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관광 수요예측에러에 대한 시계열 모델 평가 : 제주관광객 Jeju Tourist
최병길 한국관광정책학회 2000 觀光政策學硏究 Vol.6 No.2
This study examined magnitude of forecasting error with domestic tourism demand. Forecasting accuracy can be assessed in various ways. In this article, magnitudes of error for forecasting in tourist arrivals are assessed by 4 different methods, Naive 1, Naive 2, Exponential Smoothing and Arima. The data used are tourist arrivals in Jeju and number of arrivals by tour purposes, group tourist, just married tourist, student tourist, and the other tourist as well as total tourist are analyzed with different statistical method. The results are very different in terms of the characteristics of data. Whether the direction of change error is expectable or not, the magnitude of error for forecasting can be minimized if the appropriate techniques is applied.