Development of A Novel Framework for Liquid Bulk Cargo Volume Analysis

Suhyeon Kim,Wonho Sohn,Dongcheol Lim,Junghye Lee 대한산업공학회 2019 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2019 No.11

Port cargo volume analysis is a challenging task for researchers because of non-stationary and highly volatile data affected by external factors. Nevertheless, it is important to establish an analysis system for the port cargo volume as the analysis of the port cargo volume can provide information on the establishment of strategies for port planning and management. In this paper, we propose a new framework to analyze port cargo volume, which consists of three parts: item segmentation, exploratory data analysis, and time series forecasting specifically for liquid bulk cargo volume. We firstly create an item dictionary containing main keywords to characterize each item and then categorize items based on the dictionary. Next, we perform an exploratory data analysis to understand the volume characteristics of each subcategorized item. Lastly, we use representation learning- and deep learning-based time series techniques to forecast their port volume and compare the results with existing statistical models. Experimental results for the three steps show the usefulness of our novel framework in several aspects including forecasting accuracy. It is believed that our proposed method will be a helpful system for stakeholders in port logistics to have insights and to make better decisions.

항만인센티브제도의 효과에 대한 정량적 분석

하명신(Myungsin Ha),김철민(Chulmin Kim),장병기(Byoungky Chang) 한국항만경제학회 2011 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.27 No.2

동북아 물류중심지가 되겠다는 목표 하에 환적화물유치 증대를 위한 다양한 인센티브 제도를 실시하고 있다. 그러나 인센티브제도의 실질적인 효과에 대한 검증 없이 경쟁적으로 인센티브만 증가시키고 있다는 우려가 제기되고 있다. 터미널간 요율경쟁에 추가하여 지나친 인센티브경쟁으로 인해 가뜩이나 낮은 생산성을 가진 국내항만이 오히려 경쟁력 저하를 가져오지 않을까 우려되기도 한다. 따라서 본 연구는 부산항이 환적화물 유치증대를 위해 2004년부터 실시해온 볼륨인센티브제도가 과연 부산항의 환적화물 증대에 기여해 왔는지 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 기존의 연구들과 달리 각종 계량분석기법들을 적용하여 정량화된 분석을 시도하였다. ARIMA 타입의 모형과 공적분분석에 의한 장기균형모형을 구축한 후 모형의 예측치와 실제치를 비교함으로서 인센티브제도가 환적물량의 증대를 가져왔는지 검정하였다. 또한 인센티브제도의 도입이 모형의 구조변화를 가져왔는지 검정함으로서 인센티브효과에 대한 유의성을 확인하였다. ARIMA 타입의 모형들을 이용한 분석결과에 의하면 제도시행 7년간 총 100만 TEU 내외의 물량증가가 발생한 것으로 추정되었다. 한편 장기균형식을 이용한 분석결과에 의하면 7년간의 환적물량 증가효과가 총 50만 TEU미만인 것으로 나타났다. 한편 인센티브제도 도입으로 인한 구조변화를 검정한 결과 ARIMA모형과 장기균형식 모두에서 인센티브 더미변수가 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 인센티브제도의 도입이 부산항의 환적물량모형의 변화를 가져오지 못한 것으로 나타났다. 분석결과들을 종합해보면 다소 환적물량의 증가효과는 있었던 것으로 추정되나 모형의 변화를 유발할 만큼의 유의한 변화는 가져오지 못한 것으로 판단된다. 특히 부산항만공사의 막대한 투입비용을 고려할 때 그 성과는 불충분한것으로 판단된다. Various incentive policies for transshipment cargo have been enforced without any evaluation of the effectiveness. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volume incentive on container transshipment cargo. To be different from previous studies, this study tries to quantitatively assess the incentive effects by using econometric techniques. The result derived from the ARIMA type models indicates that the total amount of the increased transshipment cargo during the last 7 years is about one million TEU. In the meanwhile, the multivariate long run equilibrium model implies that the increased transshipment cargo is less than 0.5 million TEU for the 7 years. Furthermore, the structural break tests indicate that the volume incentive does not change the model structures. It means that the effect of volume incentive is not statistically significant. Consequently, the test results conclude the effect of volume incentive on transshipment cargo is not significant although the volume of transshipment cargo is increased to some extent by volume incentive. Considering the magnitude of BPA’s expenditure, we doubt the effectiveness of volume incentive. This study, therefore, encourages the port authority to research a more efficient way to induce transshipment cargo rather than focusing on only volume incentives.

