems. Although states are now politically motivated to create multilateral environmental mechanisms in the forms of meetings and regimes, different national interests, where foreign policy often overrides environmental policy, have delayed the institutionalization of these mechanisms. State actors and their national interests mainly shape the form and content of regional governance in Northeast Asia, but nonstate actors and scientific knowledge also have decisive roles. International organizations have functioned as the main catalysts of various governance mechanisms although their performance declines due to limited administrative capacities. New to the scene, NGOs have not traditionally acted as stakeholders of formal mechanisms, but they have started to expand the scope of environmental governance by executing their own domains of governance. Despite the existence of governance mechanisms, Northeast Asia has insufficient consensual knowledge of the state of their regional environmental problems as demonstrated by varying results of scientific assessments. Building epistemic communities of scientists and other nonstate actors (international organizations and NGOs) is vital to promote the objective role of knowledge in institutional processes, especially in light of the asymmetry between knowledge and each governance mechanism and the politicization of scientific knowledge to justify national interests. The Tumen River Area also exemplifies the pattern of regional environmental governance in Northeast Asia with few exceptions. Despite formal devices of governance addressing transboundary environmental issues such as biodiversity and the pollution of the Tumen River, the outcomes have been meager. Heterogeneities in national interest have essentially impeded governance implementation, while the participation and capacities of local actors have often been restricted despite their importance to the narrowly defined region. International organizations have successfully initiated multilateral mechanisms for environmental governance but face difficulties in implementing them due partly to their organizational nature. Although NGOs mostly remain outside the formal mechanisms of governance, they at least have been able to take concrete actions to protect the environment by acting independently in many instances. This thesis concludes with theoretical and empirical lessons for future discourse.

