북한 군사력의 해부 : 위협의 정도와 수준-남북 군사력 균형 평가를 중심으로 Assessment on the Degree and Level of the Threat by Measuring the Balance of Military Capabilities between South and North Korea

이영호 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.3

The fall of communism and collapse of the cold war regime in the international arena, it seems, cannot keep North Korea from concentrating all her efforts building the legitimacy of Kim Jung-il' s political succession by maintaining and strengthening the monolithic ideological thought of Kim Il-sung. Despite of the strained national economy having created more difficulties for regime's preservation, North Korea has been domestically indulged herself into building the cult of personality for Kim Jung-il since the death of Kim Il-sung last year: needs for the demonstration of his abilities as a "general" and "Highest Commander-In-Chief of the North Korean Peoples Armed Forces(NKPA) seems to have made the Border Guards be under the direct control of defense ministry. NKP A now is consisted of more than one million personnel in active service: armed with more than 3,800 tanks, 10,000 artillery pieces, 850 combat aircrafts and 460 various naval combatants: which has been continuously reinforced by the deployment of newly built tanks, amphibious combat vehicles, APCs, hovercrafts, long range artillery pieces at the front, the introduction of newly tested ballastic missiles and forward redeployment of combat aircrafts; all of which will eventually enhance the NKPA's capabilities for surprise attack. Since an assessment of balance between two rivals' military capabilities is perhaps more important in judging the probability of a war than any other factor because national capabilities (including military capabilities) are relatively more static or constant than national intension (including political intension) when you presume war is functional outcome of both variables, national capabilities and intension, this paper will mainly focus on quantified comparison of forces' capabilities to provide general outline on the degree and level of North Korean military threat to South. And if the dictum, "war is an extension or a tool of politics", is an acceptable hypothesis, some what reversed hypothesis "military capabilities will set the boundary of political intension" is perhaps acceptable one since national capabilities will often decisively work in setting the political goals and means. If so, then, the correct analysis and assessment of military balance between two Koreas can provide significant symptoms for the boundaries of North Korea's political intension in near future. It is goes without saying that even the fundamental problems inherited in he quantified analysis of military capabilities using such method as ADE(Armor Division Equivalent) Scoring, which this paper applies, is remained unsolvable.: however. this is the only available method that, in a current warfare, quality factor of weapons system and intangible factors of military capabilities such as C3I, which appear to be very important at the contemporary war such as Gulf War, can be counted. In case of ground forces' capabilities, NKPA is armed partly with some obsolete weapons system of PRC and Soviet Union and in large part with self produced weapons system of relatively high quality. The total ADE scores of NKPA's ground forces is about 1.4~1.8 times of those of ground forces of Republic of Korea Armed Forces (ROKA). More significant is that the force structure of NKPA's ground forces is formed to exercise its combat fighting capability more effectively than ROKA's ground forces: Of its total ADE scores, 65.7% are composed with major attack weapons system which is consisted of fire powers and maneuver capabilities at the ratio of two to one. In comparisons with this, of total ADE scores of the ROKA's ground forces, 60% are composed with major attack weapons system and 40% with foot soldiers, 5% higher than that of NKPA's. In addition, NKPA already reorganized its Spear Head Units for infiltration and break-through operations into formidable numbers of brigades. after having had field maneuver tests of brigade's size units that is optimally operational under condition of the Korean terrains and its main forces with large scale mechanized units which can. perhaps. be used at the maneuver operations at the step of both exploit and pursuit after the break-through. Accounting all of these. it can be said that NKP A may be capable of exercising its own ''britz- krieg". perhaps North Korean's prototype of OMG against South Korea. In case of naval capabilities. the ratio of ship fire power index between North and South is about 100 to 90 which can be said almost even. The capabilities of component operations. however. differ each other. The ship fire power index of NKPN in missile boat and submarine out-numbers ROKN as much as 4 times. while in case of destroyer and patrol craft, ROKN out-numbers the NKPN from 2.5 to 5 times. NKPN is so structured withlarge numbers of small combatants as to exercise ''hit and run" operations around coastal area; and in the fields of short distance surprise landing, infiltration support. sea lane harassment, mine laying and coastal defense NKPN can probably perform the operations more effectively than ROKN; except for the submarine attack. as the high-sea operation capabilities are very limited. KKPN' s main fleet perhaps cannot but avoid direct confrontation against South Korean Fleet at high sea. As for ROKN have more capabilities of high sea operations than NKPN, it is expected for ROKN to conduct relatively independent naval operation with more effectiveness than KKPN in the areas of anti-submarine warfare. some what large scale landing support. and cutting the line of communications on the sea. As for the case of air forces capabilities. even if fire power index of Air force of North Korean Peoples Armed Forces(NKPAF) appears to be about 10% to 20% higher than that of Air Force of ROK Armed Forces (ROKAF). disparity of capabilities between two Korea's air forces may be neglect able when technologically advanced electronic equipments and higher skill of pilots of ROKAF were considered. And in case of the force structure, NKPAF is consisted by 44% of its total fire power index with obsolete type of aircrafts, MIG-17/19 in contrast to ROKAF of which total fire power index only 31% is consisted by the relatively obsolete type of aircraft F-5C/D. This well indicates ROKAF is more modernized than its rival. Considering the disadvantages posed by the inferior qualities of weapons system and pilots' skills of NKPAF as well as the advantages of absolute superiority in the quantities of aircrafts, NKPAF may believe that in case of war, to maximize the effects of initial surprise attack is the only way to preserve the parity, if not superiority, of air power. And to achieve this goal. NKPAF can, most likely, utilize those obsolete aircrafts as the suicidal commando forces infiltrating deep into South to strike strategic targets such as communication posts, air fields or aircrafts at lots