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RISS 인기검색어
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- 주제어 : Hershfield (검색결과 3 건)
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심인경,이옥정,정상만,김상단 한국방재학회 2019 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.19 No.1
This study proposes a simple alternative to statistically estimate the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The PMP is the upper limit of physical rainfall depth and is contradictory to the concept of probability. However, since the upper limit of physical rainfall depth cannot be identified clearly from observed data, it was judged that making a probabilistic estimation of PMP might be reasonable. Hershfield's km, calculated from the daily rainfall depth recorded at 80 stations of the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) with more than 10 years of observations, was fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution with a shape parameter given as a linear function of the average of the annual maximum of the time series at each observation site. Data from the oldest 15 sites in Korea (1961-2017, 57 years) were used to verify the methodology suggested in this study. Hershfield's statistical PMPs and the hydro-meteorological PMPs were somewhat different; however, the return period for the PMPs in terms of daily rainfall depth was estimated to be approximately 20,000,000 years at all sites studied. 본 연구에서는 가능최대강수량(Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP)을 통계학적으로 추정하는 간단한 대안이 제시된다. PMP는 물리적인 강우량 상한계로, 확률론적 개념과는 모순적이지만, 관측자료로부터는 물리적인 강우량의 상한계를 명확하게 규정할 수 없기 때문에, PMP를 확률론적으로 구하는 방법이 합리적일 수도 있다고 판단하였다. 10년 이상의 관측자료를 보유한 기상청 ASOS 80개 지점의 일 강우량 자료를 이용하여 산출한 Hershfield의 km은 각 관측 지점의 연 최대 시계열의 평균의 선형함수로 주어지는 형상 매개변수를 가지는 GEV 분포에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 본 연구의 방법을 검증하기 위하여 우리나라에서 가장 오래된 15개 지점 자료(1961-2017, 57년)가 이용되었다. Hershfield의 통계학적 PMP와 수문기상학적인 PMP는 지점별로 다소 상이하였으나, 적용된 지점들 모두에서 일 강우량 PMP의 재현기간은 대략 20,000,000년인 것으로 추정되었다.
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Estimation of Time-variant Probable Maximum Precipitation for South Korea
김남원,이정우 대한토목학회 2017 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.21 No.3
The objective of this study is to suggest a methodology for estimating the time-variant probable maximum precipitation. First, the greatest amount of precipitation for a relatively long duration, e.g., a month or longer, defined as the Long-term Probable Maximum Precipitation (LPMP) in the present work was estimated. Then, the procedure for using the LPMP estimates for determining the temporally varied upper limit of precipitation during a certain period of the year, defined as the time-variant PMP (TPMP) in this study was implemented. Hershfield's statistical approach was used to estimate LPMP, i.e., monthly, calendar monthly, and cumulative monthly, for each of 61 weather stations located in South Korea, and nationwide distribution maps of three types of LPMP were made. In particular, using the cumulative monthly PMP estimates and total antecedent precipitation prior to a certain time, the TPMP for a certain duration was forecast for example problems. From the case study for precipitation data at Chungju weather station, TPMP forecasts at certain stormy periods were substantially smaller than the design PMP, which implies that reservoir operation for flood control based on the design PMP may be too restrictive for some period. It is expected that the TPMP can serve as a complementary index to increase the water supply of a reservoir.
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