신뢰성 해석기법을 이용한 배추 가격 예측 모형의 개발

서교,김태곤,이정재,Suh, Kyo,Kim, Tae-Gon,Lee, Jeong-Jae 한국농공학회 2008 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.50 No.3

Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.

Nikkei225 옵션시장의 가격결정커널에 관한 연구

류두진 ( Doo Jin Ryu ) 한국경영공학회 2012 한국경영공학회지 Vol.17 No.2

This study examines the pricing kernels implied by the Nikkei225 index and option prices. Following Rosenberg and Engle(2002), based on the two specifications of the pricing kernels (one is the power pricing kernel and another is the polynomial pricing kernel), we estimate the empirical pricing kernels that successfully explain the price dynamics of the Nikkei225 options. We find some interesting results in the Japanese financial market. First, the power pricing kernel generally decreases with the underlying Nikkei225 index returns, which shows stark contrasts with the results in the S&P500 (U.S.) options market. Second, the time-varying pricing kernels generally outperform the time-invariant pricing kernels in explaining the dynamics of the Nikkei225 option prices, but this does not hold when pricing ITM options which are not actively traded. Third, the (time-varying) polynomial pricing kernel, which has more complicate and flexible functional structure than the (time-varying) power pricing kernel, shows better pricing performance. Considering that there is little research on the Nikkei225 options and there is not a single published article that investigates the pricing kernels in the Japanese options market, this study can be a stepping stone for the future research.

KOSPI200 추적 ETF의 가격효율성과 그 결정요인에 관한 연구

서기수,엄윤성 한국기업경영학회 2019 기업경영연구 Vol.26 No.5

This paper examines Through the analysis of the relationship between the tracking error, price error, separation rate and fund characteristic factors and market characteristic factors of the KOSPI200 Tracking ETF from 14 October 2002 to 1 June 2017, this study studied the factors affecting price efficiency through the verification of the price efficiency of ETF and the regression analysis between its determinants. The tracking error is defined as the difference between NAV and benchmark, and the price differential rate is defined as the discount or premium between NAV and ETF price. By analyzing the existence and sustainability of tracking errors in domestic ETFs, the results of looking at price efficiency are as follows. First, the KOSPI200 tracking ETF outperforms the KOSPI200, and ETFs tend to be undervalued compared to NAVs. Second, the undervaluation of the ETF is also confirmed in the ETF price error analysis. Price errors have been declining with the recent trend, but still has negative values which ​​suggests that the ETF price is lower than NAVs. Third, the price differential rate, which is the absolute value of the price error, has been confirmed to be about 1%, and has been decreasing recently. The magnitude of the price differential rate across ETFs is similarly observed for each year, confirming that no particular ETF tends to move differently from other ETFs. Finally, the analysis of the factors affecting the price error and the price differential rate reveals that the ETF volatility has a significant negative effect on the price error. Meanwhile, the price differential rate, a proxy for ETF price efficiency, is negatively correlated with the ETF net asset value and the ETF return, and is positively correlated with the volatility. Thus, the study can confirm that the factors affecting the price efficiency of the ETF are the net asset value of the fund, the volatility, and the return of ETF. 본 연구는 2002년 10월 14일부터 2017년 6월 1일까지의 KOSPI200 추적 ETF의 추적오차, 가격오차, 괴리율과 펀드특성 요인 및 시장특성 요인과의 관계에 대한 분석을 통해 ETF의 가격효율성을 검증하고, 가격효율성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 간략하게 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, KOSPI200 추적 ETF가 KOSPI200 대비 소폭의 초과성과를 보였고, ETF는 NAV대비 저평가되는 경향이 보였다. 둘째, ETF 가격오차 분석에서도 ETF 저평가 현상을 확인하였다. 가격오차는 시간이 경과할수록 줄어들고 있지만 여전히 음(-)의 값을 보여 ETF 저평가 현상은 최근에도 지속되고 있다. 셋째, 가격오차의 절대값인 괴리율은 대략 1% 수준으로 확인되었고, 최근에 괴리율은 점점 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 전체 ETF의 괴리율의 크기는 연도별로 유사하게 관측되어, 특정 ETF가 다른 ETF와 다르게 움직이는 경향은 없는 것으로 확인되었다. 마지막으로, 가격오차와 괴리율에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한 결과 ETF 변동성이 가격오차에 유의하게 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 한편 ETF 가격효율성의 대용치인 괴리율은 ETF 순자산 총액과 ETF 수익률과 음(-)의 관계를 보였고, 변동성과는 양(+)의 관계를 보였다. 따라서 ETF의 가격효율성에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 펀드 특성인 순자산가치와 시장요인인 변동성과 수익률임을 본 연구에서 확인할 수 있다.

