6·25전쟁 시 중공군 개입과정보실패 요인에 관한 연구

장호근 한국국가정보학회 2017 국가정보연구 Vol.10 No.1

This study aims to identify the causes of intelligence failure of the Chinese military intervention during the Korean War. The causes for intelligence failure during an intelligence cycle can be categorized as an inherent intelligence failure and a non- intelligence(i.e. policy) failure, and in this study, these two elements are closely examined to find out which one relates to intelligence failures of the Chinese military intervention during the Korean War. This study comes to a conclusion that as for the U. S. intelligence community, it was a non-intelligence(i.e. policy) failure as the system which coordinates and controls the U. S. intelligence community was not yet fully settled and under the process of reorganization. As for the information collection, it was a typical inherent intelligence failure itself, not a non-intelligence(i.e. policy) failure. The units of HUMINT and COMINT could collect and intercept the indications of the Chinese troops movement. However, the intelligence analysis centered on the enemy capabilities rather than its intention, resulting in the failure of strategic intelligence estimates regarding the Chinese military intervention. As for the receptivity of decision maker and intelligence analyst, it was the mixed intelligence failures of an inherent intelligence failure and a non-intelligence failure(i.e. policy) failure caused by cognitive biases. The cognitive biases such as a mirror image which judges enemy’s intention against Western value, procedure and standard, and a wishful thinking of the U.S. winning the war based on MacArthur's personal intuition and arrogance, greatly influenced the U. S. decision makers and intelligence analysts. On the other hand, the possibility for Chinese intervention was not highlighted as a strength signal in the signal-to-noise ratio as the wishful thinking was widely spread by the success of the Battle of Inchon(Operation Chromite) and this played as a “background noise.” It might be regarded as the mixed intelligence failures. Consequently, these causes contributed to the another intelligence failure followed by the initial warning failure on the outbreak of the Korean War. A lesson learned from this analysis could be that such cognitive bias can occur amidst the current security developments in Korea. Thus the author argues for the establishment of a integrated intelligence system in Korea to prevent a similar intelligence failures of the Korean War. In order to do this, South Korea should first strengthen their own national intelligence assets and system. Then, it needs to consider establishing a similar organization to NIC(National Intelligence Council) of the DNI in the US for making the long term NIEs(national intelligence estimates) to monitor the threat development from North Korea. Especially this study recommends that the IEWS(Integrated Early Warning System, tentative title) be established among the U,S., Japan and South Korea to counter against the North's nuclear and missile threat. 6·25전쟁 시 중공군 개입에 대한 정보실패 요인을 규명하기 위하여 정보순환과정에서 발생 가능한 정보실패의 여러 요인들을 정보적 요소 및 정보외적(정책적) 요소로 구분하고, 이들 중에서 어떤 요소들이 정보실패와 관련되었는가를 분석하였다. 그 결과 미국의 정보체제는 전쟁 기간 중 변화하고 있는 과정으로 아직 정착되지 못해 조직의 조정·통제가 미흡한 체제상의 요인에 의한 정보외적 실패가 있었다. 첩보수집에 있어서 HUMINT와 COMINT 조직은 중공군의 개입 움직임을 분명히 포착할 수 있었으나 적의 의도보다도 능력분석에 치중한 결과 중공군 개입에 대한 전략적 정보판단에 실패했고, 정책결정자와 정보분석관의 수용성 문제에 있어서도 ‘거울 이미지’ 등과 같이 적을 서양의 가치와 절차를 기준으로판단하는 오류, 그리고 전력의 우세가 전쟁에 승리할 것이라는 ‘소망적 사고’ 가 수용성에 크게 영향을 미쳤다. 또한 인천상륙작전의 대성공이 강한 배경 ‘잡음(noise)’이 되어 그 속에서 중공군의 개입 가능성에 대한 정보보고 즉 ‘신호(signal)’를 찾아내지 못한 것도 정책결정자들과 정보분석관들의 인지적 오류에의한 정보실패였음을 유추할 수 있었다. 이와 같이 정보적 및 정보외적 요인이복합적으로 작용하여 전쟁 발발 예측실패에 이어 동일 전쟁에서 반복되는 정보실패를 초래했다. 이러한 정보실패가 우리에게 주는 교훈은 동일한 정보실패가 현재 한반도에도 또 다시 발생 할 수 있다는 데 있다. 따라서 이에 대한 대비책의 하나로 ‘통합정보체제’도 고려할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 일차적으로 국가급 정보자산의확보와 함께 중장기적으로 북한의 변화를 심도 있게 예측하고 판단하기 위해미국 DNI의 국가정보실(NIC)과 유사한 기구를 국정원 산하에 설치하는 것도 필요하다. 더 나아가 ‘한·미·일 통합조기경보체제(IEWS)의 설립이 언젠가 이루어진다면 더욱 도움이 될 것이다.