and perform "dog-fighting" with large scales of wings to disrupt the effectiveness of electronics. Then, as for the ROKAF, early warning capabilities and counter measures to the initial surprise attack as well as break-down of "dog-fighting" will be the key for achievement of air superiority at the initial stage of war. Of other North Korean military capabilities, not-neglectable are both the chemical warfare and the infiltration capabilities. Since NKPA has formidable amounts(1.000 tons to 3,000tons) of all kinds chemical agent in stock. but also large numbers of delivery means such as IL-28 bombers, 150mm/170mm artillery pieces, FROG-5/7 and SCUD missiles, it is highly possible that NKPA in case of war will launch a chemical warfare in order to make a break-through at front or to achieve a strategic goal by direct attack on Seoul. capital city with high density of population. In contrast to North Korean capabilities of chemical warfare, South Korea's protective capabilities remains at the very rudimentary level. The individual protective equipment at combat field under CBR warfare is proved with very limited sustainability of combat fighting and group protection and regional counteraction system for the high densely populated area is turned out to be in need of urgent improvement. NKPA is accounted of its capabilities to infiltrate all at once about 3 brigades by aireal and naval means and 6 to 7 brigades through ground routes. These units, after having infiltrated just into ROKA's front or/and deep into South, can work decisively, it is believed, for securing the high speedy maneuver of the main attack forces, NKPA's ground forces by opening up the routes for their maneuver and by checking free advance of ROKA's combat reserves through the assault or occupation of strategic position of operation. ROKA's counter-infiltration operations which in general is due to rely on much to the reserve forces's operations, seems mainly to focus on counter measures against the operation of the infiltrated troops within South Korean regions instead on early detection and strike on the way of initial infiltration movement. Of various fields of military capabilities, advantageous area for South Korea includes such intangible factors as logistics, C3I. training and exercises, morale which are often regarded as the multiplier for the capabilities. It can be said that NKPA is outstripped to ROKA in the fields of logistics, communications. and combat intelligence, even to it in the fields of discipline and commanding ability, but still inanimate relatively to ROKA in the fields of morale and training and exercises. It can be presumed that in field of the intangible capabilities as the multiplier, ROKA will be weighted 20% to 30% more than its rival. The net assessment, relied on static analysis of the military balance between South and North Korea shows that ROKA's capabilities is about 73% to 75% of NKPA's and will reach to 85% to 87% of it when we weight ROKA 20% to 30% more with the multiplier of intangible factors. Even if war is an extension of politics and the causes of war vary in accordance with the political purposes, it also can be said that no rational politics of a nation can make a reckless war without close and enough accounts in advance on the winning. So, even though static analysis provides presumption of no expectation for winning to both South and North, still, additionally necessary is the dynamic analysis which enables the close examination on the level and contents of the threat and the war probabilities through a realistic analysis of war game models or war simulations under realistic combat condition and war situation presumed from both rivals' strategies, tactics, military postures, terrain and even climate conditions. Dynamic analysis of the South and North Korean military capabilities is believed to be conducted by the experts within the military services and the outcomes of it is presumed to be used for complement for OP 5027, the defense plan for ROK and eventually applied for force improvement plans. Since it needs more spaces for details of outcomes of any war game. this paper provides. instead of detailed dynamic analysis. only the fundamental frame-work of scenarios for North Korea's offense and its expected outcomes. The NKPA is known to deploy about % of its total ground forces southward Pyongyang-Wonsan line. This posture can be considered as flexible one for both offensive and defensive operation with the ratio of front to reserve forces at 2:1 rather than it is usually understood as one of offensive only. ADE scores of the front units of both side ground forces maintain almost parity in general. although slightly different in accordance with each approach: therefore. in the case of a usual attrition warfare. it might be difficult for anyone side. either South or North. to make any strategically significant break-through of the Front within a short time. There is not, however. little possibility for NKPA to make an unexpected break through of the Front. if not by an unexpected force concentration. by a successful surpTIse attack invaliding early warning system of ROKA (and its allied forces, U.S. Armed Forces), making a significant break-through with the help of the chemical offensive operations and/or large scale infiltration operations followed by the maneuver operations of large scale mechanized units consisting the maneuver group for the exploitation and pursuit before the intersections of the ROKA's reserve forces either directly to occupy the capital city, Seoul or to closely encircle it. Yet. it seems that this doesn't impair much the deterrent provided by the south Korean military capabilities when the available counter measures are considered. Although not with- standing to account other deterrent factors such as allied force capabilities, especially U.S. force's C31 and war-time reinforcements, it can be insisted that two Koreas maintain so highly dense military forces as to enable the mutual deterrence even if current military capabilities is in favor of the North at the Hone) to 0.75 ratio over the South. If both two Koreas continue to improve their military capabilities during next half decade in a manner similar to those they did past decade. south Korea may be hardly able to gain the parity of military capabilities with north before the beginning of the 21'st Century. This slow improve- ment of the disparity of military capabilities between two Koreas seems rather not to impair much the military stability on the Korean peninsular. than to increment the high density of forces confronting each other. Since the confrontation between two high strengths maintains to create a strained condition against each other, it is presumable that the pendulum of the relations between south and North Korea will keep swinging between the high military tension and the political rapprochement and the dangerousness of a war out-break will remain as in the past if not incremental. out of the mutual misunderstandings,miscalculations on the opponent's capabilities or unexpected incidents.

