유전알고리즘을 이용한 동태적 공간모델의 보정

김복환,양광식 국토연구원 2008 국토연구 Vol.56 No.-

The attraction of Cellular Automata(CA) urban growth models resides in their simplicity, flexibility, and transparency as a modelling framework, and they have been cited in much of the literature as a promising tool to model realistic urban growth. However, the lack of a rigorous calibration process for CA urban growth models is certainly one potential obstacle to their use. Researchers have found the solution for the calibration problems of CA urban growth model from the field of Artificial Intelligence(AI) equipped with heuristic search routines. AI technique of Genetic Algorithms(GA) can be one of the promising alternatives. A model for new city growth (the so-called NCGM: New City Growth Model) was developed using stochastically constrained CA. A GA was designed to calibrate the NCGM. Accuracy and consistency of the calibration results through the GA were sought using hypothetical data and real data and meanings for the calibrated values are sought. It was revealed that NCGM produced very reliable results based on the experiments using both hypothetical and real data. Underpinned by GA’s accurate and consistent calibration results CA urban growth models, such as NCGM, can be strengthened their position in simulating realistic urban growth. The attraction of Cellular Automata(CA) urban growth models resides in their simplicity, flexibility, and transparency as a modelling framework, and they have been cited in much of the literature as a promising tool to model realistic urban growth. However, the lack of a rigorous calibration process for CA urban growth models is certainly one potential obstacle to their use. Researchers have found the solution for the calibration problems of CA urban growth model from the field of Artificial Intelligence(AI) equipped with heuristic search routines. AI technique of Genetic Algorithms(GA) can be one of the promising alternatives. A model for new city growth (the so-called NCGM: New City Growth Model) was developed using stochastically constrained CA. A GA was designed to calibrate the NCGM. Accuracy and consistency of the calibration results through the GA were sought using hypothetical data and real data and meanings for the calibrated values are sought. It was revealed that NCGM produced very reliable results based on the experiments using both hypothetical and real data. Underpinned by GA’s accurate and consistent calibration results CA urban growth models, such as NCGM, can be strengthened their position in simulating realistic urban growth.

임금 주도 성장과 이윤 주도 성장: 포스트 칼레츠키안 성장 모형과 정책적 함의

홍태희 ( Tae-hee Hong ) 한국질서경제학회 2015 질서경제저널 Vol.18 No.2

This study surveys the studies about the effect of income distribution on economic growth in using the Post Kaleckian growth model. The Post Kaleckian growth model is a kind of Post Keynesian economic model, which explains the key features of Keynes’s and Kalecki’s analysis of capitalist economies and examines distributional issues and distributional conflict for economic outcomes. Issues of this kind of macro model are back on the research agenda since the Great Recession. The Post Kaleckian macro model is based on the principle of effective demand, include distributional conflict between wages and profits. The Post Kaleckian growth model is based on a demand-driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990), which allows for either profit- or wage-led growth. On the one hand, higher real wages increase demand, which stimulates output. On the other hand, higher real wages increase the cost of production. This reduces profits, which has a negative effect on investment. This Post Kaleckian growth model allows for studying the impact of functional income distribution on the growth in demand. In this study the empirical analysis results and implication of the Bhaduri-Marglin model will be discussed. It applies a single equation approach, estimating the distribution on the demand aggregates and summing up these effects in order to obtain the total effects of distribution on GDP growth. The empirical results show that most of countries are wage-led growth regime domestically, but overall a profit-led growth regime including open economy. This study suggests the alternative model to integrate various dimensions of income distribution into theory and empirical models. This paper begins with the analysis of the development of Post Kaleckian macro model, which is based on Hein and Vogel (2008), and then will continue to investigate in the next paragraphs: the survey, development and suggestion.

