CMIP5 GCMs과 추정 방법에 따른 우리나라 기준증발산량 평가

박지훈,조재필,이은정,정임국,Park, Jihoon,Cho, Jaepil,Lee, Eun-Jeong,Jung, Imgook 한국농촌계획학회 2017 농촌계획 Vol.23 No.4

The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

아시아 Fluxnet 자료를 활용한 보완관계 기반 증발산량 추정

서호철,김정빈,박혜선,김연주 대한토목학회 2017 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.37 No.2

Evapotranspiration is a significant hydrologic quantity for understanding the amount of available water resource evaluation, waterbalance analysis, water circulation and energy circulation. Various methods have been developed for estimating the evapotranspiration using data observed at meteorological observatories. Especially, the focus of methods has been on the complementary relationship that the actual evapotranspiration is equal to the difference between the twice of evapotranspiration in the wet condition and the potential evapotranspiration. The Granger and Gary (GG) method is an empirical formula that can be used to estimate the evapotranspirationusing only empirical parameters based on the complementary relationship and using only the net radiation and temperature of the region. In this study, we compared the evapotranspiration data observed at 10 sites in Asia within the dataset of FLUXNET2015, with the evapotranspiration calculated by GG method. The evapotranspiration in inland area was estimated more accurately than that ofcoastal area. Simulated Annealing (SA) was used for the coastal area to modify the parameters. Using the modified GG method, we could improve the statistics such as root mean square error, the coefficient of determination (R2), and the mean absolute |BIAS| of the evapotranspiration estimation in coastal area. 증발산량은 수자원 부존량 평가, 물수지 분석, 지구의 물 순환 및 에너지 순환을 이해하기 위해서 알아야 할 중요한 수문량이다. 실제 증발산량이 습윤조건의 증발산량의 2배에서 잠재 증발산량을 제한 것과 같다는 보완관계(Complimentary relationship)를 기반으로 기상관측망 지점에서 일반적으로 관측되는 기상 자료를 이용해 증발산량을 산정하는 방법이 다양하게 개발되어 왔다. 이 중 Granger and Gary (GG)방법은 보완관계를 기반으로 경험적인 매개변수를 도입하여, 지역의 기온 등의 자료만 활용하여 증발산량을 산정할 수 있도록 하는 경험식이다. 본 연구에서 는 FLUXNET2015 자료 중 아시아 지역 내의 10개 지점에서 에디공분산법을 활용해서 관측된 증발산량 자료를 GG방법을 활용하여 산정한 증발산량과 비교하였다. 내륙지역의 경우 해안지역에 비해 상대적으로 정확하게 증발산량이 추정되었고, 이에 해안지역의 경우에만 담금질 기법(Simulated Annealing, SA)을 활용하여 GG방법의 매개변수를 수정하였다. 수정된 GG방법을 활용하여 증발산량 추정 결과의 Root mean square error, Coefficient of determination(R2), Mean absolute BIAS를 개선할 수 있었다.

위성기반 증발산량 및 토양수분량 산정 국내 연구동향

최가영,조영현,Choi, Ga-young,Cho, Younghyun 대한원격탐사학회 2022 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.38 No.6

The application of satellite imageries has increased in the field of hydrology and water resources in recent years. However, challenges have been encountered on obtaining accurate evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Therefore, present researches have emphasized the necessity to obtain estimations of satellite-based evapotranspiration and soil moisture with related development researches. In this study, we presented the research status in Korea by investigating the current trends and methodologies for evapotranspiration and soil moisture. As a result of examining the detailed methodologies, we have ascertained that, in general, evapotranspiration is estimated using Energy balance models, such as Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC). In addition, Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor equations are also used to estimate evapotranspiration. In the case of soil moisture, in general, active (AMSR-E, AMSR2, MIRAS, and SMAP) and passive (ASCAT and SAR)sensors are used for estimation. In terms of statistics, deep learning, as well as linear regression equations and artificial neural networks, are used for estimating these parameters. There were a number of research cases in which various indices were calculated using satellite-based data and applied to the characterization of drought. In some cases, hydrological cycle factors of evapotranspiration and soil moisture were calculated based on the Land Surface Model (LSM). Through this process, by comparing, reviewing, and presenting major detailed methodologies, we intend to use these references in related research, and lay the foundation for the advancement of researches on the calculation of satellite-based hydrological cycle data in the future.

