동아시아 FTA Hub 전략의 경제적 효과와 타당성 검토

정재화,정인교 韓國東北亞經濟學會 2009 동북아경제연구 Vol.21 No.1

East Asian countries have continued to pursue an active FTA policy since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In the region, ASEAN+1 type of FTAs are already in effect or have been concluded between the ASEAN and the three Northeast Asian countries (Korea, Japan, China) along with the deeper integration of the AFTA which combines the ten ASEAN member countries. At the same time, active discussions have been conducted on a possible FTA that covers the entire East Asian region, an East Asia FTA (EAFTA). If this EAFTA is concluded, it is expected to surpass the size of NAFTA and to have even greater ripple effects. According to the CGE analysis on the economic effects of an East Asia FTA (EAFTA), the FTA is expected to be beneficial to the countries in the region. A regional FTA among countries in Northeast Asia or East Asia will have greater rewards than bilateral FTAs between two countries. In particular, Korea is deemed to be the greatest beneficiary of an EAFTA. And if China and Japan do not conclude an FTA and Korea concludes FTAs with ASEAN China and Japan and becomes an East Asian FTA hub, the economic effects are expected to be even greater. Notwithstanding the economic benefits that come from being an FTA hub, the merits of an East Asia FTA covering the entire region will be even greater. First of all, it will be possible to lower the rising transaction costs that ensue from the intertwined regional FTA network Also, higher economic efficiency is expected in the mid-term and long-term from the harmonization of the different systems. Therefore, the straightforward strategy for Korea would be to pursue an East Asia FTA and strategically promote FTAs with Japan and China to get a strategic advantage in the future East Asia FTA negotiation process. In fact, under the current situation in which an FTA among the three major countries in Northeast Asia, Korea, China and Japan, is deterred by various obstacles, an East Asia FTA could be the favored alternative. This is because an FTA combining the entire region could alleviate the conflicting interests of individual industry sectors that may arise from a bilateral FTA. In addition, it would be possible to establish a more flexible level of trade liberalization in goods under an East Asia FTA.

韓ᆞ中 FTA의 經濟效果 推定

鄭仁敎 한국국제경제학회 2006 국제경제연구 Vol.12 No.1

多者間 貿易體制下의 貿易障壁緩和가 韓國經濟에 미치는 영향 : Economic Effects on Korea

鄭仁敎 한양대학교 서해경제연구소 1997 서해경제연구 Vol.2 No.-

Gas chromatography-mass spectrometric method for the screening and quantification of illicit drugs and their metabolites in human urine using solid-phase extraction and trimethylsilyl derivatization

Cheong, Jae Chul,Suh, Sung Ill,Jun Ko, Beom,Kim, Jin Young,In, Moon Kyo,Cheong, Won Jo WILEY-VCH Verlag 2010 Journal of separation science Vol.33 No.12

<P>A simple and rapid GC-MS method has been developed for the screening and quantification of many illicit drugs and their metabolites in human urine by using automatic SPE and trimethylsilylation. Sixty illicit drugs, including parent drugs and their metabolites that are possibly abused in Korea, can be monitored by this method. Among them, 24 popularly abused illicit drugs were selected for quantification. Very delicate optimizations were carried out in SPE, trimethylsilylation derivatization, and GC/MS to enable such remarkable achievements. Trimethylsilylated analytes were well separated within 21 min by GC-MS. In the validation results, the LOD of all the analytes were in the range of 2–75 ng/mL. The LOQ of the quantified analytes were in the range of 5–98 ng/mL. The linearity (r<SUP>2</SUP>) of the quantified analytes ranged 0.990–1.000 in each concentration range between 10 and 1000 ng/mL. The mean recoveries ranged from 62 to 126% at three different concentrations of each analyte. The inter-day and inter-person accuracies were within −13.3∼14.9%, and −10.1∼13.0%, respectively, and the inter-day and inter-person precisions were less than 12.9%. The method was reliable and efficient for the screening and quantification of abused illicit drugs in routine urine analysis.</P>

