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연구논문 : 전남과 광주의 제조업 및 연관산업간 인과관계 분석
오병기 ( Beung Ky Oh ) 전남대학교 지역개발연구소 2012 지역개발연구 Vol.44 No.1
광주와 전남은 전통적으로 하나의 경제권으로 인식되어 왔으며, 생활권 역시 중첩되어 있다. 많은 노동자와 인력이 양 지역을 오고가며 생산활동에 종사하고 있고, 산업적 연관성도 매우 높을 것으로 추측되고 있다. 따라서 본고는 두 지역의 산업간 인과관계 분석을 통해 어떤 산업이 상호 연결되어 있으며, 얼마만큼 교류가 활발한지 살펴봄으로써 양 지역의 경제적 관련성을 알아보고자 하였다. 분석 결과, 광주와 전남의 제조업 및 그 연관산업 사이에는 상당한 인과관계가 나타나고 있어 두 지역이 하나의 경제권에 가깝다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 특히 전남의 기초소재형 제조업과 광주의 생활관련형 제조업 사이에 양방향의 인과관계가 존재한다는 점을 확인할 수 있었는데, 이것은 두 지역의 제조업 성장이 상호 긍정적 영향을 주고받고 있음을 나타나는 것이다. 따라서 두 지역의 자치단체나 민간기업이 경쟁보다는 상호 협력과 연계를 통해 시너지효과를 창출한다면 광주와 전남의 동반 성장을 이룰 수 있을 것이다. This empirical study examined the relationship between the industries of Jeonnam and Gwangju in South Korea by using VECM. The product of Mining/Quarrying/Manufacturing, Construction, Electricty/Gas/Steam/Water Supply, and Business Services of each region analyzed for the Granger causality. The Unit root tests and the Cointegration tests are performed and then various VAR/VECM are analyzed with Granger causality tests. The results indicated that there are various cointegration relationships and Granger causalities between industries of Jeonnam and Gwangju. Especially, there are feedback causality in primary material industry of Jeonnam and living & industry of Gwanju.
오병기 ( Oh Beung-ky ) 한국지방행정연구원 2021 地方行政硏究 Vol.35 No.4
This study analyzed the causalities among the gap index of local economies and local public finance gap index based on empirical test of long-term time series data. The results of the analysis based on long-term time series data are as follows. First, the regional economic gap index were found to be Granger causes of the local fiscal gap index. Second, there were many causal relationships in both directions in terms of the total amount among the regional economic gap index and the local fiscal gap index. In other words, it was possible to confirm that the gap of regional economy was Granger cause of the gap of local public finance and the gap of local public finance was Granger cause of regional economic gap, but the former causal relationship was stronger. Therefore, in order to narrow the horizontal gap in local public finances, it should be recognized that not only the fiscal adjustment system but also a balanced development policy is necessary.
동태적 패널 분석을 이용한 광역자치단체 투자적 지출의 지역경제 성과 분석
오병기 ( Beung Ky Oh ) 한국지방행정연구원 2012 地方行政硏究 Vol.26 No.1
This empirical study examined the relationship between local economic growth and local government investment expenditures in South Korea using panel data. The dependent variables regarding local economy are the local product of Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing, Mining/Quarrying/Manufacturing, Construction, Services, G.R.D.P. and the local labor(employed persons). The independent variables are four local government investment expenditures, such as the local expenditures of Education/Culture/Tourism, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishery, Industries/ SMEs(Small and Medium enterprises) and Transportation/National Land/Regional Development. Panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests are performed and then various panel VAR/VECM are analyzed with Granger causality tests. The results indicated that there are various cointegration relationships and Granger causalities between local economic growth or local labor and the local expenditures of Agriculture/Forestry/Fishery or Industries/SMEs. But there is no relationship between local economic growth or local labor and the local expenditures of Education/Culture/Tourism or Transportation/National Land/ Regional Development.
오병기 ( Beung Ky Oh ) 한국재정정책학회 2006 財政政策論集 Vol.8 No.2
This paper analyzes and evaluates the efficiency of local public expenditure at provincial level of Korea. In order to do this, this thesis divided the local public expenditure into two types, the total investment expenditure and the total current expenditure. Wagner hypothesis is estimated in order to evaluate the efficiency of local public expenditure by using panel data. The result of analysis said that the growth of local income has been led the increase of total current expenditure(rather than total investment expenditure). Moreover, the total current expenditure is increasing its level simply as time goes by. According to this analysis, it is necessary to reform the local public expenditure system which raises the efficiency and the productivity of the local investment expenditure.
오병기 ( Beung-ky Oh ) 한국재정정책학회 2021 財政政策論集 Vol.23 No.4
This paper proposes a dynamic time series analysis of public expenditures and economic growth in South Korea. In the empirical contrast, this study estimates Vector Error Correction Model for long-run relationship among GDP and public expenditures(national and local) in South Korea for 1967 to 2018. Before estimate the VECM, unit root tests and cointegration tests were performed. The results obtained lead us to significant evidence for public expenditures were response to GDP. Moreover, this paper often found significant results that the responses of GDP to local public expenditures, whereas few cases of the responses of local income(tax) to local public expenditures were found. These findings underline the importance of the sustainable local public finances when economic crisis like the COVID-19 occurs.