Comparison of Evapotranspiration Estimated Using Simple and Complex Models

Eunhye Kwon,Byeong-hak Park,Kyung-woo Park 한국방사성폐기물학회 2023 한국방사성폐기물학회 학술논문요약집 Vol.21 No.1

Surface environmental factors such as climate change can affect the safety of the disposal system by changing groundwater recharge or flow. Therefore, it is important to identify surface environmental factors and hydrogeological factors to evaluate long-term changes in hydrogeological environment of a disposal system. In particular, evapotranspiration is an important to be considered because it loses 70% of rainfall and has a great effect on groundwater recharge. Evapotranspiration can be estimated using simple or complex models based on meteorological data. Meteorological data from January 2010 to December 2022 were collected from 44 Automatic Synoptic Observation Systems (ASOS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which observe factors necessary for calculating evapotranspiration. For the estimation of evapotranspiration through simple models, temperature-based models (Blaney-Criddle method, modified Blaney-Criddle method, Hargreaves-Samani method) and radiation-based models (Simple Abtew method, Makkink method, Prietley-Taylor method, Turc method, Solar radiation-Maximum temperature method) were used. The calculation of evapotranspiration through the complex model used the Penman-Monteith method, which is used as a standard model in the USA, Japan, and FAO. By comparing the evapotranspiration calculated by complex and simple model, methods with small errors were identified each region. In addition, long-term climate change scenarios were applied to confirm changes in long-term evapotranspiration in South Korea. The results of this study will be used to find alternative models in the case of missing data in the Penman-Monteith model, which requires a lot of meteorological data, and can be used as basic data for calculating groundwater recharge that can affect the disposal system in the future.

인공위성 자료를 활용한 광역증발산량의 산정방법 개발

신사철 ( Sha Chul Shin ),안태용 ( Tae Young An ) 한국지리정보학회 2007 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.10 No.2

증발산 현상은 중요한 수문순환과정 중의 하나로서 지상의 수분으로부터 발생하는 증발과 식물의 잎에서 발생하는 증산 과정을 합한 것이다. 증발산량을 산정하는 방법은 토양수분으로부터 간접적으로 추출하는 방법, 증발산량계에 의한 직접 추출방법 및 물수지 혹은 에너지수지를 이용하는 방법 등 매우 다양하다. 그러나 이러한 방법을 이용하여 지형 및 식생 등을 포함하는 지역적 특성을 고려하여 정확한 증발산량을 산정한다는 것은 대단히 어려운 일이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 인공위성 자료를 활용하여 지역적 특성을 고려한 증발산량 산정 모형의 개발을 목표로 하고 있다. 증발산현상은 기상조건에 큰 영향을 받으며, 그 기상조건은 그 지역의 식생피복 및 식생 성장에 많은 영향을 주게 된다. 이러한 점에서 식생정보는 그 지역의 복잡한 기상정보의 이력을 포함하고 있다고 볼 수 있으며, 식생지표와 증발산량과의 사이에는 높은 상관관계가 성립한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 NOAA/AVHRR 자료에서 얻어진 정규화식생지수(NDVI)를 이용하여 우리나라 전역에 대한 증발산량 산정 모형을 개발하였다. One of the most important hydrologic components is evapotranspiration. It is a process by which water is evaporated from moist land surfaces and transpired into atmosphere by plants. There are many methods of estimating evapotranspiration rate and its potential such as the methods of soil-moisture sampling, lysimeter measurements, water balance, energy balance, groundwater fluctuations and evapotranspiration. But it is very difficult to estimate evapotranspiration in terms of regional discrete characteristics of topography and/or vegetation. The evapotranspiration is strongly affected by ground covering vegetation, and the degree of vegetation growth. In order to grasp vegetation condition over a vast study area, NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices) calculated from the data obtained from NOAA/AVHRR were utilized. Through multi-regression analysis, we developed a model equation to estimate the evapotranspiration using NDVIs and temperature data.

LARS-WG를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 증발산량 산정

홍은미,최진용,이상현,유승환,강문성,Hong, Eun-Mi,Choi, Jin-Yong,Lee, Sang-Hyun,Yoo, Seung-Hwan,Kang, Moon-Seong 한국농공학회 2009 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.51 No.3

Climate change due to global warming possibly effects the agricultural water use in terms of evapotranspiration. Thus, to estimate rice evapotranspiration under the climate change, future climate data including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for 90 years ($2011{\sim}2100$), were forecasted using LARS-WG. Observed 30 years ($1971{\sim}2000$) climate data and climate change scenario based on SRES A2 were prepared to operate the LARS-WG model. Using these data and FAO Blaney-Criddle method, reference evapotranspiration and rice evapotranspiration were estimated for 9 different regions in South Korea and rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period was estimated using frequency analysis. As the results of this study, rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period increased 1.56%, 5.99% and 10.68% for each 30 years during $2011{\sim}2100$ (2025s; $2011{\sim}2040$, 2055s; $2041{\sim}2070$, 2085s; $2071{\sim}2100$) demonstrating that the increased temperature from the climate change increases the consumptive use of crops and agricultural water use.

