사회체육 : 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 스포츠센터 고객 이탈 가능성 예측

박진기(JinKeePark) 한국체육학회 2003 한국체육학회지 Vol.42 No.3

The purpose of this study was to serve as a basis for more successful management of defector customers by fitness club through data mining, by seeking defection-based customer segment for fitness club monthly members and forecasting the probabilities of defection.SPSS Clementine’s C5.0 decision-making tree analysis, a data mining tool, was utilized to explore defection-based customer segment by fitness club and examine the defection probabilities.The findings of this study were as below.First, as a result of exploring defection-based customer segment, the parents node was composed of age, and the sibling node was constituted by job and complaint behavior. And the important variables to shape the children node were word-of-mouth marketing intention, facility satisfaction, marital status, repurchase intention, car ownership, leader satisfaction, presence or absence of test-taker child for college admission, and program satisfaction.Second, concerning the predictive values versus real ones, the model design data made an accurate prediction by 86.6% for the staying customers and 93.2% for the defector customer. Therefore, they had an outstanding predictive ability.The above-mentioned findings suggested that there was significant gap in the defection-based segment variables, and that the defection probability was predicted very well. Specifically, the defection prediction by data partition appeared to be very highly reliable and valid.Accordingly, it’s ascertained that customer segment by utilizing existing customer information is able to find out the defection trend, and that data mining is applicable to the sports market as part of retention marketing that could lower the defection rate, and as a way to formulate marketing strategy or marketing activity to cater to the actual needs of the market.

서비스 구매 행동 후 고객 이탈 요인에 관한 연구: 미용서비스를 중심으로

조재욱 한국미용예술경영학회 2023 미용예술경영연구 Vol.17 No.4

The customer defection factor of the beauty service industry was found in four elements of beauty service quality. The effects of interaction service quality, environment service quality, waiting service quality and outcome service quality on customer defection were empirically verified. And the strength of the influence of each factor of beauty service quality on customer defection was verified. In addition, each factor constituting beauty service quality was verified to have a moderating effect of switching cost on customers’ defection intention after experiencing beauty service. As the result of the study, if the quality of beauty service was high, it had a positive effect on reducing customer defection. And the result of analyzing the size of the relative strength of each factor on the customer defection intention was in the following order: outcome service quality, interaction service quality and waiting service quality. But in the case of environment service quality, it was found to be insignificant and was excluded from the relative influence. Regarding the moderating effect of switching cost, interaction service quality, environment service quality, and outcome service quality were shown significant results in the customers’ defection intention. However, in the case of waiting service quality, there was no moderating effect in relation to customers’ defection intention. Through this study, service providers can reduce customer defection by improving beauty service quality and increasing switching costs. In addition, performing a marketing strategy in consideration of the strength of each factor of beauty service quality can retain existing customers and increase customer satisfaction to become loyal customers. Through this, it can be used as a means of differentiation to strengthen competitiveness in the beauty service environment.

Data Mining Methodology for Predicting Defection Process using Sequential Behavior Data

최준연 한국경영공학회 2009 한국경영공학회지 Vol.14 No.2

Predicting customers' defection, switching from one service provider to another, is an important issue in data mining research. This paper proposes an integrated methodology that identifies sequential patterns of defection through mining their behavioral data for predicting each user's defection. By means of the proposed methodology, we can find the sequential pattern of gradual defection and help prevent any current customer's defection. For this purpose, we suggest a 3-stage methodology that integrates moving average detection and sequential pattern mining. The methodology can identify crucial changes of behavior without a predefined time period. Therefore an active monitoring that gives an 'alarm' when a potential defector pattern appears can be implemented. To enhance performance of discovering rules, we propose an efficient algorithm which finds frequent defection patterns and a method to measure the strength of each rule. Evaluation of our method was conducted using the lift factor. The empirical results show that there is a high degree of predictive confidence.

