Ultra-Wideband 레이더를 이용한 CNN/LSTM 모델 기반 환경에 독립적인 행동 인식

김진유(Jinyou Kim),이재국(Jaegook Lee),서영주(Young-Joo Suh) 한국통신학회 2020 한국통신학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2020 No.2

주거지불능력 및 주거환경이 통근자족성에 미치는 영향

김진유(Kim, Jin-Yoo),성현곤(Sung, Hyungun),박지형(Park, Jee-Hyung) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2012 國土計劃 Vol.47 No.5

This study aims at investigating the impact of housing affordability and residential environment on commuting pattern by two empirical models: aggregated regression model and disaggregated multi-level logit model. The 2010 household travel survey data and communities’ statistics are used for the estimation. The main results are summarized as follows: First, housing affordability and education environment affect inter-commuting ratio increase. Second, after controlling the employment concentration effect, the quantitative jobs-housing balance do not affect commuting efficiency calculated by internal commuting ratio and commuting time. These results provide policy implications for the more efficient urban structure. First, high density business center and residential development would be better than dispersed development under the condition of well balanced jobs-housing ratio. Second, The Provision of small-sized affordable housing can be very effective in order to improve the commuting efficiency.

가구원수별 가구수를 활용한 주택수요추정 모형 연구

김진유 ( Kim Jin-yoo ),박지윤 ( Park Ji-yun ) 한국부동산분석학회 2017 不動産學硏究 Vol.23 No.4

This paper aims at developing a household-based housing demand model. The traditional Mankiw-Weil (M-W) model and derivative models have used population data to estimate housing demand. Those models have limitation that population decrease can diminish housing demand directly even though the number of households increases. Korea Statistical Office forecasts that the number of households will reach the peak in 2043 after population size starts decreasing in 2031. In fact, the number of households increases for 12 years despite the decrease in population. This study suggests a household-based model using 2014 Korea Housing Survey data with two control variables; income and housing expense of each household. The main independent variables are six dummies representing the number of family members from 1 to 6 or over. Nonlinear estimation results show that the model is statistically better than the most recently modified M-W model in terms of goodness of fit. The coefficients of family size dummies in the household-based model are all significant at 1% while the M-W model has some insignificant coefficients. The estimation results by the two models show that increase of household expands housing demand during population decrease in 2030s and 2040s. The results imply that the existing M-W model may underestimate future housing demand and cause serious short supply if the housing policy depends on the population-based housing demand model like M-W model. In other words, the household-based model suggested by this study can be used as one of the effective housing demand models for population decline era.

수도권 아파트 실거래가와 시세간 격차의 결정요인 분석

김진유 ( Kim Jin Yoo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2017 不動産學硏究 Vol.23 No.1

This study investigated determinants of price gap between asking price and transaction price. The price gap model can be used as a tool of housing market evaluation and forecasting because the asking price data is useful when transaction volume is very low. The results drawn by Tobit model regression can be summarized as follows. First, price gap ratio (absolute value of price gap to asking price ratio) is strongly associated with market change including transaction price change, and price level and transaction volume of the sub-market. The greater price change, the bigger price gap. However, more transactions make the gap smaller. Second, unit size and building age significantly affect price gap ratio (PGR). The PGR grows as unit size increases. Older apartments show greater PGR than younger ones. The results imply that PGR model can be useful as a tool for evaluation of housing market change and estimation of expected price change, especially in the depressed sub-market where housing transaction price data is very little.

