변동환율제하에서의 재정ㆍ금융정책의 효과에 관한 재검토

박송춘(Song Choon Park),정희석(Hee Seog Jung) 한국국제회계학회 2005 국제회계연구 Vol.0 No.12

변동환율제도하에서 자본이동이 완전한 경우에 수입원자재가격의 상승에 대한 영향과 재정ㆍ금융정책의 효과를 소국모델을 가정하여 검토하는데 그 목적이 있다. 즉 하나의 모델분석으로서 모델설정과 시장균형의 조건식 그리고 모델이 갖는 의미를 고찰하였으며 또한 이 모델을 이용하여 재정정책과 금융정책의 효과에 관해 논하였다. 이와 유사한 모델로서는 Findly - Rodriguez모델과 Hayashi모델이 있다. 이상의 분석을 통해 얻을 수 있었던 결론은 다음과 같았다. 첫째, 수입원자재가격의 상승은 적당한 조건하에서 물가고와 소득 및 산출의 하락을 유발시키지만 노동수요량에 관해서는 요소대체의 탄력성이 높으면 오히려 증가할 수도 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 재정정책은 수입원자재가격 상승 후 경제의 회복을 위해 지극히 유효하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 셋째, 이에 반해 금융정책은 명목가격에만 영향을 주기 때문에 본 모델을 토대로 생각할 때는 효과가 있다고는 말할 수 없었다. An objective of this thesis is to review influences on a price increase of imported raw materials and effects of fiscal and monetary policies through a small country model in case where movement of capital is perfect under the floating exchange rate system. That is, as a model analysis, I studied selection of a model, conditional formula for market balance and meaning of the model, and discussed about effects of a fiscal and monetary policies using the model. There are a Findly-Rodriguez model and a Hayashi model similar to the model. I obtained the following results through the model analysis. First, the price increase of imported raw materials causes the fall of high prices of commodities, earnings and production under a proper condition, but the labor demand can be increased if flexibility of element substitution is high. Second, the fiscal policy is very effective for recovering economics after the price increase of imported raw materials. Third, considering this model, it was not judged that the monetary policy is effective since it has an influence only upon the nominal prices.

환율 결정요인에 관한 재검토

박송춘(Song-Choon PARK),조영석(Yeong-Suk CHO) 조선대학교 지식경영연구원 2008 기업과 혁신연구 Vol.1 No.2

본 연구는 환율에 영향을 주는 요인들을 더욱 구체적으로 분석하기 위해서 외환위기 이전과 이후로 구분하여 콜금리 통안 증권 상품수지 물가지수가 , , , 환율에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 실증분석을 하였다. 연구의 결과, IMF 이전에는 상품수지와 콜금리는 환율에 커다란 영향을 주지 못했으며 IMF 이후에는 환율에 통안 증권 수익률과 상품수지가 영향을 주었지만 콜금리나 물가에는 커다란 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이 시기에는 물가가 급격히 상승하거나 완만하게 상승하였기 때문에 물가의 변동폭이 크지 않아 물가가 상승하여 원화가치가 하락하여도 외화가 유입되어 원화가치 하락 폭 이상으로 상쇄된다면 오히려 환율이 하락하는 현상을 보여주는 것을 서술한 그림에서도 찾아볼 수 있었다. 따라서 물가가 완만히 상승하여 원화가치가 하락한다고 하더라도 외화가 유입되어 원화가치 하락 폭 이상으로 상쇄할 경우 물가는 환율에 커다란 영향을 주지 못한다고 할 수 있을 것이다. This paper has conducted an empirical analysis on how call rate, monetary stabilization bonds, commodity price index, and price index influence the exchange rate by dividing the periods into before IMF system and after IMF system in order to concretely analyze the determinants influencing exchange rate. As a result of the research, commodity price index and call rate did not largely influence the exchange rate before IMF system. However, after IMF system, monetary stabilization bonds and commodity price index influenced the exchange rate, but call rate and price index did not. Since the price index rapidly or steadily rose during the period, the change of prices was not wide. So, if an influx of foreign currency offsets a decline of domestic currency in a situation in which domestic currency falls following an increase of price index, the exchange rate rises. The following figures hows such a phenomenon. Thus, it is judged that prices do not largely influence exchange rate if an influx of foreign currency offsets a decline of domestic currency in a situation in which domestic currency falls due to a steady increase of prices.

