일자리 분포의 변화와 동인에 관한 연구: 1993-2016년

전병유(Cheon Byung You),정세은(Jeong Se eun) 한국경제발전학회 2017 經濟發展硏究 Vol.23 No.2

이 글은 1993-2016년의 기간을 대상으로 한국에서의 일자리 분포의 변화와 그 동인을 분석했다. 일자리 분포 변화를 설명하는 이론들 중에서 기술변화에 따른 직업구성의 변화로 설명하는 수요 중심 이론, 고령화와 고학력화 등 노동 공급 중심 이론, 그리고 노동시장 불평등의 일자리 분포에 미치는 효과에 관한 이론 등을 살펴보고, 우리나라 일자리 분포의 변동에 대해 이러한 가설들을 검증하는 방식으로 분석했다. 분석 결과, 노동 공급 요인보다 노동수요와 노동시장 불평등 요인 가설이 지지되었다. 일자리 분포의 양극화 경향은 1993-2008년 기간 중 나타났으나 2009-2016년간에는 완화되었다. 일자리 양극화 과정에서는 기술로 대체하기 어려운 대인서비스 부문의 저임금일자리 증가가 일자리 양극화에 기여했으며, 2009-2016년 기간 중에도 대인서비스 저임금일자리는 꾸준히 증가하였다. 고령화와 고학력화 요인은 이러한 일자리 분포 변화에 큰 영향을 미치지 못한 반면 노동시장에서의 불평등 심화는 서비스 부문의 저임금일자리를 확대하는 요인으로 작용한 것으로 나타났다.(JEL 분류: J0, J21) This paper analyzes the changes in the distribution of jobs in Korea and their drivers for the period 1993-2016. Among the theories explaining the change of job distribution, the demand-centered theory explaining the change of the occupational composition according to the technological change, the labor supply-oriented theory such as aging and higher education, and the theory of increasing the demand for low-skilled jobs. This paper analyzed the variations in the distribution of jobs in Korea by examining these hypotheses. As a result, demand factor hypothesis and labor market inequality hypothesis were supported rather than labor supply factor. The trend of polarization of job distribution occurred during the period 1993-2008, but it was eased in 2009-2016. The increase of low wage job in the interpersonal service sector, which is difficult to replace with technology contributes to job polarization. The number of low-paying interpersonal services has steadily increased during the period 2009-2016. The increase in labor supply, such as the increase in female labor supply, aging and higher education, did not affect the change of job distribution, while the increase in inequality contributed to the expansion of low-wage service jobs.(JEL Classification: J0, J21)

인공지능(AI)의 고용과 임금 효과

전병유 ( Byung-you Cheon ),정준호 ( Jun-ho Jeong ),장지연 ( Ji-yeun Chang ) 한국경제통상학회 2022 경제연구 Vol.40 No.1

This study focuses on the employment and wage effects of the technological characteristics of AI. Recently, AI job effect research is conducted in a way that links the technical characteristics of AI to ‘task’ or ‘ability’ among job characteristics, or connects ‘patent’ information and job information. This study created AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) by occupation based on the linking metrics between AI applications and ability variables. By applying AIOE to the Employment Insurance DB, we estimated the employment and wage effects of AI in the 2015-2019 region-occupation cell as an observation unit. The result is that AI significantly increases employment, but does not have a significant effect on wage increase. However, the wage premium of AI was significant and large. In particular, it was also found that textrelated AI-apps have a significant (+) effect on employment and wages while image-related AI-apps have not. Estimation was also made by class according to educational background, wage, and knowledge level. AI has a significant (+) effect on employment increase and wage increase in the low-education, low-middle-wage level. However, the wage premium of AI was found to be significant and high in the high educational and high wage level. Currently, AI technology in Korea does not act as a factor in deepening the polarization of the labor market, but since the wage premium effect of AI is clear and large in the high-education-high-wage class, it is judged that AI technology is likely to deepen the polarization of the labor market in the future.