A Model Development to Predict Customer's Defection in a Bank

김대룡,김찬목 한국로고스경영학회 2011 로고스경영연구 Vol.9 No.3

This paper has developed a model to predict customers’ defection and to apply the result of the model into a bank's marketing and IT strategies. This paper utilized data mining techniques to develop a model that can predict the defection rate of a bank's customers. Data mining is defined as a technique to extract useful information from large amounts of data and to find out relationships, patterns, and rules among data in order to use them in various corporate decisions makings. A logit, one of artificial neural network tools, and a decision treemodel are used to predict customers’ defection in this paper. This study selected more variables that are related to customers’ account information of a bank as significant predictors that influence on the customers’ defection. The result of this study revealed meaningful facts that other banks would take them as lessons. That is, the more customers who have cancelled their deferred savings accounts after the account matured, and the greater the number of the deferred savings accounts customers currently have, the lower the tendency of defection of customers from a bank. The result also indicated that customers who had higher rate of average balance in deferred savings accounts when it’s compared to aggregate amount of the deposits, or customers who had higher number of demand deposits tend to defect from a bank more easily. The model provides banks with marketing tools such as cross-selling, calculation of customer's profit contribution, evaluation of customer's lifetime value, and customer segmentation to manage their customers. The result of the model also gives a meaningful lesson to IT field, too. The tools used to predict customers’ defection in this paper were useful, but analytical tool users have to be very careful to utilize various variables to improve the model's prediction power.

온라인 게임의 고객 유형 별 이탈 요인

손정민(Jungmin Son),조우용(Wooyong Jo),최정혜(Jeonghye Choi) 한국경영과학회 2014 한국경영과학회지 Vol.39 No.4

The game industry has grown steadily and the online game has become one of the most attractive game segments for its remarkable growth. Customer management in the online game industry, however, has received little attention from the academic field. The purpose of this study is to analyze the drivers of customer defection in the online game setting and suggest not only theoretical but also managerial insights into increasing customer retention rates. Prior to empirical analysis, the authors hypothesized that 3 variables of interests (Learning, Playing, Achievement) would explain the customer defection according to preceeding researches. To demonstrate these hypotheses, the authors obtained data from one of the biggest game publishers in Korea, and the empirical analysis model was developed considering context of research settings. The results of analyses provide the following insights. First, the key behavioral variables of Learning, Playing, and Achievement play substantial roles in explaining the customer defection. Next, the effects of these variables vary between customer types: novice and experienced customers. The defection decisions by novice customers are predicted by all key behavioral variables and Playing serves as the most influential indicator of the defection decisions. However, experienced customers are influenced by Playing and Achievement, while Learning has no impact on the defection decisions. Finally, the authors investigated hypothetical customer retention strategies, using the empirical results. The market outcomes indicate that the customer retention strategies work well with novice customers and it is hard-to-impossible to prevent experienced customers from defection using their behavioral data. These findings together deliver several meaningful insights to management as follow. First, the management should support customers to get involved in Learning activities at the very first stage. Second, customer’s Achievement and appropriate compensation for it would work as defection barriers. Last, to optimize the outcomes of firm’s marketing investments, it is better to focus on retention of novice users not experienced ones.