택배요금기준의 합리적 재설정에 관한 연구

조윤성,이태휘 한국유통과학회 2012 유통과학연구 Vol.10 No.5

In Korea, the parcel delivery service was launched officially in 1992, and the market has grown to 13.2 billion units, or 3.5 trillion won, as of 2011. The service companies accept small packages under 30 kg and deliver them on the next day in most domestic areas. This service plays an important role in business and personal activities. The parcel service companies have themselves designed the tariff for the delivery service based on two criteria: weight and the sum of three side lengths. Further, the tariff is graded in steps of three or four rate structures based on size (small, medium, large, and extra-small). However, the basic freight rate is generally decided according to the cargo’s weight or measurement size, and an extra rate is added according to some factors (handling, stowability, liability, and so on). The parcel service tariff adopted by the companies is illogically designed, and this study was carried out to assess the need for redesigning the tariff structure. The cargo volume cannot be logically reflected by three side lengths. For example, two parcels measuring 160 cm based on three side lengths may have different volumes, one measuring 0.152 cbm (53.33 cm × 53.33 cm × 53.34 cm) and the other 0.05 cbm (100 cm × 50 cm × 10 cm). A small package of less than120 cm (sum of three side lengths) may have a volume of as much as 0.064 cbm (40 cm × 40 cm × 40 cm). Sample comparison showed that 17% of medium-size parcels (based on the sum of three side lengths) are small-volume packages, 24% of large-size parcels are small- or medium-volume packages, and 40% of extra-big-size parcels are big- or under-size packages. Therefore, if parcel service companies rate their services for volume cargo based on the three side lengths standard, users may have to pay higher than normal rates, particularly because a large percentage of parcels are volume cargo. According to this study, the average weight per 1 cbm is less than 300 kg. Therefore, users face an increasing risk of paying higher than logical freight charges. Generally, transportation companies are called “public interest enterprises,” and parcel service companies operate as postal services. Public interest enterprises must provide the delivery service to all customers without discrimination at a reasonable service level and logical service charges. Therefore, parcels service tariffs must be designed and adopted logically. In this study, freight theories and prior research findings were used to consider the importance of freight rates, and distortion of parcel service rates based on the three side lengths system was verified through regression analysis of a parcel sample and sample comparison. In conclusion, volume sizes based on three side lengths have a higher correlation to the rate level than does the sum of three side lengths. Further, compared to the sum of three side lengths, volume size has a higher correlation to cargo weight, which is the most basic factor determining transportation cost. Therefore, the existing parcel service tariff should be changed to weight- and volume-based rates, and the tariff must be graded in steps of 8 to 10 higher rate structures for a logical freight schedule based on service cost.

System Dynamics를 활용한 인천항 철재화물 물동량 예측에 관한 연구

박성일(Sungil Park),정현재(Hyunjae Jung),전준우(Junwoo Jeon),여기태(Gitae Yeo) 한국항만경제학회 2012 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.28 No.2

