경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발

김명균(Myeong-Kyun Kim),조윤호(Yoonho Cho) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2012 지능정보연구 Vol.18 No.4

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms’ growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms’ financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction model

Application of Project Quality Analysis: Case Study of Hengrui Pharmaceutical

Yunrong Zhang 동북아경상학회 2023 동북아경상연구 Vol.4 No.2

Purpose - Owing to the constant changes in the capital market, the accounts in the financial statements have gradually become more complex with the development of the capital market. Hengrui Pharmaceutical was chosen as the case study object to explore the analysis method for enterprise financial statements, hoping to provide a reference for enterprises and investors when using financial statements for analysis. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study takes data from the 2019-2022 annual report of Hengrui Pharmaceutical as the research object and uses case analysis, the Harvard analysis framework, project quality analysis, as well as other methods. Findings - The analysis of Hengrui Pharmaceutical Company’s annual report reveals that the Harvard Analytical Framework and project quality analysis can enable data users to better understand the company’s current situation and prospects. Research Implications - Few studies have used project quality analysis to analyze corporate financial data in the existing literature. This study combines the Harvard Analytical Framework and project quality analysis methods to analyze financial data. Furthermore, it discusses the feasibility of combining the Harvard Analytical Framework with a project quality analysis method and its application to financial data analysis. The research results have significance as a reference for the financial analyses of other enterprises and investors.

지역 도시공공서비스 제공기관의 재무효율성 분석

최현묵(Choi Hyun Mook),정명은(Jeong Myung Eun) 한국갈등관리학회 2014 한국갈등관리연구 Vol.1 No.2

본 연구는 도시공공서비스를 제공하는 지방공기업의 재무효율성을 안정성, 수익성, 활동성의 세 차원에서 자료포락분석(DEA)기법을 통해 CCR 모형 및 BCC 모형을 분석하였다. 이후 CCR 모형의 분석결과를 토대로 Slack 분석 및 Tier 분석을 수행하여 상대적으로 비효율적인 기관들의 벤치마킹 대상과 조정이 필요한 요인들을 도출하였다. 분석결과 CCR모형 중 재무안정성 부문의 효율성을 달성한 기관은 6개 기관으로 전체의 22.2%를 차지하였으며, 재무수익성 부문은 3개 기관으로 20%, 재무활동성 부문은 2개 기관으로 7.4%를 차지하였다. 반면 BCC모형 중 재무안정성 부문의 효율성을 달성한 기관은 11개 기관으로 전체의 40.7%를 차지하였으며, 재무수익성 부문은 6개 기관으로 40%, 재무활동성 부문은 6개 기관으로 22.2%를 차지하였다. 이러한 분석결과를 바탕으로 Slack 분석을 통해 비효율적인 기관의 조정이 필요한 요인을 도출할 수 있었으며, 마지막으로 Tier 분석을 통해 비효율적인 기관의 벤치마킹 대상을 규명하였다. 이러한 연구결과가 지방공기업들의 효과적인 재무효율성 개선 전략 수립에 도움이 될 것이라 기대된다. This study analyzes both OCR and BOC model for the measurement of the financial efficiency of local public corporation providing urban public services using DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) technique in the dimensions of stability, profitability, and activity. From the result of OCR model analysis, performing Slack and Tier analysis, finds relatively inefficient benchmark for corporations and the factors that needs to be adjusted. In the OCR model, the result shows that 6 corporations achieved efficiency of financial stability, which forms 22.2% of whole. Financial stability was satisfied by 3 corporations, which accounts for 20%, and financial activity was achieved by 2 corporations, which take 7.4% of whole. On the other hand, in the BCC model, there are 11 corporations that achieved efficiency of financial stability, accounting for 40.7%. 6 corporations achieved financial profitability, forming 40% and 6 corporations satisfied financial activity, accounting for 22%. Thus, local public corporations will be able to check the degree and rank of each corporation’s efficiency through the result of CCR and BCC model analysis. Also, it will help local public corporations to select both long and short term benchmarks for themselves through the result of Tier analysis. In addition, expects that efficiency improvement will be followed using the result of Slack analysis to get factors of benchmark. This study will be able to help urban public service providers to set up strategies to improve financial efficiency and suggest positive ways of improving policy making. Each corporation also could get a basis of strategy establishment to benchmark other corporations through this study analyzing by sectors and factors.

