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학술발표회논문 : 국제 금 시세 변동 예측 및 주요 경제 지표에 관한 통계분석
김지영 ( Ji Yeong Kim ),강나은 ( Na Eun Kang ),허지석 ( Ji Seok Heo ),채수빈 ( Su Bin Chae ) 성균관대학교 응용통계연구소 2015 통계연구 Vol.19 No.-
금은 세계 어디서나 통용되는 재화로서의 가치를 지닌다. 따라서 금의 가격은 거시적인 경제 지표 뿐 만 아니라, 미시적인 각 국의 다양한 사회, 문화, 정치적 이유, 심지어는 개개인의 심리적인 요인에 의해서 결정되곤 한다. 크게는 유럽 발 경제 위기, 미국의 달러 가치 하락, 작게는 국지적인 국가 간의 군사적 충돌 등 다양한 요인들이 금값에 영향을 끼친다. 우리는 여러 통계적 기법을 사용하여 금 시세를 예측하고, 시세를 결정짓는 경제 지표에 대해서 알아보고자 한다. 본 연구는 2010년부터 2013년까지의 국제 금 시세 및 주요 경제 지표들을 대상으로 하여 분석하였다. ARIMA 와 GARCH 모형을 통해서 국제 금 시세를 예측 해보았고. 다중 회귀분석을 실시하여, 주요 경제 지표가 금 시세에 어떤 영향을 주는지 알아보았다. Gold has the international changeability as an currency. International gold price, thus, is affected not only by the international macro economic indicator, but also by various nations` political, social, cultural circumstances, furthermore, even the local disputes can affect international gold price. With statistical method, this study will predict the international gold price, and correlation between major economic indicators which affects the international gold price. This study`s subject of analysis is international gold price and some major economic indicators from 2010~2013. By using time series analysis, ARIMA and GARCH, predicted the international gold price. By using the multiple regression with major economic indicators, found out the influence of the major economic indicators to the international gold price.
대기오염물질의 산림생태계내 유입과 토양의 화학적 특성 변화
김동엽(Dong Yeob Kim),유정환(Jung Hwan Ryu),채지석(Ji Seok Chae),차순형(Soon Hyung Cha) 한국산림과학회 1996 한국산림과학회지 Vol.85 No.1
Environmental pollution has recently been progressed in the metropolitan and industrial areas of Korea and concerns have been evolved against the chronic effects of the pollution on natural ecosystem. This study was carried out to investigate the environmental pollution impacts on ion input into forest ecosystems and soil environmental changes. Study plots were established at Seoul, Ulsan, Yeochon, and Seosan for pollution sites and at Pyungchang for a non-pollution site. Atmospheric deposition was measured with rain, throughfall, and stem flow samples collected in the forest areas. Soil chemical properties were investigated to compare the pollution impacts on the sites. Precipitation acidity in the metropolitan and industrial areas ranged from pH 4.5 to 5.5, showing the levels lower than pH 5.8 of mountain area. Ion concentrations in the precipitation had increased significantly while passing the crown layer in the metropolitan and industrial areas, showing the increase by 4 times at the maximum. Total ion input in the metropolitan and industrial areas was greater than that in mountain area by approximately 2-3 times. Soil acidification caused by acidic ion input seemed to be greatest at Seoul, showing pH 1 decrease compared to that of Pyungchang. Soil canon contents were relatively high in the metropolitan and industrial areas. Although the canon leaching loss was not apparent, soil acidification process seemed to be continued by acidic ion input. Environmental pollution in the metropolitan and industrial areas exerted changes in ion input into the forest ecosystems and soil conditions. The chronic effects of environmental pollution should be monitored and investigated further to explain the processes of ecosystem change and the impacts on plant growth.