북방영토에 대한 일본정책

최태강 ( Tai Kang Choi ) 한국외국어대학교 외국학종합연구센터 러시아연구소 2002 슬라브연구 Vol.18 No.2

메드베데프 대통령의 분쟁섬 구나시리방문 이후 러-일관계 변화

최태강(Choi Tai Kang) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2011 슬라브학보 Vol.26 No.2

Russia shows signs of change in the Russian policy toward Japan. Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev requires fundamental change to Japanese side in foreign policy connected with the territorial dispute(Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and Habomai islets). In a way, Russia indicates changes in the approach of economic, security sides, and territorial issue on the territorial dispute. In the economic case, Russia carries out policies connected with the regional development to modernize the Russian Far East including the disputed territory. In the security case, Russia seeks security profit to increase the military power of the islands. In the territorial issue, Russia tries to strengthen practical rule toward the 4 disputed islands which are controled by Russia over 65 years after Japanese defeat at the Second World War. This paper is examining the change of Russian-Japanese Relations in several aspects after Medvedev’s visit to Kunashiri, one of the disputed territories. First, I will examine some events before the visit, and goals of the visit. Second, I will show that Russian government is taking any measures for the consolidating of practical rule in the economic and security aspects on the disputed territories. Third, are there any changes in approaching method toward the territorial issue of Russian government? Forth, what is the difficult point of improvement between the ties under Medvedev regime? Finally, I will analyze the importance of the cooperative ties and suggest an reasonable solution of the territorial issue between Russia and Japan.

2003년 12월 러시아 두마(하원) 선거 분석

최태강 ( Tai Kang Choi ) 한국외국어대학교 외국학종합연구센터 러시아연구소 2004 슬라브연구 Vol.20 No.1

제3기 푸틴정부의 동북아 정책

최태강(崔台崗)(CHOI Tai-Kang) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2012 신아세아 Vol.19 No.3

2012년 9월 러시아 극동 블라디보스토크에서 열리는 APEC 정상회담을 통해 러시아는 동시베리아와 러시아 극동지역의 발전을 위해 아-태지역 국가들의 협력을 적극적으로 얻으려고 한다. 이 지역에서 세계경제의 일원으로 러시아의 본격적인 참여를 통해 국력을 향상시키는데 목표를 둘 것이다. 중국의 부상으로 동북아지역을 둘러싼 중국과 일본의 세력균형을 중시하는 현실주의적인 정책을 펼칠 것이다. 러시아의 대중, 대일정책은 경제를 중심으로 협력관계를 발전시켜 나갈 것이다. 특히 푸틴은 이들 두 국가와 사이에 에너지 분야 협력을 중시할 것으로 보인다. 푸틴 집권3기 러시아의 한반도정책은 큰 변화가 없을 것으로 전망된다. 푸틴 집권 1기, 2기(2000∼2008)기간 동안 추진한 남북한 어느 한쪽에 치우치지 않는 균형외교의 기본원칙을 이어 받을 것이다. 러시아는 한반도의 불안정을 원치 않기 때문에 이 지역의 안정을 위해 한반도문제에 적극적인 관여를 할 것으로 보인다. 특히 핵문제와 장거리 미사일 개발을 통한 강성대국노선을 유지하는 한, 북한 김정일사후 3대 권력을 계승한 김정은 체제는 동북아의 국제질서에 상당히 불안정 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 따라서 한반도의 안정을 유지하는데 조정자역할로서 러시아는 기존의 남북한 균형정책과 한반도의 평화유지 정책을 다할 것이며, 중국과 협조하여 남북한간 직접대화를 할 수 있도록 도울 것이며, 북핵문제 조속한 해결을 위한 6자회담 재개에 노력할 것으로 보인다. 본 논문에서는 푸틴집권 3기를 맞이하여 러시아의 동북아정책(중국, 일본, 한반도)을 어떻게 펼치게 될 것인지 최근의 정치, 경제, 안보관계를 살펴보면서, 집권 6년동안 러시아의 중국, 일본, 한반도에 대한 정책을 전망해 보고자 한다. Through APEC Summit in Vladivostok in September 2012 Russia is expected to get the cooperation of Asia-Pacific countries for the development of East Siberia and Russian Far East region and will have the goal to develop the national power from actively participation as a member of world economy in the region. Russia will carry out the realistic policy focused on the balance of power between China and Japan of Northeast Asia region due to the emerging China. Putin’s policy towards China and Japan will develop the cooperation relation on an axis of economy. Particularly, He will attach importance to the cooperation of energy with the two countries. After Putin’s return to presidency, Russia’s policy towards Korean Peninsula is no observable change in the main line. He will continually seek to the basic principle of balanced diplomacy towards South and North Korea which was maintained a balance approach during the Putin’s regime era(2000∼2008). Russia is expected to be involved in a positive engagement of the issue of Korean peninsula for the stability of the region. Because Russia does not want an unstability of the Korean peninsula. Particularly, after inheriting power his father Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-eun regime can negatively affect on the issue such as regional security of Northeast Asia. Therefore, as a mediator, Russia will carry on peace policy based on balanced policy towards the Korean Peninsula. This paper will be prospected the Russian policy towards Northeast Asia(China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula) as analyzing the recently political, economic and security relations with the countries before and after starting the third Putin regime in May 2012.

