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이웅현 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2013 평화학연구 Vol.14 No.1
본 연구는 ‘아프가니스탄 반군의 계보’의 형성과 전개과정에 관한 분석을 통해서 30년 동안 전쟁과 내전, 강권통치를 경험하였고, 21세기에 들어서 다시 전쟁을 경험하고 있는 아프가니스탄의 현대 정치, 군사구조를 조망하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 현재 아프가니스탄에는 카불을 무대로 하여 현 정권과 과거 반군세력이었던 자들이 ‘총성 없는 전쟁’을 지속하고 있으며, 이들 가운데 일부는 여전히 과거의 ‘무력’을 포기하지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 ‘아프가니스탄 반군’의 기원을 고유의 문화적, 역사적, 지형적 관점에서 살펴보고, 그 전개과정을 아프가니스탄 정치사의 변화과정과 함께 기술하며, 그 토대 위에서 현재의 복잡한 반군 네트워크 상황에 대한 분석을 시도한다. 이를 통해서 아프가니스탄의 반군들을 단순히 정부군에 저항하는 분열세력이나 외국군의 작전에 대항하는 교전단체 정도로 규정할 수는 없으며, 아프가니스탄 고유의 정치세력의 생존방식으로 이해해야 한다는 점을 밝히고, 아프가니스탄의 미래는 국경 밖의 현재적 반군과 카불 안의 잠재적 반군의 역사적 계보, 세력분포, 생존논리 그리고 정치적 요구를 얼마나 잘 이해하고 흡수, 포용할 수 있는가에 달려 있다는 점을 강조한다. During the last three decades, Afghanistan has been under the shadow of war, civil-war, theocratic rule, and war again. This study aims to analyze the process of formation and deployment of the Afghan insurgency and its genealogy, through which one can have a good grip of the character of the present Afghanistan's politico-military structure. At present, on the stage of Kabul, there continues a war without gunfire between the central government and the insurgency-turned political factions, most of which still never disarm themselves voluntarily. This manuscript reviews the origin of the Afghan insurgency from its cultural, historical and geopolitical point of views. It also describes the Afghan insurgency's development in parallel with the alteration of Afghanistan's political history, and finally, analyze the present complicated networks of anti-government guerrillas, warlords and insurgent forces. It emphasizes that the Afghan insurgency groups cannot be simply defined as those which are accidental, splitting and resisting anti-government armed factions, and that they must be understand from the context of Afghanistan's proper mode of survival. And in the concluding remark, it states that Afghanistan's future stability depends on the involving powers' capacity for understanding and accepting the historical lineage, distribution of forces, logics of survival, and political demands of the warring factions, real or potential. Afghan insurgency groups have been always changing themselves. And they will be.
이웅현 충남대학교 사회과학연구소 2015 사회과학연구 Vol.26 No.2
The negative images of Pakistan are mainly originated from the skepticism toward politically unstable Pakistan’s nuclear control capability and suspicion about the shadowy relation between Pakistan and the Afghan insurgency. Though since 1954 through the end of the Cold War, as a peripheral military base Pakistan had taken part in the containment policy toward the Soviet Union, up to the era of the War on Terror it was degraded into ‘an unreliable ally.’ How has ‘an ally of allies’ become a suspicious friend? This article follows the historical traces of Pakistan’s nuclear armament policy and the advent of Pakistani extremists with the recent declassified primary sources of American government’s documents, autobiographies of concerned persons, and the related studies precedent. It analyzed the historical vicissitudes and the characteristics of Pakistani-USA alliance. Is it an abnormal one? Since its independence in 1947, the Pakistani governments, whether civilian or military, have been thinking realistically at least on the utility of alliance. This is a natural attitude of state with the conscience of geopolitics and its own turbulent history. Pakistan’s drift into chaos and turbulence would be explained not by any general theory of alliance but by peering into its historical experience and its geopolitics.