시뮬레이션을 통해 안전성 검증을 위한 개선된 SysML 기반 고장 모델

김창원(Chang-Won Kim),이재천(Jae-Chon Lee) 한국산학기술학회 2018 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.19 No.10

현대의 시스템은 지속적으로 대형화, 복잡화되어 왔기 때문에 시스템의 오류 발생 가능성이 커졌다. 시스템의 고장은 안전 사고를 발생시키고, 인명과 재산상의 막대한 피해를 줄 수 있다. 이러한 이유로 미 국방성과 IEC 등의 국제표준기구에서는 시스템의 안전성을 확보하기 위한 안전 관련 국제표준을 제정하였고, 시스템 설계와 안전 활동이 통합적으로 수행되어야 함을 권고하였다. 이에 따라 최근의 연구들은 모델기반 시스템 설계를 진행함과 동시에 모델을 활용하여 시스템의 안전성 검증을 수행하였다. 하지만 시스템 설계를 위한 모델과 안전성 분석 및 검증을 위한 고장모델을 서로 다른 모델링 언어를 기반으로 생성하였기 때문에 시스템 설계와 안전 활동이 통합적으로 수행되지 못하였다. 또한, UML 또는 SysML 기반으로 고장모델을 활용하여 안전 요구사항을 도출한 연구들은 안전 분석 및 검증에 고장모델이 제한적으로 활용되었다. 이와 같은 문제점을 해결하기 위해서 기존의 고장모델 활용법을 확장 시킬 필요가 있다. 우선 시스템 설계와 안전성 검증 활동을 통합적으로 수행할 수 있는 개선된 SysML 기반의 고장모델을 생성해야 한다. 다음으로 이 고장모델을 활용하여 도출된 안전 요구사항이 시스템 설계에 제대로 반영되었는지 검증할 수 있어야 한다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 개선된 SysML 기반 고장모델의 개념과 생성 절차를 제시하였고, 자동차 시스템에 대한 고장모델을 생성하였다. 또한, 자동차 시스템의 안전성을 검증하기 위해서 고장모델의 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 이를 통해서 개선된 SysML 기반 고장모델을 활용하여 시스템 설계와 안전성 검증 활동을 수행할 수 있음을 보였다. System design errors are more likely to occur in modern systems because of their steadily increasing size and complexity. Failures due to system design errors can cause safety-related accidents in the system, resulting in extensive damage to people and property. Therefore, international standards organizations, such as the U.S. Department of Defense and the International Electrotechnical Commission, have established international safety standards to ensure system safety, and recommend that system design and safety activities should be integrated. Recently, the safety of a system has been verified by modeling through a model-based system design. On the other hand, system design and safety activities have not been integrated because the model for system design and the failure model for safety analysis and verification were developed using different modeling language platforms. Furthermore, studies using UML or SysML-based failure models for deriving safety requirements have shown that these models have limited applicability to safety analysis and verification. To solve this problem, it is essential to extend the existing methods for failure model implementation. First, an improved SysML-based failure model capable of integrating system design and safety verification activities should be produced. Next, this model should help verify whether the safety requirements derived via the failure model are reflected properly in the system design. Therefore, this paper presents the concept and method of developing a SysML-based failure model for an automotive system. In addition, the failure model was simulated to verify the safety of the automotive system. The results show that the improved SysML-based failure model can support the integration of system design and safety verification activities.

A Framework for Analysis of Systems Failure in Information Systems Integration

Kim, Han-Gook,Iijima, Junichi,Ho, Sho Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers 2005 Industrial Engineeering & Management Systems Vol.4 No.2

Business mergers are a direct result of rapid changes in the current corporate environment. They are occurring in many industries, including financial institutions. As information systems prove increasingly indispensable in the integration of companies’ business systems, information system integration is becoming increasingly necessary. However, in many cases such integration does not work well. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework using both IS integration model and IS integration phases to analyze systems failure in IS integration.

