산업연관분석을 이용한 중국 철강산업의 경제적 파급효과 실증분석 -생산유발효과, 수입유발효과, 부가가치유발효과를 중심으로-

안병국 ( Byung Kuk Ahn ),최영훈 ( Young Hun Choi ) 한중사회과학학회 2014 한중사회과학연구 Vol.12 No.1

Iron&Steel is key industry in China, which plays an important role in terms of GDP, tax revenue, and employment. Furthermore, because of it`s characteristic of grouping, steel industry`s contribution, at the province level, is more significant. China`s steel industry had kept it`s quantitative expansion since the foundation of China in 1949, and became world`s largest crude steel producing country in 1996. In 2012, China`s crude steel production stands at 708 million metric tons, accounting for 47% of world`s crude steel production. According to China`s 12th Five-Year Plan of Iron&Steel, which is backbone for steel industry policy of China, restructuring, rationalization of steel mill`s distribution, procurement of raw materials, and enhancement of globalization will be emphasized for sustainable growth of steel industry. In order for proving steel industry`s importance in China, this study, through input-output model, conducted empirical analysis on Chinese steel industry`s economic effect such as production induced effect, import induced effect, added value induced effect, forward linkage effect, and backward linkage effect etc.. And on the basis of literature survey, this study looked into Chinese steel industry`s historical development path and it`s outlook. Research results shows that steel industry ranked first among China`s 42 industry in terms of production induced effect. And China`s steel industry, with the help of government`s policy support, is expected to see both quantitative expansion and also qualitative improvement, with China maintaining it`s hegemony in global steel industry.

The Research on the Sustainable growth of Listed Companies in Chinese Steel Industry

LI Gui rong,WANG Wei 한국경영교육학회 2012 한국경영교육학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2012 No.6

Steel industry is one of the important raw materials industries in China. In the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, steel industry is included in the plan for ten big industries to be adjusted and developed, which shows its important position in the national economy. In the first 10 years of this century, continuous and extraordinary growth is a prominent feature of China's steel industry. Between the year 2000-2010, steel production has rose from 127 million tons to more than 600 million tons, an increase of about 4 times, which built a solid foundation for a big steel country and made China a veritable big country famous for steel production. At the same time, the rapid development of China's steel industry has also resulted in tremendous energy and resource consumption, which influences the industry's sustainable growth and hinder Chinato become a powerful country of iron and steel based on qualitative and quantitative standards. Extensive growth mode, merely pursuing the increase of quantity, is not desirable. It is very important for China to seek a sustainable growth pattern for steel industry. This paper studies sustainable growth of China's steel industry from a financial point of view, which will contribute to systematically analyze the sustainable growth of the listed companies in China, to identify the problems and make more evidence-based, sensible decisions in marketing, finance and manufacturing. Also, the studies can provide timely guidance for the growth strategies of other steel companies which have been listed, to be listed, and other small and medium enterprises to promote their healthy and stable developments. And it will lay a solid foundation for the sustainable development of China's steel industry and plays an important role for China in becoming a powerful country of iron and steel.Based on the theory of enterprises' sustainable development, this essay has made a comparative analysis on typical models of sustainable growth and analyzed the internal and external factors affecting listed companies' sustainable growth. Based on the development status of listed companies in China's steel industry, this essay selected 33 companies in the steel industry listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 2006 after removed those having special conditions, such as "ST" companies whose stock exchanges were specially treated because of consecutive losses, and companies experienced a major business restructuring, etc. With the Robert Higgins' sustainable growth model, we tested the sustainable growth of the selected listed companies in the steel industry between 2006-2010 by using Wilcoxon's signed rank test. The empirical results show that the samples have not achieved sustainable growth whether as a whole or separated year by year. We also concluded that there was a increasing gap between the real growth rates and the sustainable growth rates in five years, which indicated that it was very serious for these companies to blindly pursue high-speed growth, and the financial sustainable growth in the steel industry has not got enough attentions in these companies. So it is not optimistic to achieve sustainable growth for listed companies in the steel industry.