영업사원-고객 간 관계의 질이 고객의 동반이탈에 미치는 영향 : 관계혜택과 전환비용의 역할

임시혁(Lim Sihyuk),임영균(Lim Young Kyun) 한국유통학회 2011 流通硏究 Vol.16 No.1

본 연구는 영업사원-고객간 관계에서 영업사원과 고객 간의 관계특성이 영업사원 이직에 따른 고객의 동반이탈의도에 미치는 영향을 검증하고 있다. 본 연구는 동반이탈의 선행변수로 관계마케팅에서의 핵심 개념인 관계의 질, 즉 영업사원에 대한 고객만족, 고객신뢰, 고객충성도와 함께 사회교환이론에서의 관계혜택과 전환비용을 다루고 있다. 국내 생명보험회사를 대상으로 보험계약에서 영업사원을 통해 가입한 503명의 고객으로부터 서베이 방식으로 수집한 자료를 실증분석한 결과, 영업사원에 대한 고객만족과 고객신뢰가 영업사원에 대한 고객충성도에는 강한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었으나 동반이탈에는 직접적인 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 고객의 영업사원에 대한 충성도가 지각된 관계 혜택에 미치는 영향은 모두 유의하였으며 또한 지각된 전환비용에 미치는 영향도 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 고객의 영업사원에 대한 충성도가 동반이탈의도에 미치는 직접효과는 유의하지 않았으나 지각된 관계혜택과 지각된 전환비용을 통한 간접효과는 유의하게 나타났다. 지각된 관계혜택의 세 가지 하위차원은 모두 동반이탈의도에 정(+)의 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고, 지각된 전환비용은 동반이탈의도에 부(-)의 유의적 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 추가분석을 통하여 경쟁모델과 연구모델을 비교하여 기존 연구와의 차이를 밝히고 있으며, 분석 결과를 토대로 이론 및 경영상의 시사점을 제시하고 있다. This research investigates the influence of relational characteristics on 'co-defection', customer defection following salesperson turnover, in the context of salesperson-customer relationship. Based on the social exchange theory, it was hypothesized that perceived relational benefits and switching costs affect directly the customer's intentions to defect. Key constructs in relationship marketing such as customer satisfaction, trust, and loyalty were hypothesized to affect the customer's intention to defect as well as perceived relational benefits and switching costs. The results of structural equation modeling using a survey sample of 503 insurance customers who purchased life insurance pclicies through salespersons unveiled that the customer satisfaction with salesperson awl the customer trust in salesperson strongly influence the salesperson-owned customer loyalty. However, they did not have significant direct effects on co-defection intentions. All paths from salesperson-owned customer loyalty to perceived relational benefits and perceived switching costs were also significant. Salesperson-owned customer loyalty did not have significant direct effects on co-defection intentions, but it had significant indirect effects on co-defection intentions through relational benefits and switching costs. Three sub-dimensions of perceived relational benefits had significant positive effects on co-defection intentions while the perceived switching costs had significant negative effects on co-defection intentions. The significance of our research findings were verified by comparing the hypothesized model and the rival model in the past studies.