한·베트남 FTA: 예상 쟁점이슈 및 파급영향 분석

정인교 ( In Kyo Cheong ) 한국국제통상학회 2012 국제통상연구 Vol.17 No.2

한-아세안 FTA를 통해 우리나라는 베트남과 FTA를 이행해 오고 있다. 하지 만, 협정내용이 부실하여 기업들의 FTA 활용률이 매우 저조한 상황이다. 이로 인 해 우리나라와 베트남은 2009년부터 양국간 FTA 체결 논의해 왔고, 2012년 7월부터 협상에 돌입하기로 하였다. 본 연구는 한국-베트남과의 경제 관계를 분석하고, FTA 추진 필요성을 고찰하며, 양국간 FTA 협상에서 논의될 수 있는 주요 이슈를 분석하고 있다. FTA 추진 필요성을 강조하기 위해 CGE 모형을 이용한 양국 간 FTA 경제효과를 제시하고 있다. 본 추정치는 한-아세안 FTA 협정 이행 이후 잔존하는 관세를 철폐할 경우 발생하는 경제효과로, 우리나라와 베트남은 양국간 FTA 체결로 상당한 경제이익을 기대할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. At the bilateral Summit in 2009, both leaders of Viet Nam and Korea agreed to start to explore the possibility and feasibility of a bilateral FTA between Viet Nam and Korea. Bothe parties should discuss various issues of relevance for a possible bilateral FTA, such as an analysis of bilateral trade and investment, the effects of the FTA, FTA coverage including trade in goods, trade in services, investment, IPR, e-commerce as well as dispute settlement, and the possible impact of the bilateral FTA. In general, Korean companies` utilization rates of the ASEAN-Korea FTA are low, compared with those of companies in the US and Europe for NAFTA and the EU`s FTAs respectively. Korea wants to seek a FTA with Vietnam to replace current FTA in order to improve utilization rates with ASEAN countries. This paper shows substantial economic gains for Korea and Vietnam with a comprehensive bilateral FTA, but the negotiation is not likely to be concluded easily because of Vietnam`s political-economic approach regarding its worsening trade deficits with Korea.

이행중인 FTA 무역피해 대책 개선에 대한 연구 -한,아세안 FTA 및 한-인도 CEPA를 중심으로-

정인교 ( In Kyo Cheong ) 한국국제통상학회 2011 국제통상연구 Vol.16 No.1

본 논문에서는 당초 전망과는 달리 현재 이행중인 FTA로 인한 TAA 신청기업의 수가 작은 이유를 분석하고, 우리나라 TAA 제도의 개선방향을 모색하기 위해 작성되었다. 현재 이행중인 FTA중 우리 기업들이 가장 큰 관심을 가질 것으로 예상되었고, TAA 지원 기업의 숫자도 클 것으로 생각되었던 한-아세안 FTA로 인한 무역피해가 거의 발생하지 않는 원인을 (1) FTA 시장개방 내용 및 (2) 현행 TAA 제도의 한계를 중심으로 분석하고 있다. 이어 2010년에 이행된 우리나라 첫 거대경제권과의 FTA인 한-인도 CEPA로 인한 TAA 신청기업 수를 추정하고, 마지막으로 우리나라 TAA 제도에 대한 개선방안을 제시하고 있다. 결론에서는 지금까지 이행된 FTA하에서는 달리, 향후 EU 및 미국과의 FTA가 이행되면 많은 수의 무역피해 기업들이 발생할 것이고, 이들 기업들을 효과적으로 지원하기 위해서는 현행 무역조정지원 제도를 개선할 필요가 있음을 제시하고 있다. Currently only 5 companies were allowed to benefit from the Korea`s Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program since the effectuation of the TAA law in 2007. This paper tries to analyze the backgrounds for smaller number of TAA firms than expected in Cheong (2005) study, in terms of market access of the ASEAN-Korea FTA and the qualification guideline of the TAA. Also, the paper estimates the number of TAA firms under the India-Korea CEPA in order to check whether the most recent FTA will change the trend of TAA firms. In conclusion, the paper argues that unlike current trend, the implementation of Korea`s FTAs with EU and US will produce high pressure for structural adjustment, providing policy implications for reforming the TAA program.