Income Distribution and Growth under A Synthesis Model of Endogenous and Neoclassical Growth

KIM Se-Jik 대외경제정책연구원 2015 Working Papers Vol.2015 No.01

This paper develops a model which allows us to analyze the effect of policies that influence income distribution between capitalists and workers (such as taxes and market imperfections) on the log-run growth path of an economy. More specifically, we present a heterogeneous agent model where some agents choose to be capitalists to specialize in accumulating physical capital and others become workers accumulating human capital. An important feature of this model is that it can be reduced to either an endogenous growth model or Neoclassical growth model. For a range of the parameters of technology and policy variables, the model generates a balanced growth path where capitalists continue to accumulate physical capital and workers human capital, as in AK model of endogenous growth. For a different range of parameters, the model generates a steady state along which both capitalists and workers do not increase physical or human capital any longer as in Neoclassical growth models. This model, therefore, can be viewed as a synthesis model of endogenous and neoclassical growth. An advantage of this synthesis growth model is that it allows us to explain the shift in the growth path in response to policy shocks that affect the capital-labor income distribution. This growth model explains the change in the path from sustained growth to zero growth as a regime change from endogenous growth to Neoclassical growth regime, and that from zero to sustained growth as a regime shift of the other way around. Based on the synthesis growth model, we show that changes in labor income share or government policies that make such changes may induce a shift in the growth regime and subsequent change in the balanced growth path. The policies of capital-labor income distribution include those of changing labor and capital income tax rates and regulations on monopoly or monopsony. The monopolist firms which have monopsony power in labor market can choose the wage rate rather than take it as given. Thus they may drive the wage rate down below labor productivity, which would induce a decline in labor income share and zero growth. We show that in this situation the government policy of regulating monopoly/monopsony or raising wage rates may raise labor income share, and by doing so, trigger human capital accumulation and an ensuing shift to a path of sustained growth.

GAMM과 PGM을 적용한 성장모형의 탐색

박희주(Hee Joo Park),류지훈(Ji Hoon Ryoo) 한국교육평가학회 2023 교육평가연구 Vol.36 No.2

종단연구에서 성장모형을 탐색하는 것은, 성장과 관계된 변인의 효과성을 검증하는 것만큼 중요하다. 본 연구는 성장모형을 확인함에 있어 종단연구에서 일반화 가법 혼합 모형(GAMM)과 조각별 성장모형(PGM)을 활용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 실증자료는 한국교육종단연구(KELS-2013) 데이터를 통해, 학생들의 수학 학업성취도의 변화를 GAMM과 PGM을 활용하였다. 연구 결과, 첫째, GAMM에서 최적화된 성장모형 함수의 지수가 2.98로 산출되어, 성장모형은 3차 함수에 가장 적합한 것을 확인하였다. 또한 GAMM을 적용해 무선 효과를 검증한 결과, 조사의 시작점인 1차년도에서 198.73점의 성장을 확인하였고, 학생들의 수학 학업성취도 성장에 있어서는 여학생이 남학생보다 2.97점 높은 성장을 보이는 것을 확인하였다. 둘째, PGM을 적용한 결과, 전환점은 2.54에서 나타나 초등학교에서 중학교로 학교 급이 변화하는 시점에서 가장 큰 변화를 보이는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 데이터 기반 성장모형을 탐색하는 GAMM과 PGM을 통한 접근을 시도했으며, 이러한 연구는 데이터 기반 기계학습법 등의 성장모형 분석으로 크게 확장될 수 있다. Exploring a growth model in a longitudinal study is as important as verifying the effectiveness of variables related to growth. In this study, in identifying the growth model, the analysis was conducted using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) and the piecewise growth model (PGM) in longitudinal study. For empirical data, GAMM and PGM were used for identifying changes in students' academic achievement in mathematics through the Korean Education Longitudinal Study (KELS-2013) data. As a result, the exponent of the growth model function optimized in GAMM was calculated as 2.98, confirming that the growth model was most suitable for a cubic function. In addition, as a result of verifying the random effect by applying GAMM, a growth of 198.73 points was confirmed in the first year, the starting point of the survey, and it was confirmed that female students showed 2.97 points higher growth than male students in terms of growth in students' math achievement. On the other hand, as a result of applying PGM, the turning point appeared at 2.54, and it was confirmed that the greatest change was shown at the time of school grade change from elementary school to middle school. Such results as in this study show different approaches through GAMM and PGM to explore data-based growth models, and these results can be greatly expanded to analyze growth models such as data-based machine learning methods.