제주 한천유역의 실제 증발산량 평가

김남원 ( Nam Won Kim ),이정은 ( Jeong Eun Lee ) 한국환경과학회 2013 한국환경과학회지 Vol.22 No.5

In this study, estimation methods for actual evapotranspiration have been studied using the concept of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Among the diverse estimation methods, SWAT-K application is chosen for hydrological modeling. For Jeju island we have characterized annual and monthly evapotranspiration using SWAT-K. In the results, simulated potential evapotranspiration reached to the 91% of small pan evaporation. With respect to the temperature lapse rate(-6℃/km) depending on the altitude of Halla mountain, evapotranspiration rate decreased by 7.5% compared to the status when the temperature data from the Jeju weather station were applied to the watershed. As the average of annual rainfall increased, potential evapotranspiration was increased, actual evapotranspiration was, however, decreased.

설마천유역 혼효림에서 실측된 증발산과 토양수분을 이용한 SWAT모형의 적용성 평가

조형경 ( Hyung Kyung Joh ),이지완 ( Ji Wan Lee ),신형진 ( Hyung Jin Shin ),박근애 ( Geun Ae Park ),김성준 ( Seong Joon Kim ) 한국농림기상학회 2010 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.12 No.4

국내 수문관측자료의 부족으로SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool) 모형의 적용성 평가는 대부분 유출 자료만을 사용하여 이루어진다. 본 연구는 실측된 여러 수문자료가 SWAT수문모형의 불확실성 및 오차의 감소를 위해 어떻게 이용될 수 있는 지에 대하여 알아보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 전형적인 산지 유역인 설마천 유역을 대상으로 준분포형 장기강우유출모형인 SWAT 모형을 적용하여 수문성분의 특성을 살펴보았다. 먼저 모형의 입력자료인 기상자료 및 지형자료를 획득하여 구축하였고, 모형의 검·보정 위하여 유출, 증발산, 토양수분 실측자료를 획득하였다. SWAT 모형은 유출량, 증발산, 토양수분 자료가 동시에 측정된 2007년 자료를 사용하여 보정된 후, SWAT 모형의 모의값은 유출량은 2003~2008년, 증발산과 토양수분은 2008년의 관측값과 비교, 분석한 뒤 전체적인 검증을 통해 모형의 적용성 평가를 실시하였다. 유출량의 검·보정 이용한 모의결과보다 다른 실측자료를 이용한 모의결과가 신뢰성이 높게 나타났다(결정계수(R(2)) 상향: 유출량은 0.72에서 0.76, 토양수분은 0.49에서 0.59, 증발산은 0.52에서 0.59). 유역의 실제적인 상황을 근접하게 모의하기 위해서는 다른 수문성분의 정확하고 신뢰성 있는 자료의 구축과 적용이 매우 중요하다고 판단된다. Common practice of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model validation is to use a single variable (i.e., streamlfow) to calibrate SWAT model due to the paucity of actual hydrological measurement data in Korea. This approach, however, often causes errors in the simulated results because of numerous sources of uncertainty and complexity of SWAT model. We employed multi-variables (i.e., streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture), which were measured at mixed forest in Seolmacheon catchment (8.54 km(2)), in order to assess the performance and reduce the uncertainties of SWAT model output. Meteorological and surface topographical data of the catchment were obtained as basic input variables and SWAT model was calibrated using daily data of streamflow (Jan. - Dec.), evapotranspiration (Sep. - Dec.), and soil moisture (Jun. - Dec.) collected in 2007. The model performance was assessed by comparing its results with the observation (i.e., streamflow of 2003 to 2008 and evapotranspiration and soil moisture of 2008). When the multi-variable measurements were used to calibrate the SWAT model, the model results showed better agreement with the measurements compared to those using a single variable measurement by showing increases in coefficient of determination (R(2)) from 0.72 to 0.76 for streamflow, from 0.49 to 0.59 for soil moisture, and from 0.52 to 0.59 for evapotranspiration. The findings highlight the importance of reliable and accurate collective observation data for improving performance of SWAT model and promote its facilitation for estimating more realistic hydrological cycles at catchment scale.