一带一路倡议下东北亚各国能源合作对中国能源安全的影响研究

리창지 경남대학교 대학원 2024 국내박사

Since the 1990s, Northeast Asia has engaged in energy cooperation due to its geographical proximity and complementary advantages in energy supply and demand, technology, and funding. At present, the region has achieved certain results in regional energy trade and investment, construction of oil and gas transportation pipelines, construction of bilateral dialogue and exchange platforms, and energy technology cooperation. Especially after the "the Belt and Road" initiative proposed by China, it has further promoted the cooperation process of surrounding countries in the energy field. However, energy cooperation in Northeast Asia has always faced many challenges, such as competitive games in the energy field, lack of strategic mutual trust, interference from foreign powers, and imperfect theoretical system of regional energy cooperation. These obstacles have led to slow progress in energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. Compared to regional energy cooperation in North America and Europe, the level of cooperation in Northeast Asia is relatively low, and the cooperation methods are single, making it difficult to meet the needs of regional energy security. China, Japan, and South Korea, the three major energy consuming and importing countries, still face serious energy supply security issues and Asian premium issues, while Russia is also facing energy export security issues. Therefore, it is necessary to promote energy cooperation in Northeast Asia to ensure the energy security of regional countries. In recent years, the global energy situation has undergone multiple significant changes, which have gradually revealed greater insecurity factors in the energy market fluctuations, providing new goals for energy security in Northeast Asia and prompting countries to demonstrate regional integration in energy cooperation on a global scale. Firstly, the increase in oil and gas production in North America has strengthened Russia's willingness to deepen energy cooperation with Northeast Asian countries. Secondly, the global low oil prices provide opportunities for energy reserve construction and cooperation in Northeast Asia. Thirdly, diversifying energy imports in Northeast Asia can help promote the development and cooperation of the region's energy finance market. Fourthly, investment and development cooperation in shale oil and gas have also added new content to energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. In addition, the remarkable achievements of the "the Belt and Road" initiative proposed by China in the past decade have also provided new ideas and impetus for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. The author believes that in view of the current unstable international situation and the frequent occurrence of the global "Black