분할 선형 성장모형을 사용한 불연속 성장궤적의 분석에서 도약의 추정

권도희,조승빈 한국심리학회 2023 한국심리학회지 일반 Vol.42 No.4

분할 선형 성장모형(piecewise linear growth model)은 비선형 성장궤적을 가지는 종단자료의 분석에 유용하다. 분할 선형 성장모형에서는 변곡점을 기준으로 측정기간을 복수의 구간으로 나누고 각 구간에 개별적인 선형모형을 적용함으로써 비선형 성장궤적을 모형화할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 성장요인에 대해 직관적이고 이론적으로 의미 있는 해석이 용이하다. 이러한 장점에 더해서, 변곡점에서 발생하는 변화로 인해 성장궤적이 연결되지 않는 불연속 성장궤적(이하 ‘도약’) 또한 모형화가 가능하다. 그러나 이러한 장점은 분할성장모형의 적용에서 자주 간과된다. 본 연구에서는 도약을 포함한 분할 선형 성장모형의 모수화 방법을 개괄하고 분할 선형 성장모형의 적용에서 자료에 실재하는 도약을 생략할 때 발생할 수 있는 모수 추정의 편향과 적합도의 변화를 시뮬레이션을 통해 확인하였다. 다양한 크기의 도약이 존재하는 불연속 성장궤적을 기반으로 자료를 생성하고 이를 Harring 등(2006)이 제안한 분할 선형 성장모형으로 분석하였다. Harring 등(2006)의 모형은 이론에 기반 하여 선험적으로 변곡점을 설정하는 대신, 자료로부터 변곡점의 위치를 추정한다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과를 통해 도약의 생략으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 변곡점 추정의 편향 또한 확인하였다. 분석 결과, 도약의 크기가 커질수록 이를 포함하지 않는 분할 선형 성장모형의 결과에서 모수 추정의 편향이 대체로 커지고 모형의 적합도가 낮아졌다. 모수 추정의 편향은 성장요인의 종류에 따라 그 양상이 달랐다. 본 연구의 결과는 분할 선형 성장모형의 적용에서 도약을 추정하거나 실증적으로 검정하는 것이 대부분의 경우 더 적절함을 시사한다. 마지막으로 본 연구의 결과를 토대로 분할 선형 성장모형의 적용을 위한 전략을 제안하였다. Piecewise linear growth model(PLGM) is useful to model for non-linear trajectories. In PLGM, entire assessment period is split into multiple phases at points called “knots’, and separate linear growth model is applied to each phase. Because linear growth model is used at each phase, the interpretation of growth factors is more straightforward and theoretically meaningful compared to other methods for modeling non-linear growths. In addition, radical changes at the knot can lead to disjointed trajectories (referred to as ”jump“ in the follwing) at knots, and PLGM can model the jump. However, such advantage of PLGM is often overlooked in applications of PLGM. In this study, we reviewed parameterizations of PLGM that allow the estimation of the jump in disjointed trajectories, and examined consequences, in terms of estimation bias and model fit, of model misspecification by omitting the jump. For this purpose, we generated datasets with trajectories with various degrees of jumps and analyzed the datasets using the PLGM proposed by Harring et al. (2006), which estimates the location of the knot, instead of setting it at an a priori point. Thus, we were also able to examine the estimation of the knot locations in the presence of the model misspecification. In our results, with increasing degrees of the jump, in general, the bias of parameter estimates increased and the model fit declined. The results showed that, in most situations, it is a good idea to include the jump in the applications of PLGM, unless there is a strong theoretical background to omit the jump. We also provided practical strategies in the applications of PLGM based on our results.