2008년 러시아 대통령선거와 푸틴의 선택

최태강(Choi Tai-Kang) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2006 슬라브학보 Vol.21 No.1

Preparations for the Russian presidential election of 2008 are in full swing already. The present Russian president Vladimir Putin confirmed that he will not run for president in 2008. He always emphasizes that his main priority is to ensure stability and observe the law. According to the Russian Constitution the president can be elected for not more than two terms in succession. If so, Putin cannot stay on past 2008. But governors and regional legislators are intent on sacrificing the Constitution for the sake of keeping Putin in power. The main criteria for choosing Putin's successor will be the following. The successor should be a weak figure who doesn't have enough resources to start playing his own game later, and will therefore be very loyal. Putin needs also a person who doesn't have a team of his own, and who is not influenced by any financial groups. There will be two possible scenarios. The first seems hypothetical, since it could be a catalyst rather than a resolution in a tense situation. This would involve, for example, early parliamentary elections and a change in the political system to emphasize the government. The scenarios generating continual rumors about a party-aligned president, a presidential prime minister, or the need for Putin to stay on as Russia's leading political figure after 2008. And Putin would only agree to some form of third term scenario if there's a drastic change in the political situation - for either better or worse. Putin could face pressure to stay on for a third term, from those who have an interest in that. The second scenario involves the search for a worthy successor - and rumor has it that such a search is well under way. This scenario could also bring many surprises. In Russia, after all, things often work out that way. Now Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov have been given a chance for Putin's successor to take advantage of the improved state financial situation to solve all the problems concerned with carrying out the president's tasks and the reform of the military, and in this way, to earn political points. By promoting Medvedev and Ivanov to top Cabinet posts, Putin is testing them as possible presidential candidates. In sum. What is President Putin really like? Only Putin himself knows that. The rest of us will find out in 2008.

Putin’s Foreign Policy towards Japan(2000-2008) - The Issue of Territorial Dispute : 푸틴의 대일본 외교정책(2000-2008): 영토문제를 중심으로

CHOI Tai-Kang(최태강) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2008 신아세아 Vol.15 No.2

이 논문은 푸틴시대 일본과 영토문제에 대한 러시아의 정책을 분석한 것이다. 러시아와 일본은 푸틴 집권기간 동안 영토 분쟁에 있어 서로 입장차이를 좁히는데 실패했다. 러시아의 정책은 영토 문제에 대해 일반적인 접근방법에 있어 변화하지 않았다. 일본의 기본 목표도 영토문제에 접근하는데 있어 자신들의 입장을 유지했다. 양국은 서로 이익의 균형에 입각한 합리적 타협안을 찾지 못했다. 이것은 조만간 이 문제를 해결한다는 것은 매우 어렵다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 본 논문는 양국간 영토분쟁을 해결하는 하나의 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 첫째, 어떤 영토협상도 장기전략을 토대로 문제를 풀어 나아가야 한다. 점진적으로 이 문제를 해결하는 것이 현실적인 접근방법이다. 양국은 서로 이익을 볼 수 있는 방법으로 협상이 추진된다면 영토문제에 진전이 있을 것이다. 둘째, 양국은 상호 신뢰를 구축하는 노력을 지속적으로 추구해야 한다. 셋째, 양국은 영토문제에 좀 더 건설적인 접근방법을 채택해야 하고, 상호 양보를 위한 준비도 되어 있음을 보여주어야 한다. 마지막으로 외교협상에서 인내는 영토문제를 해결하기 위한 양국간 협상과정에서 여전히 지금도 유효한 것이다. This paper examines Russia"s policy towards the territorial issue with Japan during the Putin Era(2000-2008). Both states have failed to narrow differences over the disputes during the Putin regime. Russia"s policy did not change the general attitude towards the territorial issue. Japan"s basic goal also remained unchanged. Both sides did not find a reasonable compromise on the basis of a balance of bilateral interests. That means it is very difficult to resolve the issue in the near future. Thus, I would like to suggest a way of settling the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan. First, any territorial negotiations must be based on long-term strategies. Gradualism represents a realistic approach, they will only make progress in the territorial disputes if they do so in a way that benefits both countries. Second, they must persist in efforts to build mutual trust. Third, they should adopt a more constructive attitude to the territorial problem and show readiness for mutual concessions. Finally, patience in diplomatic negotiations is still valid today in the process of negotiation between Japan and Russia for resolving the territorial dispute.

