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음이항 회귀모형을 이용한 오리농장의 HPAI 발생 요인 분석
안미란,지인배,한귀덕 한국농촌경제연구원 2020 농촌경제 Vol.43 No.4
Duck farms are getting attention as the primary propagation medium of HPAI. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of duck farms’ characteristics on the occurrence of HPAI. We classified duck farms’ characteristics into farm management method, facility status, and location type, and selected 25 variables related to them. We used survey data from 715 duck farms for our research. We conducted an overdispersion test to choose a proper model. The test result showed that a negative binomial regression model was more appropriate than a Poisson regression model. The simulation of the negative binomial regression model showed that the incidence of HPAI was higher in farms with a high gross margin, large breeding scale, and increasedmortality. In farms where shipment and manure vehiclesentered their premises, the occurrence of HPAI increased. In addition, the occurrence of HPAI rose in areas where many farms were clustered and in farms where roads and feed manufactures were closer.
안미란,지인배,배선학,박선일,김상태 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 농촌경제 Vol.42 No.3
The purpose of this study is to identify the risk areas of HPAI in Korea and toanalyze the feasibility of establishing an epidemic prevention zone. The geographicalinfluences of HPAI are compared and analyzed by species, and the riskfactors are analyzed based on classification of farm size, farm density, the characteristicsof farms in the area of protection, geographical features, road networksand geographical characteristics by using the binomial logit model. For farms laying hens, commercial ducks, and parent duck stock, the higher thenumber of marrows, the higher the likelihood of the outbreak, while the lowerthe ratio of broiler chicks, the higher the probability of onset. Among the geographicalfeatures, migratory birds are shown to increase the probability of developingHPAI in all species. However, other variables show different results dependingon poultry species. 본 연구는 우리나라 HPAI 발생의 위험지역을 파악하고 방역지역의 설정에 대한 타당성을 분석하고자 HPAI의 위험요소를 농장의 사육규모, 밀집사육정도, 방역지역 범위내의 농장특성, 지세, 도로망을 비롯한 지리적 특성 등으로 구분하여 이항로짓모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 산란계, 육용오리, 종오리는 사육마릿수가 많을수록 발병확률이 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 육계는 오히려 낮을수록 발병확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 방역지역의 설정 기준에 따른 HPAI 발생확률은 농장 밀집정도와 사육 밀집정도에 따라 축종별, 방역지역대별로 상이하게 나타났다. 지리적 특성 중 철새도래지는 모든 축종에서 HPAI 발병확률을 높이는 것으로 나타으며, 농장과 도로, 사료공장, 도계(압)장, 하천ㆍ호수와의 거리가 미치는 영향은 축종별로 상이한 것으로 나타났다.
안미란,윤성이,지인배 한국농촌경제연구원 2018 농촌경제 Vol.41 No.3
This study examines the theoretical background of the hedonic price model based on consumer utility maximization and producer profit maximization. The objective of this study is to evaluate the characteristics value of cheese and analyze willingness to pay for the cheese characteristics with the hedonic price model. This study provides implications for strengthening the competitiveness of domestic cheese, which can actively respond to changing domestic and international conditions in the dairy market. The price elasticity of the packaged unit has a relatively large impact on consumers' willingness to pay. The WTP for non-antibiotic and organic cheese is higher than the non-certified cheese. Domestic brands have a lower price premium than imported brands. Also, America's crude cheese is the cheapest, followed by Oceania and the EU, and the preference for natural cheese is higher than processed cheese. In addition, it is estimated that cooking cheese has a lower price premium than ordinary cheese.