녹색성장기업의 기업가치평가 사례연구; 미리넷솔라와 GS퓨얼셀을 중심으로

이창섭(Chang Seop Rhee),유용근(Yong Keun Yoo),전홍민(Hong Min Chun) 한국경영학회 2013 Korea Business Review Vol.17 No.2

최근 들어 자원남용 둥으로 인한 환경오염을 최소화시키며 동시에 경제성장을 뒷받침할 수 있는 녹색성장에 대한 논의가 전세계적으로 이루어지고 있다. 우리나라 역시 녹색성장산업을 새로운 부가가치 산업으로 판단하여 녹색성장 산업 관련 기업에 대한 다양한 지원책을 실시하고 있다. 이와 같은 녹색성장산업 관련 기업에 대한 정책적 지원을 보다 효율적으로 수행하기 위해서는 해당 기업들에 대한 정확한 가치평가가 필연적으로 요구된다. 이에 따라 본 사례연구에서는 우리나라의 새로운 경제성장 동력으로서 주목 받고 있는 녹색성장산업 관련 기업 중 대표적 비상장기업인 미리넷솔라와 GS퓨얼셀에 대한 세부적인 기업가치평가를 수행함으로써 녹색성장산업에 속한 기업들의 가치평가에 있어 하나의 지침을 제공하고자 한다. 본 사례연구에서는 Ohlson (l995)의 잔여영업이익할인 모형을 이용하여 두 기업에 대한 기업가치평가를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 본 사례연구에서는 우선 잔여영업이익할인 모형을 소개하고 관련된 재무제표 분석기법을 설명하였다. 다음으로 녹색성장산업에 있어서의 전반적인 추세를 서술하고 미리넷솔라와 GS퓨얼셀의 기업가치평가를 위한 산업분석, 기업전략분석 및 재무제표 분석결과를 보고하였다. 이를 바탕으로 두 기업의 미래 잔여영업이익을 예측함으로써 각각의 기업가치를 도출하였다. 본 사례연구는 최근 들어 주목 받고 있는 녹색성장산업 및 관련 기업에 대한 다양한 정성적 그리고 정량적인 분석을 통해 해당 산업에 대한 독자들의 이해도를 높이는 한편, 녹색성장산업의 정책적 지원과 관련된 의사결정에 필수적인 기업가치평가의 실제 사례를 소개함으로써 유용한 교육자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이며, 나이가 자본시장 참여자 및 정책당국 둥 관련 실무자들에게도 중요한 시사점을 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. This study deals with a case analysis about equity valuation of green growth industry in Korea. Green growth is a way to synergize economic growth and environmental protection, and internationally it is highlighted as a potential developing industry for new era. In recent years, Korean government also has an attention to green growth and begins to emphasize the importance of green growth. Many new polices about green growth are announced and many new firms in green growth industry are established. Therefore, understanding of green growth is very essential for adapting to the new surroundings in this time. For your understanding of green growth, we provide the definition and trend in Korea of green growth. Further, we suggest practical examples of Millinet Solar and GS fuelcell. Both firms are currently existing firms in Korean green growth industry. We will introduce their market and firm circumstance and eventually valuate their firm-value using the Residual Operating Income (ReOI) valuation model. Preferentially, we begin to explain the theoretical background of ReOI valuation model which is derived from Ohlson (1995) and its implemental framework before presenting about green growth because this prior explanation about the valuation model will be helpful to understand the practical firm examples later effectively. Basically, ReOI valuation model focuses on operating income but ignores the effect of financial activity since residual income is created by operating activity. We will explain how to assort operating activity and financial activity from balance sheet and income statement for reformulating financial statements. After the explanation of the valuation model, we provide definition of green growth, encouraging green growth policies in Korea, market and firm analysis, and eventually valuate the value of two existing green growth firms using ReOI valuation model. Although there are many theoretical and empirical research papers regarding equity valuation, there is no specific case analysis report for the practical implementation of ReOI valuation model for Korean green growth companies. This case study aims to fill this void in the academic literature. This case study may contribute to both industry and academic communities by describing how to implement theoretical valuation model in practice.

