고실업과 시스템비효율의 원인 및 개혁: 네덜란드와 독일을 중심으로

황신준 ( Shin Joon Hwang ) 국제지역학회 2005 국제지역연구 Vol.9 No.3

세계 경제위기 이후 한국의 새로운 경제 질서 및 발전 전망

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ) 한국질서경제학회 2011 질서경제저널 Vol.14 No.4

This study presents the key point of changed economic order of Korea after the economic crisis in 1997. On the basis of this changed economic order, the perspective of further growth of Korea is examined, and the present system problems are illuminated. Until 1997, Korea's economic order had two fundamental elements. First, the korean businesses worked under the perfectly competitive market, namely in the world market, despite lack of domestic competitive market. In the end, the successful businesses of Korea are not merely picked by the government, but by the market as winners, so they are strong and competent in the world market. Second, the korean finance system was backward and not fully developed. Credit was provided to businesses with special favour by the government, via banking system controlled by the government. Banks did not evaluate the profitability, but from the viewpoint of industrial policy of government. This led to permanent over-leveraging of businesses, and at last to financial collapse and economic crisis. And then in face of the crisis, Korea made reforms in financial system. Banks began to operate in search of profit and risk-defensive. Businesses reduced debt-to-equity ratio drastically. The consolidated Financial Supervisory Agency began to regulate financial sector prudently. Through privatization of many public enterprises, the fiscal position of the government became robust. Thanks to these reforms, Korea overcame negative impacts of the global crisis relatively fast. Of course, there are new system problems grown out of these reforms: Long lasting unemployment due to mass layoffs and ruin of SMEs, discrepance between big businesses and SMEs, deteriorating income inequality etc. To secure stability of market order, these problems must be resolved with policy of economic order. The limit of this paper remains, because it could not investigate and verify all the detailed parts, but this work can be a next task.

고실업 극복을 위한 경제질서 개혁 비교분석: 영국/네덜란드와 독일/프랑스 유형을 중심으로

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ),옥우석 ( Woo-seok Ok ),허찬영 ( Chan-young Huh ) 한국질서경제학회 2006 질서경제저널 Vol.9 No.1

The purpose of this article is to find the problems and weak points of economic order of western european countries that have experienced long-run high unemployment rate and low growth rate since 1970's. We also study two types of reforms to change economic order in Western Europe comparatively. The one is valid for England and Netherands and the other for Germany and France. The fundamental problems of the western european systems are such as the labor market which has lost its regulation function of price, unsustainalble expensive social welfare system, anti-market regulation of government etc. The former countries accomplish successful performances in privatisation of government-run industires, ending of excessive labor struggle tradition, reduction of unemployment subsidy and retraining of the unemployed (in case of England), contination of moderate wage-struggle policy of labor union, acceptance of flexible labor time system, reduction of social system subsidy and help (in case of Netherlands). Otherwise Germany and France could not succeed in reforming their system, because of the powerful resistance from the labor unions and left political forces. The western european cases show that the social welfare system tends to be irreversible and it could not easily adat to market situation or national economic competence. The newly indusrializing countries which will follow the track of Western Europe must consider this apparent economic and social dilemman between the social welfare system and economic growth.

경제질서이론의 시각에 의한 남 · 북한 경제발전의 비교 분석

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ) 한국질서경제학회 2005 질서경제저널 Vol.8 No.2

The performance gap between South and North Korea is growing. North Korea, a < centrally controlled economy > other than the South Korean market economy, is now almost ruined. On the other hand South Korean economy does not catch up the advanced countries, although it has succeeded in a extensive economic development and achieved a few innovation performances, in this sense both have their own development problems. In the face of everlasting misery of North Korean economy, peaceful coexistence or reunification of South and North cannot be not expected. This paper analyses the economic orders, process and performance of economic development, causes of economic crisis of South and North Korea. And it tries to find out necessary solutions for reform of economic order in both Koreas. North Korea has to move from the centrally controlled economy to a market economy, and South to get rid of any remained elements of centrally controlled economy, which were generated in the age of development plans.

외환위기 전후의 외국인직접투자 변화

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ) 한국질서경제학회 2005 질서경제저널 Vol.8 No.1

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) does not correspond to macro-economic investment, which means a formation of the fixed capital. Only one of the FDI types, namely Greenfield Investment has a close relation to macro-economic investment. Anyway it needs a lot of laborious work, to analyse correations between FDI and national economic performance such as growth rate. Moreover there are many contradicting research results, derived by different research workers and case countries. In case of Korea, the meaning of the FDI was almost negligible before the economic crisis in 1997. Then the FDI grew very rapidly, and slowed down again since 2003. With a few years experiences, it is not yet possible to verify economic effects of the FDI in Korea by an econometrical method. This paper tries to find out main features of the global trends of FDI. Then it examines the characteristics of the FDI, sectoral proportions of FDI inflow, economic effects of FDI etc. in Korea after the 1997 crisis.