Swan Incident", it is necessary for Northeast Asian countries to reconsider how to further promote the development of regional integrated energy cooperation based on the current development status of Northeast Asia and the demand for energy security and a favorable energy cooperation environment. Therefore, this article proposes two possible implementation methods for intra regional cooperation, aiming to promote further development of energy cooperation in Northeast Asia through multiple channels. This article conducts in-depth research and detailed elaboration on each path. 20世纪90年代至今,东北亚地区各国因地理位置邻近、能源供需、技术、资金等方面的优势互补,开启了各国间能源合作。目前,该地区在区域内的双边对话和能源交流平台的建设、输油气管网的建设、能源贸易与投资的建设、能源科技技术合作等多个方面均获得了相应的成果。尤其在中国提出的“一带一路”倡议后,进一步加快了东北亚周边各国在能源领域的合作步伐。 然而,东北亚地区的能源合作进程和效果,一直面临着诸多挑战,如能源领域在该区域内的竞争博弈、国与国之间缺乏战略互信、受到区域外大国的强力干扰以及区域内能源合作理论体系的尚且不完善等缺陷。东北亚区域内各国的能源合作因这些障碍而迟迟难以得到进一步的突破,整体发展较为缓慢。东北亚地区的各国在能源合作方面的可上升空间相较于欧洲地区和北美地区还较大,而且,东北亚地区各国在当前阶段能够选择的合作方式仍然是较为单一的,地区能源安全需要无法得到充分的满足。例如,日本,韩国,中国目前所面对的能源供应安全问题仍然是较为严峻的,此外中东进口能源在亚洲地区存在着较严重的溢价问题,所以推进东北亚地区各国的能源合作是有重要价值的。 全球能源形势在近年来出现了多个维度的巨大变化,使得能源交易市场的波动日渐显露出更巨大的不稳定因素,也为发展东北亚地区的能源安全立定了新的奋斗目标,并且促使各国在全球能源发展进程内面对区域一体化的能源合作形式,表现出强烈的迫切的意愿。首先,东北亚各国和俄罗斯在北美地区的油气产量呈现逐年递增的趋势的影响下,在能源合作方面有了更强的意愿;其次,对于东北亚地区而言,全球油价的持续走低为其能源储备的强化建设和合作建设带来了重要的突破口;第三,能源进口标的多元化,能够推动东北亚地区能源市场的进一步协作发展;第四,页岩油气项目是东北亚地区能源合作项目中的新项目。在“一带一路”倡议中,在中国及沿线各国近十年的努力下,其卓越成果更为东北亚地区的能源合作开辟出新的思路和动力。 笔者认为,鉴于当前国际局势不稳定状况,全球“黑天鹅事件”频发,根据东北亚区域各国发展现状对相对有利的能源合作环境以及能源安全的需求程度展开讨论,东北亚各国对于如何让区域一体化能源合作的进程得到进一步的加快需给予更高的关注。为此,本文提出了两种可能性的实施区域内合作方式,旨在通过多个渠道推动东北亚地区的能源合作的发展。本文对提出的路径进行了深刻研究和详细阐述。 20세기 90년대부터 지금까지 동북아시아지역은 지리적위치의 린근과 에너지공급과 수요, 기술, 자금 등 방면의 상호보완우세로 에너지협력을 전개하였다.현재 이 지역은 지역 내 에너지 무역과 투자, 석유 및 가스 운송 배관망 건설, 양자 대화와 교류 플랫폼 건설 및 에너지 기술 협력 방면에서 일정한 성과를 거두었다.특히 중국이 제기한'일대일로'구상 이후 주변 각국의 에너지 분야 협력 과정을 더욱 촉진시켰다. 그러나 동북아 지역의 에너지 협력은 에너지 분야의 경쟁 게임, 전략적 상호 신뢰 부족, 역외 강대국의 교란 및 지역 에너지 협력 이론 체계의 미비 등 많은 도전에 직면해 왔다.이런 장애로 동북아의 에너지 협력은 더디게 진행되고 있다.동북아 지역은 북미와 유럽 지역의 지역 에너지 협력에 비해 협력 수준이 낮고 협력 방식이 단일해 지역 에너지 안보 수요를 충족시키기 어렵다.중국, 일본, 한국 등 세 에너지 소비와 수입 대국은 여전히 심각한 에너지 공급 안전 문제와 아시아 프리미엄 문제에 직면해 있으며 러시아도 에너지 수출 안전 문제에 직면해 있다.따라서 역내 각국의 에너지 안보를 확보하기 위한 동북아 에너지 협력을 추진하는 것이 필요하다. 최근 몇 년 동안 전 세계 에너지 형세에 여러 가지 중대한 변화가 발생하여 에너지 시장의 파동이 점차 더 큰 불안전 요소를 드러내고 동북아 지역의 에너지 안전에 새로운 목표를 제공하였으며 각국이 전 세계적으로 지역 일체화의 에너지 협력에 직면하게 되었다.우선 북미 지역의 석유 및 가스 생산량 증가는 러시아와 동북아 국가들의 에너지 협력 심화 의지를 강화시켰다.둘째, 전 세계 저유가는 동북아 지역의 에너지 비축 건설과 협력에 기회를 제공했다.셋째, 동북아 지역의 에너지 수입의 다원화는 이 지역의 에너지 금융 시장의 발전과 협력을 추진하는 데 도움이 된다.넷째, 셰일 석유 및 가스의 투자 개발 협력은 동북아 지역의 에너지 협력에도 새로운 내용을 추가합니다.또한 중국이 제기한'일대일로'구상은 최근 10년간의 노력으로 탁월한 성과도 동북아 지역의 에너지 협력에 새로운 사고방식과 동력을 제공했다. 필자는 현재 국제정세가 불안정하고 전 세계에서"검은 백조 사건"이 빈발하고 있는 것을 감안하여 동북아 지역의 발전현황이 에너지안전에 대한 수요와 유리한 에너지협력환경에 근거하여 동북아 국가들은 어떻게 지역일체화 에너지원 협력의 발전을 진일보 추진할 것인가를 다시 생각할 필요가 있다고 생각한다.이를 위해 본고는 여러 경로를 통해 동북아 지역의 에너지 협력을 더욱 발전시키기 위해 두 가지 가능한 지역 내 협력을 제시했다.이 글은 모든 경로에 대해 깊이 연구하고 상세하게 논술하였다.