수출 1억불 중견기업 성장동력 모델 연구

유영식 ( Young-sik You ) 한국중견기업학회 2013 중견기업연구 Vol.4 No.1

본 연구는 글로벌 전문기업 이상을 달성한 중소/중견기업 70개사에 대해 재무, 비재무 지표 등의 정량분석과 설문조사, FGI(Focus Group Interview) 등의 입체적 분석을 통해 수출1억불에 도달한 성장 요인을 도출하고, 이를 바탕으로 향후 후발기업이 보다 효율적으로 수출1억불에 도달하기 위한 성장동력 모델을 수립하기 위해 진행되었다. 국내 중견기업이 글로벌 전문기업에 도달한 경로는 다음과 같이 4가지 유형으로 분석되었다. 〔유형1〕Win-Win Type : 기업과 동반성장 과정에서 자연스럽게 해외시장도 동반진출하면서 수출부문의 성장을 달성한 Case,〔유형2〕Overflow Type : 국내시장에서 오랜기간 성장한 후, 시장이 포화, 성숙되면서 이를 타개하기 위해 해외시장을 적극적으로 공략하면서 수출부문의 성장을 달성한 Case,〔유형3〕Niche-Leader Type : 초기부터 특화된 Niche Market에 Focus하여 우수 한 기술력을 바탕으로 국내와 해외를 동시에 공략하면서 수출부문의 성장을 달성한 Case,〔유형4〕 Frontier Type : 신생, 신기술, 첨단사업 분야에서, 사업초기부터 국내외 시장을 동시에 공략하면서 수출부문의 성장을 달성한 Case이다. 이러한 글로벌 전문기업 달성 성장 유형을 바탕으로 4가지의 성장동력 모델을 도출하였다. 〔Model1〕 Win-Win 육성 Model은 대기업의 우수협력사 선발, 체계적으로 집중, 육성함으로써, 조기에 글로 벌 전문기업에 도달하도록 지원하는 모델이다. 〔Model 2〕 Overflow 촉진 Model은 국내 시장에서 더 이상 성장 여력이 없으나, 글로벌 시장에서 성장 잠재력 있는 기업을 대상으로 적극적인 마케팅과 해외진출을 촉진시킴으로써 조기에 글로벌 전문기업에 도달하도록 지원하는 모델이다. 〔Model 3〕 Niche-Leader 육성 Model은 Global 차원의 독보적인 기술력을 확보한 기업을 선발하여 기술개발과 마케팅을 지원함으로써 조기에 글로벌 전문기업에 도달하도록 지원하는 모델이다. 〔Model 4〕 Frontier 육성 Model은 신기술, 신사업 모델을 기반으로 급성장하는 유망기업을 발굴하여 기술개발 과 마케팅을 지원함으로써 조기에 글로벌 전문기업에 도달하도록 지원하는 모델이다. Four growth types for achieving $100 million export were derived by investigating financial/non-financial, quantitative/qualitative indicators about 70 small and medium-sized companies that have achieved the $ 100 million or more exports. Based on growth type of $ 100 million exports company, four growth engine models were derived. 〔Model 1〕 Win-Win Model is that large company helps its small but excellent partnership company grow fastly to reach the $ 100 million export. 〔Model 2〕 Overflow promotion Model is promoting the overseas expansion and marketing ability toward global market of the company which has no further growth potential in the domestic market, but high potential for growth in the global market. 〔Model 3〕 Strengthening Niche-Leader Model is to support the marketing and technology development of the company which has unique technological capabilities in the global niche market. 〔Model 4〕 Nurturing Frontier Model is to help the company which has rapid growth based on new technology or new business models to reach the $ 100 million export early by supporting the marketing and technology development.

