통화정책의 유동성 파급효과 분석 : 은행 가계대출경로를 중심으로

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ) 한국금융연구원 2008 금융조사보고서 Vol.2008 No.1

기업형 임대주택(뉴스테이) 공급 활성화를 위한 금융지원 방안 연구

신용상 ( Yong_sang Shyn ),이상영 ( Sangyoung Lee ),이수욱 ( Soowook Lee ),이태리 ( Taly I. ) 한국금융연구원 2017 기타보고서 Vol.2017 No.1

The purpose of this study is to identify financial support for boosting enterprise-led rental housing(New Stay). The recommen -dations include activating real estate indirect investment such as REITs and real estate fund. First, the indirect investment in Korea is dualized with REITs and real estate fund unlike major advanced countries where real estate indirect investment is uniformed with REITs based on contest. Investing in REITs is limited in Korea because investments from financial institutions are regulated because they are corporations, and investment management is highly restricted. To overcome these new certification structure is needed. Korean REITs has low flexibility because additional incorporation or selling portion is limited. Also its size is small which make it hard to achieve economy of scale. These lead to low profitability. Alternative is Hub-REITs (a mother REITs), however fundamental solution is to develop every REITs can have various business portfolios so that the individuals or institutions can invest freely. In order for this, new structures are needed such as sponsored REITs or stapled REITs, to attract financial investors(FI)` investment by contesting New Stay REITs and facilitating listing. Regulations should be relieved which limits REITs investments, also investors and asset management businesses should be nurtured. These can be achieved through facilitating public opening and listing, reducing tax for investors, and asset management businesses that operate New Stay needs to incorporate not only current REITs management company but also related corporations. REITs asset management company is formed with real estate trust company and independent REITs-concentrated asset management company. These REITsconcentrated asset management companies may not secure profit because it has independent business model. Therefore continuous supports are needed to improve their profitability. In addition, diversifying business entity is needed. In oder for smooth operation of New Stay REITs and expansion of investment, various business entities should be included as REITs and REF investors. Currently, construction companies are majority of those investors. However in the future, various investors should be included such as financial institutions, rental management companies, and pension and funds. Also the anchor of REITs or sponsors(corporations, construction companies, developers, rental management companies, and financial institutions) should be included in asset management. This study examined finance`s role for reducing regulations that limits flexibility of New Stay business. The role includes facilitating public opening of REITs which is a real estate indirect investment item, diversifying listing structure, and utilizing real estate fund. In order to facilitate New Stay, settlement methods, political respond when the long-term rental period is terminated, detailed regulations for nurturing private rental management businesses, and consideration on rent price which is over-calculated compared to political assistance. Also, protecting renter`s rights needs to be considered because selling and renting can be mixed in the case of linked maintenance business. Moreover researches on settlement after the termination of mandatory renting period are needed as well as maintaining infrastructure regarding housing rental management businesses other than finance.

학습기반 반내생성장모형에서의 무역을 통한 기술확산과 경제성장

신용상(Yong Sang Shyn) 한국국제경제학회 2001 국제경제연구 Vol.7 No.3

본 논문에서는 學習基盤 半內生成長模型(semi-endogenous growth model based on learning-by-doing)을 국제무역이론과 결합하여 무역을 통한 국제적 기술확산의 효과를 분석한다. 특별히 선진국과 소규모 개방경제인 신흥공업국간의 중간재 및 자본장비의 거래가 소규모 개방경제의 기술, 경제성장 및 후생에 미치는 영향을 집중적으로 분석한다. 본 이론 분석의 주요 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 모형은 신흥공업국의 지속성장 가능성을 지지한다. 소규모 개방경제의 성장은 자체의 기술혁신 활동뿐만 아니라 선진국의 기술혁신에 의해서도 영향을 받는다. 즉, 경제성장의 초기단계에서는 선진 자본재에 의한 양질의 자본축적과 이에 體化된 선진기술의 학습(learning)에 의해 기술추렴국의 기술발전과 경제성장이 이루어지지만, 경제가 개도국에서 선진국으로 진보함에 따라 자체적인 기술진보가 가장 중요한 성장원천이 된다. 이러한 결론은 고기술개발, 기술발전에 근거한 신산업 진출 등과 같은 기술적 구조변화가 향후 우리나라와 같은 신흥공업국의 경제성장의 새로운 원천이 될 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 둘째, 무역자유화 정도가 높을수록 소규모 개방경제의 선진국에 대한 技術追及의 속도는 빨라지며, 경제성장률도 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 한국을 포함한 동아시아 신흥공업국들의 대외지향형 성장정책을 통한 고도성장의 역사와 맥을 같이한다. 셋째, 본 모형은 기술적 추월(technological leapfrogging)의 가능성을 제시한다. 이런 결론은 신흥공업국이 기술혁신(technological innovation)보다는 학습(learning by doing)을 통해 선진국에서 축적한 기술을 활용할 수 있기 때문에 보다 빠른 성장과 기술추급이 가능하다는 소위 국가간 생산성 및 경제성장의 수렴화(convergence)를 주장하는 Mankiw, Romer and Well(1992) 및 Barro and Sala-i-Martin(1995) 등의 연구결과와 일맥 상통한다.