동북아 안보환경 변화에 따른 한국의 항공우주력 대응전략

김정철 고려대학교 행정대학원 2019 국내석사

본 연구는 급변하고 있는 동북아 안보환경과 동북아 4강인 미국, 중국, 일본, 러시아의 안보전략을 분석하고, 동북아 4강 및 북한의 항공우주력 현황 분석을 통해 실존적이고 잠재적인 위협에 충분하게 대응할 수 있는 한국의 항공우주력 구축 전략을 제시하는데 목적을 두었다. 선행연구를 통해 항공우주력의 개념 및 특성을 정리하였으며, 동북아 안보 변화에 따른 항공우주력 대응 전략이 항공우주력 전략 이론 개념에 적용되도록 전략마비 이론, 병행전 이론, 네트워크중심전 이론에 대한 이론적 고찰을 수행하였다. 그리고 본 연구의 목적을 달성하기 위하여 첫째, 한국의 지정학적 환경과 동북아 정치경제적 환경 및 안보정세를 살펴보았다. 둘째, 동북아 4강인 미국, 중국, 일본, 러시아의 안보전략 분석 및 2020년대 동북아 안보환경을 전망하였다. 셋째, 동북아 4강 및 북한의 항공우주력 현황과 증강 동향을 분석하였다. 넷째, 한국의 항공우주력 현황 분석 및 동북아 항공우주력을 평가하고 위협을 식별하였다. 동북아 4강의 안보전략 및 안보환경을 분석한 결과, 다음과 같은 결론을 도출하였다. 첫째, 미·중간 패권 경쟁이 당분간 속도 조절을 하게 될 것이며, 미국의 리더십이 상실되거나 위기가 초래할 경우, 중국은 미국의 패권에 도전할 것이다. 둘째, 2022∼2024년 새롭게 선출되는 미·중 지도부 성향에 따라 경쟁 양상의 변화가 있을 것으로 보았다. 셋째, 일본이 중국의 부상에 대응하는 과정에서 중·일간 군사적 긴장이 고조될 것이다. 넷째, 북한의 비핵화 협상은 장기화에 접어들 것이고, 협상 과정에서 진영 간 구도는 명확해질 것으로 전망했다. 한국과 동북아 4강, 북한의 항공우주력 현황 및 증강 실태를 분석한 결과, 다음과 같이 정리할 수 있다. 첫째, 북한을 제외하고 한·중·일·러는 5세대 스텔스 전투기 개발 및 도입을 위해 노력하고 있으며, 각국의 안보전략 구현 수단으로 항공우주력 중심의 증강을 추진하고 있다. 둘째, 방공요격체계 도입 계획을 통해 미사일 공격에 대한 방어 전략을 수립하였다. 셋째, 해상 항공작전 능력 강화를 위해 항공모함 건조 및 개조, 함재기 개발 및 도입을 추진하고 있다. 넷째, 중국과 러시아의 방공요격체계 범위 확대는 한국의 심각한 안보 위협이 될 수 있다. 다섯째, 중국과 일본의 해상 항공작전 능력 구비에 대한 한국의 도서 지역 영유권 수호 노력이 필요하다는 점이다. 동북아 4강의 안보전략과 동북아 주요국 항공우주력 현황을 분석한 결과, 한국의 항공우주력 대응 전략으로 다음과 같이 제시하였다. 첫째, 5세대 스텔스 전투기 추가 도입 및 공군이 보유 중인 전투기에 대한 성능개량을 통해 첨단 항공 전력을 구축해야 한다. 둘째, 현대전과 미래전이 네트워크중심전으로 변화함에 따라 전자전 및 조기경보통제 능력을 확대해야 한다. 셋째, 북한의 핵·미사일 및 주변국의 미사일 전력에 대응하기 위해서 독자적이고 강화된 탄도탄요격체계를 구축해야 한다. 넷째, 도서 지역 영유권 강화와 안정적 해상 수송로를 확보하기 위해서는 해상 항공작전 능력을 구축해야 한다. 본 연구는 동북아 안보환경이 급변하고 있는 상황에서 동북아 안보환경을 전망하였고, 실존적 위협과 잠재적 위협을 식별하였다. 또한, 대응 전략으로 항공우주력 구축 핵심과제와 단계적 발전전략을 수립해 단기, 장기전략을 제시했다는 점에서 시사점이 있다. This study aims to analyze both security environment in Northeast Asia and security strategies of four major powerful nations in Northeast Asian countries such as the United states, China, Japan, and Russia and set up Air and Space Power of South Korea adequately responding to existing and potential threats through analysis of current status of Air and Space Power of four major Northeast Asian countries and North Korea. The concept and features of Air and Space Power were summarized through earlier studies. It conducted theoretical exploration on the theory of strategic paralysis, the theory of parallel warfare, and the theory of network-centric warfare to be applied with Air and Space Power response strategy and the concept of the theory of Air and Space Power strategy in accordance with the changed security in Northeast Asia. First, it examined geographical environment of South Korea. political and economic environment and security situation in Northeast Asia to achieve the purpose of this study. Second, it analyzed ecurity strategies of four major powerful nations in Northeast Asian countries such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia and prospected security environment in Northeast Asia in 2020s. Third, it analyzed the current state of Air and Space Power of four major powerful countries in Northeast Asia and North Korea as well as reinforcement trend. Fourth, it analyzed the current state of Air and pace Power of South