동아시아경제의 성장 , 위기 , 조절의 메커니즘에 관한 비판적 연구

전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국경제학회 1999 經濟學硏究 Vol.47 No.4

동아시아 특히 한국의 고도성장은 정부의 신용할당(금융억압)을 정책수단으로 하고, 대외지향(수출 주도)을 규율의 수단으로 하여 국가 주도의 투자조절(선별적 산업정책)을 통해 고도성장을 달성하는 메커니즘에 기초하였다. 이들이 서로 보완하고 규율하는 긍정적인 상호작용을 보장하는 조절메커니즘은 국가가 시장을 활용하여 자본을 규율하는 것을 기본으로 하였다. 한국경제의 위기는 이러한 기존의 조절 메커니즘이 그 보수적 성격 때문에 내부적으로 해체한 데서 발생한 것으로 이해하고자 하였다. 따라서, 한국경제개혁의 과제는 기존의 소유권 구조의 해체를 통한 새로운 인센티브 시스템의 구축으로 경제의 역동성과 생산력을 제고하며, 다양하고 효율적인 제도의 구축과 일관된 규칙에 근거한 정부정책을 통한 경제의 사전적 조절메커니즘을 강화하는 것을 핵심 과제로 해야 할 것이다. 이 글은 기존의 다양한 경제이론과 동아시아 연구를 비판적으로 검토함으로써 위와 같은 논리구성을 검증하였다.

유연안전성 담론과 전략에 대한 비판적 고찰

전병유 ( Byung You Cheon ) 한국산업노동학회 2016 산업노동연구 Vol.22 No.1

This paper is to critically review flexicurity dialogue and strategy and draw implications for labor market reform and social security system in Korea. While the so-called flexicurity strategy is to overcome hhe flexibilization at the margin, it is criticized for poor empirical evidences of its necessity and effectiveness, priority being given prior consideration for flexibility rather than security in its practice and application, and not being able to overcome labor market dualization. The social exchange of job protection and social protection is necessary for extending social security to unprotected areas of labor force, economic restructuring and technological development. For flexicurity strategy to succeed, however, low level of inequality in labor market, progressive social security system, provention of layoff by firms with moral hazards are necessary, and to establish effective social security system, establishing optimal EPL and considering individual‘s cultural mentality about security, particularly job security are very important. As an implication, Korea should try to reach optimal level of EPL and to establish proper social seucurity system step by step and simultaneously.

업무에서의 컴퓨터 사용의 임금효과

전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국경제학회 2002 經濟學硏究 Vol.50 No.2

This study is about the wage effects of on-the-job computer use. The estimated wage differential associated with computer use in Korea is very similar to that in the U.S. and other countries. The raw long wage differential for computer use in Korea is more than 30%. When individual characteristics are controlled, the wage premium for computer use is 11∼15%. It is 8∼11% when other controls for job and employer characteristics are included. The computer wage premium, particularly, is greater for female, low-aged, and low-wage workers. This implies that the computer-related public training program could be an effective way to reduce the wage differentials between high-skilled and low-skilled workers.

요소소득분배가 가구소득 불평등에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

전병유(Cheon Byung You) 한국경제발전학회 2015 경제발전연구 Vol.21 No.4

This paper is to analyse the effects of factor distribution on household income inequality. The statistical data shows that declines in labor's share have positive correlation with increasing household income inequalities. The effects of factor distribution on income inequality depend on concentration of factor income and the correlation between share of factor income and total income. This paper compares factor income distribution of national account with the one in the household survey, and estimate the effects of changes in factor distribution on household income inequalities. The the share of capital income in household survey is so low, and the relationship between its share and total income has L or U-shaped form. It implies that the effects would not be so large. If the household income is to be decomposed by its income sources for the household with househead holding job, however, the lower capital income's share lead to lower income inequality. This effects will be larger if we could consider the relative lower reporting of capital income and lower representative of those with higher share of capital income in the household income survey.

