중국의 대만통일 전략과 한국의 해양안보 - 일국양제를 위한 회색지대 전략과 삼전(三戰) -

전창빈 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.2

본 논문의 목적은 일국양제가 중국의 통일정책의 핵심개념으로서 회색지대 전략과 삼전(三戰)을 통해 수행되고 있음을 밝히는 것이다. 연구자는 본 논문을 통해 중국이 대만통일 전략인 일국양제를 위해 대만에 대하여 어떻게 회색지대 전략과 삼전을 적용해왔는지 고찰하고, 한국에 주는 해양안보적 함의를 도출하여 한국군의 대비 방향을 제시하고자 하였다. 본 논문에서 연구자는 라이케(Lykke)가 제시한 전략의 3요소(목표, 방법, 수단)에서 착안하여 분석의 틀을 사용하였다. 중국이 대만 주변에서 다양한 형태로 무력시위를 하는 것은 명백한 회색지대 전략의 구사라고 볼 수 있다. 대만 주변 해역에 미사일을 쏘거나 대만 섬을 사방에서 포위하는 해상봉쇄전략을 펼치는 것, 중국 전투기가 대만과 중국 사이의 중간선을 침범하거나 대만의 방공식별구역의 서남 공역에 진입하는 행동 등도 회색지대 전략의 예로 들 수 있다. 중국의 대만에 대한 삼전 적용의 예로서, 법률전으로 반분열국가법 시행을 들 수 있고, 심리전으로 대만 외교의 고립을 유도하는 행위를 들 수 있으며, 여론전으로는 ‘양안은 하나의 가족(海峽兩岸一家親)’의 슬로건을 내세우며 민족과 문화 측면에서 중국과 대만이 하나임을 강조했던 중국의 정책을 들 수 있다. 중국은 대만통일 정책을 결코 포기 없이 앞으로도 지속 추진할 것으로 전망된다. 아울러 양안문제를 두고 미·중 간 갈등도 지속될 것이다. 결과적으로, 사회주의 제도와 자본주의 제도는 한 국가 안에서 양립할 수 없다는 것이 밝혀지고 있음에도 불구하고 중국은 무리하게 이를 추진해 오고 있다. 그리고 그 부작용은 지금의 대만사태를 초래하였다. 어느 때 더는 일국양제가 불가능한 것임을 깨닫는 순간 중국은 대만을 무력을 사용하여 강제 병합하려 할 것이다. 이것이 중국이 추진하는 일국양제의 본질이다. 따라서, 한반도 주변 해역에서 중국에 의해 수행되는 모든 비군사적 도발과 저강도 군사적 도발은 오랜 시간이 걸릴지라도 결과적으로 군사적 충돌로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 중국의 일국양제 통일전략으로부터 몇 가지 해양안보적 측면의 함의를 도출할 수 있는데, 첫째, 중국은 통일중국이라는 목표(Ends)를 수립하고 이를 달성하기 위해 장기간에 걸친 전략적 인내를 감수해 오고 있다는 점, 둘째, 중국은 한반도 주변해역에서 국가이익에 해당하는 중요 사안이 발생할 경우 회색지대 전략과 삼전을 주요 방법(Ways)으로 사용할 것이라는 점, 셋째, 중국의 대만 무력 침공 가능성이 있고 침공 시 인-태 지역에 미치는 영향은 매우 클 것이라는 점 등이다. 한국군이 추구해야 할 해양안보 측면에서의 대응 방향은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국군은 한반도 주변에서의 중국군의 활동에 대해 그 목표(Ends)를 정확히 분석·도출하고 본질을 파악하도록 모니터링을 강화해야 하며, 중장기 전력강화 사업에 대해 전략적 인내를 가지고 추진해야 한다. 둘째, 서해공정과 이어도를 포함한 동중국해에서 중국에 의해 수행(Ways)되는 회색지대 전략과 삼전에 대비하여 한국군은 인지하는 즉시 초기에 선제적이고 적극적으로 대응해야 한다. 셋째, 일국양제를 거부하는 대만에 대한 중국의 무력 침공 시 한반도에 미칠 영향에 대비하여 다양한 시나리오별 군사적 대응방안을 구체적으로 마련해야 한다.