Korea, assessed Air and Space Power of Northeast Asia, and distinguished risks. Analysis of security strategies and security environment of four major powerful countries in Northeast Asia were prospected as follows. First, the speed of hegemony competition between the United States and China will be temporarily regulated. If the U.S. leadership is lost or triggers crisis, China will challenge the U.S. hegemony. Second, competition shape will be changed according to the newly elected U.S. and China leaderships's inclinations between 2022 and 2024. Third, military tensions between China and Japan will be escalated in the course that Japan responds to the rising China. Fourth, the North Korea's denuclearization negotiation turned to long-term process and the frame between camps in the process of negotiation was expected to be clear. Analysis of current state of Air and Space Power of North Korea and reinforcement can be summarized as follows. First, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia except for North Korea strive to introduce and develop five-generation stealth aircraft and launch to the reinforcement centered on Air and Space Power as a tool for realizing security strategy of individual country. Second, it set up defense strategies against missile attacks through a plan of introducing the air defense intercept system. Third, it launches to build and revise aircraft carriers and develop and introduce ship planes for reinforcing marine air operation competence. Fourth, the expansion of air defense intercept system can pose serious threats to South Korea. Fifth, efforts to protect the sovereignty of island areas are needed in South Korea regarding the ability of marine air operations of China and Japan. Analysis of the current state of security strategies of four major countries in Northeast Asia and Air and Space Power of major countries proposed Air and Space Power response strategies of South Korea as follows. First, cutting-edge air and space power should be built up by introducing additional five-generation stealth aircraft and by improving performances on aircraft owned by the air force. Second, electronic warfare and airborne warning and control competence should be expanded as the modern and future warfares change to network-centered warfares. Third, original and reinforced the Antiballistic system should be built up in response to North Korea's nuclear and missile and missile strategies of neighboring countries. Fourth, marine air operation competence should be established to reinforce the sovereignty of island areas and obtain marine transportation routes. This study prospected security environment in Northeast Asia under the situation of rapidly changing security environment in Northeast Asia. and distinguished both existing and potential threats. In addition, it has implications that it proposed core tasks of building up Air and Space Power as a response strategy and short-term as well as long-term strategies as gradual development strategies. Keywords : Northeast Asia, Air and Space Power, Air force, Aircraft, Security, Strategy, Missile, United States, China, Japan, Russia, North Korea