자료포괄분석(DEA)을 이용한 신용평점모형의 개발

이영찬(Young Chan Lee),민재형(Jae H. Min) 한국경영학회 2004 經營學硏究 Vol.33 No.6

Credit scoring problems are basically in the scope of classification problems that are commonly encountered decision making tasks in businesses. So far, a variety of methods such as linear probability and multivariate conditional probability models, recursive partitioning algorithm, artificial intelligence approach, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), and mathematical programming approach have been proposed to support the credit decision. Offering financial institutions a means for evaluating the risk of their credit portfolio in a timely manner, such models can provide an important body of information to help them formulate their respective risk management strategies. In fact, banking authorities such as Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the World Bank, the IMF, and the Federal Reserve all encourage commercial banks to develop internal models to better quantify financial risks.The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new approach to credit scoring, which is based on DEA. Compared with conventional methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic regression analysis (LRA), and neural networks (NN) for business failure prediction, which require extra ex ante information of “good/bad”classification, this approach solely requires ex post information of the observed set of input and output data of the objects of interest (client firms) to calculate their respective credit scores. While NN and other traditional methods for credit scoring require ex ante information for business failure prediction, it is more useful in practice to build a credit scoring model based on ex post financial information. The idea is to develop a meaningful “peer group analysis”with specific financial characteristics that distinguish between two or more groups, and recently, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been introduced to this peer group analysis for business failure prediction. DEA converts a multiplicity of input and output measures into a unit-free single performance index formed as a ratio of aggregated output to aggregated input. Conceptually, DEA compares the DMUs’observed inputs and outputs in order to identify the relative “best practices”for a chosen observation set. Based on these best observations, an empirical efficient frontier is established, and the degrees of efficiency of other units with respect to the efficient frontier are measured. Therefore, in the context of credit scoring, the performance index obtained via DEA can measure the relative credit riskiness of the firms within credit portfolio. In short, DEA, which computes a firm’s technical efficiency by measuring how well they transform their inputs into outputs relative to their peers, may provide a fine mechanism for deriving appropriate categories for credit scoring.For the empirical evidence, this DEA-based credit scoring methodology was applied to current financial data of external audited 1,061 manufacturing firms comprising the credit portfolio of the largest credit guarantee organization in Korea. Using financial ratios, the methodology could synthesize a firm’s overall performance into a single financial credibility score. The empirical results by this methodology were also validated by supporting analyses such as regression analysis and discriminant analysis, and by using actual bankruptcy cases. Comparing the results of this methodology against those obtained by regression analysis and discriminant analysis, and matching the results with actual bankruptcy cases of 103 firms, we could judiciously test the discriminatory power of this methodology.In addition, using the predicted financial credibility scores of client firms, we could provide a practical credit rating method to classify them into several balanced classes. Commercial banks or other financial institutions are currently adopting various credit rating methods to manage their respective client firms’credit riskiness, most of which utilize the probability of default derived by the neur