FAO Penman-Monteith 기준증발산식 민감도 분석

임창수 한국수자원학회 2023 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.56 No.4

Estimating the evapotranspiration is very important factor for effective water resources management, and FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) model has been applied for reference evapotranspiration estimation by many researchers. However, because various input data are required for the application of FAO P-M model, understanding the effect of each input data on FAO P-M model is necessary. Therefore, in this study, for 56 study stations located in South Korea, the effects of 8 meteorological factors (maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, net radiation, ground heat flux), energy and aerodynamic terms of FAO P-M model, and elevation on FAO P-M reference evapotranspiration (RET) estimation were analyzed. The relative sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how 10% increment of each specific independent variable affects a reference evapotranspiration under given set of condition that other independent variables are unchanged. Furthermore, to select the 5 representative stations and perform the monthly relative sensitivity analysis for those stations, 56 study stations were classified into 5 clusters using cluster analysis. The study results showed that net radiation was turned out to be the most sensitive factor in 8 meteorological factors for 56 study stations. The next most sensitive factor was relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum temperature, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed, followed by minimum temperature in order. Ground heat flux was the least sensitive factor. In case of ground surface condition, elevation showed very low positive relative sensitivity. Relativity sensitivities of energy and aerodynamic terms of FAO P-M model were 0.707 for energy term and 0.293 for aerodynamic term respectively, indicating that energy term was more contributable than aerodynamic term for reference evapotranspiration. The monthly relative sensitivities of meteorological factors showed the seasonal effects, and also the relative sensitivity of elevation showed different pattern each other among study stations. Therefore, for the application of FAO P-M model, the seasonal and regional sensitivity differences of each input variable should be considered. 증발산량을 산정하는 것은 수자원 관리에서 매우 중요한 요소이고, 많은 연구자들에 의해서 FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) 식이 기준증발산량을 산정을 위해 적용되고 있다. 하지만 FAO P-M 식에는 다양한 입력 변수들이 적용되어서, 이들 입력변수들의 영향력을 파악하는 것은 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라 56개 연구지역을 대상으로 8개의 기상요소들(최고기온, 최저기온, 풍속, 상대습도, 일사량, 증기압부족, 순복사량, 지중열유동)과 FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) 기준증발산식의 에너지항과 공기동력항, 그리고 고도의 변화에 따른 FAO P-M 기준증발산량 산정에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 다른 변량들은 고정한 상황에서 각 특정 변량을 10% 증가시킴에 따른 기준증발산량의 변화를 평가하기 위해 상대 민감도분석을 실시하였다. 또한 5개 대표 지역을 선정하여 그 지역들에 대해서 월별 민감도분석을 실시하고자 군집분석을 이용하여 56개 연구지역을 5개로 분류하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 56개 연구지역에서 8개의 기상요소 중에서 순복사량이 가장 민감한 것으로 나타났고, 다음으로 상대습도, 일사량, 최고기온, 증기압부족, 풍속, 최저기온 순으로 나타났다. 지중열유동은 가장 덜 민감한 요소인 것으로 나타났다. 지표면 특성의 경우, 고도는 매우 낮은 양의 상대 민감도를 보였다. FAO P-M 기준증발산식의 에너지항과 공기동력항의 상대적 민감도는 에너지항이 0.707, 공기동력항이 0.293을 보여서 에너지항이 공기동력항보다 기준증발산량 산정에 기여도가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 월별 민감도분석에 의하면 기상요소별 민감도는 계절적인 영향을 보이는 것으로 나타났고, 고도의 상대민감도는 지역 간 서로 다른 양상을 보였다. 따라서 FAO P-M 식 적용을 위해서는 입력변수의 지역적, 계절적 민감도 차이를 고려해야할 것으로 판단된다.

A national-scale drought assessment in Uganda based on evapotranspiration deficits from the Bouchet hypothesis

Kyatengerwa, Christelle,Kim, Daeha,Choi, Minha Elsevier 2020 Journal of hydrology Vol.580 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>For effective management of drought risks, a process-specific indicator needs to be employed rather than depending only on precipitation anomalies. In this study, we performed an evapotranspiration-based (ET-based) assessment of agricultural droughts in Uganda where drought has usually been assessed with precipitation deficiency. The land-surface ET and evaporative demand were estimated with a state-of-the-art complementary principle across the country under poor ET data availability. Using the ET estimates, the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI) was quantified to assess agricultural droughts for 1984–2017. The ET-based drought assessment was compared with conventional precipitation-based analyses using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in respect of severity, areal extent, and temporal trends. Results showed that the complementary principle provided acceptable performance in reproducing interpolated latent flux observations. SPI and SEDI were strongly correlated, and thus yielded identical temporal variations of mean drought severity and areal extent. The trend maps of SPI and SEDI also tended to agree, and indicate that central and northwestern Uganda would face increasing drought risks in the future. The declining precipitation in Uganda has been attributed to rising surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean, and is expected to persist up to the next decade. This study suggests that droughts in major croplands could be often accompanied by high heat-wave temperatures in Uganda due to strong land-atmosphere coupling, and thus mortality risks in ecosystems could increase together with water stress.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> The latest generalized complementary principle acceptably estimated evapotranspiration deficits. </LI> <LI> Drought indications by precipitation and evapotranspiration deficits agreed in general. </LI> <LI> Drought and heatwave risks in Uganda could rise together due to declining precipitation. </LI> </UL> </P>