해외 선분양 사례 및 전문가의견 조사를 통한 효과적인 후분양 활성화방안 연구

김진유(Kim, Jin-Yoo) SH도시연구원 2020 주택도시연구 Vol.10 No.3

본 연구는 해외의 선분양제도와 사례를 검토하고 주택전문가들의 후분양 의무화에 대한 인식을 조사하여 효과적인 후분양 활성화를 위한 시사점을 도출하고자 하였다. 해외사례 검토 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 주택의 준공전 판매는 선진국에서도 활용되는 제도로서 원활한 주택공급을 위해 존재가치가 있다. 둘째, 수분양자를 통한 자금조달 목적 보다는 해당 프로젝트의 사업성(분양성)을 확인하여 은행 등 금융권으로부터의 자금조달을 원활히 하기 위한 전제조건으로 활용된다. 셋째, 프로젝트로 건설되는 주택의 전체가 아닌 일부를 선분양하는 경우가 대부분이다. 후분양제 도입에 대한 전문가들의 의견을 분석한 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 후분양 의무화는 소비자의 선택권 확대와 소비자 보호 차원에서 필요하다는 데에는 동의하지만, 투기억제나 시장안정 차원에서는 별 효과가 없을 것이라는 인식이 강하다. 둘째, 전문가들은 공히 긍정적인 효과에 더 동의하지만 민간건설업계의 전문가들은 대기업중심의 공급주체 양극화가 심화될 것으로 전망하고 있다. 셋째, 후분양제 도입에 있어 가장 필요한 조치는 금융지원확대로 자금회수기간 연장이 가장 중요하다고 인식하고 있다. 위의 연구결과는 몇 가지 시사점을 제공한다. 첫째, 선분양을 금지하고 후분양을 의무화하기 보다는 선분양과 후분양이 적절한 비율로 공존하도록 만드는 것이 시장효율성이나 소비자선택권 확대에 더 바람직하다. 둘째, 후분양으로 전환하더라도 현재 고려중인 최대 80% 공정 후 분양이라면 하자확인에 한계가 있으므로 하자보증은 여전히 유효하다. 셋째, 후분양하면 발코니 확장 등 옵션선택권이 제한되므로 사전예약제와 같은 보완적인 제도가 필요하다. Since the approval of the Housing Supply Law in 1978, the practice of pre-sale has rapidly contributed to the increase of housing supply in Korea. Though the pre-sale system in Korea continues to play an important role, many experts argue that it still retains negative factors which limit consumer’s choices. This study aims to suggest a different kind of effective sale system for newly-built housing in Korea. This paper reviews pre-sale systems and cases within several developed countries, and then provides an overall analysis of experts’ opinions on the conversion to a post-construction sale system. The results are summarized as follows. Firstly, the pre-sale system remains a useful tool for the housing market in multiple case countries, including the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, with these case countries using pre-sale as a tool of financing and marketing. Secondly, Korean housing experts agree overall that a post-construction sale system would have higher positive impact than a pre-sale system. However, there is a lack of general consensus on whether a conversion to a post-construction system in the private housing development system would possibly cause a significant drop in housing supply due to difficulties with financing. Particularly, there is concern that the business scope of small-sized housing construction companies would be significantly limited without proper financial support. In addition, field experts point out that post-construction sales do not necessarily guarantee lower construction defects, as most sale contracts are executed before completion even under the post-construction sale system in Korea. Overall, these results indicate that it would be beneficial to promote a post-construction sale system, but only with the expansion of financial support for private housing developers. Additionally, the coexistence of both presale and post-construction systems results in a much more efficient and effective sale system, ass opposed to the pursuit of only one of them. Lastly, a reservation system is necessary to provide home buyers with more choices, such as including option for additions such as balcony renovation, even when making use of a post-construction sale system.

공공임대주택 입주계층별 주택수요추정 방법 연구

김진유(Kim, Jin-Yoo),이창우(Lee, Chang-Woo) SH도시연구원 2017 주택도시연구 Vol.7 No.3

The purpose of this study is to develop a resonable estimation method of public rental housing demand for vulnerable groups. The procedure includes 5 stages. At the first stage, new housing demand of vulnerable groups is estimated by target group including university students, newly married couple, young workers, and elders. Second stage calculates demolition rate of existing housing by the previous years statistical trends. The disappearing housing units are added to the new demand because destruction causes alternative demand. The third stage reviews housing units supplied by the other projects within the study project period. The number of units will be deducted from the new demand. At the fourth, net demand is estimated by subtracting competitive supply from the demand. Finally, the price elasticity of housing demand is applied to the net demand. The case study shows that the newly developed housing demand procedure of this study makes totally different results compared to the existing estimation method. The number of housing units estimated by various vulnerable groups are different from that of traditional housing demand methodology such as Mankiw-Weil model. The results imply that target group demand estimation needs more detailed data and procedure rather than simple approach like population based estimation model.