학문과 생활24:이대 이영호 교수

이영호 북한연구소 1977 北韓 Vol.- No.61

동학농민전쟁부터 3ㆍ1운동까지, 종교계의 활동으로 본 사회ㆍ사상변화의 대서사 : 이영호, 『동학ㆍ천도교와 기독교의 갈등과 연대, 1893-1919』(푸른역사, 2020)

이영호 역사문제연구소 2021 역사문제연구 Vol.25 No.1

콩 양질, 고단백 품종 육성방향

이영호,박래경,김석동,홍은희,황영현,정길웅 한국콩연구회 1989 韓國콩硏究會誌 Vol.6 No.1

人類가 栽培하는 作物中에서 콩 만큼 용도가 다양한 작물이 없고 또한 단위 면적당 가장 蛋白質 生産을 많이 하는 作物이라고 볼 때, 앞으로 安定的인 蛋白質 供拾을 爲해서는 콩이라는 作物을 다시 認識하면서 良質·高蛋白 콩 新品種 育成에 더 많은 努力이 경주되어야 할 때라고 보아 그 間 이 부분에 대한 연구내용을 중심으로 정리한 바, 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 1. 遺傳資源의 지속적인 수집·분류·특성조사 및 보관을 해야 되고, 특허 高蛋白 新品種 育成에 야생콩의 이용에 관심을 두어야 한다. 2. 雜種集團에서 多收性에 촛점 맞추면서 단위면 적당 단백질 生産을 높이는 方向으로 하되, 高蛋白系統을 2次 選拔對象으로 삼는다. 3. 組合에 따라서는 蛋白質 含量도 높고 收良도 높은 경우가 있을 뿐 아니라, 蛋白質 含量의 遺傳力도 比較的 높고 遺傳獲得量도 크다. 4. 11S 蛋白質內에 含硫黃아미노산인 Methionine의 함량이 높아 Germplasm 中에서 11S 蛋白質이 높은 品種을 交配 母本으로 이용하고, 系統選拔時 11S/7S의 비율이 높은 것을 選拔할 수 있도록 한다.

