초등학생의 합리적 선택 - GARP와 합리성 -

한진수 ( Jinsoo Hahn ) 한국경제교육학회 2015 경제교육연구 Vol.22 No.2

현시 선호 이론의 개발에 힘입어 주어진 예산과 가격 조건 하에서 소비자가 스스로 드러낸 선호를 가지고 만족을 극대화하는 선택을 했는지의 여부를 판정할 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 초등학생들이 실제로 선택한 결과가 현시 선호의 일반화 공리(GARP)를 충족하는지의 여부를 통해 선택의 합리성 여부를 조사한다. 이 목적을 위해 초등학생 수준에 맞게 4개의 예산선과 2개 재화로 구성된 선택 상황을 제시한 후 2, 5, 6학년 학생들에게 의사결정을 요구하는 경제 실험을 실행한 결과, 비교적 단순한 상황이기는 하지만 초등학교 2학년생의 61% 정도가 합리적으로 재화 조합을 선택했으며 학년이 높아질수록 합리적으로 선택하는 학생 비율도 증가해 6학년은 74%가 합리성을 보여주었다. 물론 이 비율은 대학생의 95%에 비해 현저하게 낮아 합리성이 초등학생 단계에서 충분하게 발달하지 않고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 남학생보다 여학생의 비합리적 선택 비율이 높은 경향이 있었지만 통계적으로 유의한 차이는 아니었다. 마지막으로 GARP 위반 건수를 기준으로 가산 자료 모형을 추정한 결과 여학생의 선택이 GARP를 위반하게 될 확률이 남학생에 비해 높았다. Revealed preference theory enables us to test rationality of a consumer by using choice data given budget and price. This study investigates whether choices by Korean elementary school students satisfy the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP). For this purpose, the students were presented with choice sets including between 4 and 7 bundles. Each bundle contained only 2 commodities in 4 different budget/price situations. Experimental results showed that a significant portion of three age groups chose rationally and that the percentage of subjects violating GARP significantly decreased from grade 2 to 5, and further decreased from grade 5 to 6. Gender difference in rationality of children was not found, but estimation using the count data model with Poisson distribution revealed that the choice by female students has higher probability to violate GARP than that by male.

고라니 서식지 분석을 위한 기계학습식 종분포모형 비교

송원경 ( Won Kyong Song ),김은영 ( Eun Young Kim ) 대한원격탐사학회 2012 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.28 No.1

야생동식물 서식지 보전 연구는 통합적인 생물다양성 관리 전략으로서 주목받고 있다. 국내 종조사자료 및 환경공간정보 여건을 고려할 때 종출현정보에 최적화된 것으로 알려져 있는 GARP 모형과 Maxent 모형이 서식지 분석에 가장 적합한 것으로 판단된다. 국내 적용가능성을 확인하기 위해 충청도 삽교천 일원을 대상으로 고라니( Hydropotes inermis argyropus)에 대한 기계학습식 모형을 적용하였다. 종출현지점은 3차 전국자연환경조사, 환경변수는 문헌조사를 통해 10개를 도출하였다. 분석 결과 Maxent 모형과 GARP 모형은 각각 전체 면적의 16.3%, 27.1%를 고라니 서식지로 예측하였다. 종분포모형 정확도(훈련/검증)는 Maxent 모형(0.85/0.69)이 GARP 모형(0.65/0.61)보다 높게 분석되고 Spearman 순위 상관계수 역시 Maxent 모형(r=0.71, p<0.01)이 GARP 모형(r=0.55, p<0.05)보다 높게 분석되었다. 이는 대상지의 특성과 대상종에 따라 달라질 수 있으므로 상황에 따라 적절한 모형을 적용하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. The field of wildlife habitat conservation research has attracted attention as integrated biodiversity management strategies. Considering the status of the species surveying data and the environmental variables in Korea, the GARP and Maxent models optimized for presence-only data could be one of the most suitable models in habitat modeling. For make sure applicability in the domestic environment we applied the machine learning species distribution model for analyzing habitats of the Korea water deer (Hydropotes inermis argyropus) in the Sapgyocheon watershed, Chungcheong province. We used the 3rd National Natural Environment Survey data and 10 environment variables by literature review for the modelling. Analysis results showed that habitats for the Korea water deer were predicted 16.3% (Maxent) and 27.1% (GARP), respectively. In terms of accuracy (training/test) the Maxent (0.85/0.69) was higher than the GARP (0.65/0.61), and the Spearman`s rank correlation coefficient result of the Maxent(r=0.71, p<0.01) was higher than the result of GARP(r=0.55, p<0.05). However results could be depended on sites and target species, therefore selection of the appropriate model considering on the situation will be important to analyzing habitats.

