기후변화에 따른 도시 노후건축물의 재해피해 분석

김소윤(Kim, Soyoon),윤지윤(Yoon, Jiyoon),김홍석(Kim, Brian H.S) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2016 국토계획 Vol.51 No.5

Climate change and growing number of old and deteriorated buildings in urban area have increased the risk to a possible disaster. This study finds influential factors on disaster damage in urban areas and predicts the possible damage scale under the climate change scenarios. Five years of data from 2009 to 2013 are used within 69 cities in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan. Using tobit model with related variables, the results indicate that the ratio of old and deteriorated buildings, scale impervious area, rate of precipitation and wind speed can increase damage scale of the buildings. On the other hand, increase in the length of sewer and annual budget can decrease the damage scale. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 from IPCC is adopted to predict the possible damage in each major cities in Korea. The results indicate that the damage can increase by 2.0 to 9.6 times and Busan and Gwanju can suffer with highest damage due to significant increase of precipitation. This study suggest that the administration needs to reflect and adopt the possible consequences from climate change in highly population concentrated urban area with increasing number of the deteriorating building for their disaster management policy.

환경보호 및 사회복지 예산과 기후 회복력의 관계: 고령층 폭염 질환 사망률을 중심으로

김소희(Kim, Sohee),김홍석(Kim, Brian H.S.),김소윤(Kim, Soyoon),최상원(Choi, Sangwon) 한국기후변화학회 2024 한국기후변화학회지 Vol.15 No.3

The phenomena of extreme weather due to climate change and changes in population structure will become important issues as the elderly population, who are particularly vulnerable to climate change, continues to increase. Recognizing the damage caused by climate change, it is necessary to enhance the climate resilience of local governments to mitigate and prevent such damage. Furthermore, efficient allocation of budgets is essential for the establishment of policies and infrastructure by local governments to improve climate resilience. Accordingly, this research analyzed the relationship between the reduction of heatwave mortality rates in the elderly population and budgets for social welfare and environmental protection, as a preemptive response to potential damage related to climate change and demographic changes. Analyzing ten years of financial, demographic, heat index, and mortality rate data from 227 cities through panel analysis revealed a positive correlation between higher social welfare and environmental protection budget proportions and improved climate resilience. This increase in budget proportion had a negative relationship with heatwave mortality rate among the elderly population, indicating the necessity of increasing the share of these budgets to improve climate resilience. These results have major implications for policy formulation to address climate change and demographic shifts.

우리나라 도시 및 지역 인구의 적정 규모 추정

김의준(Euijune Kim),김홍석(Brian-H.S. Kim),최명섭(Myoungsub Choi),김상헌(Sanghun Kim) 한국도시행정학회 2010 도시 행정 학보 Vol.23 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to analyze optimal levels of population of urban and regional areas in Korea using a urban hierarchy model of population. This paper finds that the population sizes of Seoul Metropolitan Area, Chungcheong, Dongnam and Daekyung are larger than the optimal levels, while those of Gangwon and Honam Areas increasing their population sizes to achieve an efficiency of resource allocation. An excessive population size of Seoul could cause a loss of welfare benefits as much as 4.2~8.6% of economic incomes. The optimal level of regional population tends to rely on model constraints, model structure and data types, so it should be assessed in terms of other components such as productivities and agglomeration, population stock and migration, cost structure and productions and expenditures, too. Finally, the regional conflicts need to be shifted from Seoul vs non-Seoul to over-concentration regions vs the less development regions in the near future.

환경적 측면의 ODA사업 효율성과 우선순위 평가: 폐기물 에너지화 기술과 오수, 지하수 정화 기술을 중심으로

손민수 ( Minsu Son ),김홍석 ( Brian H. S. Kim ) 성균관대학교 국정전문대학원 2014 국정관리연구 Vol.9 No.2

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency in environmental benefits and greenhouse gas mitigation from urban regeneration technologies provided by ODA to the beneficial countries. Because of increasing number of problems suffered due to accelerated urbanization in these countries, the promising transfer technologies are waste-to-energy and sewage purification. Environmental values from these technologies transfers are measured using benefit transfer method. The most effective countries are the countries with a large population, such as Nigeria, Indonesia, and The Philippines, and the most effective countries are the countries with fastest urban acceleration, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Cambodia, and Laos. For the CO2 emission reduction, most effective countries are Indonesia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Peru, and Egypt, whereas most efficient countries are Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Cambodia, and Laos.

서울시민들의 주관적 건강 행복지수 결정요인 분석

장인수 ( Chang Insu ),김홍석 ( Kim Brian H. S. ) 한국보건사회연구원 2016 保健社會硏究 Vol.36 No.3

The implementation of urban planning policy should come about at the regional level with ecological perspectives based on the social need for promoting individuals` subjective health and wellbeing. Recognizing the hierarchical relationship between the individual and the community, this study examined the regional factors that affect people`s subjective health and wellbeing. For our empirical analysis we used Ordered Logistic Multilevel model. The data used for this study are from the 2013 Seoul Survey (for the individual) and Seoul Statistics (for the regional). The results indicated that environmental amenities such as local parks, green spaces and green streetscape had a positive association with local residents` subjective health and wellbeing. Therefore, the effect of environmental amenities are empirically supported, which further argues for the importance of developing local amenities in promoting the wellbeing of local residents. Consequently, planning policies such as 2030 Seoul Plan should consider the regional characteristics and their potential effect on the wellbeing and health of Seoul citizens.