수입농산물 가격이 국산농산물 가격에 미치는 영향분석: 가락농수산물도매시장을 중심으로

이정희,김윤두 한국유통경영학회 2022 유통경영학회지 Vol.25 No.5

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out how the price change of imported agricultural products in the agricultural wholesale market affects the price of domestic agricultural products by analyzing the transition effect. Research design, data, and methodology: The price transfer effect was analyzed through the NARDL model by selecting "carrot", "pumpkin", "onion", "garlic", "cabbage", and "broccoli", which are imported agricultural products in Garak Agricultural and Fishery Wholesale Market that plays a pivotal role in the distribution of agricultural products in Korea. Results: Except for the short-term price transition of "cabbage", it was confirmed that the price of domestic agricultural products rises due to the price of imported agricultural products in the long-term and short-term price transition of all items. The estimated coefficient was more than 3% of a positive(+) asymmetric price transfer In the long-term price transfer of ‘carrot’ and ‘broccoli’. This phenomenon was found that imported products is leading the price more than half of the transaction volume of the item and serves as a replacement for domestic products. Implications: There have been many opinions that imports of agricultural products are inevitable due to unstable supply and demand of domestic agricultural products, and so far the increase in imported agricultural products has a negative i mp act on domestic producers due to a decline in price of whole agricultural products. As a result of the analysis, the impact of the price shock on domestic agricultural product was insignificant, and based on this, it is necessary to recognize that it is a realistic plan to secure the absolute amount required in Korea rather than looking at imports with only a negative perspective.

가격에 대한 시각의 역사적 변화 고찰: 신고전학파의 관점에서

김윤식 ( Yun-shim Kim ) 한국농업경제학회 2020 農業經濟硏究 Vol.61 No.4

The price itself has always been in the markets for centuries. However, the perspectives of what price is and how price is determined have been changed for hundreds of years to date. Adam Smith raised the question of the difference in price of water and diamond by introducing the concepts of value in use and value in exchange. David Ricardo explained the difference in price by the difference in labor needed to produce each product. This kind of perspective of price, however, has changed fundamentally when the Marginal Revolution took place in the 19th century. The Marginal Revolution has brought two new concepts to economics: marginality and utility. The average in economics has been soon replaced with the marginality and the introduction of utility has provided the theoretical background of demand by stressing on human desire in price. Alfred Marshall has also applied the marginality to production and completed the two blades of scissors, that is, demand and supply of market. The contribution of Keynes to the perspectives of price is that under some circumstances price cannot operate appropriately, in particular by showing that the downward rigidity in nominal wage in labor market took place in recession. The behavioral economists joined the mainstream of economics by casting doubts to the rationality assumption of consumers. However, they have not succeeded in providing a new perspective of price because price cannot be derived if the rationality in preference is not assumed. This paper is designed to review the perspectives of price by economists and to show that the current perspectives are not invariable, so the interpretations and roles of price can be changed at any time.

동아시아 지역의 선박연료유 가격선도성 연구

최문성 한국통상정보학회 2023 통상정보연구 Vol.25 No.3

This study analyzes the presence of price leadership of marine fuel oil market(Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) in the East Asia using cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) and examine to determine whether the prices of marine fuel oil are set based on international oil prices. As a result of the analysis, cointegration relationships exist among marine fuel oil prices in the East Asia. Results of a weak exogeneity test to examine long-run price leadership show that the marine fuel price of Singapore lead the prices among ports in East Asia in the long-run, and when Dubai international oil prices are included, Dubai oil price leads the prices of fuel oil markets in East Asia. Results of the Granger causality show that Korea-Japan and Japan-Hong Kong have a two-way causality, resulting in short-run price competition between them. When including the Dubai oil price, it was found that the Dubai oil price unilaterally affects the marine fuel prices of all ports in East Asia in the short-run.

패밀리 레스토랑의 가격 전략 수립을 위한 가격민감성 분석 가례 연구

최미경,이봉식 대한지역사회영양학회 2006 대한지역사회영양학회지 Vol.11 No.2

The purpose of this study was to suggest menu pricing strategy based on understanding about customer perceived value of products and services. The technique known as PSM (Price Sensitivity Measurement) was used for analysis of price sensitivity for 3 menu items of a family restaurant in Seoul. A questionnaire was developed through literature review and modified after pilot test. Questionnaires for the main survey were distributed to 250 customers on their visit to the restaurant, and a total of 138 questionnaires were used for analysis (55.2%). The statistical analysis of price sensitivity was conducted using PSM, and descriptive analyses were conducted using SPSS Win (12.0). The main results of this study were as follows: the price sensitivity of beef tenderloin steak was higher than two other menus and the stress range of teriyaki chicken was almost 0, that is, the price sensitivity of teriyaki chicken was very low. Present menu prices of 3 menu items were within the range of acceptable prices, but had some distances from the optimal pricing point. From the result of this study, it was concluded that price adjustment or price promotion strategy would be effective for increase in sales of beef tenderloin steak, and marketing strategies to enhance consumers’ perceptions of value should be conducted for all menu items by situations. Overall, PSM technique could be a helpful tool for researchers and managers of foodservice organizations to understand how consumers’ perceptions of value are affected by the interaction of price and quality. (Korean J Community Nutrition 11(2) : 253 ~ 260, 2006)