GARP 모형과 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 잣나무의 지리적 분포 변화

천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),이창배 ( Chang Bae Lee ),유소민 ( So Min Yoo ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

본 연구는 그간 우리나라에서 경제적인 가치를 인정 받아온 수종인 잣나무를 대상으로 잣나무의 현존 분포를 파악하고, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 기후변화 시나리오와 생태적 지위 모형에 기반하여 향후 잣나무의 분포 변화를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 이를 위해 5년간의 NFI 자료에서 조사지점별 잣나무의 풍부도 자료를 추출하여 사용하였으며, 수종에 영향을 미치는 환경요인변수를 선정하기 위해 생태적지위 모형 가운데 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production)를 이용하였다. 총 27개의 환경요인변수에 대해 각각 모형을 구동하고 컨퓨전 매트릭스(Confusion Matrix) 기반 산출 통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)가 0.6 이상인 변수들을 선발하여 최종 잠재분포모형을 작성하였다. 그 결과 작성된 모형은 비교적 높은 적합도를 나타냈는데 잣나무는 현재 표고의 범위가 300m에서 1,200m 사이인 지역 및 남부에서 북부에 이르기까지 넓게 자리 잡고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 작성된 모형에 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 잣나무는 2020년대부터 잠재분포역이 큰 폭으로 축소되며, 2090년대에는 우리나라 대부분의 지역이 잣나무의 생육에 불리할 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구를 통해 기후변화가 잣나무 분포에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 잣나무와 기후변화와의 상관성에 대한 이해를 높임으로써 향후 지역별 조림수종 선정 및 경제수종 교체 등의 조림적 관점에서 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

붉가시나무의 지리적 분포에 대한 기후변화 영향

천정화,이창배,윤순진 경상대학교 농업생명과학연구원 2015 농업생명과학연구 Vol.49 No.6

본 연구는 생태적 지위 모형을 이용하여 붉가시나무의 현존 및 잠재 분포도를 작성하고, RCP 8.5 시 나리오를 적용하여 미래의 분포 변화를 예측하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 5년에 걸쳐 수집된 NFI(National Forest Inventory) 자료에서 조사지점 별 붉가시나무의 풍부도 자료를 추출하여 사용하 였고, 생태적 지위 모형의 일종인 GARP(Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production)를 이용하여 붉 가시나무의 분포에 영향을 미치는 환경변수의 선정을 통해 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 분석 결과, 붉가 시나무의 현존 분포는 전라남도 해안 및 도서지역, 경상북도, 제주도에 국한되어 출현하였고, 상대적으 로 제주도 서귀포와 전라남도 완도 지역에 출현 개체수가 많은 것으로 나타났다. 최종적으로 작성된 붉 가시나무 잠재분포모형의 평가 통계량인 AUC(Area Under Curve)는 0.93으로 높은 모형의 적합도를 보였다. 작성된 모형에서 1월 평균기온의 AUC가 가장 높은 것으로 나타나 기후변화 시나리오의 1월 평 균기온 상승에 따라 2090년대에는 강원도 고산지역을 제외한 전 지역에서 생육이 가능한 것으로 분석 되었다. 현재의 기후변화 양상을 감안한다면 붉가시나무는 향후 기후변화 환경 하에서 주요 수종의 하 나로서 잠재적 가치가 있는 것으로 판단되었다. This study was conducted to understand current geographic distribution of Quercus acuta Thunb. using ecological niche modeling, and to predict the changes of future geographic distribution under RCP 8.5 scenarios. For this, abundance data of Q. acuta extracted from NFI(National Forest Inventory) data was utilized for modeling. Environmental variables which affect the geographic distribution of Q. acuta were selected to establish the final model by running GARP(Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model which is one of ecological niche models. Current distribution of Q. acuta is limited to southernmost coastal area including islands of Jeollanam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Jeju-do island showing relatively high abundance in seogwipo in Jeju-do and wando in Jeollanam-do. AUC(Area Under Curve) value of the modeled result was 0.93 showing quite high accuracy. Considering January mean air temperature showing highest AUC value(0.97) among the variables, increasing January mean air temperature in RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios mainly affected the possibility of northward expansion of Q. Acuta to whole country except for Gwangwon-do alpine region by 2090s. Overall, the results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of Q. acuta and projecting their future distribution changes. Q. acuta is considered to be one of the useful tree species under future climate taking into account the present climate change status.