Protecting the marine environment of northeast Asia : case of PEMSEA

이고은 Graduate School of International Studies, Korea Un 2010 국내석사

Northeast Asia is striving to protect the marine environment of the region from further pollution and damage. In the line of the efforts, many institutions have been established through the cooperation by littoral states and other international organizations, including Partnerships in Environment Management of Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA). This paper analyzes the effectiveness of PEMSEA as an international environmental institution which aims to protect and manage the various bodies of water in the region. Based on the Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) program, PEMSEA has positively influenced the process of policymaking and implementation by appropriately raising the issues of marine and coastal environment as an agenda, facilitating international and regional agreements between littoral states for protective action, and supporting the implementation of national level measures. Moreover, PEMSEA’s ICM projects in the Bohai Sea of China and Nampho of North Korea are meaningful activities among the Northeast Asian marine protection efforts, as no other institutions have been able to address these areas. With PEMSEA’s legal status as an international organization, it stands to exert greater capacity in protecting the oceans and marine ecosystems of Northeast Asia.

동북아 다자간안보협의체 구상과 실현 방안에 관한 연구 : '헬싱키 프로세스'의 함의와 '제주 프로세스'에의 적용을 중심으로

강병철 제주대학교 대학원 2012 국내박사

이 연구의 목적은 헬싱키프로세스의 함의를 제주프로세스에 적용하여 동북아다자안보협의체 형성이 가능할 것인지를 탐구하는 것이다. 냉전 이후에 지역안보협력레짐이 확산되었고 다수의 다자안보협력포럼들이 설립되었다. ARF는 아시아태평양지역의 공식적인 안보포럼이며 CSCAP는 북태평양작업반이 있는데 이곳에서 지역안보현안을 제2트랙으로 다루고 있으며 북한도 이곳에 참여하고 있다. 1997년 이래로 아세안과 중국 일본 한국이 참가하여 매년 개최되는 아세안+3도 있다. 제주는 국제평화에 공식적 비공식적으로 기여해오고 있다. 제주프로세스는 동북아의 비공식 외교의 대표적인 수단으로 역할을 해오고 있다. 격년제로 2001년부터 개최하고 있는 제4회평화포럼 기조연설에서 노무현대통령은 북핵의 위협을 제거하고 한반도의 평화체제를 구축하는 것은 동북아의 안보 틀을 견고하게 하는 토대가 될 수 있다고 주장하였다. 또한 냉전기에 북한과 적대국이었던 미국과 일본과의 관계개선도 중요하다고 강조하였다. 헬싱키프로세스는 냉전기에 분단된 유럽에 평화를 유지하도록 한 추동력이 되었던 평화구상이며 1990년대초 유럽의 정치적 경제적통합 시도의 토대가 되었다. 제4회제주평화포럼에서는 “제주프로세스”를 선언하였는데 그 선언에서 유럽인들이 헬싱키프로세스에서 보여준 경험을 본받은 동북아의 다자안보레짐의 형성을 바라고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이 헬싱키프로세스의 함의가 무엇인지에 중점을 두고 제주포럼이 동북아의 평화에 기여하는 것과 동북아의 안보협력에서 제주프로세스가 헬싱키프로세스의 경험을 적용시킬 수 있을 것인지를 검토한다. 제2장에서는 다자안보협력이론의 배경과 분석틀을 다루고 있다. 제3장에서는 헬싱키프로세스의 경험을 다룬다. 제4장에서는 동북아안보협력의 경험을 검토하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 동북아안보협력에 관한 기존의 대화의 문제점과 안보형태에 대하여 장기적인 시각에서 다루고 있다. 제5장에서는 헬싱키프로세스에서 보여준 유럽인들의 경험을 따른 동북아다자안보협의체로 제주프로세스의 성공가능성을 검토하고 있다. 제6장에서는 동북아다자안보협의체 형성을 위한 이상적인 조건들에 대하여 다루고 있다. 본 논문의 각 주제를 종합하면 6자회담이 동북아의 다자안보협력에 중요한 함의를 주고 있는데 동북아 다자대화에 강대국과 북한을 참가하게 하여 다자협력을 경험하게 하였다. 또한, 6자회담의 경험이 북한의 다자안보협력에 대한 정책변화를 유도하여 동북아의 다자안보협력레짐 형성의 가능성을 향상시켰다. 동북아의 새로운 안보질서에는 다자안보협의 제도가 필요하며 6자회담 당사국들도 변화하는 안보환경에 대응하고 있다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the possibility of building architecture of Northeast Asia multilateral security cooperation with focusing on the Implication of the Helsinki Process and application to Jeju Process. The advent of the post-Cold War era quickly expanded prospects for a regional security cooperation regime, as several multilateral security cooperation fora were established. These are ASEAN Regional Forum which is the official-level security forum for the Asia Pacific, Committee on Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific which has the North Pacific Working Group of CSCAP as a track-II sub-regional security dialogue, which is attended by all the North Pacific countries, including North Korea and the "ASEAN plus three," which has been held annually since 1997 with members of ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea. Jeju's contribution to international peace has been on various levels, including official activities and unofficial ones. One of the major instruments of regional Northeast Asian unofficial diplomacy has been the Jeju Process. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun claimed that eliminating North Korea's nuclear threat and pushing for a permanent peace deal in the Korean Peninsula would serve as a foundation for a stronger security framework in Northeast Asia. In a keynote speech at the 4th Jeju Peace Forum, a biannual event that started in 2001, Roh also stressed that improving the difficult relations between North Korea and its Cold War foes United States and Japan would also be critical. "East Asia-OSCE Forum'' allowed European participants; several of them were closely involved in the so-called "Helsinki Process,'' to share their experience with their Asian counterparts. The Helsinki Process is an initiative of peacethat provided the momentum to encourage an enduring peace in a divided Europe during the Cold War, which laid the foundation for the efforts toward political and economic integration in the early 1990s. The 4th Jeju Peace Forum ended with a joint declaration, dubbed as the "Jeju Process," containing hopes for a creation of a Northeast Asian multilateral security regime that would mirror earlier European efforts in the Helsinki Process. This dissertation focuses on the contribution of this forum to the relative peace in Northeast Asia by mainly looking at what implication of activity the Helsinki Process represents, and whether Jeju Process adopts experience of the Helsinki Process on Northeast Asian security cooperation; or is Northeast Asian security simply determined by global politics? Chapter 2 presents a taxonomy frame and back grounds of Multilateral Security Cooperation theory. Chapter 3 focuses on the experience of Helsinki Process. Chapter 4 looks at Northeast Asian security Cooperation. Chapter 5 examines Jeju Process's possibility of creation of a Northeast Asian multilateral security regime that would mirror earlier European efforts in the Helsinki Process. Chapter 6 looks at how the International conditions affect the security challenges in Northeast Asia. This paper adopts a long-term perspective and defines the security patterns and the challenges of the former talks about Northeast Asian security cooperation. After reflecting on the themes that unite the dissertation, the conclusion reflects on the result of the Six-Party Talk has an important implication for the possibility of Northeast Asian multilateral security regime by providing the experience of multilateral cooperation with North Korea and active participation of the powerful nations in Northeast Asian multilateral talks. In addition to the experience of Six-Party Talks, the changing North Korea policy on the Northeast Asian multilateral security regime greatly enhances the chance of the formation of Northeast Asian multilateral regime. The security order in Northeast Asia increase the demand of multilateral security institution and the North Korea is responding to this changing security environment in Northeast Asia.