6∙25전쟁 발발과 정보실패 요인에 관한 연구

장호근 한국국가정보학회 2016 국가정보연구 Vol.9 No.1

This study analyzes the causes of intelligence failures of the Korean War by examining which of the two categorical causes in an intelligence cycle, that is, intelligence failures and nonintelligence( policy) failures. This study comes to a conclusion that the system, which coordinates and controls the U.S. intelligence community, was not yet fully organized before the outbreak of the Korean War. In addition, sources for information collection were limited, leading to a heavy dependence on the HUMINT sources mainly. Such problem in information collection inhibited the producing of imminent threat from North Korea and negatively influenced in persuading the intelligence users in the U.S. government. Moreover, South Korea was not highlighted as a strength signal in the signal-to-noise ratio as Seoul was in low priority compared to Formosa or Japan in the U.S. national security interest at that time. Furthermore other cognitive biases including cry wolf effects and wishful thinking and etc, complexly influenced the U.S. decision makers where they perceived the invasion form the North, but did not decide to react. All of the aforementioned factors contributed to the intelligence failures of the war. Consequently this study concludes that the intelligence failures of the Korean War results from the lack of a well organized integrated intelligence system, namely an integrated warningresponse framework, before the outbreak of the war. The author argues that the intelligence failure of the Korean War was a result of a non- intelligence(policy) failure, which includes shortcomings in the intelligence systems and problems in decision makers’ receptivity, rather than an intelligence failure itself which includes problems in information collection of imminent attack. Such conclusion provides a lesson for the current security developments in South Korea. First of all, Korea should strengthen the development of the Korean own intelligence system, which too much depends on the U.S. In addition to counter against the North’s nuclear and missile threat, the integrated intelligence system among the U.S, Japan and South Korea is necessary. This will enable integration, coordination and control of the intelligence related to the North within the framework of the multilateral security cooperation. Thus, this study recommends that the IEWS(Integrated Early Warning System, tentative title) among three countries be established, and the GOSMIA(General Security of Military Information Agreement) between South Korea and Japan also be promoted. 6∙25전쟁 발발의 정보실패 요인을 규명하기 위하여 정보순환과정에서 발생 가능한정보실패의 여러 요인들을 정보적 요소 및 정보외적(정책적) 요소로 구분하고, 이들 중에서 어떤 요소들이 정보실패와 관련되었는가를 분석하였다. 그 결과 6∙25전쟁 발발 전에 미국은 정보공동체를 조정∙통제하는 체제가 완성되지못한 상태였으며 정보순환과정의 첩보수집에서도 제한된 HUMINT에 대부분 의존하여 출처의 다양성이 결여되었다. 이러한 문제는 위협이 임박하다는 정보를 생산하지 못해미국 정부의 정보 사용자를 설득하는데 까지 부정적으로 영향을 미치었다. 또한 당시한국은 일본이나 대만보다도 미국의 국가안보 이익에 우위에 있지 못하였기 때문에 그중요성은 부각될 수 없었고 양치기소년 효과, 소망적 사고 등 인지적 오류가 복합적으로 작용하여 미국의 정책결정자들이 위협은 인식했으나 결정을 하지 못하는 정보실패를 초래하였다. 따라서 경고자와 대응자를 연결하는 틀인‘통합정보체제’의 부재가 정보실패를 초래했다는 결론을 도출했다. 첩보수집과 같은 정보실패보다는 정보체제 미흡과 인지적인 오류에 의한 정보외적 요소인 정책실패가 6∙25전쟁 발발을 경고하지못하고 정보실패를 초래한 것이다. 이러한 결론은 우리의 최근 안보 상황에도 교훈이 된다. 따라서 북한의 핵과 미사일위협에 보다 적극적으로 대응하기 위해서는 국가급 정보자산의 확보와 함께 우리의 독자적인 정보체제 강화가 시급하다. 따라서 미국 DNI의 국가정보실(NIC)과 유사한 기구를 국정원 산하에 설치하는 것도 고려할 필요가 있다. 그리고 다자안보협력의 기본적인 틀 안에서 한∙미∙일 3국이 대북정보를 통합하고 조정∙통제하는 정보체제가 필요하다. 따라서 북핵 대응을 위한‘한∙미∙일 통합조기경보체제(가칭)의 설립과 한∙ 일 군사정보보호협정 등을 촉진할 필요가 있다.

