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아시아 외환보유고 축적이 유로 금융시장에 미치는 경제적 효과 분석
박광수,유상희,김태완 한국유럽학회 2007 유럽연구 Vol.25 No.1
This paper analyzed the economic effects of the Asian countries' foreign reserve accumulation. We investigated main drivers of the recent reserve accumulation. The drivers are precautionary motives, the global saving glut and management of exchange rates, etc. We also empirically analyzed the impact of reserve accumulation on the Euro financial markets by employing VAR(Vector Autoregressive) model and VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). The significant results of this empirical analysis are as follows. First, we found the Asian countries' foreign reserve accumulation significantly made Euro currency strong. It reflects the fact that the Asian countries' foreign reserve accumulation means not only the abundance of US dollars but also the increased demand of Euro currency. Second, we also found that the Asian countries' foreign reserve accumulation lowered long term interest rate. It implies that Asian countries' central banks have contributed to the stability of US long term interest rates by purchasing US treasuries, which has lowered international interest rates including Euro interest rates. Key Words(주제어): 외환보유고(Foreign Reserve), 유로금융시장(Euro Financial Markets), 벡터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model), 충격반응함수(Impulse Response Function), 분산분해(Variance Decomposition) 攀 * 본 논문은 2006년도 동의대학교 교내연구비지원(과제번호 2006AA058)에 의해 이루어졌음