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2020년 방한 중국관광객 수요 예측을 위한 수요 예측 모델 비교 분석에 관한 연구
박득희(Deuk-Hee Park),이민정(Min-Jung Lee),류한순(Han-Sun Ryu),이계희(Gye-Hee Lee) 한국산학기술학회 2014 한국산학기술학회 학술대회 Vol.- No.-
본 연구에서는 급변하는 시장의 특성과 계절성을 반영하여 가장 최근의 방한 중국 관광객 데이터 (1998 ~2013년)를 사용하여 정량적 수요 예측기법을 적용, 최적의 예측기법을 선정하여 2020년까지의 중장기적인 중국 관광객의 방한 수요를 예측하였다. 분석결과, 방한 중국 관광객의 단․중기 잠재수요 의 예측에 적합한 최적의 예측기법은 윈터스 승법모델로 나타났으며, 2020년의 방한 중국 관광객 수는 12,554,371명으로 예측되었다.
박득희(Deuk Hee Park),이계희(Gye Hee Lee),이민정(Min Jung Lee) 한국관광연구학회 2015 관광연구저널 Vol.29 No.3
The purpose of this study is to forecast the demand for Chinese tourists, the largest domestic tourism market of Korea in 2013, using, four quantitative forecasting models to predict the demand for Chinese tourists visiting Korea: Holt model, Winters(addictive seasonality, multiplicative seasonality), ARIMA model, and Regression model. Based on time-series data analyses for the Chinese tourists who had visited Korea for last 16 years(1998-2013). Each model was assessed by MAPE(mean absolute percentage error). several results were derived as follows: First, Winter``s multiplicative model(MAPE=12.833) appeared to perform the best in terms of forecasting accuracy, followed by Winter``s addictive model(MAPE=13.230), Holt exponential smoothing model(MAPE=14.784). Second, the Winters multiplicative technique model predicted 12,554,371, followed by Winter’s addictive model predicted 16,389,757 Chinese tourists visiting Korea in 2020. Third, this study suggested that this forecasting techniques could help destination markers set strategic goals and develop plans to attract the Chinese tourists based on the forecasted demand for Chinese tourists visiting Korea. In addition, accurate forecast of future demand also facilitates their efficient allocation of marketing resources. Based on the results of four different forecasting techniques, some practical implications of this study will provide researchers and tourism industry practitioners with appropriate predicting method when forecasting demand for Chinese tourists.