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평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song),임형우(Hyeong-Woo Lim),박해수(Hae-Soo Park) 대한전기학회 2012 전기학회논문지 Vol.61 No.12
The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays’ load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year"s day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.