소나무의 지리적 분포 및 생태적 지위 모형을 이용한 기후변화 영향 예측

천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),이창배 ( Chang Bae Lee ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4

본 연구는 산림에서 나타나는 수종의 분포 패턴을 해석하고 예측하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 국내에서 처음으로 시도된 전국 규모의 체계적 산림조사라할 수 있는 NFI (National Forest Inventory)의 수종별 출현 정보와 출현지점별 풍부도를 기반으로 소나무의 현존분포도를 작성하였다. 생태적 지위 모형의 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production)를 이용하여 소나무 현존분포와 연관성이 높은 환경요인변수들을 선정하였고, 선정된 변수들을 설명변수로 하는 소나무 잠재분포 모형을 작성한 후 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 미래의 잠재분포를 예측하였다. 기후, 지리·지형, 토양·지질, 토지이용 및 식생현황 등27개 환경요인변수를 각각 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 소나무 현존분포와의 연관성을 평가한 결과 1월 평균기온이 최상위를 차지하였고 연평균기온, 8월평균기온, 연교차 등도 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. NFI 정보로부터 추출하여 소스개체군으로 선정된 조사지점들을 소나무의 최종출현정보로, 환경요인변수 간의 연관성 분석을 통해 최종적으로 선정된 변수 세트를 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 최적의 모형을 선정한 후 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 현재 시점의 환경요인변수들에 의해 트레이닝 된 잠재분포 모형에서 기후관련변수들을 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에서 산출한 변수들로 대체하여 2020년대, 2050년대, 2090년대의 소나무의 예측 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 최종적으로 작성된 소나무 잠재분포모형의 평가통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)는 0.67로 다소미흡하였으나 향후 기후변화 환경 하에서 소나무림의 보전 및 관리를 위한 최소한의 실마리를 제공할 수있을 것으로 판단되었다. We employed the ecological niche modeling framework using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora based on environmental predictor variable datasets such as climate data including the RCP 8.5 emission climate change scenario, geographic and topographic characteristics, soil and geological properties, and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at 4 km2 resolution. National Forest Inventory (NFI) derived occurrence and abundance records from about 4,000 survey sites across the whole country were used for response variables. The current and future potential geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora, one of the tree species dominating the present Korean forest was modeled and mapped. Future models under RCP 8.5 scenarios for Pinus densiflora suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090 showing range shifts northward and to higher altitudes. Area Under Curve (AUC) values of the modeled result was 0.67. Overall, the results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of major tree species and projecting their future changes. However, there are still many possible limitations and uncertainties arising from the select of the presence-absence data and the environmental predictor variables for model input. Nevertheless, ecological niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of the tree species to climate change. The final models in this study may be used to identify potential distribution of the tree species based on the future climate scenarios, which can help forest managers to decide where to allocate effort in the management of forest ecosystem under climate change in Korea.

Predicting the Invasion Pathway of Balanus perforates in Korean Seawaters

최근형,최현우,김일회,홍재상 한국해양과학기술원 2013 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.35 No.1

The European Common Barnacle Balanus perforatus Brugiére (Crustacea, Cirripedia) has been introduced into the east coast of Korea, presumably via the ballast water of ships. The species has since been spreading along both the northern and southern coast to the east, most likely due to alongshore currents. We predicted the potential range expansion of Balanus perforatus in Korean waters using Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), an environmental niche modeling technique. The results show that much of the southern coastal waters of Korea could be colonized by the spread of the nonindigenous species, but that the west coast is unlikely to be invaded. More sampling on the west coast would enhance the predictability of the model. To our knowledge, this is the first report of its kind for predicting marine nonindigenous species in Korean waters using GARP modeling.