지불거부 응답처리에 따른 시화국가산업단지 토양오염 정화 및 오염방지의 가치비교 연구

손민수(Son, Minsu),김홍석(Kim, Brian H.S.) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2014 국토계획 Vol.49 No.5

This study compares the willingness to pay (WTP) for purification of contaminated soil in Sihwa National Industrial Complex (SNIC). The value of SNIC is elicited by using the sample selection model and controlling the existence of sample selection bias. To compare the value of the project fourt type of logit models are applied: Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice (SBDC) CVM, Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice (DBDC) CVM, Type-I Tobit model and Type-Ⅱ Tobit model. The estimated WTP for SNIC contaminated soil purification is 6,279 won/month/household in SBDC, 2,188 won/month/household in DBDC, 1,214 won/month/household in Type-I Tobilt model, and 2,389 won/month/household in Type-Ⅱ Tobit model with bias control. Therefore, the WTP is overestimated 3 times when the sample selection bias is not controlled in the estimation.

ODA 변화가 공여국의 경제에 미치는 영향: 사회기반시설 산업을 중심으로

박수정 ( Su Jeong Park ),김소윤 ( So Yoon Kim ),김홍석 ( Brian H. S. Kim ) 국제지역학회 2015 국제지역연구 Vol.19 No.2

The Korean government plans to increase its official development assistance (ODA), which is expected to have a significant impact on the Korean economy. The Korean government also plans to partially change the ODA type from tied ODA to untied ODA. That is, implementation of untied ODA would be increased, whereas that of tied ODA would be decreased. However, the impact of ODA on the donor country is rarely investigated. This study analyzes the effect of ODA policies on Korea and its economy. Using a social accounting matrix, the real ODA costs are calculated based on the form and amount of grants in various scenarios. The infrastructure sector, which is a substantial part of the Korean ODA, is a main focus of this study to analyze the effect of ODA on Korean economy. The result conflict with that of the previous study where ODA had a positive effect on the donor country because of exports. In a scenario where ODA was increased by 5%, the total output of Korea decreased by 0.02%. In a scenario where the change from tied ODA to untied ODA was 5%, the total output of Korea decreased by 12.60%. These results show that increased ODA lead to higher opportunity costs than benefits.

생태환경정보를 활용한 생태가치평가 기술개발 및 표준화연구

정다정(Jung Da-jung),허준(Heo Joon),유수홍(Yoo Su Hong),김홍석(BRIAN H.S. KIM) 대한토목학회 2009 대한토목학회 학술대회 Vol.2009 No.10

권역별 용산공원 조성의 환경편익 추정

온누리(Ohn Nu-Ree),손민수(Son Min-su),김홍석(Kim Brian H.S) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2010 국토계획 Vol.45 No.5

The purpose of this research is to evaluate benefits of the environmental changes. For a real analysis, environmental benefit from the Yongsan Park construction is estimated even though the Yongsan Park is now on construction plan. In this research, firstly, the environmental benefit that Seoul citizens may utilize from Yongsan Park construction is estimated, then Yongsan area and Non-Yongsan areas are divided to elicit and compare willingness to pay of Yongsan households and Non-Yongsan households for analyzing the value differences. In this research, Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) is used at the quantitative analysis approach for the environmental benefits of non market goods. Also, the double bounded dichotomous choice is used to elicit respondents' Willingness to Pay(WTP). According to the result, the environmental value of the Yongsan Park construction is approximately 13,512 won/household per year. Also the environmental value difference between Yongsan and Non-Yongsan is approximately 1,941 won/household per month, that is about 11,498 won/household per year.

생태환경정보를 활용한 생태가치평가

정다정(Jung Da-jung),허준(Heo Joon),유수홍(Yoo Su Hong),김홍석(BRIAN H.S. KIM) 대한공간정보학회 2010 한국공간정보학회 학술대회 Vol.2010 No.1

본 연구의 목적은 생물의 다양성의 가치를 경제학적 증거와 타당한 분석방법 통해 평가하므로써 종 다양성에 대한 보호대책의 중요성을 말하고자하는데 있다. 본 연구에서는 강원도 평창군의 종 다양성의 가치를 비 사용가치, 사용가치(직접사용가치, 간접사용가치)로 평가하였다. 그 결과 총 1400억원의 비사용가치가 CVM분석방법을 통해 도출되었으며, 직접사용가치는 산림의 임분재적량을 통해 약 135백억으로 평가되었으며, 간접사용가치는 탄소가치평가를 이용하여 약 170만ton의 탄소가 저장된 것으로 산정되었다.