부동산 산업의 경제적 파급효과와 충격반응 분석

서진호,진창하 한국부동산연구원 2023 부동산연구 Vol.33 No.3

This study examines the effect of the real estate industry on other industries as input and output resources. We define the real estate industry based on the two- and three-digit industry classification system as the recent real estate industry expands into other interdisciplinary business sectors. We also aggregate the sub-sector of the real estate–related industry into the broad real estate–related industry. We analyze input–out tables to find the spillover effect and value chain to other related industries by utilizing a total of 17 annual industry input–output tables from the Bank of Korea. This study also extends the spillover effect of the real estate industry along with a fluctuation of macroeconomic conditions. We find that the magnitude of the economic effect of the real estate industry on other industries is large when we classify the real estate industry into the two-digit industry classification system except for the analysis of the additive value impact. We also examine the impulse response analysis (IRA) by utilizing vector autoregression analysis. IRA indicates that macroeconomic variables affect the real estate industry and drive the same directional spillover effect on other industries. Our analysis segregates the national input–output analysis into the regional input–output analysis to identify the economic effect of real estate market fluctuation of the Seoul Metropolitan Area on other regions.

울산지역 항만산업의 구조 및 지역경제파급효과 분석

김상춘,최봉호 한국산업경제학회 2008 산업경제연구 Vol.21 No.2

본 연구는 산업연관분석법을 활용하여 울산지역 항만산업의 산업구조와 지역경제에의 파급효과에 대해 분석한다. 이를 위해 2003년 울산지역 28부문 산업연관표를 항만산업, 지역주력산업 등을 구체적인 세부산업으로 분류하여 31부문의 산업연관표를 재작성한다. 울산지역 항만산업의 산업구조분석과 관련하여 산업의 투입구조 및 수요구조를 중심으로 전국과 비교한다. 지역경제에의 파급효과는 항만산업의 최종수요와 항만산업의 생산활동에 의한 경제적 효과의 두 가지 방향에서 분석한다. 주요 결과로는, 첫째, 울산지역 항만산업은 전국 항만산업과 지역 주력산업에 비해 중간투입률이 높고 부가 가치율이 상대적으로 낮다는 것을 발견하였다. 둘째, 울산항만산업의 항만서비스 공급률이 총 수요에 비해 약 33.93%로 전국항만 평균 약 82.86%에 비해 매우 저조한 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 울산지역 항만산업의 최종수요에 의한 지역경제 파급효과는 2003년 기준으로 약 6조 823억원의 생산유발효과, 약 1조7,230억원의 부가가치창출효과, 약 21,514명의 취업유발효과가 있으며 특히, 지역 전 산업의 평균을 상회하며 서비스 산업 중에서는 가장 높은 단위 생산유발효과가 있는 것을 발견하였다. 넷째, 지역 항만산업의 생산활동에 의한 지역경제 파급효과는 2003년 기준으로 약 2조5,100억원의 생산유발효과, 6,740억원의 부가가치창출효과, 약 8,895명의 취업유발효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. This paper analyses the industrial structure and regional economic effects of Ulsan regional port-logistic industry. For this, 31 sectors’ input-output table of 2003 Ulsan regional economy is constructed with port-logistic industry as a specific sector. Regarding the study on the industrial structure, both input structure and demand structure of the industry are analysed. On the other hand, the analysis on regional economic impacts is conducted in two ways, among which one is the analysis on the effects of final demand of the industry on regional economy and the other is the analysis on the effects of the industry’s production activity. Main findings of this study are, first, ulsan regional port-logistic industry has lower value-added rate but higher intermediary input rate relative to national port-logistic industry as well as other regional industries in average. Second, the service supply capacity(rate) of Ulsan port-logistic industry relative to the related service demand is very low, so that only 33.93% of related service demand is fulfilled in regional level. Third, the economic effects of final demand of the industry are found to be an increase of about 6.3billion dollars’ worth in regional production, an increase of about 1.8billion dollars’ worth in regional value added and an increase of 21,514 employment in regional labor market. Forth, the regional economic effects of production activity of the industry are found to be an increase of 2.6billion dollars’ worth in regional industrial production, an increase of 0.71billion dollars’ worth in regional value added and an increase of 8,895 employment in regional labor market.