글러벌 거시·금융 충격과 해외 상업용부동산 투자 위험 분석 -불균형 패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 글로벌 CRE 시장 리스크 분석을 중심으로-

신용상 ( Shyn Yong-sang ) 한국금융연구원 2024 KIF 연구보고서 Vol.2024 No.3

통화정책의 유동성 관리능력 저하와 금융안정 관련 정책적 함의

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ),송재은 ( Jae Eun Song ) 한국금융연구원 2009 금융조사보고서 Vol.2009 No.4

외부금융의존성 및 성장기회가 산업성장에 미치는 영향

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ),오완근 ( Wan Keun Oh ) 한국경제학회 2005 經濟學硏究 Vol.53 No.3

경기변동과 중소기업 자금조달간의 관계에 대한 연구

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ) 한국금융연구원 2006 금융조사보고서 Vol.2006 No.1

국내 금융심화와 산업성장의 관련성에 대한 연구

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ) 한국금융연구원 2005 금융조사보고서 Vol.2005 No.5

국내 주택시장의 수도권-비수도권 간 탈동조화 현상과 정책시사점

신용상 ( Yong Sang Shyn ) 한국금융연구원 2015 KIF 정책보고서 Vol.2015 No.3

In this paper, the growing trend of decoupling in Korea``s housing market between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, and its macro-level and micro- level causes(e.g. supply and demand, regulatory gap, narrowing regional discrepancy, and technical rally) are examined based on a technical analysis and a panel regre- ssion model. The analysis identifies a boom-and-bust cycle in Korean housing market whereby one triggers the other, and suggests that different policies and regulations need to be applied to metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. It is also observed that the key demand for jeonse comes from the middle-and upper- classes due to a surge in deposits, and thus the government``s housing policy needs to focus on welfare for low-income families that increasingly switch from jeonse to monthly rents. Regarding rising household debts and concerns over deteriorating financial condition of banks amid eased regulation on the LTV and DTI and the low interest rate environment, policy proposals are made to maximize positive effects including household debt restructuring and reduced interest cost, and minimize negative developments such as increasing household debt or a sharp rise in housing prices or jeonse deposits.

포스트 코로나 시대 한국금융의 과제와 대응전략

신용상 ( Yong-sang Shyn ) 글로벌금융학회 2020 글로벌금융리뷰 Vol.1 No.1

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about unprecedented upheaval to the entire world socially and economically in all areas from the real economy to finance. However, this will one day come to an end with aftermaths and uncertainties remaining, and it is now for the Korean economy to foresee the paradigm shift that is going to take place and be ready for the new normal. The ultimate goal of the Korean economy and finance in the post COVID-19 phase will be to restore the foundations for sustainable growth by accelerating recovery of the real economy. This progress could be backed by a newly introduced financial support system. In addition, a financial stability system must be established to prepare for various uncertainties and emergency situations that might emerge again and repeatedly. Apart from the crisis-related schemes, coping with the 4th Industrial Revolution and digitalization of finance that are reshaping the financial landscape would also bean important post COVID-19 challenge. In a nutshell, Korea should formulate medium- and long-term industrial policies centered on innovative future technologies and shore these up with new financial support system. Giving each task to a specialized financial institution would be a good approach to raise long-term patient capital for technology and investment, and a well-functioning response system should be built to deal with the consequences of current and similar future crises. Meanwhile, programs to promote long-term assets against aging and polarizing society need to be thoroughly designed, as well as community-based financial system and policy loans for local economies, traditional markets, small business owners, and low income brackets. Moreover, measures should be implemented to absorb employment market shock triggered both by the coronavirus pandemic and the 4th Industrial Revolution. Regarding this, the main task would be to educate the existing work force to better adapt to a whole new working environment and to cultivate young and creative digital finance specialists.