제조산업의 핵심 원자재인 철재화물은 항만의 처리 물동량 증대를 위한 주요화물로 자리잡고 있다. 특히 인천항의 경우 철재화물 처리실적이 타 화물에 비해 비중이 높아 항만 활성화를 위한 주요 화물이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 측면에서 인천항을 운영하는 인천항만공사는 인천항 북항지역에 철재화물과 같은 주요 벌크화물을 처리할 수 있는 전용선석 및 배후지를 북항지역에 개발하여 운영하고 있다. 하지만 실제 처리물동량이 개발 당시 예측되었던 물동량에 비해 저조한 실적을 보이면서 운영상 어려움에 직면해있다. 이러한 결과는 국내외 다양한 경제지표를 반영한 벌크화물의 수요예측이 이루어지지 못한 결과로 판단된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용하여 국내 철재화물 관련 산업 경기 및 세계 경제상황을 고려한 인천항 철재화물 예측을 시도하였다. 그 결과 인천항에서 처리되는 철재화물 물동량은 2011년 약 8백만 톤을 시작으로 2020년 약 1천만 톤이 처리될 것이라 예측되었다. 예측치의 정확도를 검증하기 위해 절대평균오차비율을 적용한 결과 0.0013으로 정확도가 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. The steel cargoes as the core raw materials for the manufacturing industry have important roles for increasing the handling volume of the port. In particular, steel cargoes are fundamental to vitalize Port of Incheon because they have recognized as the primary key cargo items among the bulk cargoes. In this respect, the IPA(Incheon Port Authority) ambitiously developed the port complex facilities including dedicated terminals and its hinterland in northern part of Incheon. However, these complex area has suffered from low cargo handling records and has faced operational difficulties due to decreased net profits. In general, the import and export steel cargo volumes are sensitively fluctuated followed by internal and external economy index. There is a scant of research for forecasting the steel cargo volume in Incheon port which used in various economy index. To fill the research gap, the aim of this research is to predict the steel cargoes of Port of Incheon using the well established methodology i.e. System Dynamics. As a result, steel cargoes volume dealt with in Incheon port is forecasted from about 8 million tons to about 10 million tons during simulation duration (2011-2020). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is measured as 0.0013 which verifies the model"s accuracy.

시계열 데이터를 활용한 항공 화물 물동량 영향 요인에 관한 연구 : 인천-상하이, 광저우, 톈진, 베이징을 중심으로

신승연(Seung-Youn Sin),문승진(Seung-Jin Moon),박인무(In-Mu Park),안정민(Jeong-Min Ahn),한용희(Yong-Hee Han) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2020 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.43 No.4

Economic indicators are a factor that affects air cargo volume. This study analyzes the different factors affecting air cargo volume by each Chinese cities according to the main characteristics. The purpose of this study is to help companies related to China, airlines, and other stakeholders predict and prepare for the fluctuations in air cargo volume and make optimal decisions. To this end, 20 economic data were used, and the entire data was reduced to 5 dimensions through factor analysis to build a dataset necessary and evaluated the influencing factors by multi regression. The result shows that Macro-Economic Indicators, Production/Service indicators are significant for every cities and Chinese manufacture/Customer indicators, Korean manufacture/Oil Price indicators, Trade/Current indicators are significant for each other city. All adjusted R2 values are high enough to explain our model and the result showed excellent performance in terms of analyzing the different factors which affects air cargo volume. If companies that are currently doing business with China can identify factors affecting China s cargo volume, they can be flexible in response to changes in plans such as plans to enter China, production plans and inventory management, and marketing strategies, which can be of great help in terms of corporate operations.

국내 석유화학제품 처리항만의 포지셔닝 분석에 관한 연구

공정민 ( Gong Jeong-min ),김유나 ( Kim Yu-na ),최영서 ( Choi Young-seo ),여기태 ( Yeo Gi-tae ) 한국해운물류학회 2023 해운물류연구 Vol.39 No.1

