항해사 COLREGs 섹터 충돌 상황 인식 모델링에 관한 연구

박득진,김태연,김홍태,임정빈 한국수산해양기술학회(구 한국어업기술학회) 2024 한국수산해양기술학회 학술발표대회 Vol.2024 No.04

협수로에서 MASS의 충돌 예방을 위한 선원 인식 도메인에 관한 연구

박득진,이희진 한국항해항만학회 2022 한국항해항만학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2022 No.춘계

Finding Hazard Factors by New Risks on Maritime Safety in Korea

박득진,박성북,양형선,임정빈 해양환경안전학회 2016 해양환경안전학회지 Vol.22 No.3

The key features of maritime accidents are the change of their attributes by new risks from time to time. To prevent maritime accidents in Korea, the impacts by new risks on domestic safety environments should be identified or predicted. The purpose of this paper is to find the hazard factors by new risks on maritime safety in Korea. The meaning of new risks is the elements of accident hazard which is compiled from new or rare or unprecedented events in the worldwide maritime transportations. The problems of new risks are the lacks of optimum countermeasures to mitigate accident risks. Using the questionnaires with 152 event scenarios classified by 20 accident causes, the hazard identification and risk analysis of new risks was performed based on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by IMO. A total of 22 Influence Diagrams, which is to depict the transit flows between accident causes to consequences, is used in the construction of 152 event scenarios. A total of 20 accidents causes is the same contents as the causation factors represented in Statistical Year Book for Maritime Accidents of Korean Maritime Safety Tribunals. After defining the evaluation equations to the response results of questionnaires by 46 experts, the work for risk analysis is carried out. As results from the analysis of 152 scenarios, it is known that the root cause to affect on maritime safety in Korea is the pressure of business competition and it led to the lacks of well experienced crews, the overload of vessel operations and crew's fatigue. In addition, as results from the analysis of 20 accident causes, the three accident causes are to be candidate as main issues in Korea such as the inadequate preparedness of departure, the neglecting of watch keeping in bridge and the inadequate management of ship operations. All of the results are thought to be as basic hazard factors to safety impediments. It is thus found that the optimum Risk Control Options to remove the hazard factors and to mitigate consequences required are the following two factors: business competition and crewing problems.

선박조종시뮬레이터를 이용한 해기사 SRK 행동 측정 방법 고찰

박득진,양형선,임정빈 한국항해항만학회 2017 한국항해항만학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2017 No.추계

인적오류에 인한 사고는 매년 발생 중이고, 인적오류에 의한 해양사고는 과학적인 인적오류모델을 통해서 해결방안을 모색할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 선박조종시뮬레이터를 이용하여 해기사의 SRK(Skill, Rule, Knowledge) 행동을 식별하기 위한 것이다. SRK 행동은 라스무센이 제안한 행동 이론으로, 본 연구에서는 주어진 상황에 대해서 해기사들이 나타내는 성공 또는 실패 행동을 식별하는데 적용하였다. 식별한 해기사들의 SRK 행동은 인적오류모델의 변수로 적용할 예정이다. 이에, 본 논문에서는 하나의 선행 연구로서 해기사들의 SRK 행동을 선박조종시뮬레이터를 이용하여 측정하는 방법과 측정에 필요한 도구 및 지금까지의 연구결과를 고찰하였다.

새로 창출된 해상 위기 평가기법 고찰

박득진,이홍훈,김득봉,임정빈 해양환경안전학회 2016 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2016 No.04

자율운항 선박 관제사의 행동오류 측정방법 고찰

박득진,양형선,임정빈 해양환경안전학회 2018 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2018 No.06

선원 행동오류에 대한 최적 확률분포함수 추정에 관한 연구

박득진,임정빈,양형선 한국항해항만학회 2019 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.43 No.1

Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors. 해양사고를 야기한 선원의 행동오류를 식별하는 것은 해양사고의 예방 또는 저감에 관한 연구의 기초가 된다. 본 연구의 목적은 선원들의 행동오류를 세 가지 행동(즉, Skill, Rule, Knowledge)으로 모델링하는데 필요한 최적의 확률분포함수를 추정하는데 있다. 본 저자들의 사전 연구에서 획득한 해양사고 종류별 행동오류 데이터를 이용하여 세 가지 행동오류에 최적인 확률분포함수를 추정하고, 확률분포함수에서 도출한 확률 값들 사이의 유의성을 검증하였다. 확률분포함수 추정에는 최우추정법(Maximum Likelihood Estimation, MLE)을 적용하고, 유의성 검증에는 분산분석(ANOVA)를 이용하였다. 실험결과 여덟 가지 해양사고 종류별 세 가지 행동으로 각각에 대해서 최소의 오차를 갖는 확률분포함수를 추정할 수 있었다. 이를 이용하여 계산한 여덟 가지의 해양사고 종류에 대한 세 가지 행동오류들의 확률 값들은 통계적인 유의성이 관측 되었다. 또한, 행동오류가 해양사고에 영향을 미치는 것으로 관측되었다.

A Study on the Relationship between Human Factors and Marine accidents types

박득진,강유미 해양환경안전학회 2016 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2016 No.11

Comparisons of Seafarers' Perception of Maritime and Onshore Traffic Conditions

박득진,김홍태,양형선,임정빈 해양환경안전학회 2019 해양환경안전학회지 Vol.25 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to compare seafarers’ behavior according to traffic conditions of a road and an onshore locations. Behaviors are classified into three categories: Skill-, Rule- and knowledge-based mode. Experimental data were collected using the questionnaires for navigators, working in a merchant ship. To compare the behaviors, we used the four analysis method; the degree of frequency, reliability test, correlation and linear regression. As a result of the study, it was found that Skill-based behavior shows more higher in the road traffic than the maritime traffic, and rule-based behavior shows more higher in the maritime traffic than the road traffic. Also, the behavior in the navigation situation showed statistical significance. Especially, in the case of Rule-based behavior, a high correlation between road and maritime was found. This study can be expected to apply to complementary system utilization between error management system of onshore and maritime traffic.

Analysing the Impact of New Risks on Maritime Safety in Korea Using Historical Accident Data

박득진,박성북,양형선,임정빈,Park, Deuk-Jin,Park, Seong-Bug,Yang, Hyeong-Sun,Yim, Jeong-Bin The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safet 2016 해양환경안전학회지 Vol.22 No.7

본 연구의 목적은 새로운 사고의 위기가 국내 해양안전에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위함이다. 새로운 사고 위기는 세계 해상운송에서 새롭거나 드물게 또는 예측하지 못한 사건들로부터 유추한 것으로 사전 연구에서 46명의 전문가를 통해서 식별한 것이다. 새로운 해양사고의 위기를 식별하기 위하여 해양안전심판원(KMST)의 통계 데이터를 계산에 사용하였고, IMO의 공식안정성평가기법인 위기지수(RI) = 빈도지수(FI) + 심각성지수(SI)의 개념을 계산에 적용하였다. 통계적인 사고 데이터로부터 FI와 SI의 가중치를 계산한 후 가장 순위가 높은 시나리오를 식별하고 새로운 사고 위기와 시나리오 사이의 관계를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 가장 순위가 높은 시나리오의 근본적인 원인은 "첨단기술 개발"이었고, 그 결과 "화물 작업 시간 단축"이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 사전 연구에서 46명의 전문가에 의해 식별한 "영업 경쟁" 및 "선원 문제" 등과 차이가 있음을 보였다. The purpose of this work is to analyse the impact of new accident risks on maritime safety in Korea. The new accident risks have been induced from new/rare or unprecedented events in world maritime transportation, as identified by 46 experts in the previous study. To measure the impact of these new accident risks on maritime safety in Korea, the statistical accident data reported by the Korean Maritime Safety Tribunals (KMST) has been used for calculation, and the concept of Risk Index (RI) = Frequency Index (FI) + Severity Index (SI)established in a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the IMO has also been introduced. After calculating two kinds of weight for FI and SI from the statistical accident data, high ranked scenarios were identified and their relationships between new risks and these scenarios were analysed. The results from this analysis showed, the root cause of the top-ranked scenario to be "developing high technology", which leads to "shorten cargo handling time". These results differed from optimum RCOs such as "business competition" and "crewing problems" which were identified in the previous study.