Forecasting Steel Consumption Based on the Industrial Configuration: Case Study on the Korean Steel Industry

이재영,송상화,허성오 한국유통경영학회 2009 유통경영학회지 Vol.12 No.4

The steel industry is a key national strategic industry that supplies materials to various other industries including machinery, shipbuilding, electronics, and construction it greatly affects the overall industry. Since the steel industry has been continuously advancing to newly developing markets such as India and China, it has been placed under an extremelycompetitive system not only in the world steel market but also in the domestic market. Due to the characteristics of the processing industry, the steel industry requires large-scale investmentsat opportune times to acquire global competitiveness. Therefore, accurate forecasting of domestic steel demand greatly affects success or failure in competition. In the past, steel demand was predicted based on the intensity of use and growth curve using the macroeconomic index. Although somewhat meaningful in forecasting the long-term directionality in steel demand changes, the growth curve requires serious efforts with respect to accurate demand forecasts. In particular, applying a uniform growth curve without explicitly considering the structural differences in the steel consuming-industries between countries may affect the accuracy of demand forecasts. In this study, a demand forecast methodology reflecting the structureof the steel consuming industry is presented; its accuracy is determined by analyzing it in comparison with the actual domestic steel consumption. The results of this analysis shows an extremely high accuracy when the model reflecting the structure of the consuming industry is used. The methodology presented in this study is expected to be applicable in forecasting not only domestic steel demand but also the steel demand in India, Vietnam, and China as Korea’s new steel markets. The steel industry is a key national strategic industry that supplies materials to various other industries including machinery, shipbuilding, electronics, and construction it greatly affects the overall industry. Since the steel industry has been continuously advancing to newly developing markets such as India and China, it has been placed under an extremelycompetitive system not only in the world steel market but also in the domestic market. Due to the characteristics of the processing industry, the steel industry requires large-scale investmentsat opportune times to acquire global competitiveness. Therefore, accurate forecasting of domestic steel demand greatly affects success or failure in competition. In the past, steel demand was predicted based on the intensity of use and growth curve using the macroeconomic index. Although somewhat meaningful in forecasting the long-term directionality in steel demand changes, the growth curve requires serious efforts with respect to accurate demand forecasts. In particular, applying a uniform growth curve without explicitly considering the structural differences in the steel consuming-industries between countries may affect the accuracy of demand forecasts. In this study, a demand forecast methodology reflecting the structureof the steel consuming industry is presented; its accuracy is determined by analyzing it in comparison with the actual domestic steel consumption. The results of this analysis shows an extremely high accuracy when the model reflecting the structure of the consuming industry is used. The methodology presented in this study is expected to be applicable in forecasting not only domestic steel demand but also the steel demand in India, Vietnam, and China as Korea’s new steel markets.

금융위기 전후 한중 철강기업 경쟁력 분석

안병국,최영훈 한국경영교육학회 2013 경영교육연구 Vol.28 No.6

World steel industry, on the help of China's remarkable economy growth, enjoyed a fast expansion since 2000. However, facing structural problems of weak demand and overcapacity in the wake of financial crisis in 2008, steel industry is experiencing unprecedented crisis. If steel industry fails to tackle overcapacity problem, steel slump could last for considerable period of time, indicating severe competition between steel producers is irresistible. Therefore, this study analyzed competitiveness of Korean and Chinese steel industry which play a dominant role in the world's steel market and suggested implication for strengthening competitiveness of Korean steel industry. In order for comprehensive analysis, this study adopted three analytical framework of financial results, trade competitiveness, and factors of competitiveness. Analysis results show that Korean steel industry recorded better financial performance compared with China steel industry after financial crisis. However, in trade competitiveness, more steel products of Korean steel industry switched to competitive disadvantage against China. In factor analysis, selling power of China's steel industry becomes stronger after crisis, while that of Korean steel industry becomes weaker. Even though, in factor analysis, technical power of Korean steel industry is still superior to China, because Korean steel industry, after financial crisis, is passive in terms of R&D investment compared with China steel industry, reduction of technical gap between Korea and China could be accelerated. 세계 철강산업은 2000년 이후 중국 경제의 양적 성장에 힘입어 고성장을 구가하였다. 하지만 2008년 발생한 금융위기 이후 수요둔화와 공급과잉이라는 구조적 문제에 직면하면서 경영실적 악화 등 심각한 위기를 겪고 있다. 우려스러운 점은 공급과잉 문제의 획기적인 돌파구가 마련되지 않는 이상 철강업계의 불황기가 상당기간 지속될 가능성이 크다는 것이다. 이는 곧 철강기업들 간의 생존을 위한 치열한 경쟁이 불가피함을 의미한다. 따라서 본 연구는 세계 철강업계를 주도하고 있는 한중 철강산업의 경쟁력 현황을 분석하고 한국 철강업계의 경쟁력 강화를 위한 시사점을 제시하고 자 한다. 본 연구는 한중 철강산업에 대한 종합적인 경쟁력 분석을 위해 1)재무성과, 2)무역 경쟁력, 3)요소 경쟁력 등 3가지 관점을 포괄적으로 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 한국 철강기업들은 위기 이후 중국에 비해 상대적으로 양호한 재무성과를 기록하며위기에 강한 면모를 나타냈다. 하지만 무역 경쟁력 평가에서는 다수의 한국 철강제품들이 대중국 비교열위로 전환되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 요소 경쟁력 항목 중 판매력 평가에서 중국 철강산업의 판매력은 금융위기 이후 강화된 반면, 한국 철강산업의 판매력은 약화된 것으로 나타났다. 기술력은 한국 철강산업이 아직까지 중국 대비 비교우위에 있으나, 금융위기 이후 한국 철강기업들의 R&D 투자가 중국 대비 소극적인 면을 보이고 있어 향후 한중 철강산업간의 기술격차가 더욱 빠르게 축소될 가능성이 있다.

