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우리나라 노년층의 해외여행 수요예측:인공신경망 모형을 이용하여
곽대진,송운강 한국관광학회 2007 관광학연구 Vol.31 No.6
Many experts forecast that Korea will be in an aged society soon. Due to this significant shift, the objectives of the study are as follows; firstly to explain the aging progress of Korea and academic interests for the last 18years, secondly to describe the structure and theory of Artificial Neural Network model, thirdly to forecast the tourism demand in Korean seniors for China and Japan, finally to give academic explanations to Korean tourism sector. The results identified three meaningful results. First, the study describe that the market for Korean elderly people would be important in the tourism study. The study also predicted the outbound travel demands and emphasize the trend for Korean senior citizen. The results provide base to produce useful strategies for the tourism industry such as tourism marketing and policy. Finally, the study identify that ANN model would improve the accuracy for Korea’s tourism demand study.핵심용어(Key words):노년층(Senior citizen),해외여행수요(Outbound tourism demands),인공신경망 모형(Artificial neural network),시계열(Time series)
곽대진,류환경 대한관광경영학회 2007 觀光硏究 Vol.21 No.4
본 연구의 목적은 개입변수에 따른 노년층 해외여행수요의 변화 논의, 그리고 미래 수요추정이다. 노년층 해외여행수요 추정은 IMF, SARS, 그리고 쓰나미를 개입요소로 채택한 시계열개입모형을 통해 이루어졌다. 그 결과 한국의 노년층 해외여행 수요 시장은 여행상품 수명주기를 근거로 볼 때, 이미 그 도입기를 지나 성장 초입부분에 위치한 것으로 보이며, 노년층의 해외여행에 대한 인식과 참여 또한 과거와는 달리 보다 활동적이고 적극적인 양상을 띠고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. The purpose of this study is to prospect the demand of seniors' outbound travel with an analysis of intervention that may affect. Time series Intervention model has selected to reach the goal and the adopted intervention factors are three of them as follow. First, IMF, the time of economic crisis of Korea, the first quarter of 1998, second, SARS, the second quarter of 2003, and third, tsunami, the first quarter of 2005. The result of analysis was found that Korean seniors' overseas travel market is on its moving to the growth after the introduction stage on the tourism product life cycle, positively and actively, different from the past.
곽대진 관광품질시스템학회 2000 관광품질시스템연구 Vol.6 No.1
The role of local festival is being important and vital element for local development these days. Some local governments are worry about their fical situation and decide that introduction of local festival to their people and country. In this study, Kangjin Celadon Cultural Festival is the research target. This study was peformed by inquiring the tourists visited the same festival and found that they have got five elements of expectation and satisfaction for it. Common expectation and satisfaction elements appeared. The educational effect of the festival is the most effective element of their expectation. Conditions of road & transportation to the festival spot, kindness of local people and educational effect of the festival are the common satisfaction elements. At the end, this study discovered that factors for tourists' needs and wants for the local festival by local governments holding essentials to make it prominent in competition between other local governments.
석션버켓을 기초로한 해양구조물의 시공(해상기상탑 및 해상풍력터빈)
곽대진(Kwag, Daejin),홍관영(Hong, Kwanyoung),이태환(Lee, Taehwan) 한국연안방재학회 2017 한국연안방재학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2017 No.-
최근 국내외로 해상풍력단지 개발이 확대되고 있는데, 국내의 경우 서남해와 제주도를 중심으로 해상기상탑과 해상풍력터빈이 다수 설치되고 있다. 특히 기초 내외부의 수압차를 이용하여 무소음, 무진동으로 기초를 관입하는 개념의 석션버켓 기초는 해상공사의 경제성과 친환경성 측면에서 주목 받으면서 해상기상탑과 해상풍력터빈에 적용을 점차 확대해 나가고 있다.
이계희,곽대진 한국전산구조공학회 2022 한국전산구조공학회논문집 Vol.35 No.2
The collision behaviors of the tripod and jacket structures, which are considered as support structures for offshore wind towers at theSouthwest sea of Korea, were compared by nonlinear dynamic analysis. These structures, designed for the 3 MW capacity of the wind towers,were modeled using shell elements with nonlinear behaviors, and the tower structure including the nacelle, was modeled by beam and masselements with elastic materials. The mass of the tripod structure was approximately 1.66 times that of the jacket structure. A barge andcommercial ship were modeled as the collision vessel. To consider the tidal conditions in the region, the collision levels were varied from –3.5m to 3.5 m of the mean sea level. In addition, the collision behaviors were evaluated as increasing the minimum collision energy at the collisionspeed (=2.6 m/s) of each vessel by four times, respectively. Accordingly, the plastic energy dissipation ratios of the vessel were increased asthe stiffness of collision region. The deformations in the wind tower occurred from vibration to collapse of conditions. The tripod structuredemonstrated more collision resistance than the jacket structure. This is considered to be due to the concentrated centralized rigidity andamount of steel utilized. 본 논문에서는 한국의 서남해상에 건설예정인 해상풍력발전타워의 지지구조물로 고려되고 있는 세발구조와 자켓구조의 선박충돌 거동을 비선형동적해석을 통하여 비교‧분석하였다. 이 구조물은 3MW용량의 풍력타워를 지지하기 위하여 설계되었다. 두 지지구조는 쉘요소를 이용하여 비선형 거동을 고려할 수 있도록 모델링하였고, 발전기를 포함하는 상부의 타워구조물은 탄성재료를 이용하여 보요소와 집중질량으로 모델링하였다. 전체 질량은 세발구조가 자켓구조에 비하여 약 1.66배 정도였다. 바지선과 상선을 충돌선박으로 선정하여 모델링하였다. 조수차의 조건을 고려하여 충돌선박의 충돌위치를 평균해수면의 상하로 3.5m변동하는 것으로 고려하였다. 또한 각 선박의 최소충돌속도(=2.6m/s)에서의 충돌에너지를 각각 4배까지 증가시키면서 충돌거동을 산정하였다. 해석결과 지지구조 충돌부위의 강성이 클수록 선박의 소성에너지 소산량이 상대적으로 증가하였다. 충돌조건에 따라 풍력타워의 변형은 진동에서 붕괴까지 발생하였다. 세발구조가 자켓구조에 비하여 큰 충돌저항력을 보였다. 이는 중앙부에 강성이 집중된 구조적 특성과 상대적으로 많은 강재의 사용량에 기인한 것으로 판단된다.
해상풍력 구조물 설치 단계별 현장 동특성 분석을 통한 트라이포드 석션기초 적용성 검증
유무성,이준신,곽대진,서윤호 한국풍력에너지학회 2019 풍력에너지저널 Vol.10 No.3
This paper presents the installation procedure for an offshore wind turbine that has a suction bucket as its foundation. It also deals with the evaluation of dynamic characteristics at each installation stage by measuring the natural frequency of that system. Most previous studies mainly focused on the final natural frequency of the wind turbine after all support structures are installed. Consequently, those studies only checked whether this natural frequency could avoid resonance. However, this study checked the natural frequency of the system at each installation stage, which enabled the verification of governing factors of excitation such as waves, currents, wind and the system itself at each stage. From the field test data, it was found that the boat impact method gave a good excitation force, and this could be used for validating the integrity of offshore support structures such as oil and gas platforms. The test results also showed that the discrepancy in natural frequency between field data and analysis data is only 1.5%. This proves that the numerical analysis model is reliable and the wind turbine system was safely installed. This study will be helpful to design offshore wind turbine support structures and check the reliability of the numerical analysis model of offshore wind turbines.