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농촌형 지역경제 및 산업 기상도 구축을 위한 지표 발굴
김용렬(Yong-lyoul Kim),윤병석(Byeong-seok Yoon) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
As rural Korea becomes more complex and diversified economically and socially, it is necessary to explain the current economic situation and predict future prospects. However, the situation is that the macro indicators and statistical data to carry out the task are greatly lacking. Therefore, this study aims to develop indicators that can help capture the overall picture of the rural economy and industries in Korea. The regional statistical data used for explaining the economic situation in rural areas are largely found at the part of population, regional economy, finance, agriculture, transportation, and tourism of national census and statistical annals of a county(Gun) level. However, in most cases the data are national or provincial data, or worse, there isnt even statistical data available. In the case of indicators, the data are released by the National Statistical Office or Bank of Korea, but as in the case of regional statistics, economic indicators at the provincial and national levels are abundant whereas indicators at the county level are lacking. To make up for the shortcoming, it is necessary to either process existing statistics or develop new indicators by using statistical techniques. A comparative analysis of the relative importance of economic indicators by experts has revealed that it is imperative to expand the scale of survey and publication of the provincial and national level indicators concerning labor productivity index, agricultural indicators of profit, productivity and stability, consumer price index, and farms sale and purchase price index. The rural economic map should be comprised of price index, financial situation, employment situation, regional economic growth, farm household economy, and income index. Based on this it should be possible to understand the current situation concerning employment, degree of economic growth, regional differences, and jobs. And this would allow one to understand how the economic situation in rural areas differs from the economic situation at the provincial and national levels. Even though there are statistical limits, it will be possible to develop a system that can capture the year-to-year state of the rural economy through continuous development of indicators based on given statistics and development of estimates by using statistical techniques.
金容烈 ( Yong Lyoul Kim ),洪俊杓 ( Jun Pyo Hong ) 국제지역학회 2012 국제지역학회 춘계학술대회 Vol.2012 No.-
본 연구에서는 「2015담양세계대나무엑스포」 개최에 따른 지역파급효과를 분석하였다. 엑스포 예산 145억 원으로 인한 지역경제 파급효과를 추정하기 위해 지역산업연관표를 활용하였고, 방문객 수와 방문객 지출액은 제주도를 제외한 전국의 1,000명을 대상으로 한 설문조사를 근거로 하여 산출하였다. 엑스포 예산 145억 원의 투입에 따라 개최지역인 전남지역에 총생산은 175억 원이 유발되며, 부가가치는 82억원, 신규고용은 252명이 창출될 것으로 분석되었다. 엑스포 관람을 위해 방문하는 방문객 수는 외국인을 포함해 최소 890,512명에서 최대 1,084,682명에 이르는 것으로 분석되었다. 방문객의 지출에 따른 파급효과를 살펴보면, 방문객 1인당 평균 82,817원을 지출하는 것으로 분석되었다. 방문객이 지출하게 되는 총소비지출액은 약 766억 원에서 약 898억 원에 이르는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 총소비지출에 따른 지역경제파급효과는 평균적으로 생산유발효과는 약 1,930억 원, 부가가치는 평균 852억 원, 신규고용은 평균 5,801명 정도가 창출될 것으로 추정되었다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the regional economic impact of the of 2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo. This study uses the regional input-output table for the regional economic impact analysis. This study conducts a nation-wide survey to 1,000 people in order to derive the number of visitors and their expenditures at the Expo. Damyang-gun`s budget for the Expo(14.5 billion won) induces 17.5 billion won of total production increment, 8.2 billion won of value-added increment, and 252 employments increment into Jeonnam areas. Based on the nation-wide survey, visitors for the Expo are calculated and their range are from 890,512 to 1,084,682 people. According to an analysis on the visitors expenditures, one visitor expends 82,817 won on an average and total expense are estimated at 76.6 to 89.8 billion won. Furthermore, regional economic impacts accured by the Expo are 193 billion won of production induce effect, 85.2 billion won of value added increment, and 5,801 employment increment on an average.
김용렬(Yong-Lyoul Kim),박시현(Shi-Hyun Park),최경은(Kyung-Eun Choi) 한국농어촌관광학회 2007 농어촌관광연구 Vol.14 No.2
This paper is to analyze and forecast the demand and supply of rural tourism, and to find strategies for development of rural tourism in Korea. During the period from the launch of the Rural Tourism Village Program in 2002 until 2006, a total of 398 rural tourism villages have been designated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), the Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs (MGAHA), the Rural Development Administration (RDA), the Ministry of Culture and Tourism (MCT), and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF) respectively. Rural tourism is expanding in Korea. The demand for rural tourism has sharply increased since 2000. The forecast says that the demand for rural tourism taking a broad sense, in 2012, total rural tourists will be 66,702 thousand persons or 23.4% of total national tourism, and it will be 98,461 thousand persons or 32.8% in 2017. Taking a narrow sense of rural tourism, the demand for rural tourism in 2012 will be is 9,749 thousand persons or 3.4% of total national tourism, and it will be 15,915 thousand persons or 5.3% in 2017.
Spatial Effect of Highways on Employment in Missouri
김용렬 Kim, Yong-Lyoul 한국농촌경제연구원 2007 농촌경제 Vol.30 No.1
The purpose of this paper is to determine if there is a relationship between highway development and the spatial pattern of employment growth in Missouri. In order to determine if there is a spatial pattern to the employment growth in the county, a spatial lag model was estimated and contrasted with a simpler model that did not consider spatial relationships. My intention is to figure out how highways in a county and neighboring counties affect the employment of that county. Interstate highways in Missouri are shown not to have positive effects on employment growth. The “mileage of four-lane roads in a county” variable has significant and negative effects on employment growth. The “number of miles of two-lane roads within a county” variable has an insignificant and negative effect. In addition, “two lane road mileage in surrounding counties” has insignificant and positive effects. The spatial autoregressive coefficient (ρ) is significantly positive, implying that there is a positive spatial interaction between the counties. Results suggest that road networks that are too dense can have negative impacts on employment growth in a county, and that highway overinvestment may lead to diminishing employment returns in Missouri.
김용렬 ( Yong Lyoul Kim ),정학균 ( Hak Kyun Jeong ),허주녕 ( Joo Nyung Heo ) 한국농촌계획학회 2014 농촌계획 Vol.20 No.4
The public value of agriculture and rural areas is closely associated with the concept of multifunctionality of agriculture and rural areas, which in turn signifies economic values other than the production function of agriculture and rural areas. Based on the survey results, virtual scenarios were set up and the contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to estimate the amount consumers are willing to pay (WTP) for the public functions of agriculture and rural areas. This study selected five domains of the public value (environment conservation, maintenance of landscape and cultural tradition, enhancement of national prestige, local community maintenance and socio-economic functions, and food security) and 21 value items as components of the public value. An economic assessment of the public value of agriculture and rural areas was conducted using a binomial logistic regression model. The estimation results showed that the public value consumers are willing to pay ranges from a minimum of 6,346.8 billion won to a maximum of 9,327.2 billion won.