Predicting the Invasion Pathway of Balanus perforatus in Korean Seawaters

Choi, Keun-Hyung,Choi, Hyun-Woo,Kim, Il-Hoi,Hong, Jae-Sang Korea Institute of Ocean ScienceTechnology 2013 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.35 No.1

The European Common Barnacle Balanus perforatus Brugiere (Crustacea, Cirripedia) has been introduced into the east coast of Korea, presumably via the ballast water of ships. The species has since been spreading along both the northern and southern coast to the east, most likely due to alongshore currents. We predicted the potential range expansion of Balanus perforatus in Korean waters using Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), an environmental niche modeling technique. The results show that much of the southern coastal waters of Korea could be colonized by the spread of the nonindigenous species, but that the west coast is unlikely to be invaded. More sampling on the west coast would enhance the predictability of the model. To our knowledge, this is the first report of its kind for predicting marine nonindigenous species in Korean waters using GARP modeling.

Research on the Shared-network of SMV and GOOSE in Smart Substation

Wang, Wen-Long,Liu, Ming-Hui,Zhao, Xi-Cai 대한전기학회 2014 The Journal of International Council on Electrical Vol.4 No.2

The network structure of the smart substation in common use was introduced, and the technical problem of the shared-network of sampled measured value (SMV) and generic object oriented substation event (GOOSE) was analyzed, such as the processing ability of network device and the intelligent device, the data real-time property and the network reliability, the effects to the substation in the condition of network fault, and so on. On this basis, the feasibility of the shared-network of SMV and GOOSE was discussed, the implement scheme were presented, and eventually came to the solution of the shared-network of SMV and GOOSE, which based on the applications of the message priority control, restricting the switch number, virtual local area network (VLAN) and GARP multicast registration protocol (GMRP) classification flow control, etc. In the test-bed, the cases of shared-network and separate-network of SMV and GOOSE were compared and analyzed, and the result was valuable for reference.

A Comparison of Insect Distribution Models Under Climate Change in Korea

Hyoung-ho Mo,Jung-Joon Park,Doo-Hyung Lee,Kijong Cho 한국응용곤충학회 2014 한국응용곤충학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2014 No.10

Insects reflect climate change dramatically because insects are poikilotherm and have huge biodiversity. Also, the prediction of insect distribution is very significant due to the position of this group giving diverse ecological services including their extraordinary economic importance. Accurate modeling of geographic distributions of insect species is crucial to various applications in ecology and conservation. The best performing techniques often require some parameter tuning, which may be prohibitively time-consuming to do separately for each species, or unreliable for small or biased data sets. The purpose of this study is to introduce and compare several models to predict insect distribution under climate change in Korea. This work would be helpful to researchers or decision makers by giving practical advice, for example, kinds of input/output data, applicability to GIS, to select appropriate model to predict insect distribution.

John Irving’s Heroes and Their Graces

김일구 한국영미문화학회 2009 영미문화 Vol.9 No.1

Referring to John Irving's 2001 published fiction The Fourth Hand, the publisher commented, "It seems, at first, to be a comedy, perhaps a satire, almost certainly a sexual farce. Yet, in the end, it is as realistic and emotionally moving as any of Mr. Irving's previous novels." In his early six novels, John Irving shows the world suffused with grief and deception. But his novels finally turn out also as a comic and robust novel. The writer's success in achieving this thick description of the contradictory modern world is largely due to his development of the idea of the flawed hero. Despite loss, sadness and abandonment, Irving's heroes maintain classical heroic traits such as intelligence, tenderness, protectiveness, strength, bravery, sense of humor, independence, attractiveness. In this article, I tried to emphasize these graces potent in Irving's heroes as the most attractive and influential device for the writer's consistent popularity among the general public. The cinematization of his four fictions attest to audience's sympathy toward rewarding vulnerability and truthful exaggeration in the depiction of Irving's heroes. By taking full responsibility for their own fate despite having the flaws, Irving's protagonists still appeal to many readers as heroes resilient in a modern chaotic world without losing their graces.