東北亞 多者間 安保協力體制에 관한 硏究

구기용 朝鮮大學校 政策大學院 2002 국내석사

This study has two major motive and background in investigating the subject on the [Multilateral Security System in Northeast Asia]. One of them is that the changing situation these days in Northeast Asia as the result of the end of cold war era increases the need of MSC(Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia). The other one is the progressive attitude of Korean government towards of conception of MSC according to the changeover in understanding of security. From the position of Korea. if it is promoted with direct connection with the [peace regime on the Korean Peninsula]. the MSC which must include peace and unification of the Korean Peninsula as a prerequisite will be go far toward structuring a new order in this region. This study starting with two major backgrounds aims at examining the MSC relating with successive concept of 'peace system of the Korean Peninsula' until the threats from North Korea disappear and the unification comes true. The major task of this study is to present a desirable form of the MSC and Peace System in Korea for its development. The official position of Korean government is that Korea as the country concerned should play a leading role in unification of North and South Korea and the MSC should be closely connected with Peace Regime on the Peninsula in its operation. The form of 'peace regime on the Korean Peninsula' that Korean government suggest can be classified into three part. First, it is the form of North-South Korea and USA- China, namely the form of [2+2]. which can contribute to create a n environment of unification while the threats of North Korea are sustained. Second, it is the form of 'North-South Korea + USA-Japan-China-Russia. namely the form of [2+4], from the time of peaceful coexistence without threats of North Korea. Third, it is the form of 'the United Korea+USA-Japan-China- Russia'. namely the form of [1+4). after the two Koreas united. It is important that MSC must be consisted and developed on the basis of these forms of 'Peace System of Korea. The point is that North and South Korea must have the initiative in the process of unification and the Korean Peninsula must be unified peacefully. This study is about the Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia based of the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. First task of unification of Korea is to set up a lasting peace system, which requires the cooperation and support of neighboring countries, rather than the present cease fire system. This means that there will be a big change of order in Northeast Asia. The unification of Korea is the problem of Korea, but is has a characteristic of international matter at the same time. Certainly, the unification of Korea is the problem of two Koreas that must be settled independently. However, participation of the four countries is essential to establish the peace regime on the Northeast Asia including the Korean Peninsula effectively. Consequently. it is inferred that the aspect of relation between MSC and Peace regime in the Korean Peninsula can be applied as the following way. On the assumption that the peace regime on the Peninsula is divided into two parts-one for the period of starting peaceful coexistence without threats of the North Korea and the other for the period of unification, the aim in the first step is to create peaceful atmosphere and the aim of second step is to create on environment for the peaceful unification. Therefore, MSC should be promoted with the peace regime of the Korean Peninsula in the same direction as its step. In addition, it is expected that this system will contribute the stability and peace in Northeast Asia after the unification of Korea. Ultimately, it is realistic and proper that Korean government should try to access to the Northeast Asia Cooperation Council(NACC) to the level of conversation of non-governmental group at first and create a positive atmosphere of the conversation at the level of consultative body, and then build the form of 'Northeast Asia Peace Council' of governmental group officially for a guarantee of eternal peace on the Korean Peninsula. In order to achieve our object, it is important to carry out a policy, which can induce the cooperation of neighboring countries by analyzing not only their specific position but also their unrevealed intention. In conclusion, not to be ignored are the perfect preparation and the strong power of execution in doing this.

Four Essays on Structural Population Changes in China and Multiregional Production Networking in Northeast Asian Countries