RP금리가 부동산가격에 미치는 파급효과에 관한 연구

박송춘(Song-Choon Park) 조선대학교 지식경영연구원 2009 기업과 혁신연구 Vol.2 No.1

중앙은행은 2008년 3월부터 기준금리를 콜금리에서 RP금리로 전환하였는데 여기서 RP금리가 부동산가격 중 단독주택가격, 연립주택가격, 아파트가격 그리고 아파트전세가격에 어떠한 영향을 주고 있는지를 분석하고자 한다. 이러한 연유는 중앙은행에서 새롭게 적용하는 RP금리가 부동산가격에 얼마나 영향을 미치는지를 분석한다면 향후 중앙은행은 RP금리를 결정하는 데 보다 신중할 것이고 부동산 공급자와 수요자는 RP금리의 변동에 따른 부동산가격의 움직임을 예측하는데 많은 참고자료가 될 수 있기 때문이다. 또한 최근까지의 연구논문을 살펴보면 주로 콜금리와 부동산가격의 관계에 대한 연구논문이 대부분이고 RP금리와 부동산가격에 대해 연구한 논문은 극소수라는 점을 감안 할 때, 본 연구는 RP금리와 부동산가격의 관계에 대해서 보다 구체적으로 분석하였다는 것에 의의가 클 것으로 사료된다. 분석결과 RP금리가 단독주택가격, 연립주택가격, 아파트가격 그리고 아파트 전세가격에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타나 향후 RP금리의 움직임이 부동산가격에 영향을 줄 것으로 판단되어 RP금리결정에 신중을 기해야 할 것으로 사료된다. The central bank changed its benchmark interest rate from call rate to RP interest rate in March 2008. According to that, the research tries to analyze the effect that RP interest rate has given to the prices of single- family houses, row houses, apartments, and the lease of apartments. As analyzing the effect that RP interest rate newly adopted by the central bank has given to the prices of real estates, the central bank will be more prudent in the decision of its RP interest rate in the future. In addition, the analyzed data can be useful for suppliers and demanders of real estates when they predict the price change of real estates according to the fluctuation of RP interest rate. When considering that the research papers recently published are mostly for the relation between call rate and the prices of real estates but the number of research papers for the relation between RP interest rate and the prices of real estates are very few, this paper is very meaningful in that it concretely analyses the relation between RP interest rate and the prices of real estates. As the result of the analysis shows that RP interest rate has influenced the prices of single- family houses, row houses, apartments, and the lease of apartments, it is judged that the fluctuation of RP interest rate will largely influence the prices of real estates in the future.

초등학생의 도덕의식수준과 경제이해력과의 관계분석 -수도권과 비수도권을 중심으로-

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ) 한국경제교육학회 2012 경제교육연구 Vol.19 No.1

We have performed a survey on 6th graders in elementary schools over their level of morality (desire to keep the rules, ideas over politeness, and ideas over environmental protection) and their understandings of economics simultaneously on students living in the capital area and the non-capital regions. We then proceeded to analyze what kind of relationship existed between their levels of morality and their understandings of economics, and also assessed whether there were any difference between students who lived in the capital area and their counterparts living in the non-capital regions. As a result of the analysis, first, we accepted the sub-hypothesis that the desire to keep the rules and cooperate will have a positive influence on their level of morality. Second, we accepted the sub-hypothesis that their ideas over politeness will have a positive influence on their level of morality. Third, we also accepted the sub-hypothesis that the ideas over environmental protection will have a positive influence on their levels of morality. Based on our test over the overarching hypothesis set to analyze whether such levels of morality influenced their understandings of economics, we also accepted the hypothesis that the levels of morality had a positive influence on their understandings of economics. Therefore, it was concluded that the higher the student`s level of morality, the better their understanding of economics. However, there was no impact from regional identification between the capital area and the non-capital regions, and the hypothesis over existence of such impact was rejected.

기준금리를 통한 신용협동조합의 금리결정 연구

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ),조영석 ( Yeohg Suk Cho ),조국일 ( Kook Il Cho ) 한국금융공학회 2008 한국금융공학회 학술발표회 Vol.2008 No.1

As an important axis of small-loan finance, Credit Union has made substantial development among non-bank financial world. The interest rate of Credit Union, which was small but has played a faithful role as a typical supporter of small-loan finance, has been steady in its operation such that there would be no large difference even if compared with the interest rate of a city bank. This study set the base rate, loan interest, deposit interest as a dependent and independent variable to compare their mutual effects, and made an analysis other independent variables by setting them respectively as a deposit balance and a loan balance. As a result of analysis of Pearson correlation coefficient, the base rate is significantly and positively(+) correlated to respective loan interest and deposit interest. However, it is insignificantly and positively(+) correlated to a deposit and a loan balance, which are quantitative variables. As a result of regression analysis on the basis of correlative analysis, it could be found that interest rates affected each other and became closer to each other. Examining the difference between the base rate and loan/deposit interest of Credit Union, it could be observed that the gap of interest rates from 1999 to 2007 became narrow. This implies that despite the fact Credit Union is a non-bank financial institution, it concentrates on steady deposit and loan business. As to coefficient reaction degree of other variables, it could be found that the base rate and each variable positively react each other in a situation under which the gap of interest spread gradually gets to be narrow. Accordingly, safe assets operation, which reduces the gap of spread from existing interest rates, would bring more useful results.