중국의 서해와 동중국해 내해화를 위한 군사활동 증가와 한국의 대응전략에 관한 소고(小考)

김덕기 한국해양안보포럼 2022 한국해양안보논총 Vol.5 No.1

The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of China’s maritime A2/AD power reinforcement and power projection in the West and East China Seas, including Ieodo, on the security of the Korean Peninsula, and suggest the Republic of Korea’s counter-strategy as follows. First, in terms of diplomacy aspect, Seoul must make it clear to China that the boundary line in the West Sea between Korea and China should be established through an equidistant solution based on the coastlines of the two countries. The ROK should also require China to comply with international laws and agreements which were agreed upon with East Asian countries and International Cooperation Organization(Sea: CUES, CoC, Air: GAME, etc.) to prevent accidental collisions in the sea and air in the West and East China Seas. Second, in terms of international maritime law, South Korea should induce China to agree on a median line in the West Sea based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS), and create a favorable environment for negotiating the continental shelf boundary in the West and East China Seas. Seoul should also continue its efforts to reach agreements with Beijing on the scale of fishing vessels in the interim measures between Korea and China and the control of illegal fishing of Chinese vessels in the ROK’s EEZ waters. Third, in terms of military strategy, South Korea should conclude a memorandum of understanding(MOU) with China to prevent maritime clashes in the West and East China Seas. The ROK armed forces should also prepare the rules of engagement(ROE) in preparation for disputing with China in the West and East China Seas. In addition, the ROK MND should continue to cooperate with China’s counterpart to build military trust between the two countries’ high-level officials. Korea should also continue to strengthen the strategic bases of the five northwestern islands, including deploying strategic and cruise missiles. Finally, in terms of operational aspects, South Korea must come up with a comprehensive counter-strategy and plan against the threats from North Korea and China in the West Sea. In addition, South Korea should come up with a plan for joint operations and naval patrol operations in the West Sea, moving 123 degrees East longitude.

군 사회복지 향상이 전투력에 기여(장애인 부양가족 지원, 군 사회복지사 도입 중심)

신창대 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.1

This study attempted to examine that the substantial improvement of military social welfare by introducing family support specifically for disabled members and by employing military welfare workers could contribute to enhancing military combat power. To this end, welfare policies for R.O.K. Armed Forces personnel and their families were reviewed and the current status of support for disabled dependents in the military social welfare sector was analyzed in comparison with national social welfare policies. Considering environmental changes in the 21st century support for disabled dependents in the military social welfare sector is not recognizable if compared to the level of society development. And though various compensation benefit and flexible work systems are implemented the budget limits the number of beneficiaries. In addition there is no dedicated department which manages and promotes this projects. Therefore, in this study, relevant tasks are issued through analyzing current status of support for the disabled family members. Moreover, based on cases of military welfare workers operating in major foreign leading countries, it suggested necessity to employing military welfare workers to promote inter- operating social welfare systems already being in action in local community, such as providing mental health care. In near future, these measures need to be developed in a defense policy level, for example, implementing them in the Ministry of National Defense’s 2023 fiscal year Basic Plan for Military Welfare. It is critical that fostering military morale and welfare for men and women in the Armed Forces and their families who strive to “shaping winning forces in any fight” under any circumstances.