지앙민 서울대학교 대학원 2022 국내박사

This dissertation is concerned with the structural change of population in China and production network in Northeast Asia. After entering the 21st century, Northeast Asia's economic and political status in the world has been further improved. In particular, Northeast Asia, where China, Japan and Korea are located, is one of the regions with the most dynamic economic development in the world. The economic situation in Northeast Asia has undergone great changes in the past decades. Among them, the development of population and changes in trade structure have brought huge opportunities and challenges to the entire Northeast Asia. Facing the challenge of population aging and labor force shrinking, the Chinese government has been trying to reform its family planning policy and retirement age policy from 2015. The purpose of the first part of this dissertation is to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of China’s new Two child policy and retirement age extension policy over the period of 2020 to 2050. The main finding is that the positive impacts of the Two child policy on China's economic growth are expected to be concentrated in the period 2045-2060. In the short run, the effect is not obvious. After the implementation of the Two child policy, a series of new industrial economic structures will emerge. China's industrial structure is expected to continue to gradually shift from manufacturing to service industry. However, the speed of shifting from the manufacturing industry to the service industry will be slightly slower than the One child policy. Based on the predicted results, the changes in the labor structure are affected by the changes in the demographic structure, which will be more conducive to the development of the manufacturing industry. Moreover, the extension of the retirement age will indeed have a positive impact on China's GDP growth from 2020 to 2050, and the optimal policy is the gradually delaying female retirement age from 50 to 60 years. In particular, the share of women in their 30s and 50s in total labor demand is expected to increase induced by the extension of the retirement age. The main purpose of second part of the study is to analyze the evolution of Northeast Asia’ production networks, and the driving force of structural changes using a Cross-Border Interregional Input-Output analysis during 2005~2015 from two perspectives: (1) Vertical Specialization (VS), and (2) Global Value Chain (GVC). The third essay is to find out the source of changing patterns of trade in imported intermediate goods and services. The fourth essay aims to analyze the determinants of GVC participation in CJK, which focus on the trade in value added. The highlights of the third and fourth essay is to examine how the production network changed over the past decade at the regional level, rather than the national level. The main finding is that the changing pattern of production networks in Northeast Asia was mainly induced by changes in domestic backward linkage, import dependency, as well as policy factors, such as changes in tariff rates. Policies such as tariff reduction and regional trade agreements can be expected to improve the efficiency of the Korea-China-Japan production network, and increase productivity through deepening the value chain. 본 본문은 동북아시아 지역의 인구구조변화 및 무역 관계변화에 관한 네 개의 에세이로 구성된다. 먼저, 동태 연산 가능 일반 균형 모형을 구축하여 중점적으로 연령별 인구 및 노동 참여율 변화 같은 외부 충격에 따른 노동 공급의 변화를 반영한 다양한 시뮬레이션을 통해 중국의 인구장려정책, 정년연장정책의 경제 효과에 대해 분석함; 다음으로는 수직 분업화 무역, 글로벌 가치사슬의 측면에서 최근 중국, 한국, 일본을 포함한 동북아시아 지역의 무역·생산구조의 변화 및 변화의 원인에 대해 분석함. 첫 번째 에세이는 중국의 인구장려정책에 대한 연구이다. 본 연구의 목적은 중국 2016년부터 시행한 두자녀정책의 거시적 경제 효과를 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구에서 사용된 방법론은 동태 CGE(연산 가능 일반 균형 모)형이다. 본 연구에서 활용된 자료는 유엔의 최신 인구 예측 자료이며 이에 따르면 2100년 말까지 6,160만 명 인구를 증가될 것이며 그 중에는 4,850만 명이 생산 가능 인구가 될 것이다. 이 논문은 한 자녀 정책과 새로운 두 자녀 정책 두 가지 정책 시나리오를 설정함을 통해서 중점적으로 연령별 인구 및 노동 참여율 변화 등 외부 충격에 따른 노동 공급의 변화를 반영한 다양한 시뮬레이션을 통해 중국의 인구장려정책의 경제 효과에 대해 분석함. 주요 결과는 중국 경제 성장에 대한 두 자녀 정책의 긍정적인 영향이 단기적으로는 뚜렷하지 않고 2045-2060년에 집중될 것으로 예상됨. 두 자녀 정책이 시행된 후 일련의 새로운 산업 및 경제 구조가 등장할 것이다. 중국의 산업구조는 제조업에서 서비스업으로 점진적으로 전환될 것이지만 제조업의 점유율은 서비스의 점유율보다 빠르게 성장할 것으로 예상된다. 예측 결과에 따라 노동구조의 변화는 인구구조의 변화에 의해 영향을 받아 제조업의 발전에 보다 유리할 것이다. 두번째 에세이는 중국의 정년연장정책에 대한 연구이다. 중국 정부는 인구 고령화와 노동 가능인구 감소라는 위기에 직면해 2015년부터 정년 정책을 개혁하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 현재 중국의 법정 정년은 남성 근로자 60세, 여성 간부 55세, 여성 50세이며 세계 범위에서 매우 낮은 편이다. 간부는 정부, 공공기관, 국영기업에서 근무하는 공무원을 총칭하는 용어이다. 두 번째 에세이의 연구목적은 동태CGE 모형을 사용하여 2020년에서 2050년까지 중국의 경제 성장과 고용에 대한 영향을 분석함. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 정년연장정책 개혁의 속도에 따라 경제적, 사회적 영향이 차이가 있다. 정년 연장이 실제로 중국의 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것이라는 점을 발견했다. 또한 정년 연장은 남성과 여성의 대체 관계를 어느 정도 유도할 것이다. 그러나 연령이 다른 동성 간에는 유의미한 대체관계가 발견되지 않았다. 세 번째, 네 번째 에세이는 동북아 생산 네트워크의 발전과 구조적 변화에 대한 연구이다. 세 번째 에세이의 연구 목적은 중간재 무역에 초점을 맞춰서 동북아시아 지역의 무역·생산구조의 변화 및 변화의 원인을 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구에서 사용되는 분석 방법이 구조분해모형이다. 본 연구에서 활용된 자료는 중국 7개 지역, 한국 4개 지역, 일본 9개 지역 및 14개의 산업 부문으로 구성되는 다국가 지역 투입산출표 자료이다. 동북아시아 국가 수준이 아닌 지역 수준에서 분석한다. 기존 연구와 다르게 3단계 구조분해모형으로 확장하고 수직분업화 지수 변화의 주요 영향요인을 8가지 요인으로 분해함. 특히 전자 산업에 중점을 맞춰 구체적으로 지역별 산업별 지역별 수직분업화 지수의 변화의 특징을 비교하였다. 네 번째 에세이의 목적은 동북아 가치사슬의 패턴이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화하고 있는지, 한중일 가치사슬 참여의 결정요인을 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구는 최근 투입산출표 이용하여 특정 지역, 산업의 생산 네트워크 참여 정도에 대한 보다 상세한 정보를 제공하고 국가적 차원이 아닌 지역적 차원에서 한중일 가치사슬 참여도지수를 측정하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 주요 제조업의 가치사슬 참여지수 변화에 초점을 맞춰 정책적 요인과 비정책적 요인별로 가치사슬 참여의 결정요인을 살펴보았다.