중국 철강산업발전정책이 산업조직에 미친 영향분석

서영인 중국학연구회 2011 중국학연구 Vol.- No.57

China issued the developing policy of steel industry on 2005. This policy point out a loadmap for development of chinese steel industry. For example, the main content of the policy is that steel industry must be developed along east coastal area, and must improve the concentration ratio of steel industry in upbringing major company at steel industry. Therefore, this article studied how the policy have an effect on the real steel industry in China because passed about five years after issuing the policy. In conclusion, if look at a result of studied work, it is as follows. Firstly, the concentration ratio of chinese steel industry is rising, but is not the level that can achieve an economies of scale. Secondly, if look at a distribution of the industry, the policy achieved the effect because a manufacturing plant of the industry was concentrated along eastern coastal area. But it can not say that achieved an effect of policy, because imbalance between coast area is extreme, for example, southern area have not big steel company yet. Finally, competitiveness of steel industry after issuing the policy is as follows. Firstly, competitiveness of steel industry is apparently risen from the side of market share. but overall competitiveness including an earning rate and market share etc. is little different in comparison with its previous of policy issuing, rather partially fell than its previous of policy.

중국 철강산업의 정책추이 분석

최정석(CHOI JUNG SEOK),최준환(Choi, Joon Hwan) 한국중국문화학회 2022 中國學論叢 Vol.- No.73

2020년 시진핑 주석의 탄소중립 선언을 기점으로 탄소배출이 많은 석탄 및 철강산업은 모든 정책에서 우선순위로 주목을 받기 시작하였다. 이에 본 논문에서는 2020년을 기점으로 전후로 나누어 주요 철강산업정책을 문헌을 토대로 정리하고 분석하였다. 우선 2020년 이전의 철강산업정책의 주요흐름을 살펴보면, 중국 철강산업은 1996년 세계 조강생산량 1위를 차지한 이후, 양적으로는 급속한 성장을 이어오고 있지만, 기술수준은 국제 선진수준에 비해 질적으로 차이가 있기 때문에 향후 발전의 중점은 기술업그레이드와 구조조정에 둘 것을 강조하며 산업정책과 문건들을 반포하였다. 다만 고질적인 문제점들을 변화시키려고 했지만, 한계에 봉착하는 모습들을 보여 2015년 기존 수요측면에서의 구조조정이 아닌 공급측면에서의 구조조정인 공급측개혁을 실시한 것으로 보여진다. 다음으로 2020년 이후 발표된 철강산업정책 및 문건들을 보면, 지속적인 지방정부의 생산량 억제 및 노후된 생산시설 업그레이드, 친환경 등에 중점을 두고 시행하였다. 과거 중국정부가 제기한 철강산업의 구조조정 외에도 최근에는 스마트 철강 및 철강생산의 탄소배출감소 등 친환경 철강산업 발전을 위해 대내외적으로 강조하였다. 또한 철강제품의 고부가가치 상품생산을 통한 국제경쟁력을 제고하기 위해, 각 지방정부에서 노후된 생산시설 폐쇄 및 업그레이드 정책들을 추진 중이다. 중국 철강산업은 과거 중국경제 양적성장을 대표하는 산업에서 2021년 중국정부의 철강산업정책의 패러다임 변화로 인해 향후 질적성장을 대표하는 산업이 될지는 지켜봐야 되겠지만, 확실한 부분은 과거 탄소배출을 중시하지 않으며 중국경제 성장을 이끌어왔던 모습에서 앞으로는 우선적으로 철강생산량 감축을 통해 친환경적인 부분에서부터 변화가 올 것으로 판단된다. After President Xi Jinping announced in 2020 to achieve carbon neutrality, the coal and steel industries with high carbon emissions began to receive policy attention. Therefore, this article takes around 2020 as the starting point, and based on the literature, sorts out and analyzes the main policies of the steel industry. First of all, from the perspective of the mainstream of steel industry policy before 2020, China s steel industry has been ranking first in the world s crude steel output since 1996, and the number has continued to grow rapidly, but there is a qualitative gap between the technical level and the international advanced level. Therefore, the introduction of It also formulated industrial policies and documents, emphasizing that the focus of future development should be on technological upgrading and structural adjustment. However, they are trying to change long-standing