안미란,정도연,홍선표,송근섭,김영수,Ahn, Mi-Ran,Jeong, Do-Youn,Hong, Sun-Pyo,Song, Geun-Seoup,Kim, Young-Soo 한국응용생명화학회 2003 한국농화학회지 Vol.46 No.3
The traditional kochujang supplemented with mushrooms (Pleurotus ostreatus and Lentinus edodes) was prepared, and changes in quality characteristics during fermentation at ambient temperature were investigated. The moisture content of kochujang increased by addition of mushroom. The titratable acidity of mushroom-added kochujang was gradually increased during fermentation. Ethanol contents of mushroom-added kochujang decreased with the addition of oyster mushroom, but increased with the addition of oak mushroom. The amino-nitrogen contents increased gradually during fermentation, resulting in significantly higher contents of 9% mushroom-added kochujang than others. The a value of kochujang decreased greatly during fermentation, but L, a and b values showed significantly higher than the control. The growth of bacteria in kochujang was delayed by the addition of mushrooms. Bacterial and yeast counts at the end of fermentation were not influenced by the addition of mushrooms. Sensory evaluation test revealed that color and flavour of kochujang were improved by the addition of mushrooms, and higher score was obtained from the addition of oyster mushroom compared to oak mushroom.
학문 목적의 한국어 듣기 평가- 대학 지원자의 학업능력평가를 중심으로-
안미란 이중언어학회 2007 이중언어학 Vol.34 No.-
Ahn Miran. 2007. 6. 30. Assessing Academic Listening. Bilingual Research 34. 247-270. The number of the students with a mother tongue other than Korean are rapidly increasing at the universities throughout Korea. They can only be successful students, if they achieve a certain proficiency of Korean before they enter the university education. For this purpose, universities are providing pre-study language courses, and some are administering Korean proficiency tests which the candidates have to pass before they can start their studies. In this paper topics related to the assessment of the international applicants’ proficiency level of Korean will be discussed. The “Assessment for study competence in Korean”, which is being administered since 2005, will be presented. The results of the last exams showed that clearer exam specifications are needed and they must be understood unambiguously by the item writers. To solve this problem, I will base the test development upon the proficiency scales of the Common European Framework. (Paichai University)
안미란,최정순 국제한국어교육학회 2007 한국어 교육 Vol.18 No.1
No teaching is possible without clearly defined learning goals. The learning goal for a specific purpose language course can be called "specific purpose language competence", which is by definition a partial and weighted proficiency. The aim of this paper is to find out how this competence can be described. We will show that although there exists some general purpose proficiency scales, these are not suitable for a description of a specific purpose language competence. We will therefore suggest a clear distinction between proficiency scales and level descriptions and then demonstrate a procedure to formulate level descriptions based on analytic proficiency scales. (Paichai University)
공간자기상관을 고려한 HPAI 확산요인과 방역범위 분석
안미란,한귀덕,지인배 한국식품유통학회 2020 한국식품유통학회 학술대회 Vol.- No.하계
본 연구는 HPAI 발생의 공간특성을 고려한 공간계량경제모형을 통해 한국의 가금농장 특성에 따른 HPAI 확산요인을 살펴보았으며, HPAI 확산억제를 위한 최적의 방역범위를 모색하였다. 분석자료는 한국의 HPAI 발생사례 중 가장 큰 피해를 초래했던 2016∼2017년 HPAI 발생자료이다. HPAI 확산요인으로는 농장의 사육규모, 도로망 정보, 입지유형 등 요소를 고려하였다. 모형의 적합도 검정 결과, SEM모형이 보다 적합한 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 모형에 반영된 특성요인외의 타 요인들 간에 공간자기상관이 존재한다는 것을 의미한다. SEM모형에 따르면, 사육규모가 높을수록 HPAI 발생확률이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 정부에서 지정한 AI 중점방역지구에 위치한 농장은 그렇지 않는 농장보다 HPAI 발생 위험성이 더 높은 것으로 나타나, 정부의 AI 중점방역지구의 지정은 HPAI 예방에 효과적일 것으로 판단된다. 도로와 사료공장, 도계(압)장, 철새도래지등 변수들이 HPAI 발생에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나, 이러한 요인들과 인접한 농장일수록 방역수준을 강화할 필요가 있다. HPAI 발생이 공간자기상관이 존재하는 범위는 약 3km인 것으로 추정되었다. 따라서 HPAI 확산에 신속히 대응하기 위한 방역범위를 3km로 지정하는 것이 적절할 것으로 판단된다.