한국노동패널 특집 : 산업특수적 숙련과 임금

전병유(Byung You Cheon) 한국노동경제학회 2001 노동경제논집 Vol.24 No.1

It is expected that labor mobility and inter-industry labor turnover would rise due to the rapid changes in the industrial structure and legal institutions of layoffs after the 1997 economic crisis in Korea. One aspect of economic costs of labor mobility is demise of accumulated skills of workers. Workers` skills could be decomposed into three parts, general skills, firm-specific skills, and industry-specific skills. Using data from the panal data of Korea Labor Institute(KLIPS), I show that the net return to seniority is markedly reduced once industry-experience are controlled for. The returns to industry-specific experience are relatively high. Particularly, the experience in one-digit industry is more important for the white-collar workers, while the experience in three-digit industry is also important for the blue-collar workers. Therefore, it seems that the economic cost of labor mobility would be diverse between the skills and between the working classes.

글로벌 금융위기에 따른 양극화와 한국의 대응: 이명박 정부의 중도,서민 노선에 대한 비판적 검토와 대안적 사회정책 구상

전병유 ( Byung You Cheon ) 민주사회정책연구원 2010 민주사회와 정책연구 Vol.18 No.-

Inequality, poverty, and the so-called polarization have been deepening even though the economy is now recovering from the worst phase of 2008 financial crisis in Korea. The Korean government and president Lee proposed the middle-of-the-road policy responses to stabilize the livelihoods of the public. The paper will review the nature and contents of the middle-of-the-road policies and their effectiveness in reducing inequality and poverty. It will also examine the specific nature of inequality and poverty in Korea and suggest alternative social policy plan.

한국 노동시장의 양극화에 관한 연구: 중간일자리 및 중간임금계층을 중심으로 / 논평 / 토론

전병유 ( Byung You Cheon ),김종면,이철희,김용진,신관호,정지만 한국금융연구원 2007 한국경제의 분석 Vol.13 No.2

This paper deals with the polarization of the labor market in Korea focusing on the middle-class of the labor market. The job polarization and the wage polarization have been examined between 1993 and 2006. The jobs are rank-ordered in the industry-by-occupation matrixes being indexed by earnings. The middle-level jobs are defined as 25~75% of the rank-ordered jobs in the distribution of individual workers in 1993. The middle-level wage earners are defined as those earning 67~133% of median wage each year. Not only the proportion of middle-level jobs decreased from 50% in 1993 to 41% in 2006, but also that of middle-level wage earners decreased from 47% in 2000 to 43% in 2006, which evidenced the polarization of the labor market in Korea during the last decade. The causes of the job and the wage polarization could be found from the side of labor-demand rather than from the labor-supply side. The major causes would be in the de-industrialization of the economy in terms of jobs. The large scale entries into the labor market of female and youth workforce are not the major causes of the polarization. The policy reponses to these polarizations will be to enhance the quality of low and middle level jobs as well as to generate the middle-level jobs.

기획연구 : 외국의 시간제 근로 ; 네델란드에서의 시간제근로의 현황과 정책

전병유 ( Cheon Byung-You ) 한국산업노동학회 2011 산업노동연구 Vol.17 No.1

This paper is about the pail-time work and related polices in Netherland, which increased the employment rate for the past 30 years with part-time job creation. Netherland has been successful in making part-time ``good`` jobs. There were many factors which contributed to increaing part-time jobs such as market, institution, policies, and industrial relations. There was virtuous cycle between increase in the supply of female labor power and increase in the demand for part-time worker in the labor market. The policies were reinforced which protect part-time workers, introduced the incentive system which was favorable to part-time wokres, guaranteed the right to select working hours to workers. Particularly, the labor market, institutions and policies were created in the midst of the social dialogue. As the polder model has been persisted for almost 30 years, the switch to full-time work or long working-hour model would not be possible. As the paler model is a very specific model based on the Netherland`s own social conditions, it is not easy to copy and transplant in other countries.