가계 주 소득 원천과 소득 분위에 따른 가계 유형별 심적 회계 분석

박종선 ( Jong Seon Park ),황덕순 ( Duck Soon Hwang ) 한국소비자학회 2014 소비자학연구 Vol.25 No.1

본 연구는 Shefrin과 Thaler의 행동학적 생애주기가설을 배경으로 한국 가계의 심적 회계 양상을 규명하여 실생활에 적용 방안을 모색코자 한다. 연구에 사용된 자료는 한국조세연구원의 재정패널조사 1-4차년도 자료이며, 표본분할을 통해 가계 유형별로 분석하였다. 표본은 가계 주 소득원천에 따라 근로소득가계, 사업소득가계, 그리고 근로 소득과 사업소득이 모두 있는 가계로 분할하였고, 가계소득규모에 따라 균등화 소득 4분위로 분할하였다. 분석은 균형패널을 구축한 후 확률효과모형을 이용하여 회귀분석과 회귀계수 차이검정을 실시하였으며, 분석결과를 토대로 가계 유형별 심적 회계 양상을 추론하였다. 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 회귀분석결과 유형별 소득과 자산이 소비지출에 미치는 영향이 서로 다르며, 이러한 특성은 가계 유형별로도 다른 양상을 보였다. 둘째, 회귀 계수 차이검정결과 ‘유형별 소득과 자산간 한계소비성향에 차이가 없다’는 영가설이 기각되어 유형별 소득과 자산이 소비지출에 미치는 영향에 차이가 있으며, 이러한 특성은 가계 유형별로도 서로 다른 양상을 보였다. 셋째, 회귀분석과 차이검정 결과를 토대로 가계의 심적 회계 양상을 추론한 결과 연구대상 가계는 심적 회계를 하고 있으며, 심적 회계 양상은 가계 유형별로 서로 다른 것으로 밝혀졌다. 이러한 연구 결과는 재무설계를 할 때 객관적 재무구조와 함께 가계의 심적 회계 양상을 고려해야 하며, 특히, 가계 소득 특성에 따른 가계 유형별 심적 회계 양상을 반영하여 재무설계 전략을 수립해야 함을 시사한다. Financial planning is a popular method of household financial management, and the lifecycle/ permanent income hypothesis is an excellent normative theory of financial planning in the field of financial management. However, because of strict rationality assumptions, empirical tests have shown that many cases have been dismissed. This study considers an aspect of mental accounting in Korean households, based on Shefrin and Thaler’s behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. For this study, households were classified into the following types: 1) wage income household, business income household, and household with both types of incomes, according to main income source and 2) quintile, according to the scale of household income. Following the classification, each type of household was then analyzed. The National Survey of Tax and Benefit for 1st-4th wave were used to form a balanced panel. Then, a one-way random effects model was used for the analysis. The results were used to make inferences about the aspects of mental accounting in different types of households. The results are as follows: First, the results of the regression analysis indicate that assets and income, which are explanatory variables, have different characteristics in terms of their influence on consumer expenditure. In addition, these characteristics showed different aspects for different types of households. Second, the results of the test for mean difference in the regression coefficient indicated that the null hypothesis (there is no difference between the marginal propensity to consume out of variables) was dismissed. Therefore, there is a difference in the amount of influence on consumer expenditure. Once again, these characteristics showed different aspects for different types of households. Finally, an inference about the mental accounting of households was made from the above analysis. This indicated that the households in the study were carrying out mental accounting, and that the aspects of mental accounting were different for different types of households. The discussions based on the results are as follows: First of all, financial planning may fail if the mental accounting and book accounting do not match in terms of financial management. Therefore, the financial planner must be able to understand the mental accounting of the clients. To achieve this, a separate subject for “behavioral finance” should be examined, with the Financial Planning Standard Board conducting a CFP certification program. In addition, the financial institution needs to develop educational programs to help financial planners understand the mental accounting of their clients. In addition, the aspects of mental accounting differ by type of household, and thus, the sources of main household income and the scale of household income should be considered when conducting financial planning.

Micro- and Macro-Level Factors Determining Financial Performance of UAE Insurance Companies

SASIDHARAN, Soumya,RANJITH, V.K.,PRABHURAM, Sunitha Korea Distribution Science Association 2020 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.7 No.12

The research aims to analyze the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors that affect insurance company's financial performance. The research explores the variables that influence the financial performance of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)' insurance companies. The analysis for determining financial performance considers the following variables: the firm's age, retention ratio, capital adequacy, underwriting risk/loss ratio, financial-leverage, reinsurance dependency, and macro-economic factors such as GDP per capita, inflation rate considered as independent factors. The return-on-asset (ROA) is the key measuring indicator; it is regarded as the dependent variable for financial performance measures. The research focuses on secondary information obtained from insurance companies' financial statements. The researcher targeted 18 insurance companies listed on the UAE stock exchanges for study purposes. The research examines the overall factors that influence the financial performance of an insurance company. For analysis of data, software package of social sciences (SPSS version 20) is used. The studies used correlation and multiple linear regression analysis to determine financial performance and their effects. The analysis suggests that there are important and constructive relationships between the size, capital adequacy, and reinsurance dependency, while loss ratio, retention ratio, and financial leverage indicate a major negative relationship. And there's no link between GDP per capita and inflation.