problems, but they have reached the limit, so it seems that in 2015, supply-side reforms, supply-side structural adjustment, rather than the existing demand-side structural adjustment, were implemented. Secondly, judging from the steel industry policies and documents announced after 2020, the focus of implementation is that local governments continue to suppress production, upgrade and transform outdated production facilities, and be eco-friendly. In addition to the structural adjustment of the steel industry proposed by the Chinese government in the past, the recent focus at home and abroad has been on the development of an eco-friendly steel industry such as smart steel and carbon reduction in steel production. In addition, in order to improve international competitiveness by producing high value-added products of steel products, local governments are promoting policies to close and upgrade outdated production facilities. As the Chinese government s steel industry policy in 2021 undergoes a paradigm shift from an industry that represented quantitative growth in China s economy in the past, it remains to be seen whether China s steel industry will become an industry that represents qualitative growth in the future. From the perspective of driving economic growth, the changes will first come from the environmental protection part of the reduction in steel production. 2020年习近平主席宣布实现碳中和后,碳排放高的煤炭和钢铁行业开始受到政策的重视。 因此本文以2020年前后为切入点,以文献为基础,对钢铁行业的主要政策进行了梳理和分析。 首先,从2020年前钢铁产业政策的主流来看,中国钢铁工业自1996年位居世界粗钢产量第一以来,数量持续快速增长,但技术水平与国际先进水平有质的差距层面因此,出台了产业政策和文件,强调未来发展的重点应该放在技术升级和结构调整上。然而,他们试图改变长期存在的问题,但他们已经到了极限,所以似乎在2015年实施了供给侧改革,即供给侧结构调整,而不是现有的需求侧结构结构调整。 其次,从2020年以后公布的钢铁产业政策和文件来看,实施的重点是地方政府持续抑制生产、落后生产设施升级改造、生态友好。除了中国政府过去提出的钢铁行业结构调整外,近期国内外都将重点放在了智能钢铁和钢铁生产减碳等生态友好型钢铁行业的发展上。此外,为了通过生产钢铁产品的高附加值产品来提高国际竞争力,各地政府都在推动关闭和升级落后生产设施的政策。 由于2021年中国政府的&

A Comparative Analysis of Competitiveness in the Steel Industry : The Case of China and Korea

Seung-Taek Lee,Yuri Yoon 한국무역연구원 2014 貿易 硏究 Vol.10 No.2

Hand in hand with China's growing economy, its steel industry also continues to exhibit remarkable growth. In particular, Korea's steel import from China has rapidly increased owing to China's oversupply caused by expansion of its steel facilities. Many experts are aware of this situation and suggest that the Korean steel industry has encountered the challenge of a fast-growing Chinese steel industry, and that many of China's steel products including long products, flat products, pipes and tubes, have been converted to competitive advantages, from competitive inferior. Meanwhile in Korea, delayed investment in a blast furnace facility despite escalating steel demand extensive users of steel: automobile, shipbuilding, and electronics sectors, has triggered a supply-demand imbalance in the country. Thus, a hike in steel imports from China is seen to cause this structural supply-demand imbalance in Korea's steel industry. Ever since Hyundai Steel's production expansion involving blast furnace facilities, there is need for the industry to concentrate on developing new markets for its facilities' output in Korea. Therefore, Korea's steel industry desperately needs efficient distribution management, as well as export promotion strategy through its global trading network to effectively address its structural supply-demand imbalances.