석유화학 제조업체들은 원료인 납사 혹은 천연가스와 공업용수의 원활한 수급을 위해 주로 해안에 대규모 공장을 구축하고 있어, 인근 항만의 수출 물동량에 많은 영향을 끼치고 있다. 본 연구는 석유화학산업의 2012년부터 2021년까지 10년간의 수출 물동량 데이터 분석을 통해 석유화학 제품의 수출이 이루어지고 있는 항만 중 연평균 1만 톤 이상을 처리하는 9개 항만의 집중도와 경쟁관계, 포지셔닝을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 분석결과, 부산항은 물동량 증가와 함께 석유화학제품 수출 물동량의 집중도가 증가하는 모습을 보였다. 부산항은 대부분 기간 동안 물동량이 유입되고 있었으며, 대산항, 평택·당진항은 모든 분석 기간 동안 물동량을 빼앗기는 것으로 나타났다. 국내 최대 석유화학 산업단지인 여수, 대산, 울산 산업단지의 인근항인 광양항, 대산항, 울산항은 물동량이 타 항만으로 이동되고 있으며, 특히 대산항은 경쟁력 확보에 많은 노력이 필요한 것으로 분석되었다. Petrochemical manufacturers are building large-scale factories mainly on the coast to ensure the smooth supply of raw materials, such as naphtha or natural gas and industrial water, and are thus greatly affecting the export cargo volumes of nearby ports. The purpose of this study was to analyze the export cargo volume data of the petrochemical industry from 2012-2021 in order to understand the degrees of concentration, competitive relationships, and positioning of nine ports that handle at least 10,000 tons of petrochemical products per year on average. According to the results of the analysis, in the case of Busan Port, the degree of concentration of petrochemical product cargo increased along with increases in the cargo volumes. In Busan Port, cargo volumes were increasing during most of this period, while in Daesan Port, Pyeongtaek Port, and Dangjin Port, cargo volumes were changing during the entire period. In Gwangyang Port, Daesan Port, and Ulsan Port, located close to Yeosu, Daesan, and Ulsan, respectively, which have the largest petrochemical industrial complexes in South Korea, cargo volumes were changing, and in particular, in the case of Daesan Port, a lot of effort was considered necessary to ensure competitiveness.

부산항 항만하역시장 안정화 방안에 관한 연구

류동근(Dong-Keun Ryoo),최진이(Jin-Yi Choi),김태균(Tae-Goun Kim) 한국항해항만학회 2012 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.36 No.10

항만간 허브항 경쟁이 극심해 지고 있는 오늘날, 컨테이너 선사는 M&A 및 전략적 제휴로 컨테이너터미널 운영사와의 가격 협상력의 우월적 지위를 갖게 되어 컨테이너터미널 운영사간에 선사 및 화물유치를 위한 경쟁을 더욱 부추기고 있다. 그러나 수요측면에서 컨테이너물동량 증가율 둔화로 컨테이너터미널에서 처리해야 할 물동량은 한정되어 있는 반면, 공급 측면에서 항만터미널의 지속적인 건설은 항만간 또는 터미널간 물량 유치경쟁을 과열시키고 있다. 특히 부산항은 신항 개장이후 북항과 신항간 물동량 유치경쟁으로 인하여 항만하역시장의 교란을 가져오고 있다. 본 연구에서는 부산항 컨테이너 항만하역시장의 구조적 특성분석과 설문조사 방법론을 통하여 향후 부산항 항만하역시장의 안정화 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 하역시장 안정화 방안으로 항만하역 요율결정체계 개선, 요금신고제도의 개선 및 공정경쟁규약의 제정 등과 같은 법•제도적 개선방안과 컨테이너터미널 운영사별 처리물량 상한제를 도입을 전제로한 항만풀링제도 및 물량연동 임대료제도의 도입방안을 제안한다. Today, the competition for hub-port is getting fierce and the shipping liners have enjoyed the increased bargaining power over the terminal operators through the mergers & acquisitions (M&A) and strategic alliances. This result leads the competition among terminal operators to attract liner companies and cargoes in their terminals. In demand side, however, there is a limited container cargo volume to handle because of a steady growth of cargo traffic. While, in supply side, continuous development of port terminals increased more competition among ports or terminals for cargoes. In particular the terminal operating market of Busan port is distorted because of the cargo competition between Busan North-port and Newport. The main purpose of this study is to suggest the stabilization measures of container terminal operating market in Busan port through analysis of the terminal operation market structures and market survey analysis method. For stabilizing the container terminal market, this study suggests the improvement of the legal and institutional system such as improvement in determining and reporting system of stevedoring tariff, establishment of fair competition rules etc., the introduction of port pooling system and adoption of volume-linked terminal lease system with cargo volume ceiling system for each terminal operator.

A Study on Estimating Container Throughput in Korean Ports using Time Series Data

Kim, A-Rom,Lu, Jing Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research 2016 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.40 No.2

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

A Study on Estimating Container Throughput in Korean Ports using Time Series Data

A-Rom Kim,Jing Lu 한국항해항만학회 2016 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.40 No.2

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

A Study on Estimating Container Throughput in Korean Ports using Time Series Data

A Rom Kim,Jing Lu 한국항해항만학회 2016 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.40 No.2

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.