종합적 접근으로서의 정책실패 사례연구: 경전철 사업 사례를 중심으로

고길곤,이보라,이주현 서울대학교 한국행정연구소 2015 行政論叢 Vol.53 No.1

While case studies of policy failure have informed researchers not to simplify the causes and solutions of policy failure, they have attempted to resolve the puzzles of policy failures using a rudimentary lens. This paper categorizes empirical studies of policy failure into three theoretical approaches – rational, political, and complexity models - that reside in different philosophical perspectives. Nonetheless, this case study of three light rail transit projects reveal the significant limitations to policy learning when employing a single approach to explain the definition, causes, and solution of policy failure. Hence, this study proposes an integrative framework of policy failure research and apply it to the light rail transit project cases. The findings suggest that this multifaceted approach has the advantage of producing usable knowledge that can ultimately contribute to learning and correcting errors in public policy. 본 논문은 정책실패 사례분석의 여러 접근방법을 비판적 시각으로 살펴보고, 단편적 접근방법만으로 사례를 분석한 경우에 부딪힐 수 있는 한계를 점검하였다. 선행연구들은 각기 합리주의적, 정치적, 환경복잡성적 접근방법으로 실패의 개념, 원인 및 대안을 제시하였으나 연구마다 각 관점이 혼재되어 논리성과 일관성이 다소 결여된다는 한계가 드러났다. 본 논문은 정책실패 연구의 세 가지 접근방법을 포괄하는 분석틀을 도출하였으며, 이에 입각하여 부산-김해, 용인, 의정부 경전철 사업 사례분석을 수행하였다. 결과적으로 정책실패 사례분석에서 실패의 원인에 대한 다면적인 해석이 제시되지 않는 이상, 실패로부터의 학습과 정책수정이 잘 이루어지지 않을 수 있음을 검증하였다.

A digital technique for diagnosing interconnect degradation by using digital signal characteristics

Lee, J.,Kwon, D. Mackintosh Publications] 2017 Microelectronics Journal Vol.60 No.-

<P>Interconnects are responsible for mechanical and electrical connection of electronic components, and they are essential in the operation of electronic components. Suess-induced substances can degrade interconnect properties and functions because they exert stress conditions such as chemical stress to interconnects. Chemical stress from moisture or contaminants causes corrosion to interconnects, and as a result interconnect failures occur in which the interconnects cannot conduct the intended functions. Since interconnect failure disturbs the connection between electronic components, it can cause ensuing failures such as electronic failures. Many approaches have been developed to detect interconnect degradation and prevent ensuing failures. In industrial fields, approaches to detect interconnect failure based on DC resistance have been widely used since DC resistance can capture electrical discontinuity. However, approaches based on DC resistance have a problem because they usually require additional sensing devices or circuitries. This study introduces a new approach to interconnect failure detection using digital signals. The proposed method using digital signals detects interconnect failures without additional sensing devices. Interconnect failure detection can be conducted by monitoring and analyzing the signal characteristics of the transmitted signal because digital signal is continuously generated and transmitted in electronics to control the electronic components and communicate between the components, and also because digital signal is in high-speed, the characteristics of the transmitted digital signal is deteriorated by physical damages on transmitted circuitries such as corrosion on interconnects. We designed accelerated life tests (ALT) of interconnects under chemical stress in order to demonstrate failure detection capability. While solder joints were exposed to chemical stress and corroded gradually, the digital signal characteristics were monitored with DC resistance simultaneously and analyzed by Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPAT) to determine the times-to-failure of the solder joints. The test results demonstrated that the proposed approach based on digital signal can detect interconnect failures earlier than the DC resistance, which means that the proposed approach can enable electronic components to detect interconnect failures by themselves.</P>

RAIM algorithm considering simultaneous multiple ramp failures

Yun, Ho,Han, Deokhwa,Kee, Changdon,Lee, Jiyun,Heo, Moon Beom Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2015 Aircraft engineering and aerospace technology Vol.87 No.4

<P><B>Purpose</B></P> <P> – The purpose of this paper is to develop and analyze a new multiple hypothesis receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) algorithm, which can handle simultaneous multiple ramp failures. </P> <P><B>Design/methodology/approach</B></P> <P> – The proposed algorithm uses measurement residuals and satellite observation matrices of several consecutive epochs for failure detection and exclusion. It detects failures by monitoring the error vector rather than a projection of the error vector. The algorithm assumes that magnitude of range errors can vary with time, while the conventional sequential multiple hypothesis RAIM algorithm assumes that range errors are constant biases. </P> <P><B>Findings</B></P> <P> – The algorithm can detect any instance of multiple failures, including failures that cannot be detected by the conventional RAIM algorithm. It can detect multiple failures with magnitudes of several tens of meters, even though the algorithm must solve an ill-conditioned problem. And it can also deal with ramp failures which cannot be detected by conventional sequential multiple hypothesis RAIM algorithm. The detection capability of the proposed algorithm is not dependent on satellite geometry or types of errors. </P> <P><B>Practical implications</B></P> <P> – Implications for the development of the RAIM algorithm for aviation users are included. In particular, it can be a candidate for a future standard architecture in multiple constellations, multiple frequency and satellite-based augmentation system users. </P> <P><B>Originality/value</B></P> <P> – A new multiple hypothesis RAIM algorithm with a relative RAIM concept is proposed. Also presented is a detailed explanation of the algorithms, including rigorous mathematical expressions, and an analysis of differences in detection capability between the conventional multiple hypothesis RAIM algorithm and proposed algorithm.</P>