지역대학의 지역내총생산 유발효과 분석: 지역산업연관표를 이용한 상지대학교 사례 연구

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ) 한국질서경제학회 2015 질서경제저널 Vol.18 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of a local university on its regional economy. Using the Regional IO Tables of the BOK, it predicts the derivation effect on GRDP, gross output and employment in Kangwon Province, caused by the consumption and investment of Sangji University which is located in Wonju City, Kangwon Province, Korea. In most cases in Korea, the papers that analyse the economic effect of local universities on their surrounding regions have adopted the one-sector model of keynesian muliplier. This model tends to overestimate the effect in this case, for a small size of economic activity of certain subjects in the restricted region could not correspond to the chain effect of aggregate variables of a national economy as a whole. Therefore this paper will use IO model to avoid such a risk. Of course, IO model has other theoretical problem, i. e. there is no guarantee for long-term stable production relations between sectors. Nevertheless, the IO model can offer at least a short term tool to estimate the effects of small units in the certain specific sectors and regions. According to the prediction, there will be an annual gross output increase of 134 bn KRW, a GRDP increase of 81 bn KRW and employment of 2,188 people derived from the consumption and investment of the University. This prediction assumes that the different categories of final demand (consumption, investment, export etc.) have an equal impact on GRDP, gross output and employment. But this can not correspond to the real relations. Therefore, this paper calculates another prediction, using derivation coefficients which consider differences of influence intensity of consumption, investment and export. These other results show that the real effect of the consumption and investment of the university would be decreased, because the domestic consumption and investment in Kangwon Province, export being excluded, can not be covered to the high level within its region itself. A larger portion of the final demand must be supplied by other regions. This means the structural weakness of the Kangwon Province. This paper also estimates negative effects of the location transfer of a local university to the metropolitan region of the capital city by assuming that Sangji University would be located in Kyung-gi Province. The results show that the overall effects are minimal at the national level, while Kangwon Province would lose a great amount of GRDP, gross output and employment. The estimated effects in this paper must be revised and its conclusions be improved, when the BOK publishes the new regional IO Tables in 2016. Till then, this paper could be regarded as a preliminary attempt and starting point to analyse the economic impact of all the local universities in Korea on its spatial balance.

개발원조위원회 회원국의 공적개발원조 부담률에 비추어 본 한국의 공여실적 재평가

황신준 ( Shin-joon Hwang ) 한국질서경제학회 2016 질서경제저널 Vol.19 No.2

The purpose of this paper is to reappraise the korean contribution of ODA (Official Development Assistance). Korea became a member country of the DAC (Development Assistance Committee) of the OECD in 2009, which has implemented donations of ODA since 1960. United Nations adopted 0.7 per cent target of ODA-GNI ratio in 1970, and since then, this target has played a key role to evaluate the contributions of the member countries of the DAC. In general, most studies on adequacy of ODA volume focus upon the performed ODA-GNI ratios with respect to the UN target. Many researches explained causes for a large variance of these ratios between the members and tried to advise how to go nearer to the UN target. Nevertheless there are only 5 members, the ratios of which exceed the UN target, and the average ratio of all members stays still only at 0.3% by 2015. Most domestic studies or press evaluations on adequacy of the korean ODA volume conclude that this does not respond to the economic capacity of Korea, and falls far below the UN target as well as the average of the DAC members. On this background, we try to reappraise the adequacy of the korean ODA donations through empirical verification. First of all, the regression relation is estimated between ODA or ODA-GNI ratio on the one hand, and GNI or per capita GDP on the other, using the most recent data set on ODA. As a result, it seems that ODA-GNI ratio could decrease as GNI increases. Moreover, it is statistically significant that ODA-GNI ratio increases evidently as per capita GDP increases. This might be interpreted as self-evident and reasonable, because ODA is a sort of international social welfare payment with redistribution effects. Therefore it is natural that there appears a progressivity of ODAGNI ratio upon per capital GDP. On the contrary, the single UN target ratio implies a regressivity, that is neither easily realizable nor desirable. On the premise that the progressivity of ODA-GNI ratio is reasonable, the contribution index (CI) can be defined as a proportion of realized ODA-GNI ratios of the member countries to expected ratios, given per capita GDP. The latter values can be simply obtained by the estimated regression functions. If a CI is greater than 1, then the member country donated more than the expected share. If a CI is smaller than 1, then the country did not come up to the expected obligation. The value of a CI does mean the level of performance of ODA contribution that is expected for given GNI or per capita GDP. At last, the rank of per capita GDP of the member countries was compared with the rank of CI. Korea has the 21st rank of per capita GDP, and the 17th~23rd rank, according to respective regression functions. This can conclude that the adequacy of korean ODA contribution corresponds to the international rank of korean economic power in terms of per capita GDP.

질서자유주의 관점에서 본 M&A와 경쟁질서: 하이트-진로 기업결합 사례를 중심으로

황신준 ( Shin Joon Hwang ) 한독경상학회 2005 경상논총 Vol.23 No.3

제 15 회 춘계학술 고용증대 및 국가경쟁력 강화를 위한 연합 - 21 세기를 대비하는 독일의 경제개혁에 관한 고찰 -

황신준(Shin Joon Hwang) 한독경상학회 1997 경상논총 Vol.15 No.1

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발터 오이켄의 경제질서정책 - 자유의 경제개혁 시대의 사상적 모색 -

황신준(Shin Joon Hwang) 한독경상학회 1995 경상논총 Vol.13 No.-

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