우리나라 항공산업이 지역경제에 미치는 파급효과 분석: 다지역산업연관분석(MRIO)을 이용하여

박추환,정영근 국토연구원 2011 국토연구 Vol.68 No.-

본 연구는 2005년 지역산업연관표를 이용하여 지역산업연관분석(MRIO)을 통해 항공산업의 생산유발효과와 부가가치유발효과를 지역 내 및 지역 간을 중심으로 분석하였다. 생산유발계수를 이용하여 전방연쇄효과 및 후방연쇄효과를 비교한 결과 항공기 제조업에서는 부산경남지역의 중간재 투입효과가 크고, 항공운송서비스업에서는 수도권지역의 중간재투입효과가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 후방연쇄효과의 경우 수도권지역이 전국에서 가장 큰 것으로 나타났지만 투입효과와 비교해서는 전국적으로 격차가 심하지 않았다. 부가가치유발계수를 이용한 파급효과 분석 결과 또한 생산유발효과의 결과와 유사하였다. 이를 종합해보면 항공산업은 제조업 측면에서는 부산경남지역의 항공기 제조업 클러스터가 발전되어 있고 대전충청권, 수도권과의 관련성이 높아 보이며, 운송서비스업 측면에서는 수도권 중심으로 공급이 이루어지지만 수요는 전국적으로 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 공항건설운영 계획수립 시 여객운송보다 물류 관련 계획을 발전시키는 것이 필요하며 효율적으로 항공물류체계의 정립을 통하여 공항건설운영계획이 추진되어야 할 것이다. This paper analyses the economic effects of the airline industry on the regional economy by 2005 MRIO Table. In the 1st step analysis, we look at the forward and backward linkage effects by using the production inducement coefficient. The results show that Pusan·Gyeongnam region’s intermediate goods input effect is the most high in the airline manufacturing industries and Metropolitan region’s intermediate goods input effect is the most high in the airline transportation industries. And, we look at backward linkage effects for the airfreight industries, the results show that Metropolitan regions output is the most high, but inter-region’s gap is not large. In the 2nd step analysis, we look at the value-added inducement effects on the regional economy. The results are same as product inducement effects in the 1st step, Therefore, airline industry shows very large regional gaps in terms of supplement. So, airline industry should be reconsidered in terms of regional development policy.

항만물류산업의 지역경제 파급효과 분석 -부산, 인천, 울산을 대상으로-

이민규 ( Min Kyu Lee ),이기열 ( Ki Youl Lee ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2016 해운물류연구 Vol.32 No.2

항만물류산업은 수출입 화물의 운송 및 물류활동을 통한 부가가치의 창출 등 항만도시의 지역경제를 구성하는 근간이 되고 있다. 최근의 항만정책은 항만지역산업의 변화를 반영한 항만별 특화 전략을 수립하는 방향으로 추진 중이다. 이러한 배경 하에 본 연구는 2013년 기준 지역산업연관표를 적용하여 주요 지역별 항만물류산업의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하였다. 즉, 생산유발효과, 부가가치유발효과, 취업유발효과뿐만 아니라 부가가치 순이입 측면에서 경제적 파급효과를 정량화하였다. 분석 결과, 울산 항만물류산업의 생산유발효과가 타 지역 항만물류산업과 비교해서 가장 높지만, 타지역 생산유발률이 34.7%에 이르는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 부산과 인천의 경우 항만물류산업이 부가가치 이입 효과가 높은 산업으로 평가되었다. 분석 결과는 지역별 항만물류 클러스터를 구축하고 항만물류산업의 지역 경제적 중요성을 제시하는 데 활용 가능하다. 본 연구는 항만물류분야에 부가가치 순이입 분석을 최초로 도입함으로써 항만물류 연구의 범위를 넓히는 계기가 될 것으로 기대된다. Generally, ports represent a significant national infrastructure to ensure speedy and seamless transportation of import and export cargoes. For instance, 99.7% of the volume of import and export cargoes in Korea has been handled by maritime transportation. The port logistics industry plays a significant role in the regional economic development of Korea by generating added value and employment. As of late, the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries formulates the port policy for developing specialized ports in harmony with the change of regional industries. Especially, the port logistics industry should be developed with regard to the relationship with regional linked industries. Such situation drives the need for an analysis of the regional economic impacts of the port logistics industry. Thus, this study attempts to explore the regional economic impacts of the port logistics industry using regional input-output (I-O) analysis focused on Busan, Incheon, and Ulsan. We use the original benchmark 2013 regional I-O tables obtained from the Bank of Korea. For port logistics-based analysis, original tables are aggregated into 4-region and 31-sector tables. Specifically, production, value-added, and employment inducing effects, as well as net trade in value-added are intimately presented. The analysis results reveal that the production inducing effects of the regional port logistics industry range from 1.7730 to 1.9783. Given that 65% of induced effects of logistics industry in Ulsan are generated from industries in this location, the industry is likely to be very dependent on industries in other regions. "Port logistics," "petroleum and coal products," "business support services," "electricity, gas, and steam supply," and "wholesale and retail trade" rank high in the sectoral inducing effects of port logistics. With regard to net trade in value-added, port logistics industries in Busan and Incheon generated positive values respectively, but the industry in Ulsan showed the opposite sign. It should be noted that net trade in value-added allows researchers to capture added values transferred during the production process contrary to value-added inducing effects. Analysis results will offer valuable information on the regional economic importance of port logistics industry for building the master development plan on nationwide ports. Especially, net trade in value-added will serve as a new indicator for describing the industrial status of the regional port logistics industry. In addition, this study can be applied to the design of efficient strategies for constructing the regional port logistics clusters. The sectoral linkages in a regional economy can provide the framework for identifying leading industries in the regional economy and for grouping the industries into spatial clusters. In light of academic research, introducing net trade in value-added using I-O analysis to the port logistics field for the first time will significantly contribute to expanding the range of the port logistics research. We expect this study to motivate future research with respect to the economic impacts of port logistics industry.