Sino-Russian Military Relations since 2000

최태강(CHOI Tai-Kang)(崔台崗) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2011 신아세아 Vol.18 No.2

현재 중국의 군사력은 동아시아의 군사균형에 변화를 초래하는데 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 그러므로 장기적으로 러시아는 중국의 강한 군사력을 견제하기위해 일본과 협력을 필요로 하고 있다. 게다가 러시아는 또한 이 지역에서 안보와 안정의 중요한 보장자로서 미국의 역할을 보고 있다. 단기적으로 러시아는 여전히 이 지역에서 미국에 대한 전략적 균형을 유지하는데 한 세력으로서 중국을 필요로 하고 있다. 그러므로 러시아는 지역 안정을 위해 허용된 범위 내에서 중국에 군사적 도움을 주고 있다. 본 글에서는 중ㆍ러 양국의 군사협력관계를 다음 몇 가지를 중심으로 논하고자 한다. 첫째, 동아시아에 대한 러시아와 중국의 대외전략은 무엇인지; 둘째, 양국 무기교역은 어떻게 추진되고 있는지; 셋째, 군사협력관계의 과제는 어떤 것들이 있는지, 마지막으로, 향후 양국 협력관계는 어떻게 발전할 것인지 살펴보고자 한다. China’s present military capabilities will play a major role in bringing change to the military balance of East Asia. Therefore, in the long term, Russia needs the cooperation with Japan to curb a strong military power, China. Besides, Russia also sees the role of the U.S. as an important guarantor of security and stability in this region. In the short term, Russia still needs China as a power to keep a strategic balance against America. Therefore, Russia gives military assistance to China within the permitted limit for regional stability. This paper focuses on the Sino-Russian military relations since 2000. The first section outlines the strategy of Russia and China towards East Asia. The second section looks at the arms trade between Russia and China. The third section analyzes the problem of military cooperation between the two countries. The final section evaluates the prospect of their military cooperation.

소-일 관계 정상화 과정 분석

최태강(Choi, Tai-kang) 국방부 군사편찬연구소 2012 군사 Vol.- No.85

This paper focuses on the three aspects not only in political changes of the Soviet Union and Japan but also in the change of international situation. First, since World War II, both governments did not have official exchanges for ten years. However, they tried to resume their foreign relation. This paper shows why they tried to improve and resume the foreign relation. Second, they restored diplomatic relations through four negotiations, but the peace treaty was not signed due to discord of resolving the territorial dispute. Thus, I will examine why they did not find the compromise to resolve the territorial issue between them. Third, the issue is related to East Asia security strategy. At that time, the normalization between the Soviet Union and Japan through resolution of territorial issue is a major problem to have a strong influence on the strategic interestand to expand the eopolitical influence of the U.S. in Northeast Asia. Thus, the influence of the U.S. will have been the critical factor in the conclusion of the peace treaty and in resolution of the territorial issue. So I will also analyze that there were the U.S. changes of stance on the territorial dispute and the U.S. exerted their influence in the process of Soviet-Japanese negotiation. Finally, I will examine the implication in solving the territorial issue between the present Russian-Japanese governments which was given to them through the joint statement in 1956.

1996년 러시아 대통령선거의 평가 : 지역별로 본 후보와 유권자

최태강(Tai-Kang Choi) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 1997 슬라브학보 Vol.12 No.1

러시아와 일본의 쿠릴섬 문제

崔台崗(Choi, Tai-kang) 국방부 군사편찬연구소 2010 군사 Vol.- No.74