The Price Elasticity on Alcoholic Beverages in Korea

김다윗,윤미은,김미경,성우림,천성수 알코올과 건강행동학회 2015 알코올과 건강행동연구 Vol.16 No.1

Objectives: The aims of this study were to analyze the price elasticity on alcoholic beverages’ consumption and figure out the consumption pattern and its changes in Korea from 1997 to 2010 for using the official data relating alcohol consumption and its’ price. Methods: The alcohol 'unit' price of each type of alcoholic beverage in each year from 1997 to 2010 was extracted and its price inflation was compared with the consumer price inflation. Also, alcohol consumption of each type of beverage was calculated to see any changes over the years. Finally, the price elasticity of each alcoholic beverage was calculated to see the effect of the price changes on the alcoholic beverages’ consumption rate. Results: The price inflation rate from 1997 to 2010 was 3.682% for soju, 4.584% for wine, 1.887% for beer, and –1.48% for spirit and whisky and other similar kinds. The consumption rate decreased for soju 3611g (83%), but it was increased for beer 558g (120%), for spirit and whisky kinds 358g (208%), and for wine 107g (396%). The price elasticity of soju as –0.112, and beer as –0.153 showed that there is no significant effect of the price on the consumption rate, but the spirit and whisky kinds displayed as 1.840, wine 1.457, did show significant effect. Conclusion: From 1997 to 2010, the price inflation of alcoholic beverages was higher than the consumer price inflation. Of the total alcoholic beverage consumption, soju consumption was the highest with 60%. Especially, the phenomenon of producing lower alcoholic content liquor from 2006 caused a decrease in the total alcohol consumption. This means that the alcoholic beverage consumption of the drinkers(ℓ) remained the same, but only the unit consumption(g) has decreased. Thus, the decrease in the total unit alcohol consumption is not caused by the changes in consumption patterns of the drinkers. The price elasticity shows that the price does not have an effect on the drinking patterns. This may mean that the price of alcoholic beverages in Korea is still too cheap that it does not have a significant effect on the consumption pattern.

온라인 시장의 가격수용성에 관한 연구: 가격의식과 상품관여도의 영향을 중심으로

이형재,정의석 한국고객만족경영학회 2007 고객만족경영연구 Vol.9 No.3

For implementing differentiated pricing in online marketplaces, firms should know how level of and latitude of acceptable price are determined by online customers. Price acceptability in the online market may be influenced by price consciousness, product involvement. If customers don't have enough knowledge about products, quality may be inferred positively through price and level of acceptable price would be changed. In online markets, customers easily price information and non-price information on products without large costs. This study analyzes the effects of price consciousness and product involvement on the price acceptability.The results of an empirical study imply that for online purchases, product involvement has a positive effect on the level and latitude of acceptable price. Price consciousness has also a negative effect on level and latitude of acceptable price. 차별화된 가격정책을 펴기 위해서는 우선적으로 소비자들이 온라인 상점에서 지각하는 가격수용수준(level of acceptable price)과 가격수용영역(latitude of acceptable price)이 어떻게 형성되며, 어느 정도의 수준에서 형성되는지 이해하는 것이 필수적일 것이다. 소비자가 지각하는 가격수용수준과 가격수용영역은 가격의식(price consciousness), 제품관여도(product involvement)의 영향에 의해서 변화한다. 하지만 제품의 가격에 대한 정보와 비가격 정보를 적은 노력을 통해 손쉽게 탐색할 수 있는 온라인 환경에서의 소비자의 가격수용수준과 가격수용영역은 기존의 연구결과와는 조금 다르게 나타났다. 온라인 상점에서 소비자의 가격수용수준과 가격수용영역에 영향을 미치는 가격지각과 제품관여도의 관계를 분석하였다. 연구의 결과를 통해서 온라인 상점에서 제품을 구매할 때 제품관여도는 소비자의 가격수용수준과 가격수용영역에 양의 영향을 미치는 반면에 가격의식은 가격수용수준과 가격수용영역에 부의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

SPA 브랜드의 글로벌 가격 전략: 국민소득 및 빅맥지수와의 비교

김서정 ( Seo Jeong Kim ),이지연 ( Ji Yeon Lee ),이규혜 ( Kyu Hye Lee ) 한국의류산업학회 2016 한국의류산업학회지 Vol.18 No.3

Due to the dramatic increase in consumers’ price sensitivity and growing importance for global retailers to create relevant price strategies, this study investigates the global pricing strategy of the main SPA brands such as ZARA, H&M and UNIQLO. Based on price information shown on official website, the study developed SPA brand index by using exchange rates in terms of US dollars and ratio of differences between the local price and the US price. These figures were compared with GDP per person data in order to analyze each brand’s price level against the income level. The study also compared SPA brand index with Big Mac index to identify the difference in price levels between the fast fashion market and the fast food market. ZARA and H&M were mostly targeting Middle East and Asia as a high-price market when considering index only. After taking the income level into account, however, Asia came out be the highest price market and Middle East was similar to the US market. On the other hand, UNIQLO targeted Asia as the lowest price market and the US and EU as the highest in terms of index only. But, Asia came out to be the highest price zone after considering the income level while the price of the US and EU was reasonable. Comparison with Big Mac Index indicated that most of Asia had a higher price level of the fashion market than the food market, whereas most European countries had a similar or high-price level of food market.