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조택희,이성훈,구영완 한국경제연구학회 2015 Korea and the World Economy Vol.16 No.2
Theoretically, the larger the network a petroleum refinery has, the more conveniently importers are connected to a few exporters. This paper applies network structure to estimate the imports of petroleum-based refinery goods of South Korea using a dataset from 1980 to 2003. Using the H-O model, we found that the network variable is interactive. Although the international trade of petroleum refinery goods by South Korea was not largely explained by the differences in the ratio of countries’ resources, the network structure of these goods rendered H-O theory statistically significant. In addition, the network index had the strongest effects on imports. The decreasing network index implies that petroleum products become normal goods that can be produced in many countries.
조택희 통계청 2005 통계연구 Vol.10 No.2
There is a growing need for region-based macro models that can systematically analyze the present and future of each region’s economy. Since a region-based macro model utilizes all the statistics produced in a certain region, we can identify the problems of regional statistics when designing macro models. The statistical problems that arose in the process of designing the macro model of ChungBuk Province are as follows. First, Keynesian Model of Aggregate Demand cannot be applied to the statistical data of GRDP measured in terms of expenditure due to a lack of time-series analysis. Second, it is difficult to modify the model on a timely and consistent basis because GRDP is measured every two years, not even quarterly. Third, we need more industry-based employment data that considers wages and each region’s characteristics. Fourth, we also need more statistical data of the service sector. Fifth, there needs to be more regional data in the international sector. As a way of producing betterregion-based statistical data, it is suggested that we should establish a system for effective management of the data, ensure quantitative as well as qualitative improvement of the data by accumulating more region-based statistics and expand region-based statistical officesand increase the number of related workforce. 국가균형발전이 지속적으로 추진되고 지자체의 정책수립 자율성이 확대됨에 따라 지역통계에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있다. 지역 거시모형은 지역에서 생산되는 모든 통계자료를 이용하여 만들어지므로 작성과정에서 지역통계가 가지는 문제점을 파악할 수 있다. 충북지역 거시모형작성과정에서 나타난 지역 통계의 문제점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 지출측면에서 파악한 GRDP자료의 시계열 축적이 미흡하여 케인즈의 총수요 모형을 적용할 수 없다. 둘째, GRDP가 2년의 시차를 가질뿐더러 분기별 GRDP는 발표조차 되지 않아 시의성 있고 지속적인 모형수정이 매우 힘들다. 셋째, 고용관련 통계자료 중 임금부분 및 지역 특성을 고려한 산업별 고용자료의 보강이 필요하다. 넷째 서비스업 관련 통계자료의 보강이 시급하다. 다섯째, 대외부문 중 지역관련자료의 보완이 필요하다. 지역 통계의 개선방안으로는 지역통계의 효율적 관리를 위한 시스템 구축이 필요하며 지역관련 조사 통계의 확대를 통해 지역통계의 양적질적제고와 지역통계조직 및 인력을 확충이 필요하다.
경제활동과 지방세의 상호작용에 관한 연구: 충북을 중심으로
조택희 한국지방재정학회 2011 한국지방재정논집 Vol.16 No.2
The study purpose was to explain the association between an economic index and local taxes based upon Social Account Matrix (SAM) specific to Chungbuk province. The economic indexes for Chungbuk province consisted of forty-five economic sectors such as industry, production, private, government, or external sectors. Multiplier matrix was calculated in order to analyze the ripple effect of both an economic index and local taxes to one another. The findings showed that in the industrial sector such as education, public health, gas/electricity, and sewer system, production activities increased local taxes. On the other hand, earned income and capital income presented a similar level of multiplier effects. Overall, a consumption sector had a great impact on the increase of local taxes. It was one out of one-hundred households with the greatest consumer power who generated the highest multiplier effect on local taxes. In addition, expenses of local taxes also influenced some economic sectors. Local tax-expenses had the greatest multiplier effect on public administration industry. In this case, local tax expenses were more likely to influence earned income than capital income. Local tax-expenses had the greatest multiplier effect on household expenses for consumption among deci-income group.