중장년 여성학습자의 금융이해력(Financial Literacy) 향상을 위한 요구 탐색 – 금융행위를 중심으로

박세영 한국성인계속교육학회 2023 성인계속교육연구 Vol.14 No.1

This study focused on the improvement of financial literacy of middle-aged women learners, and explored the learning needs of middle-aged women's 'Financial Behavior' at a specific level through qualitative research methods. 12 research participants in the 40s and 60s were interviewed by focus groups and groups, and themes were derived using the qualitative content analysis. Participants said that the purpose of financial activity was to achieve ‘economic freedom’. For this reason, they expect four educational needs for ideal financial behavior. These are ‘education needs for insufficient financial knowledge, education needs for planned financial management, systematic education needs for practice, and vocational education needs to secure stable income’. The results of the study are expected to be reflected in future middle-aged women and adult financial education programs. Given that the research participants connected financial education with vocational education, it was confirmed that financial education in lifelong education should not only deliver financial knowledge but also help actual financial behaviors.

부산항 컨테이너 터미널 운영사의 재무성과 분석

정인회,하명신,이진우 한국무역연구원 2019 무역연구 Vol.15 No.3

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the financial status and business performance of container terminal operators in Busan Port, Korea. This study is trying to analyze financial status and business performance of 8 Container Terminal Operators at North and New port in Busan. Methodology - This paper uses Financial Ratio Analysis of Business Analysis. Using audit reports of container terminal operators on Dart and financial statement analysis reports of the Bank of Korea from 2012 to 2017. Financial ratio analysis specially uses growth, activity, profitability and stability ratios. Findings - The result showed that financial ratio of Busan Container Terminal Operators is generally higher than the average ratio in industry. This study also identified weak points of integration effect between Container Terminal Operators. Research implications - This research is meaningful in that it focuses on the comparative financial status and business performance of Container Terminal Operators by examining financial data.

신흥경제권의 은행산업의 효율성에 관한 비교분석 : DEA분석방법과 클러스터 분석방법을 중심으로

박석강 한국산업경제학회 2009 산업경제연구 Vol.22 No.5

본 연구는 아시아 금융위기의 영향으로 인해 금융기관의 대규모적인 구조조정과 함께 외자계 은행이 중동구지역 또는 라틴아메리카, 아시아를 중심으로 적극적으로 진출한 신흥경제권의 은행부문의 효율성에 대해 DEA 분석방법과 클러스터 분석방법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 특히 신흥경제권 지역에 있어 은행산업부문의 기술효율성을 분석함과 동시에 신흥경제권 국가들의 국내은행과 외자계 은행과의 경영구조의 차이점에 대해서 검증하였다. 또한 외자계 은행에 대한 금융규제 및 진입규제의 자유화를 포함하여 신흥경제권의 금융산업과 자본시장에 있어서 정책적인 시사점을 도출하는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다. 분석결과에 의하면 은행부문의 기술효율성은 ASEAN 국가가 높고 외자계 은행의 진입이 한정적임에도 불구하고 서비스 부분에서 신흥경제권 가운데 효율성이 높은 은행부분을 가지고 있다. 특히 신흥경제권의 구조조정정책으로 인해 각 은행은 비효율적인 업무영역까지 확대하는 결과를 초래하였다. 따라서 금융위기 이후의 금융기관은 효율적인 측면에서 아직 충분한 성과를 내지 않고 있기 때문에 은행이 효율적인 경영을 하기 위해서는 선진금융기술의 도입, Corporate Governance 등의 도입이 필요하다. 특히 한국의 경우에는 소규모 은행이 규모면에서 효율적이지 않지만 수익면에서 효율적인 경영을 하고 있다는 결과를 추정하였다. 따라서 금융기관의 대형화보다는 자본시장이 발전하는 데 중추적인 금융기관을 육성함과 동시에 금융기관의 경영효율성과 서비스 시장을 확충할 필요가 있다. This research, the impact of the Asian financial crisis due to massive restructuring of financial institutions and foreign banks double eastern region or Latin America, Asia, and actively advancing the efficiency of the banking sector in emerging economies and how the DEA analysis using cluster analysis methods of analysis. Region's Emerging Markets, especially in the technical efficiency analysis of banking industry at the same time, Emerging Markets and countries with domestic banks and foreign banks for the difference between the management structure was verified. In addition, financial regulations and entry regulations for foreign banks, including the liberalization of the financial industry and capital markets of Emerging Markets in the policy to develop the lesson is the purpose of this research. According to analysis of technical efficiency of the banking sector, high foreign bank entry in the ASEAN countries did not qualify despite the Emerging Markets in the Services section of the bank has the highest efficiency. Restructuring policies of Emerging Markets, especially due to the inefficiency of each bank to increase business results by region. Therefore, after the financial crisis, financial institutions, effective enough in terms of performance, because without effective management of the Bank for the introduction of advanced financial technology, Corporate Governance, and needs to be introduced. Korea in the case of small scale, but it is more efficient in terms of revenue and efficient management can extrapolate the results. Therefore, the development of capital markets, rather than larger financial institutions to develop financial institutions, as well as a pivotal management efficiency and services of the financial institutions expanded market is necessary.