Orbit Ephemeris Failure Detection in a GNSS Regional Application

Jongsun Ahn,Young Jae Lee,Dae Hee Won,Hyang-Sig Jun,Chanhong Yeom,Sangkyung Sung,Jeong-Oog Lee 한국항공우주학회 2015 International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sc Vol.16 No.1

To satisfy civil aviation requirements using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), it is important to guarantee system integrity. In this work, we propose a fault detection algorithm for GNSS ephemeris anomalies. The basic principle concerns baseline length estimation with GNSS measurements (pseudorange, broadcasted ephemerides). The estimated baseline length is subtracted from the true baseline length, computed using the exact surveyed ground antenna positions. If this subtracted value differs by more than a given threshold, this indicates that an ephemeris anomaly has been detected. This algorithm is suitable for detecting Type A ephemeris failure, and more advantageous for use with multiple stations with various long baseline vectors. The principles of the algorithm, sensitivity analysis, minimum detectable error (MDE), and protection level derivation are described and we verify the sensitivity analysis and algorithm availability based on real GPS data in Korea. Consequently, this algorithm is appropriate for GNSS regional implementation.

Orbit Ephemeris Failure Detection in a GNSS Regional Application

Ahn, Jongsun,Lee, Young Jae,Won, Dae Hee,Jun, Hyang-Sig,Yeom, Chanhong,Sung, Sangkyung,Lee, Jeong-Oog The Korean Society for Aeronautical and Space Scie 2015 International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sc Vol.16 No.1

To satisfy civil aviation requirements using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), it is important to guarantee system integrity. In this work, we propose a fault detection algorithm for GNSS ephemeris anomalies. The basic principle concerns baseline length estimation with GNSS measurements (pseudorange, broadcasted ephemerides). The estimated baseline length is subtracted from the true baseline length, computed using the exact surveyed ground antenna positions. If this subtracted value differs by more than a given threshold, this indicates that an ephemeris anomaly has been detected. This algorithm is suitable for detecting Type A ephemeris failure, and more advantageous for use with multiple stations with various long baseline vectors. The principles of the algorithm, sensitivity analysis, minimum detectable error (MDE), and protection level derivation are described and we verify the sensitivity analysis and algorithm availability based on real GPS data in Korea. Consequently, this algorithm is appropriate for GNSS regional implementation.

Multiple-hypothesis RAIM algorithm with an RRAIM concept

Yun, Ho,Kee, Changdon Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2013 Aircraft engineering and aerospace technology Vol.86 No.1

<B>Purpose</B> - This paper aims to develop and analyse a new multiple-hypothesis receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm can handle simultaneous multiple failures as well as a single failure. <B>Design/methodology/approach</B> - The proposed algorithm uses measurement residuals and satellite observation matrices of several consecutive epochs for failure detection and exclusion. It detects failures by monitoring the error vector itself instead of monitoring the projection of the error vector. The algorithm reduces the minimum detectable bias via the relative receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RRAIM) scheme. <B>Findings</B> - The algorithm is able to detect any instance of multiple failures, including failures that are not detected by the conventional RAIM algorithm. It is able to detect multiple failures with magnitudes of several tens of meters, although the algorithm has to solve an ill-conditioning problem. The detection capability of the proposed algorithm is not dependent on satellite geometry. <B>Research limitations/implications</B> - The algorithm assumes that the error vectors in three consecutive epochs have biases of similar magnitude. As a result, although the algorithm detects occurrences of drifting error, it cannot identify which measurement(s) has the critical error. <B>Practical implications</B> - The paper includes implications for the development of the RAIM algorithm for aviation users. Especially, it can be a candidate for future standard architecture in multiple constellations, multiple frequency satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) users. <B>Originality/value</B> - The paper proposes a new multiple-hypothesis RAIM algorithm with an RRAIM concept. A detailed explanation of the algorithms, including rigorous mathematical expressions, is presented. The paper also includes an analysis of differences in detection capability between conventional algorithm and the proposed algorithm depending on satellite geometry.