부산지역 관광산업 및 관광수요의 특성: 지역산업연관표와 패널자료 분석을 중심으로

차경수,박민수 관광경영학회 2019 관광경영연구 Vol.87 No.-

This study attempts to investigate the main features of tourism industry and tourism demand in Busan and to draw useful policy implications. The analysis from the regional input-output table shows that the tourism industry in Busan plays a major role in the regional economy. However, it is more sensitive to economic conditions than the tourism industry of other regions. Therefore, industrial policies tries to make some industries a buffer industry for tourism industry, to alleviate the direct effect of business cycle fluctuations on the local economy. On the other hand, the estimation result of panel data displays that the variables such as income level, relative price, tourist facilitates and social infrastructures are statistically significant in the short run, in explaining the tourism demand of foreigners. However, in the long run, it turns out that influx of new tourists due to good reputation and social infrastructure affecting tourism environment are the most important factors. Thus, it is crucial to increase the investment in infrastructure and to improve the image of Busan to increase the number of foreign tourists in the long run. Finally, since this study uses the regional input-output table in 2013, it has a limitation in reflecting the more recent relation between the industries. Also, due to the lack of data in the tourism sector, more elaborate analysis related to the tourism demand of domestic residences for Busan was not made. Thus, for the future research, more systematic data construction and analytic skills are needed.

고창 생물권보전지역 체험관광의 경제적 파급효과 분석 - 하전갯벌체험마을 사례 -

오새라,박윤선,임정빈 한국농촌계획학회 2015 농촌계획 Vol.21 No.2

The objective of this study is to analyze how much economic impact is changed before and after the designation as biosphere reserve area by tourism. The subject region of this study is Hajun mud village which is the famous place to experience eco-tourism located in Gochang-gun. This region has been designated as a UNESCO biosphere reserve in 2013. In order to estimate the regional economic effects, we employ a regional input-output model which is derived by a RAS method. Using regional input-output model analysis, this study estimates direct and indirect effects of tourist’s expenditure on experience of Hajun mud village in Gochang-gun across associated industries between 2011 and 2013. Also, we tried to calculate a net increase in number of visitors in 2013 with considering the trend of tourist in this region and estimate a net regional economic effect after the designation as a biosphere reserve area by tourism. The empirical result could be summarized as follows : (1) the change of production inducement effect shows that regional outputs is approximately increased by 386 million won between 2011 and 2013, (2) regional value-added is increased by 223 million won during the same period, (3) regional employment is approximately increased by 20 according to the labor inducement effects of expanding tourist’s expenditure in biosphere reserve area. (4) social service industry has highly been benefited by increase in experience tourist after Gochang-gun was designated as the biosphere reserve area. (5) estimated net increase in number of visitors after the designation as biosphere reserve area is about 37,364 which is 93.4% of the absolute increase in number of visitors amounting 40,011 between 2011 and 2013.

지역산업연관분석을 이용한 지역축제의 경제적 파급효과 분석: 2018 영주 한국선비문화축제를 중심으로

강상국,박현호,김동한 (사)한국관광레저학회 2019 관광레저연구 Vol.31 No.7

The purpose of this study is to estimate the regional economic impacts of 2018 Yeongju Seonbi Culture festival using a regional input-output model. Since various problems which most regional festivals faced with showed, the importance of estimating regional festival's economic impacts has been growing. From this reason, this study not only estimates the regional economic impacts but also figures out the effectiveness of 2018 Yeongju Seonbi Culture festival. For achieving the goal of this study, on-site survey was conducted for visitors to 2018 Yeongju Seonbi Culture festival in order to estimate per capita and total expenditures. Tourism multipliers were derived from the regional input-output tables' of Kyungbuk Province. Furthermore this study figures out the leakage effect by drawing regional multiplier. The results of this study not only estimates festival's economic impact by considering the tourism multipliers, and both visitors' number and expenditures, but also provides meaningful implications for future developments in Yeongju Seonbi Culture festival.