‘항해의 자유’와 미국의 ‘항행의 자유’ 작전에 관한 소고

배규성 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.2

This paper consists of raising the following questions and answering them. In the introduction, what ideas and origins are the U.S. Department of Defense’s ‘Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs)’ based on? What is Freedom of Navigation (FON)? How has Freedom of Navigation developed in maritime customary law (Customs of the Sea) and international maritime law (UNCLOS)? In the main text, on what logic and under what international legal basis has the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) been operating the FONOPs program? What does this mean for American foreign policy? And what are the pros and cons of this program? Finally, the following conclusions were drawn. Although FONOPs are more expensive to maintain by military means, the political costs are significant, and all the elements for protracted crises are present, the U.S. foreign policy obsession with FON made the U.S. DoD conduct the program annually around the world. Despite opinions for and against, FONOP is so important to U.S. foreign policy that it is unlikely that the U.S. will abandon this program.

해외 온톨로지 현황과 한국군 온톨로지 개발방안

김정윤,이경화 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.1

군 온톨로지는 정보공유와 지식표현을 용이하게 함으로써 최종적으로 보다 신속하고 효율적이며 정확한 지휘결심이 이루어지도록 지원할 뿐만 아니라 군의 다양한 분야에 다양한 목적으로도 활용될 수 있다. 이미 해외선진국은 온톨로지를 지휘통제(Command & Control(C2)), 정보감시정찰(Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), 모의훈련(Simulation and Training), 군수(Logistics), 사이버보안(Cybersecurity) 등에 적용하고 있다. 본 논문은 해외애서의 온톨로지 관련 연구 이슈와 군 활용사례에 대한 조사내용을 담고 있으며, 주요 연구이슈와 개발된 기법, 도구, 활용되고 있는 온톨로지 사례의 개요 등의 전반적인 흐름을 파악한다. 또한 한국군의 다양한 분야에 어떻게 개발할 것인지에 대한 방향도 제시한다.

핀란드와 스웨덴의 나토 가입과 안보 레짐의 재편

한종만 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.1

One of the reasons for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was to contain the spread of NATO. This invasion had a paradoxical result, apparently causing NATO unity and expansion in violation of international law. As a result, NATO’s eastward expansion has become visible, and military cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries has also expanded, leading to ‘NATO’s globalization’. As the importance of NATO in the face of Russia and China’s expansionism has been highlighted, Finland and Sweden, which have historically maintained neutral countries for a long time, applied for NATO membership in May, making the emergence of a new Cold War era visible in earnest. Unless there is a change, it is expected that Finland and Sweden will join NATO by the end of this year or the first half of next year. Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO has given NATO a significant edge in the Baltic and Arctic, and a new security regime is being restructured. Despite the weakening military power that has emerged on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia still possesses a formidable arsenal that will be a game-changer as well as a powerful nuclear asset. Going forward, NATO will focus on curbing Russian and Chinese expansionism. Even after the end of the war in Ukraine, a recurrence of the war cannot be ruled out. Western sanctions against Russia and escalating tensions between Russia and NATO are expected to continue.

한국형 항공모함 도입에 따른 경제적 파급효과 전망

김정윤 한국해양안보포럼 2021 한국해양안보논총 Vol.4 No.1

The Korean light carrier aquisition project, which was determined to be essential for national security, is strongly opposed due to concerns about it becoming expensive targets and its huge costs. Both are cost-related. However, the expected industrial ripple effects from the aquisition can dispel concerns about these costs to some extent. The ripple effects mainly affect the aviation and shipbuilding industries. Of course, the aquisition of the carrier and its operation cost are an economic burden, but it is not a money that simply disappears. The cases of the United Kingdom and the United States, which are advanced countries in carrier operation, show what kind of effect it will have. The Scottish case in England shows how the acquisition of carriers can contribute to the overall economy of the community, while the San Diego case in the US shows the impact of the presence of carriers. In order to predict the industrial ripple effect, it is necessary to select a valid forecasting method after investigating the target industries and various methods for which the ripple effect is predicted. Although the content of this paper is not the result of performing analysis in earnest, it introduces which methods can be selected. The ripple effect is the result of technology development that occurs during the light carrier acquisition, and can be divided into the direct budget effect and the technology ripple effect, and the results are expressed as output and impact. Although this paper does not apply these methods, as a rough estimate, the cost is estimated by referring to various cases, and the direction of the approximate effect can be suggested. In conclusion, it will be possible to foresee the size of the economic ripple effect from the acquisition of light carriers and able to dispel concerns about the cost.