탈북사태를 둘러싼 동북아지역의 갈등과협력

오수열(Soo-Yeol Oh),김주삼(Joo-Sam Kim) 한국통일전략학회 2006 통일전략 Vol.6 No.1

북한의 정치군사적 문제와 달리 북한인권과 탈북자문제는 그동안 국내 및 국제사회에서 단편적이고 일회성 관심 속에 간헐적으로 제기되곤 하였다. 탈냉전시대 북한체제 붕괴 가능성에 대한 섣부른 낙관론과 햇볕정책하에서 남북화해와 교류협력의 일방적 독주에 밀려 냉전시대와 큰 차이없이 부차적 현안으로 취급되었다. 그러나 북한인권과 탈북자문제는 북한체제 개혁과 발전의 목표이며 남북관계 개선과 통일을 설계하는 시금석이 되어야 한다. 북한 인권 실태를 북한법과 국제기구에서의 자료를 통해 검증하고 탈북자문제는 탈북자들의 국내정착의 시대적 변천과정을 살펴봄으로써 문제점과 전략적 대안들을 제시하였다. 특히 북한인권과 탈북자문제는 미국의 대북정책과 2004년 발효된 북한인권법이 중요한 변수로 작용하고 있어 이에 대한 실상과 문제점도 분석하였다. 향후 북한인권과 탈북자문제를 통일전략의 일환으로 상정할 경우 첫째, 국제사회에서 북한의 전반적인 인권개선을 위한 요구를 지속적으로 제기할 필요가 있다. 이를 통해 북한 주민과 엘리트들에게 희망과 대안의 목표를 전달할 수 있고 북한 당국 역시 이러한 국제사회의 권고사항에 대해 전면 거부하지 못하는 상황을 유리하게 활용할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 북한의 경제사회적 인권의 경우에도 국제사회의 적극적인 개입을 통해서만이 주민들에게 실질적인 혜택이 돌아갈 수 있다. 따라서 자유권과 함께 생존권은 상호 연계하여 개선책을 촉구하는 것이 바람직하다. 셋째, 탈북자의 경우 국제사회 특히 우리 사회의 적극적이고 효율적인 지원정책이 민관협조하에 체계화될 필요가 있다. 그렇지 못할 경우 탈북자들의 미국 망명 증가로 통일과정에서의 우리의 입지가 축소될 위험성도 있다. 이같은 전략적 함의를 통해 향후 남북평화공존 뿐만 아니라 돌발사태 및 급속한 통일환경에 대비하는 전략이 종합적으로 추진되어야 할 것이다. This paper examines the South-North Korean problem attributable to North Korean defectors and the conflicts of interests and cooperation among the countries in the region surrounding the massive North Korean defection. The number of North Korean defectors has steadily risen since 2000, and the forms and motivations of their defection are getting more diversified. The massive North Korean defection to South Korea via a third country in 2004 worsened the South-North Korean relationship for quite some time. However, the seriousness of this issue lies in the fact that North Korean defection, growing in number year after year, is escalating into a diplomatic issue among the neighboring countries of Korea despite the improvement of the system for their resettlement in South Korea. In particular, forced repatriation of North Korean defectors aimed at stabilization and maintenance of the North Korean regime and China's diplomatic actions against illegal immigrants who smuggle into China through the borders have a substantial influence on the relationship between North Korea and China and that between China and the US. If North Korean defectors choose to go to Korea through a third country, South Korea cannot but grant permission. This situation is sure to put South Korea into a dilemma as she has to take both the inter-Korean relationship and international human rights into consideration at the same time. The US is attempting to transform and bring collapse to the North Korean regime while using North Korean defection to raise issue with China's human rights and put spotlight on the North Korean nuclear issue and human rights in North Korea. The US' approach to the North Korean defection issue is not helping peace on the Korean peninsula at all. Efforts must be made to improve North Korea's economic viability to prevent massive defection, and to seek humanitarian cooperation to guarantee the stability of Northeast Asia amidst regional conflicts caused by North Korean defection.

협력이냐 배신이냐?: 죄수의 딜레마와 신뢰구축

김영조 ( Young Joe Kim ) 한국윤리경영학회(구 한국기업윤리학회) 2015 윤리경영연구 Vol.15 No.1

본 연구는 양 팀 간에 죄수의 딜레마 게임을 실시하고 게임 진행과정에서 나타나는 행동 및 그 결과를 분석하였다. 구체적으로 게임 참가자들이 ‘협력’과 ‘배신’ 중에 어떠한 행동을 취하는지 분석하였으며, 이러한 의사결정의 영향요인과 결과를 분석하였다. 연구결과, 첫째 양 팀이 상호 협력한 경우(43.6%)보다 비협력적 게임을 한 경우(56.4%)가 더 많았는데, 이는 상대 팀을 이용하고자 하는 이기적 동기 또는 상대 팀으로부터 자기팀을 방어하기 위한 목적에서 비롯된 것이었다. 둘째, 어느 한 팀이 약속을 어기고 배신을 하는 경우 다른 팀도 대부분 배신으로 응수하고, 이 경우 신뢰를 회복하는 것이 어려운 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 각 팀의 이득은 양 팀이 배신을 많이 하면 할수록 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 게임 초반에는 상대적으로 협력적인 게임을 많이 하는 반면, 게임 종반으로 갈수록 협력적 게임이 현격하게 줄어들고 비협력적 게임이 증가하였다. 다섯째, 게임 참가자들은 의사결정을 하는 과정에서 윤리적 딜레마를 경험하고, 이에 대해 합리화, 투사와 죄책감 등의 심리적 방어기제를 보였다. 이러한 연구결과가 신뢰경영 및 윤리경영에 제공해주는 시사점에 대해 논의하였다. This study conducted iterated prisoner’s dilemma games and analyzed the participants’ choices of cooperation or defection and their consequential outcomes. The result showed that the total cases of unilateral or mutual defection (56.4%) outnumbered those of mutual cooperation (43.6%). The reason of defection may be attributed to either the egoistic motive to exploit other party or the purpose to defend themselves against the other party’s exploitive strategy. Second, one party also reciprocated if the other party defected, and thereafter, in most of these cases, trust could hardly be restored. Third, the number of defections committed were significantly and negatively correlated to the bottom line. Fourth, the number of defections increased noticeably when approaching the last stage of games. Fifth, the participants experienced the ethical dilemma when they made decisions of defecting, and they used psychological defensive mechanisms such as rationalization, projection, and sense of guilty as a coping strategy to this dilemma. The implications of these results for the trust-building and business ethics were discussed.