서울대도시권의 산업별 고용분포 변화분석(2000~2010)

김진유(Kim, Jin Yoo),이호준(Lee, Ho Jun),정형은(Jung, Hyung Eun) 한국부동산원 2016 부동산분석 Vol.2 No.1

본 연구는 서울대도시권의 행정읍면동별 고용밀도를 이용하여 산업대분류별 고용분포의 특징과 지난 10년간(2000~2010년)의 고용분포 변화패턴을 분석하였다. 전체 대분류 산업 중 시계열분석이 가능하고 뚜렷한 특징을 보이는 8개 산업을 선정하였으며, 통계청의 행정구역 면적과 종사자 수 자료를 사용하였다. 전역적 모란지수의 변화와 국지모란지수 및 핫스팟분석을 통해 산업별 공간분포의 특징을 살펴본 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전체고용자의 분포는 점차적으로 전통적인 고용중심지 집중도가 약화되면서 경기도와 인천의 외곽지역에 고밀고용지가 증가하는 패턴을 보였다. 둘째, 전통적인 기반산업인 제조업, 건설업 등은 외곽으로의 고용이전이 급격하게 진행되어 지가가 저렴한 지역에 집중하는 경향을 보였다. 반면, 금융보험업 및 부동산업 등은 거의 변화를 보이지 않으면서 오히려 전통적인 고용중심지인 도심, 영등포, 강남에 더욱 집중하는 추세를 보였다. 셋째, 공공성이 강한 교육서비스업, 보건 및 사회복지서비스업 등은 공간적으로 고르게 분포하며 10년 동안 외곽으로 꾸준히 확산되는 패턴을 보였다. 이상의 결과는 도시공간에서 일어나는 고용분포가 산업별로 매우 다르게 나타난다는 것을 방증한다. 그러므로 산업의 분산이나 집적을 통해 향후 산업생산성을 향상시키고 도시공간구조의 효율성을 높이고자 한다면 전체고용자의 분포패턴 뿐만 아니라 산업별 분포패턴을 함께 고려할 필요가 있음을 시사한다. 또한 주택정책에 있어서도 산업별 고용분포의 차이를 고려하면 보다 효과적인 직주근접효과를 얻을 수 있음을 시사한다. 예를 들어 제조업 종사자들을 위한 공공임대는 외곽에 금융보험업 종사자들을 위한 주택은 전통적 고용중심지에 입지시키는 것과 같이 주요수요자들의 고용지 분포를 고려한 주택정책이 고려될 수 있을 것이다. This Study investigates time-series change of employment centers by nine industries between 2000 and 2010. The study discusses different distribution pattern of employment centers of Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) by industries. The spatial concentration level is calculated by Global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I. The results are summarized as follows. First, overall employment distribution change shows decentralization. High density areas were connected to the traditional employment centers and made employment corridor. Second, basic industries like manufacturing and transportation had moved from the old business centers to outskirts. Third, public services including education and human health and social work activities have been relatively well distributed and showed minor change during the study period. Fourth, finance and insurance and real estate activities are clustered in the 3 major centers. The results imply that employment distribution analysis by major industries are necessary as well as total employment distribution in order to improve efficiency of urban spatial structure. For instance, if we can assume the different housing demand by industries, employees of manufacturing companies need to move to near suburban areas while residential buildings for FIRE industries are planned in the traditional business centers.