K-IFRS의 도입이 주요재무비율에 미치는 영향

임태균,배성호,정석우 한국회계정책학회 2012 회계와 정책연구 Vol.17 No.1

This study searched the problems caused by change of accounting standards and examined the matters to be considered when utilizing financial information produced by K-IFRS by analyzing the differences of major financial ratios caused by adoption of K-IFRS from the viewpoint of information users. This study analyzed the financial ratios among enterprises and by periods, using the data of 14 enterprises which adopted K-IFRS earlier. The results showed the differences in most financial statements regardless of the methods and the types of financial statements used for analysis. In the analysis of the same enterprise, the sizes and marks of financial ratios were different according to accounting standards. This suggests that decision-making would be erroneous when the enterprises are compared by the financial ratios produced by different accounting standards. The analysis showed that the possibility of periodic comparison would reduce because the increases and decreases of yearly financial ratios were different according to accounting standards. In addition, the result that major financial ratios were different by the types of financial statements used for production means that the possibility of financial ratio comparison would be decreased due to the changes of major financial statements by K-IFRS. This study discovered the differences of financial ratios caused by change of accounting standards to K-IFRS. This reduces the confusion in financial market following change of accounting standards because it makes financial information users consider differences of the comparison possibility in decision-making. In addition, this study can reduce the social costs to be caused by the change of accounting standards by helping appropriate organizations make decisions minimizing drastic changes in information circumstances, and can be utilized from the year of 2011 when dual accounting standards are applied according to whether the stocks are listed. 본 연구는 K-IFRS의 도입으로 인해 나타날 수 있는 주요재무비율 차이를 분석하여 회계기준 변경으로 발생할 수 있는 재무정보이용 상의 문제점과 K-IFRS에 의해 산출된 재무정보를 이용하는 경우 고려해야 할 사항을 살펴보았다. K-IFRS를 조기도입한 14개 기업을 이용하여 재무제표의 종류별로 기업간ㆍ기간간 재무비율을 분석한 결과 분석방법 및 분석에 사용한 재무제표의 종류에 상관없이 대부분의 주요재무비율에서 차이가 나타났다. 동일기업을 사용하여 분석하는 경우에도 회계기준에 따라 재무비율의 크기와 부호에 차이가 나타나는 결과는 서로 다른 회계기준이 적용되는 경우 기업간 비교를 통한 의사결정이 이전에 비해 상대적으로 복잡해짐을 의미한다. 또한 연도별 재무비율의 증감도 회계기준에 따라 다르게 나타나며, 재무비율의 산출에 사용된 재무제표의 종류에 따라서도 재무비율에서 유의한 차이가 나타나 K-IFRS의 도입으로 재무비율의 비교를 통한 의사결정이 힘들어지는 것으로 나타났다. K-IFRS의 도입으로 회계기준이 변경되는 경우 주요재무비율에 차이가 나타난다는 본 연구의 결과는 정보이용자가 회계기준에 따른 재무비율의 차이를 고려한 의사결정을 할 수 있게 한다. 또한 본 연구의 결과는 관련기관이 정보환경의 변화를 줄이는 방향으로 정보의 제시 및 정책결정을 할 수 있게 하며, 상장여부에 따라 이원적 회계기준이 적용되는 2011년 이후의 의사결정에도 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.