중국 디디추싱 정황에서 고객만족과 이탈의도에 관한 연구 -조절된 조절모형을 중심으로-

지로요,하홍열 한중사회과학학회 2021 한중사회과학연구 Vol.19 No.2

This study aims at investigating the customer satisfaction-customer defection intention linkage in the context of Chinese sharing vehicle services, particularly in the focus on Didi Chuxing. Especially, we analyze the moderated moderation effects of both perceived service quality and personal safety using Process Macro (M=3). The results are quate interesting and provide research insights as follows. First, customer defection intentions increase when customer satisfaction is low. Second, customer defection intentions increase when perceived service quality is low. Third, customer defection intentions increase if customers perceive that perceived service quality; however, this effect must be conditionally accompanied by the low level of personal safety. Finally, although the level of customer satisfaction is high, customers defect. Interestingly, if customers perceive that service quality is high, the possibility of customer defection is relatively low. We provides research insights for scholars and practitioners and offer further research directions. 본 연구는 중국 소비자를 대상으로, 차량공유서비스 대표적인 기업인 디디추싱에 대한 고객만족과 이탈의도의 관계를 분석한다. 본 연구에서 특히 지각된 서비스품질의 조절효과 및 신변안전성의 조절적 조절효과를 회귀분석 Process Macro롤 이용하여 분석한다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 고객만족 수준이 낮을 때 고객의 이탈가능성은 높아진다. 둘째, 전반적으로 서비스품질 수준이 낮다고 인지하고 고객집단에서 이탈가능성이 높아진다. 셋째, 고객만족-이탈의도의 관계는 서비스품질 수준이 낮고, 신변안전성 수준이 낮다고 인지하는 고객집단에서 더욱 나타난다. 마지막으로, 고객만족 수준이 높아도 고객은 이탈하지만, 서비스품질 수준이 높다고 지각하면 이탈가능성이 상대적으로 낮게 나타난다. 본 연구의 결과를 기반으로, 연구자들은 시사점 및 향후 연구에 대한 제언을 제공한다.

사회체육 : 데이터 마이닝 기법간의 스포츠센터 고객 이탈가능 예측성 평가

박진기(ParkJinGi) 한국체육학회 2003 한국체육학회지 Vol.42 No.5

The present study was conducted to predict the probability of defection from the membership in the monthly members of a fitness club by segmenting them into defector customers and maintainers. Through this process, it attempted to provide a basis for more successful management of potential defection, by introducing data mining.All the analysis tools were compared with one another to determine which one was the most effective in predicting the probability of membership defection. As a result, the prediction rate was highest in C5.0 (83.19%), and then Neural Networks (75.21%), logistic regression analysis (69.52%) and CART (68.17%) followed it. The cross-tabulation analysis conducted to compare the predicted values yield by these 4 analyses demonstrated that the values corresponded with one another by 89.47%. Therefore, C5.0 was found to be the best analysis tool that have highest rate of prediction.Collectively, the above-mentioned findings suggested that C5.0 was found to be more effective than Neural Networks, logistic regression analysis or CART in the final stage of developing the fitness club membership defection prediction.Applying these prediction models to customer management and business strategy, fitness club management or decision makers will be able to maximize the effects of customer-relations marketing.Customer segmentation using the existing customer information would make it possible to figure out the characteristics of those who discontinue their membership. Finally, data mining is necessary in orienting the marketing strategies and activities in the sports consumer market so that they satisfy the actual needs of the market. In this connection, it is confirmed that data mining could be introduced to this market as part of the customer retention marketing efforts.