中國․日本 간 鐵鋼産業의 貿易構造에 관한 硏究

유준,한기조 한일경상학회 2012 韓日經商論集 Vol.56 No.-

This paper examines the steel industry’s intra-industry trade(IIT) of China by disentangling vertical from horizontal IIT in trade with Japan during the period of 2000-2008. The steel industry’s vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT) of China is larger than the horizontal intra-industry trade(HIIT) and the steel industry’s high quality vertical intra-industry trade(VIITH) of China is not larger than the low quality vertical intra-industry trade(VIITL) in trade with Japan, implying that the steel industry’s product quality of China still less competitive than Japan. But although the China steel industry still has comparative disadvantage to Japan, Chinese steel industry’s low quality VIIT of semi-products and bars & sections in trade with Japan has decreased slowly and its high quality VIIT has increased very slowly in the 2000’s. This implies that Chinese steel industry’s comparative advantage and quality have been increasing little by little.

철강산업의 온실가스 배출 탈동조화 국제비교

김동구 한국환경경제학회 2022 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.31 No.1

The iron and steel industry is a manufacturing industry with the largest greenhouse gases emissions and has a great ripple effect on the national economy as a core material industry. This study internationally compared the decoupling patterns of greenhouse gases emissions in the iron and steel industry from 1990 to 2019, focusing on Korea, Japan, and Germany. In particular, unlike previous studies that considered only fuel combustion emissions, this study considered all fuel combustion emissions, industrial process emissions, and indirect emissions from the use of electricity and heat. As a result of the analysis, Korea is interpreted as expansive coupling, Japan as decoupling, and Germany as unclear. Therefore, the decoupling path that the Korean iron and steel industry should take should not be in Germany, but in the form of seeking a decoupling method similar to Japan or more effective than Japan. In addition, this study considered the characteristics of the iron and steel industry as much as possible and presented the causes of the decoupling analysis results and implications for the Korean iron and steel industry through comparison with Japan and Germany. In particular, four factors were suggested as factors which has promoted decoupling in Japan: high value-added of Japanese iron and steel products, development of energy efficiency technology in the Japanese iron and steel industry, strategic M&A of the Japanese iron and steel industry, and maintaining competitiveness according to the closed distribution structure of Japanese iron and steel products. The Korean iron and steel industry should also use the case of Japan as a benchmark to further increase added value through quality uprade and product diversification of iron and steel products, while at the same time making efforts to fundamentally reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the development of new technologies. 철강산업은 온실가스 배출량이 가장 많은 제조업이면서 핵심소재산업으로서 국민경제에 미치는 파급효과가 크다. 본 연구는 한국, 일본, 독일을 중심으로 1990~2019년 기간에 걸쳐 철강산업의 온실가스 배출 탈동조화 양상을 국제비교하였다. 특히, 연료연소 배출량만을 고려한 선행연구들과는 달리 본 연구에서는 연료연소 배출량, 산업공정 배출량, 전력 및 열 사용에 따른 간접 배출량을 모두 고려하였다. 분석결과, 한국은 확장적 동조화, 일본은 탈동조화, 독일은 불분명으로 해석된다. 따라서 한국 철강업이 나아가야 할 탈동조화 경로는 독일이 아니라, 일본과 유사하거나 일본보다 더 효과적인 탈동조화 방안을 모색하는 형태로 진행되어야 할 것이다. 또한, 본 연구는 철강업의 특성을 최대한 고려하고 일본 및 독일과의 비교를 통해 탈동조화 분석결과의 원인과 한국 철강업에의 시사점도 제시하였다. 특히, 일본의 탈동조화 촉진 요인으로 일본 철강재의 고부가가치화, 일본 철강산업의 에너지효율기술 개발, 일본 철강산업의 전략적 M&A, 일본 철강재의 폐쇄적 유통구조에 따른 경쟁력 유지, 4가지를 제시하였다. 한국 철강업도 일본의 사례를 벤치마크로 삼아 철강재의 품질 고도화 및 품목 다변화를 통해 부가가치를 더 높이는 동시에, 신기술 개발을 통해 온실가스를 근본적으로 줄이기 위해 노력해야 할 것이다.