컴퓨터 기반 문제해결력에 영향을 미치는 학생 및 학교 수준의 ICT 요인 : 한국과 일본을 중심으로

이영호,구덕회,임효진 한국정보교육학회 2017 정보교육학회논문지 Vol.21 No.4

본 연구의 목적은 PISA(Programme for International Student Assessment) 2012 결과에 나타난 학생 및 학교수준의 ICT 요인이 컴퓨터 기반 문제해결력에 미치는 영향력을 알아보면서, 추가적으로 한국과 일본의 차이를 비교, 분석하는 데 있다. PISA 2012의 컴퓨터 기반 문제해결력 평가에는 한국에서는 156개 학교의 5,033명의 학생이, 일본에서는 191개 학교의 6,351명의 학생이 참여하였다. 연구방법으로는 2수준 위계선형모형(HLM)을 사용하여 자료분석을 실시하였다. 두 국가의 공통점으로는 학생들이 컴퓨터와 인터넷에 처음 접한 시기가 빠를수록, 사회경제적배경이 높을수록, 개방성이 높을수록 문제해결력 점수가 높아졌으며, 가정이나 학교에서 제공하는 ICT 기기에 대한 접근성은 문제해결력에 부적인 영향을 미쳤다. 국가 간의 차이점으로는 ICT의 사용 목적이나 태도, 교사-학생관계, 창의적 방과후 활동의 유무 등이 문제해결력에 미치는 효과가 다르게 나타났다. The purpose of this study is to explore the differences between Korea and Japan in terms of the effects of student- and school-level ICT-related factors on computer-based problem solving ability in PISA 2012 achievement results. PISA 2012's computer-based problem solving assessment included 5,033 students from 156 schools in Korea and 6,351 students from 191 schools in Japan. A 2-level hierarchical linear model (HLM) was employed to analyze data. Both of Korean and Japanese students, students with the earlier use of computer and the Internet, higher socioeconomic background and higher openness to problem reported better problem solving scores than their counterparts. Also, accessibility to ICT equipment provided by home or school was found to be a negative effect on problem solving in both countries. Differences in the effects of purposes and attitudes for ICT use, teacher-student relationship, and creative out-of-school activities on problem solving ability were found between two countries.

포트폴리오 투자관점에서의 보증금 투자비중에 관한 연구 - 서울 상가 임대시장을 중심으로 -

이영호,류현욱 국제부동산정책학회 2014 토지와건물 Vol.29 No.-

A profit on operating security deposit in the real estate rental market involves a considerable controversy because of the interest-seeking hypothesis and the leverage effect hypothesis. Also the security deposit is operated by diversified investment such as interest rates and the leveraged finance from a different perspective. The purpose of this study is to attempt to test the relationship between the amounts of security deposit and the expected price rise rate in order to see if the lessor is utilizing the security deposit for leverage purpose. Empirical analysis show that it can not find the explicit evidence that the security deposit is utilized for leverage purpose in the retail rental market. Consequently the characteristics of security deposit are explained by risk premium such as the non-payment of monthly rent and the tenant's credit.

AISI 303 오-스테나이트계 스테인레스강의 고온연성거동

칼디룬딘,이영호 忠南大學校 産業技術硏究所 1987 산업기술연구논문집 Vol.2 No.2

오-스테나이트계 스테인레스강에 대한 용접은 용접재료의 개발과 더불어 각종 산업계에 널리 이용되고 있으며 AISI 303 오-스테나이트계 스테인레스강등은 free machining재로서 널리 응용되고 있다. 그러나 이 303계는 피삭성, 절삭성, 칩형성개선을 위한 특수원소(Se, S등)의 첨가때문에 용접성에 문제점을 제기하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 AISI 303을 중심으로 AISI 304, 316 NG 및 347 NG계의 오-스테나이트계 스테인레스강에 관하여 조사하였다. 고온연성평가는 Gleeble Simulator에 이하여 재료와 방향성에 따라 검토하였으며 그 결과 모든 재료는 압연방향을 종방향으로 시험하였을때는 거의 유사한 고온연성을 나타내었으나 횡방향으로 시험하였을때는 종방향에 비하여 연성저하를 나타내었다. 이와같은 고온연성은 후속연구에서 검토될 고온균열 감수성(용접성)과 밀접한 관련성에 의하여 용접부의 특성을 평가할 수 있다.

