코퓰라를 이용한 강수의 패턴 분석과 강수 보험의 가격 결정

최창희,이항석,주효찬,Choi, Changhui,Lee, Hangsuck,Ju, Hyo Chan 한국데이터정보과학회 2013 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.24 No.3

This paper proposes analyzing monthly rainfall patterns using copula and pricing related rainfall insurance using it. We analyze 30-year monthly precipitation data for 9 Korean cities between June and September using copula showing so that it can effectively generate realistic monthly rainfall patterns. In addition, we show that our copula rainfall models can be used in pricing various kinds of rainfall insurances effectively.

코로나19가 2020년 사망자 수에 미친 영향 분석

최창희(Changhui Choi),이승준(Seungjoon Lee) 한국데이터정보과학회 2022 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.33 No.3

본 연구는 지연회귀를 이용하여 코로나19가 발생하지 않았을 경우를 가정한 2020년 사망자 수를 추정하고 이를 2020년의 실제 사망자 수와 비교하여 코로나19가 사망자 수에 미친 영향을 추정하였다. 실험 결과 코호트별 추정 및 사인별 추정에서 각각 2,427명과 2,634명의 초과사망 (코로나19가 없는 경우에 비하여 증가한 사망자 수)이 발생하였다. 사인 별 추정 결과에서 상해·중독·화상(-2,212)과 호흡기질환 (-3,599)의 경우 음의 초과사망자 수 (코로나19가 없는 경우보다 감소)가 관찰되었다. 코호트 별 추정 결과에서는 50대 이하 남성 초과사망자 수가 -1,969명인데 비해, 60대 이상 여성 초과사망자 수가 4,116명 (99% 예측 구간 초과) 60대 이상 여성의 사망이 코로나19가 일어나지 않은 경우를 가정한 사망자 수보다 크게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. This research estimates the impact of COVID-19 on the deaths of year 2020 by comparing the estimated number of deaths that are produced without considering the impact of COVID-19 using a lagged-regression method and the actual number of deaths. According to the test results, 2,427 and 2,634 excess deaths (the number of deaths that exceeds the anticipated number of deaths without considering the impact of COVID-19) were estimated from the cohorts data sets and cause-of-death data sets, respectively, which exceed statistically significant levels. In cause-of-death data analysis, the excess deaths of injuries, poisoning and fire burns were -2,427 and the excess deaths of respiratory disease were -2,624. In the analysis of cohort data sets, the excess deaths of male under 60 were -1,969 whereas the excess deaths of female over 60 were +4,116, which is a quite significant number.

세미데피니트 프로그래밍 조건 완화를 이용한 효과적인 재보험 포트폴리오 구성

최창희 ( Changhui Choi ) 한국금융공학회 2015 금융공학연구 Vol.14 No.2

Recently the importance of managing insurance risks via efficient management of reinsurance portfolio has grown dramatically for insurance companies due the strengthening of RBC and the expected enforcement of IFRS4-Phase2. This paper poses the insurer``s problem that cedes a fixed amount of its insurance risk to a reinsurer from out of possible insurance products`` premiums while minimizing the linear combination of the reinsurance premium payment and the variance of the retained insurance risks as a mathematical problem and presents an efficient method that generates near-optimal solutions for this problem using the semi-definite programming relaxation.

정책성농업보험의 WTO 농업협정 정합성 분석 및 운영 방안

최창희 ( Changhui Choi ) 보험연구원 2024 보험금융연구 Vol.35 No.2

This study was conducted to examine whether there is room for improvement in policy-based agricultural insurance programs after the Korean government's declaration of a developed-country status in the WTO agricultural sector. To this end, this paper examined whether policy-based agricultural insurance programs of Korea and the U.S. comply with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. This paper discovered that some modi operandi of two countries' policy-based agricultural insurance programs do not comply with certain guidelines of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Yet this non-compliance would not likely to raise any issues due to little trade distortion. However, this paper discovered that there are missing items in Korea's WTO subsidy report such as the government's financial support for policy-based agricultural insurance and natural disaster recovery. This paper recommends that these items need to be added to the WTO subsidy report in the future. To this end, it is necessary to establish a subsidy management system for policy-based agricultural insurance and strengthen the surveillance of the National Assembly. Recently, the US government is considering reducing subsidies for policy-based agricultural insurance in order to reduce government spending. This would make a good reference for the Korean government, which should reduce subsidies for policy-based agricultural insurance in the future.