도서관 성과 측정을 위한 잠재성장모형 적용에 관한 연구

박성재,한상우,조세홍 한국문헌정보학회 2018 한국문헌정보학회지 Vol.52 No.4

The purpose of this study is to discuss the application of the Latent Growth Model to measure the outcomes of public library. For outcome measurements, library circulation data were collected to identify longitudinal changes of library users’ reading habit. The latent growth model was applied to statistically test the changes over time. The circulation data of 95,962 users registered in some public libraries in Seoul, ranged between 2010 and 2015, were analyzed using unconditional model, conditional model, and growth mixture model which all are called the latent growth model. The results show that the intercept of the model is 4.19 and the slop is 0.24 in the linear growth model. The gender difference in two latent variables including intercept and slop was a shade difference. The result from the growth mixture model analysis, additionally indicates that the number of books checked out by children under age 10 is rapidly increased. The application of the latent growth model in library fields is expected to widely spread out for the longitudinal data analysis. 본 연구의 목적은 도서관의 성과를 측정하기 위해서 잠재성장모형을 적용하고 그 활용가능성을 논하는 것이다. 도서관의 성과를 측정하기 위하여 도서관 활동에 대한 데이터, 즉 이용자의 대출 데이터를 이용하였다. 시간에 따른 변화를 담고 있는 종단자료를 분석하기 위한 통계적인 모형으로 잠재성장모형을 이용하였다. 서울 소재 공공도서관의 2010년부터 2014년까지의 95,962명의 이용자의 대출데이터를 무조건모형, 조건모형, 혼합성장모형을 적용하여 대출의 특성을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 대출량은 절편요인이 4.19, 기울기요인이 0.24의 선형성장을 보였다. 성별에 따른 차이분석에서 큰 차이를 보이지 않았으나 4개의 그룹으로 나누었을 때, 10세 미만의 어린이의 대출 패턴이 급속히 증가하는 추세를 보였다. 향후 문헌정보학 분야에서 종단연구자료를 분석할 때, 잠재성장모형이 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

무변화 성장모형의 실재적 정의

김수영(Su-Young Kim),김민주(Minjoo Kim),서영숙(Youngsuk Suh) 한국교육평가학회 2020 교육평가연구 Vol.33 No.3

내용 영역 연구자들이 성장모형을 이용하여 종단자료를 분석하는 과정에서 첫 단계에 무변화 성장모형(no-growth model)을 사용하는 경우가 상당히 많다. 무변화 모형을 사용한 연구들을 분석한 결과, 모형의 정의를 정확하게 내리지 못하고 모호하게 설명한 경우가 상당히 많았다. 모호하거나 틀리게 서술한 경우를 살펴보면, 기울기의 평균이 0으로 고정되는 선형 성장모형과 무변화 모형을 혼동하고 있다는 것을 파악할 수 있었다. 실제로 국내의 논문 및 책을 확인한 결과 누구나 이해할 수 있는 방식으로 무변화 모형을 선명하고 정확하게 설명한 경우를 찾을 수가 없었다. 이에 본 논문은 방법론이나 통계학을 전공하지 않은 연구자들도 받아들일 수 있는 수식과 그림을 통하여 무변화 모형을 잠재성장모형의 틀에서 정확하게 이해할 수 있도록 정보를 제공하고자 한다. 또한 실제 자료의 예제를 통하여 무변화 모형의 의미와 쓰임에 대하여 고찰한다. No-growth models are widely utilized as a first step in longitudinal data analyses. Literature review on existing substantive research about the no-growth model reveals that not many researchers could clearly define the meaning of the no-growth model, although most of them did not make mistakes on the actual estimation process. Many substantive researchers seemed to be confused with two different growth models in the meaning, a linear growth model with a zero constraint on slope mean and the no-growth model. Given the lack of methodological articles or books that explained the exact meaning of the no-growth model in domestic research, the objective of the present study is to provide researchers enough information about the no-growth model through equations and figures and to make them have a tangible meaning of the no-growth model. A real data analysis is also provided to better understand the meaning and use of the model.

자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축

박도형(Do-Hyung Park),정재권(Jaekwon Chung),정여진(Yeo Jin Chung),이동원(Dongwon Lee) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2014 지능정보연구 Vol.20 No.4

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models’ predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an N X N map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.