환율,주가,물가,상품수지의 상호관계에 관한 연구 -한국,중국,일본을 중심으로-

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ),조영석 ( Yeong Suk Cho ) 한국금융공학회 2009 금융공학연구 Vol.8 No.4

The purpose of this research is to analyze effects of the foreign exchange rates, stocks price index, prices, and trade balances of Korea, China and Japan. The reason is that by finding these variables and knowing how they affecting each other, then this research can be used as a valuable reference material when making a decision of the future monetary policy. According the analysis of EViews statistical program regarding the foreign exchange rate, stock price index and prices of Granger relationship, in case of Korea, the stock price index are most affected to the foreign exchange rate, and the foreign exchange rate affects on the prices. In case of China, the foreign exchange rate affects the stock price index, and the foreign exchange rate and the trade balance mutually influences each other. In case of Japan, the foreign exchange rate affects the stock price index and the prices affects on the foreign exchange rate. First, when observing the shock response function results, in case of Korea and China, the shock response on foreign exchange rate mostly affects on the trade balance and the stock price index, but in case of Japan, it was the trade balance where an impact per unit shock increase caused a big impact on the foreign exchange rate.orurthermore, in case of Korea and China, the trade balance and the foreign exchange rate were the biggest variables that impact exchange prices. In case of Japan, it was the foreign exchange rate.oLikewise, in case of Korea and Japan, the foreign exchange rate was the biggest impact ex variables to the trade balance whereas it was the prices for China. Next, looking at the prediction errors, in case of Korea, regarding the foreign exchange rate shock, the stock price index and the prices had the highest illustration, but in case of China and Japan, it showed that the trading balance and prices had the highest illustration. Moreover, regarding the shock of the stock price index, in case of Korea and China, the foreign exchange rate and the trade balance had the best description, whereas in case of Japan, the foreign exchange rate and the prices had the best description. Regarding the price shock, Korea correlated the highest with the foreign exchange rate. In case of China, they were the foreign exchange rate and the stock price index, and in case of Japan, the trade balance and the stock price index had the most reasonable description. Lastly, regarding the trade balance shock, in case of both Korea and Japan, prices and the foreign exchange rate had the highest correlation. In case of China, the foreign exchange rate correlated the most.

RP금리가 상호저축은행의 금리결정에 미치는 효과 분석

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ),조영석 ( Yeong Suk Cho ) 한국금융공학회 2008 금융공학연구 Vol.7 No.4

This study is to analyze how RP rate affects loan and deposit interest rates of mutual savings bank. By analyzing how RP rate (benchmark interest rate for financial institutions since March, 2008) has an impact on those two interest rates, this study can be very useful to decide interest rate of mutual savings bank as well as management policy. First, according to the Granger Causality Test, deposit interest rate of mutual savings bank seems to have a meaningful impact on RP rate and CD rate. Meanwhile, loan interest rate seems to have the same impact on deposit interest rate. Second, in terms of the impulse response of RP rate in the Impulse Response Test, deposit interest rate stood at 0,0485% in four months, 0.0022% in 16 months, and later it trickled down to 0. Meanwhile, loan interest rate of the bank was down to -0.0039% in four months but up to 0.0022% in eight months, showing that the impulse was getting decreased. Third, the result of variance decomposition of prediction errors on RP rate shows that variance of prediction errors can largely be explained by impulse of self variable.

은행종사자들의 고용불안이 고객지향성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

박송춘 ( Park Song-choon ),나영 ( Na Young ) 인문사회 21 2018 인문사회 21 Vol.9 No.2

This study aimed to examine the job instability of bank workers on organizational commitment, turnover intention and customer orientation, and a total of 203 bank workers in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do region participated in this study. The structural equation model of the AMOS 21.0 program was used for data analysis. The results of the study showed that the job instability of bank workers had a large effect on organizational commitment, turnover intention and customer orientation, with organizational commitment and turnover intention playing a mediational role and affecting customer orientation. Consequently, bank workers, exposed to emotional labor a lot compared to other jobs, should be encouraged to develop morale ability so that they would be faithful to their jobs without leaving off their job. To this end, various education programs should be developed for bank workers’ job stability and competence development. The limit of this study is that the regional characteristics weren’t analyzed with the bank samples in the study expanded into the nationwide level, and that temporary employees who have to be sesitive to employment instability were overlooked, and the samples weren’t divided

우리나라 부동산(不動産) 증권화(證券化) 도입(導入)에 따른 문제점 및 활용방안(活用方案)

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ),조국일 ( Kook Il Cho ) 한국지역발전학회 2003 지역발전연구 Vol.3 No.1

상호저축은행과 신용협동조합의 금리결정요인에 관한 실증분석

박송춘 ( Song Choon Park ),임홍수 ( Heoung Soo Lim ),김성후 ( Sung Hoo Kim ) (사)한국협동조합학회 2009 한국협동조합연구 Vol.27 No.1