지속 가능한 해양생태계를 위한 제언

조영준 한국해양안보포럼 2023 한국해양안보논총 Vol.6 No.1

The sea has economic and environmental value as a pleasant living environment and recreational space, and is also a treasure trove of valuable fisheries, mineral resources, and energy resources that can protect the survival of mankind in the future. However, the sea is a state in which the natural purification ability is reaching its limit due to the complex factors of marine pollution and environmental destruction caused by various garbage and oil spills from ships. Recently, the international community is moving toward a new ocean order system through SDGs to pursue basic rights that will be sustainable for future generations. SDG Goal 14, ‘Marine Ecosystem’, is the conservation and sustainable use of the ocean, seas and marine resources with the goal of keeping the sea healthy for sustainable development. In order to create a healthy sea, it is essential to manage pollutants from land. In the past, environmental problems were limited to one region, but now they have become top priorities that need to be addressed urgently on a global scale. Environmental protection must now be protected through international cooperation with individual national efforts. The sea is a source of life that holds countless lives and regulates temperature and humidity, which is a valuable resource that affects life on land. are under threat We must recognize marine environmental problems and have a will to practice to protect marine ecosystems. In particular, along with the systematic collection of marine debris, preservation and use of marine resources to maintain the marine ecosystem, participation of all citizens for a sustainable sea, and systematic policy establishment and promotion by the government must continue.

북한 전술핵미사일 시대의 군사대비 발전 방안 - 한국형미사일방어(KAMD) 체계를 중심으로 -

이승준 한국해양안보포럼 2022 한국해양안보논총 Vol.5 No.2

The purpose of this study is to find a plan for military readiness development of the North Korea tactical nuclear missile age. North Korea has been developing and possessing nuclear weapons over the several decades in secret amid concern of international society since the North Korea- the Soviet Union Atomic Energy Agreement was signed in march of 1956, and a scientific team has been sent to the 「Dubna Nuclear Research Institute」in order to training them. After that, North Korea had checked it out all over the world that they possessed nuclear weapons through the success of the underground nuclear test on October 9, 2006. Continually, they was clarifying their intent of the attack against the ROK through make tactical nuclear missile operations visible. According to the research results, now the ROK must continue to crystallize its military readiness posture by the style of ‘preliminary action candidate report’ prepare for the tactical nuclear missile attack of North Korea, and henceforward, must develop the capability of its military readiness that the KAMD system has the omnidirectional and three-dimensional missile detecting and intercepting capability.

한국군의 직업군인 정년연장 필요성에 대한 고찰

전기석 한국해양안보포럼 2022 한국해양안보논총 Vol.5 No.2

The purpose of this study is to examine the reasons for the necessity of extending the retirement age of the Korean military from the viewpoint of strategic human resource management. While there is a demand for changes in the military service system due to population decline, young career soldiers are currently being discharged because of the retirement age. Social awareness of this is lacking. The reason why the retirement age extension of professional soldiers is necessary is considered from four aspects. First, considering the situation in Korea and the United States, difficulties in securing military human resources can be expected. Extending the retirement age of career soldiers is essential for strategic human resource management in a situation where military human resources are declining. Second, in terms of job security, the necessity of extending the retirement age of the Korean military is examined through cases of foreign advanced military, cases of general public officials, police and firefighting officials in Korea, and cases of companies. Third, the view that members can be complacent about the issue of extending the retirement age is only considering the negative aspects too much. The problem of extending the retirement age is also related to the improvement of mastery of expertise. Fourth, if the retirement age of professional soldiers is extended, it is possible to secure adequate human resources to maintain the combat power of the military without greatly increasing the economic burden of the military pension. Fifth, it is necessary to extend the retirement age in terms of physical function.