초중등학생 대상 알고리즘 교육을 위한 분류체계 모형 설계

이영호,구덕회 한국정보교육학회 2017 정보교육학회논문지 Vol.21 No.3

본 연구의 목적은 초중등학생 대상 알고리즘 교육을 위한 알고리즘 분류체계를 제안하는 것이다. 연구자는 알 고리즘의 구성요소를 정의하고, 분석합성식 방법으로 알고리즘 분류체계를 표현하였다. 연구의 내용은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 분류의 목적과 분류의 종류에 대한 이론적인 탐색을 실시하였다. 둘째, 기존에 제안된 알고리즘 내용에 대한 분류체계의 내용과 그 한계에 대해 살펴보았다. 이와 더불어 알고리즘 교육 연구에서 사용되었던 알고리즘 교육 내용 및 선정 기준에 대해 살펴보았다. 셋째, 알고리즘의 분류를 위해 알고리즘 구성요소를 NRC에서 제시 한 핵심 아이디어와 관통 개념을 사용하여 재정의하였다. 그리고 알고리즘 관통 개념을 디자인 구조와 자료구조 로 세분화하여 그 내용을 제시하였으며, 이 내용을 분석합성식 분류체계를 사용하여 표현하였다. 마지막으로 전 문가 집단의 검토를 통해 제안한 내용에 대한 타당도를 검증하였다. 알고리즘 분류체계에 대한 연구는 알고리즘 교육에 있어 내용 선정 및 교육 방법에 많은 시사점을 제공할 것으로 기대한다. The purpose of this study is to propose algorithm classification system for algorithm education for Elementary and Secondary Students. We defines the components of the algorithm and expresses the algorithm classification system by the analysis synthesis method. The contents of the study are as follows. First, we conducted a theoretical search on the classification purpose and classification. Second, the contents and limitations of the classification system for the proposed algorithm contents were examined. In addition, we examined the contents and selection criteria of algorithms used in algorithm education research. Third, the algorithm components were redefined using the core idea and crosscutting concept proposed by the NRC. And the crosscutting concept of algorithm is subdivided into algorithm data structure and algorithm design strategy, and its contents are presented using analytic synthesis classification scheme. Finally, the validity of the proposed contents was verified by the review of the expert group. It is expected that the study on the algorithm classification system will provide many implications for the contents selection and training method in the algorithm education.

교류분석(TA) 집단프로그램이 아동양육시설 아동·청소년의 탄력성에 미치는 효과

이영호,김주희 한국학교사회복지학회 2014 학교사회복지 Vol.- No.27

This study aimed to operate transactional analysis group program to strengthen resilience to find out practical method of social welfare to help the youth in protective institution by improving their non-activated potential ability and characteristics to face their crisis and difficulties positively. Therefore, this study tried to verify the effectiveness of transactional analysis group program by analyzing improvement of the protective factors that strengthen resilience including responsibility, internal control, planning, self-competency, and interpersonal relationship skill as well as reducing the risk factors that weaken resilience including reduction in impression, impulse, and aggressive tendency. This study formed the experiment group (13 subjects) and control group (13 subjects) from the youth in protective institutions in Changwon, Masan, Kimhae, and Jinhae. Ten sessions of transactional analysis group program were processed once or twice a week for two hours each from June 10 to September 10, 2012 to strengthen resilience. Group program using transactional analysis theory was independent variable and pre and post examination of resilience measured by self-reporting method was dependent variable in comparing the experiment and control group. To supplement the limitation of quantitative analysis of small number of samples, this study used the individual thought papers of each participant and the thought papers of the related personnel in the institutions to conduct qualitative analysis. 본 연구는 아동양육시설 아동․청소년들의 탄력성을 강화시키는 보호요소의 향상과 탄력성을 저해하는 위험요소의 감소를 돕기 위한 TA집단프로그램의 적용과정을 제시하고 효과성을 분석하였다. 프로그램의 내용은 교류분석이론의 긍정적 스트로크, 자아상태 활성화, 교류패턴 분석을 활용하여 낮은 책임감, 내적통제, 계획성, 유능감, 대인관계기술을 향상시키고 우울 및 충동·공격성향을 감소시키는 것에 초점을 두었다. 경남 마산, 김해, 진해, 창원 지역의 아동양육시설에서 보호를 받고 있는 중·고등학교학생 13명을 실험집단과 비교집단으로 각각 무선 배정하였다. 실험집단은 주 1회, 매회기마다 2시간씩 총 10회기(2012년 6. 10~9. 10)동안 TA집단프로그램을 실시하였다. 프로그램의 효과성은 동일집단에 대해서는 Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test로, 실험·비교집단에 대해서는 Mann-Whitney U Test로 분석하였다. 탄력성 척도에 대한 실험 전·후의 분석결과에서 실험집단은 탄력성의 보호요소인 계획성, 유능감, 대인관계기술에서 유의미한 차이가 나타났고 비교집단은 유의미한 차이가 나타나지 않았다. 또한 위험요소인 우울성향, 충동·공격성향에서도 실험집단은 유의미한 차이가 나타났지만 비교집단은 유의미한 차이가 나타나지 않았다. 이러한 결과를 통해 TA집단프로그램은 아동양육시설 아동·청소년을 대상으로 하는 탄력성 강화 프로그램으로 효과적인 프로그램임을 확인할 수 있었다.

정보통신 신규서비스 개발방법 RBOCs의 사례연구

이영호 한국통신학회 1997 한국통신학회 워크샵 Vol.- No.-