주요국 철강산업의 국제경쟁력 변천에 관한 연구

홍정의(Jeong-Yee Hong),이동명(Dong-Myung Lee) 한국경영사학회 2022 經營史學 Vol.101 No.-

자동차, 조선, 기계 등 주력 산업에 기초소재를 공급하는 철강산업은 역사적으로 혁신 기술의 등장, 급격한 수요 변화 등의 구조적 변화와 이에 대한 기업과 정부의 대응에 따 라 국가 간 경쟁우위의 이동이 주기적으로 반복되어 왔다. 세계 철강산업의 국제경쟁우위는 영국, 미국, 일본 순으로 이동하였으며 한국은 철강산 업의 불모지에서 최단 기간내에 세계 최고 수준의 경쟁력을 보유한 철강 선진국으로 부상 하였다. 본 연구는 세계 철강산업의 국제 경쟁우위가 이동하는 과정을 마이클 포터(1990) 의 국가경쟁력 분석 틀인 다이아몬드 모델과 산업의 주도권 이동에 관한 이론인 Lee & Malerba(2017)의 추격사이클 모델과 기회의 창 개념을 중심으로 살펴보았다. 본 연구를 통해 철강혁신기술의 등장, 수요구조의 변화, 그리고 이러한 변화에 철강기 업과 정부가 자국의 조건에 맞는 전략과 정책을 적절히 선택함으로써 철강산업의 국가 간 경쟁우위가 이동해 왔음을 다시 한번 확인하였다. 후발국에서 선발국으로 부상하는데 성 공한 경우 철강기업은 과감하고 신속하게 혁신기술을 도입했으며, 정부는 직간접적으로 이를 지원하였다. 반면, 후발국의 추월을 허용한 선발국들은 혁신기술의 등장, 수요구조 의 변화 등에 둔감했으며 변화의 영향을 과소평가하는 선발자의 덫에 빠졌다는 사실을 공 통적으로 관찰할 수 있었다. 최근 국내외 철강산업을 둘러싼 모든 변수들이 급변하고 있다. 이러한 극도의 불확실 성에 대응하기 위해서는 친환경 혁신기술 개발에 적극 나서는 한편, 모든 변화 가능성에 대해 보다 유연한 자세와 함께 다양한 분야의 전문가들이 철강생태계의 상생과 혁신을 논 의하는 플랫폼의 구축이 필요할 것으로 생각된다. The steel industry, which supplies basic materials to major industries such as automobiles, shipbuilding, and construction, has historically been subject to periodic changes in industrial leadership between countries due to the emergence of innovative technologies, changes in demand structure, and strategic responses from companies and governments. The international competitive advantage of the steel industry has shifted to UK, US, and Japan, and the Korean steel industry has emerged as an advanced steel industry with the world’s best competitiveness within the shortest period of time. This study focuses on the concept of Michael Porter’s diamond model and Lee & Malerba’s catch-up cycle model to examine the process of international competitiveness in the global steel industry. In this study, we found that not only the emergence of innovative steel technology, but also changes in demand, and the fact that the steel industry and the government have appropriately adopted strategies and policies suitable for their own conditions, and the fact that the competitive advantage between countries in the steel industry has shifted. When a country succeeded in rising from a latecomer to a leading country, steel companies introduced innovative technologies boldly and quickly, and the government directly or indirectly supported them. On the other hand, in the case of the leading countries catched up by latecomers, there was common observation that they were insensitive to changes in technology and demand, and caught in the incumbent trap which makes them underestimate or ignore the impact of changes. In order to respond to the uncertainties surrounding the steel industry, we preemptively support and lead the development of eco-friendly innovative technologies, and build a platform in which steel experts from various levelsdiscuss the creative and innovative measures with a more flexible attitude toward all possible changes.