고창 생물권보전지역 체험관광의 경제적 파급효과 분석 - 하전갯벌체험마을 사례 -

오새라,박윤선,임정빈 한국농촌계획학회 2015 농촌계획 Vol.21 No.2

The objective of this study is to analyze how much economic impact is changed before and after the designation as biosphere reserve area by tourism. The subject region of this study is Hajun mud village which is the famous place to experience eco-tourism located in Gochang-gun. This region has been designated as a UNESCO biosphere reserve in 2013. In order to estimate the regional economic effects, we employ a regional input-output model which is derived by a RAS method. Using regional input-output model analysis, this study estimates direct and indirect effects of tourist’s expenditure on experience of Hajun mud village in Gochang-gun across associated industries between 2011 and 2013. Also, we tried to calculate a net increase in number of visitors in 2013 with considering the trend of tourist in this region and estimate a net regional economic effect after the designation as a biosphere reserve area by tourism. The empirical result could be summarized as follows : (1) the change of production inducement effect shows that regional outputs is approximately increased by 386 million won between 2011 and 2013, (2) regional value-added is increased by 223 million won during the same period, (3) regional employment is approximately increased by 20 according to the labor inducement effects of expanding tourist’s expenditure in biosphere reserve area. (4) social service industry has highly been benefited by increase in experience tourist after Gochang-gun was designated as the biosphere reserve area. (5) estimated net increase in number of visitors after the designation as biosphere reserve area is about 37,364 which is 93.4% of the absolute increase in number of visitors amounting 40,011 between 2011 and 2013.

대구경북의 지역 간 무역관계 변화 분석 - 2010년ㆍ2013년 지역산업연관표를 중심으로 -

정군우 ( Gunu Jung ) 한국통상정보학회 2018 통상정보연구 Vol.20 No.4

본 연구에서는 한국은행의 2010년/2013년 지역산업연관표를 이용하여 대구경북 제조업에 초점을 맞추어 지역산업의 수요의존관계와 지역 간 무역관계 변화를 분석하고, 이를 통해 대구경북 지역산업에 대한 정책적 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 지역경제에서 각 산업은 다양한 재화와 서비스를 생산ㆍ구매하고, 최종적으로 생산된 산출물은 소비, 투자, 수출된다. 이러한 과정 속에서 지역산업은 자기지역은 물론 타 지역 산업과 긴밀한 연관관계속에 분업체계를 이루게 된다. 따라서 지역경제를 분석하기 위해서는 각 지역산업의 생산기술구조와 거래형태, 산업간 상호의존관계를 규명하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 대구경북의 무역관계를 분석한 결과 첫째, 제조업의 생산은 대부분 내수보다 외수에 의존하고 있어 타 지역에 대한 높은 의존구조가 확인되었다. 둘째, 지역간 무역수지를 분석한 결과 대구와 경북 모두 전기전자 부문을 중심으로 흑자규모가 축소되고 적자규모가 확대되었다. 셋째, 제조업 대부분의 업종은 상호유통형으로 나타났고, 실제로 지역에 소득을 창출하는 이출ㆍ수출특화형산업은 전무하였다. This study analyzed the demand dependence of regional industry and the change of regional trade relation by focusing on Daegu Gyeongbuk manufacturing industry using the 2010/2013 Regional Input-Output Statistics. In the local economy, each industry produces and purchases a variety of goods and services, and the final product is consumed, invested, and exported through the sales process. In this process, the regional industry becomes a system of division of labor in close relation with its own region as well as with other regional industries. Therefore, in order to analyze the regional economy, it is very important to identify the production technology structure, transaction type, and interdependence between industries in each local industry. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, production of Daegu Gyeongbuk was more dependent on external demand than domestic demand. Second, as a result of analyzing the regional trade balance, both the Daegu and Gyeongbuk have narrowed their surplus and expanded their deficits, especially in the electrical and electronics sectors. Third, most of the manufacturing industry appeared to be interchangeable type, and many industries showed high export and import input.

통근통행을 고려한 수도권의 지역간 상호작용 변화에 관한 연구

마강래(Ma, Kang-Rae),강은태(Kang, Eun-Tael) 한국지역개발학회 2008 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.20 No.2

It has generally been considered that the level of regional interaction can be measured by the number of commuters who regularly travel between home and work place. The origin- destination matrix has a very useful information about the regional interaction in terms of the supply and demand for labor. The purpose of this paper is to develope the interesting idea that the logic used in the input- output analysis can be applied to the origin- destination matrix to examine the regional spatial interactions in a relatively large region. Where workers live and work can be categorized in the origin- destination matrix that can then be linked to an input output matrix that contains the information on inter- regional flow s. This method is used to identify the linkages or interrelation between the regions, in terms of regional labour market area, and thus can be useful in developing better labour market forecasts. The empirical analysis has been applied to the Seoul Metropolitan area to show the changes of the regional interaction over the last ten years. The use of three time periods (1995, 2때0, and 2(05) mes us possible to analyse the change of commuting areas and to visu떠ize them.