우리나라 공적 무역보험의 국제 무역협정 정합성 평가와 시사점

최창희 ( Changhui Choi ) 한국보험학회 2019 보험학회지 Vol.120 No.-

Some governments provide subsidies to exporters indirectly via official export credit agencies (ECAs) in the form of a low insurance premium that is inadequate to covers long-term costs and losses. This type of business practice is deemed unfair by international trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and hence prohibited. According to our research, Korea's major export-competitors, such as the US, Japan, and most European countries abide by these agreements. However, Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (KSURE) has maintained a market dominant position while receiving hundreds of billions KRWs from Korean government annually, which have been used in part to cover operating losses. Hence, there exists a significant chance that this operating practice can be considered as a breach of the aforementioned international trade agreements. Furthermore, there is a good chance that Japan's recent request for consultations with Korea concerning the Korean government's possible unfair support for its commercial vessels industry might have been triggered in part by this practice. A breach of international trade agreements can cause disputes between member countries and sometimes leads to a permitted retaliation (usually in the form of tariffs) while damaging the reputation of the breacher. Therefore, Korean government must consider amending its official export credit agency (ECA) management scheme by thoroughly reviewing the possibility of the official ECA's international agreement breaches.

생활습관병 사망률 및 유병률 변화 분석

조용운(Yongwoon Cho),최창희(Changhui Choi) 대한미병의학회 2020 대한미병의학회지 Vol.1 No.1

Objectives The life expectancy is extending in South Korea, the healthy life expectancy, however, is shortening. This study examined where this phenomena happened. Methods This study firstly produced the mortality rate of lifestyle diseases from the 1998-2017 death certificate data of National Statistical Office. This study secondly produced the prevalence of main lifestyle diseases such as essential hypertension, dyslipidemia, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, diabetes mellitus over the age of 40 from Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. Results The mortality rate of lifestyle diseases is rapidly decreasing more than the total mortality rate. But the prevalence is rapidly increasing. Conclusions Findings suggest that preventive health services such as health management services for people with metabolic syndrome should be provided to extend healthy life expectancy.

날씨가 기업 매출에 미치는 영향과 날씨 마케팅 예산의 최적 할당에 관한 연구

주경희(Kyounghee Chu),김소연(Soyeon Kim),최창희(Changhui Choi) 한국경영과학회 2013 한국경영과학회지 Vol.38 No.1

Weather is an influential factor to sales of companies. There have been growing attempts with which companies apply weather to developing their strategic marketing plans. By executing weather marketing activities, companies minimize risks (or negative impacts) of weather to their business and increase sales revenues. In spite of managerial importance of weather management, there are scarce empirical studies that comprehensively investigate its impact and present an efficient method that optimally allocates marketing budget. Our research was conducted in two parts. In the first part we investigated influences of weather on sales based on real-world dally sales data. We specifically focused on the contextual factors that were less focused in the weather related research. In the second part, we propose an optimization model that can be utilized to efficiently allocate weather marketing budget across various regions (or branches) and show how it can be applied to real industry cases. The results of our study are as follow. Study 1 investigated the impact of weather on sales using store sales data of a family restaurant company and an outdoor fashion company. Results represented that the impacts of weather are context-dependent. The impact of weather on store sales varies across their regional and location characteristics when it rains. Based on the results derived from Study 1, Study 2 proposes a method on how optimally companies allocate their weather marketing budgets across each region.