저소득가구 주거이동특성 분석

김진유(Kim Jin-Yoo),지규현(Ji Kyu-Hyun) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2007 國土計劃 Vol.42 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the characteristics of low-income families’ residential mobility in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). The total of 41,705 tenants’ demographic data and rental housing characteristic data were used to analyze the pattern of residential mobility and detect determinants of migration distance. The results are summarized as follows: First, the inter-province movement is relatively few: from 2.7% to 13.1% of total tenants in the SMA. However, there are measurable variation in the inter-regional migration among the cities within the each metropolitan area(Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggy). Second, the major determinants of average migration distance of a rental house complex are the regional characteristics such as area of the region, home-ownership ratio, apartment ratio. The results give an implication on low-income housing policies: The regional demand of the new public rental housing varies by the locational factors.

토지임대부 및 환매조건부주택 수요특성 분석

김진유(Kim Jin-Yoo) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2008 國土計劃 Vol.43 No.1

Korea housing market has experienced high-rocketing price change in recent years. Therefore, government has tried to stabilize it and supply affordable housing through policy changes. Public Land Lease System and Resale-Obligation Housing Program are two of them. Though many studies have suggested productive implications in order to adopt them in the Korea housing market successfully. they did not consider demand as a main factor. However, the first testing site supply results showed the shortage of demand under the current contract conditions. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the demand characteristics of the two affordable housing programs and identify the determinants of demand of them. The results are summarized as follows: First, selling price and resale term are critical factors in applicants' decision of contract. Second, income, tenure type (owners vs tenants), degree of cognition, subscription bank account are the significant factors of demand. The results provide some policy implications for the future supply strategy: First, lower land rent and automatic leasing term expansion should be done in order to meet the demand of housing with leasehold land. Second, shorter resale term and lower selling price will be the condition of successive Resale-Obligation Housing Program.

고위험 전세와 전세보증금 미반환 위험의 상관관계 분석 - 서울시 전세보증사고를 중심으로

김진유 ( Kim Jin-yoo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2022 不動産學硏究 Vol.28 No.4

최근 전세보증금을 고의로 돌려주지 않는 전세사기가 사회문제가 되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 2020년 1월부터 2022년 6월까지의 전세 및 매매 실거래자료를 바탕으로 전세가율의 변화와 지역적 차이를 분석하였다. 또한 주택도시보증공사가 대위변제 자료를 이용하여 전세보증금을 반환하지 않은 전세사고의 추이와 주택유형별 특성 등을 분석하였다. 최종적으로는 전세가율과 전세사고간의 관계를 회귀분석을 통해 분석하였다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 전세가율이 높은 지역은 서울시 외곽으로서 대체로 저렴한 연립 · 다세대 주택의 비중이 높은 지역이다. 둘째, 전세보증금 미반환 사고는 주로 보증금 1억 원에서 3억 원 사이의 주택에서 집중적으로 발생한다. 셋째, 전세가율과 전세보증금 미반환 사고 간에는 높은 상관관계가 존재하고, 연립 · 다세대 비중이 높은 자치구에서 특히 전세사고가 많이 일어난다. 이러한 연구결과는 향후 전세사고를 감소시키기 위해서는 1억 원에서 3억 원 사이의 연립 · 다세대가 많은 지역을 집중적으로 관리할 필요가 있다는 점을 시사한다. This study aims at analyzing the relationship between Jeonse-to-Price Ratio (JPR) and Deposit Non-Return Risk (DNRR). Recently, Jeonse fraud, in which landlord intentionally does not return the Jeonse deposit, has become a social problem. In this study, the change and regional difference of JPR were analyzed based on the real transaction data of Jeonse and sales from January 2020 to June 2022 in Seoul. In addition, the trend of JGA was analyzed using subrogation data provided by the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG). Finally, the relationship between the JPR and JGA (abrogation) was analyzed through regression analysis. The analysis resuIts are summarized as follows. First, the areas with a high JPR are the outskirts of Seoul, where low-priced&multi-family houses make up majority. Second, the JGA mainly occurs in houses with deposits between 100 million won and 300 million won. Third, there is a high correlation between the JPR and JGA, and a lot of Jeonse Guarantee Accidents occur especially in the districts with a high proportion of multi-family houses. These research results suggest that in order to reduce DNRR in the future, it is necessary to intensively manage areas with many multi-family houses that are between 100 million won and 300 million won.