The Impact of COVID-19 and Korea’s New Southern Policy on Its Global Value Chain

Jeong-Ho Yoo,Seul-Ki Park,In-Kyo Cheong 한국무역학회 2020 Journal of Korea trade Vol.24 No.8

Purpose – The Korean government has been promoting the New Southern Policy (NSP) prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which damage global value chain (GVC). The purpose of this paper is to emphasize that the NSP should be developed to provide tangible support in corporate GVC adjustment, away from diplomatic activities in order to offset GVC losses due to COVID-19 and expand export capabilities. Design/methodology – Two research methodologies are combined for this paper: A computational general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to estimate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and NSP on Korea’s exports, and the decomposition methodology (Wang, Wei and Zhu, 2013) to evaluate the stability of GVC. The conventional CGE model was modified to obtain an estimate for decomposition. The research methodology adopted in this study was attempted for the first time, and it can be widely used in future GVC research. Findings – Results found the effects of COVID-19 reduced Korea’s total exports by 27% and GVC by more than 30%. In particular, VA in Korea’s exports to the NSP region was found to have a huge impact in heavy industries and textiles, and its exports to Vietnam seemed to suffer the largest loss in GVC among ASEAN countries. If the NSP is implemented properly, it appears that it could offset much of the negative impacts of COVID-19, implying the importance of the effectiveness of the NSP. Originality/value – Many papers have assessed the NSP descriptively, and the GVC has been a topic for many publications. However, the impact of COVID-19 on Korea’s GVC with the NSP countries has not been quantitatively studied. This paper emphasizes that the NSP should be pursued based on the results of quantitative analysis. In addition, the research methodology of this paper can be used for other GVC research with relevant modifications.

Importance of Market Structures in the CGE Modeling : An Application to the Asia - based FTA

(Cheong In Kyo) 한양대학교 경제연구소 1997 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.2 No.1

Screening method for the detection of methamphetamine in hair using fluorescence polarization immunoassay.

Cheong, Jae Chul,Suh, SungIll,Ko, Beom Jun,Lee, Jae Il,Kim, Jin Young,Suh, Yong Jun,In, Moon Kyo Preston Publications 2013 Journal of analytical toxicology Vol.37 No.4

<P>A hair screening method has been developed for the detection of methamphetamine using an immunoassay analyzer (AxSYM) with a fluorescence polarization immunoassay (FPIA) technique. The method consisted of washing, cutting and digesting a hair sample (5 mg) with an enzymatic digestion solution. The digested hair sample was centrifuged, and then an aliquot of the supernatant was used to conduct the screening. The results obtained from FPIA, in most cases, showed concentrations above 70.0 ng/mL of methamphetamine for hair samples that contained 0.5 ng/mg of methamphetamine, determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The percent sensitivity, defined as the true positive rate of screened and confirmed results, and the percent specificity, defined as the true negative rate of screened and confirmed results, of the FPIA screening method were 100.0 and 96.7% (false positive rate of 3.3%), respectively, when the threshold level for FPIA analysis was set at 70.0 ng/mL (n = 60).The correlation coefficient (r) for the linear relationship between FPIA and GC-MS results was 0.91 in real hair samples. The recommended amount of hair sample was found to be 5.0 mg for FPIA screening analysis when the concentration of methamphetamine in hair samples determined by GC-MS was found to be more than 0.5 ng/mg. The method developed in this study was reliable and effective for the screening of methamphetamine in routine hair analysis.</P>

SUSTAINABLE GROUPING OF ECONOMIES FOR A PACIFIC RIM TRADING BLOC(JEL Classification : F15 , D58 , C63)

CHEONG, IN KYO 한국경제학회 1998 The Korean Economic Review Vol.14 No.1