자유어업에서의 가격변화 효과 측정 : 이론적 접근과 시뮬레이션 분석

최종두(Choi Jong Du),조정희(Cho Jung Hee) 한국해양수산개발원 2008 해양정책연구 Vol.23 No.1

This paper uses a functional form extended the Schaefer model of a fishery to analyze the effects of price changes on stock size, fishing effort, and harvest level. Static and dynamic open access effects are modeled. Simulations were conducted for various scenarios. Results indicate that stock size always declines as price rises, but the effects on fishing effort and harvest levels depends on the circumstances.

공유자원의 효율적 경영을 위한 전략적 시나리오분석

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국수산경영학회 2011 수산경영론집 Vol.42 No.3

This paper attempts to extend such analysis to the rather more difficult problem of optimal management of transnational fish stocks jointly owned by two countries. Transboundary fish such as Mackerel creates an incentive to harvest fish before a competitor does and leads to over-exploitation. This tendency is especially poignant for transnational stocks since, in the absence of an enforceable, international agreement, there is Little or no reason for either government or the fishing industry to promote resource conservation and economic efficiency. In the current paper I examine a game theoretic setting in which cooperative management can provide more benefits than noncooperative management. A dynamic model of Mackerel fishery is combined with Nash`s theory of two countries cooperative games. A characteristic function game approach is applied to describe the sharing of the surplus benefits from cooperation and noncooperation. A bioeconomic model was used to compare the economic yield of the optimal strategies for two countries, under joint maximization of net benefits in joint ocean. The results suggest as follows. First, the threat points represent the net benefits for two countries in absence of cooperation. The net benefits to Korea and China in threat points are 2,000 billion won( p0KO) and 1,130 billion won( p0CH). Total benefits are 3,130 billion won. Second, if two countries cooperate one with another, they reach the solution payoffs such as Pareto efficient. The net benefits to Korea and China in Pareto efficient are 2,785 billion won( p0KO) and 1,605 billion won( p0CH) or total benefits of 4,390 billion won : a gain of 1,260 billion won. Third, the different price effects under the two scenarios show that total benefit rise as price increases.

태안시범바다목장해역내 인공어초사업의 경제적 효과에 대한 연구

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국수산경영학회 2013 수산경영론집 Vol.44 No.3

This paper analyzed that the economic effectiveness of the artificial fish reef project in the Tae-an Marine Ranching. Benefit-cost(B/C) model used to indicate the effects of economic valuation. B/C model is based on the sub-models which are Benefit Cost Ratio(BCR), Net Present Value(NPV) and Internal Ration of Return(IRR). First, the Sum of Incremental Benefit and Cost for total vessel by year in Artificial Fish Reef Area(AFRA) estimated 2,381 million won. And then, using 5.5% discounting rates and the survey data, the sub-models showed economically feasible in the all of analysis and analyzed the results as follows. BCR is 2.66, NPV is 28,014million won, and IRR is 22.78%. In conclusion, these results indicated that the artificial fish reef project in Tae-an Marine Ranching would be increase the income of fishermen as well as fish biomass.

어업 외 투자효과 및 투입산출분석: 태안시범바다목장사업을 중심으로

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국수산경영학회 2015 수산경영론집 Vol.46 No.1

This paper is to estimate the economic effect of benefits of the R&D and recreational fishing as well as input-output analysis in the Tae-an Trial Sea Farm Project(TTSFP). We use B/C model to indicate the effects of economic valuation. B/C analyses model consists of Benefit Cost Ratio(BCR), Net Present Value(NPV) and Internal Ration of Return(IRR). Using 5.5% discounting rates and the survey data, the sub-models show economically feasible in the all of analysis and analyzed the results as follows. NPV is 42,147 million won, BCR is 3.29 and IRR is 34.30%. This study attempts to apply input-output(I-O) analysis in connecting the economic effect of TTSFP. I-O model was constructed, focusing on three effects; the production-inducing effect, the value-added-inducing effect and employment-inducing effect. There are positive effects on economic value and job creation in Tae-an and Nation.

범개도국간 특혜무역제도 관세협상에 따른 국내 수산분야의 수입증가효과분석

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국수산경영학회 2008 수산경영론집 Vol.39 No.3

해양산성화가 굴양식 산업의 생산성 및 최적 생산규모에 미치는 영향분석

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국생산성학회 2014 生産性論集 Vol.28 No.4

The global climate change, mainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and forest destruction, may become one of the most serious environmental problems. The impacts of a rapid climate change have been discussed by researchers who are physical, biological, environmental scientists, and economists for over the decades. Especially, the carbon dioxide released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans. In this paper, we measured both economic valuation and optimal production scale per hectare for grow-out phase production of the tidal flat oyster industry, considering ocean acidification. Increased ocean acidification by climate change had a bad influence for oyster production and economic feasibility in each scenario. In the case of production units, the total output of oyster decreased. Cost-benefit analysis used to indicate the effects of economic valuation. The fundamental role of Cost-benefit analysis is to establish principles by which the costs and benefits of any public project are measured. Using discounting rates 5.5%, the model compared profit that occur at different times from 2012 to 2100. This study also estimated various sub-models, which are Benefit Cost Ratio(BCR), Net Present Value(NPV), Incremental Benefit Cost Ratio(IBCR) to compare profit of grow-out phase and analyzed returns to evaluate the scenarios. The results suggest as follows. First, all of scenario analysis with sub-models were economically feasible. Second, scenario 2 which is the oyster spat to the shell height of less than 3cm in 5cm was more profit than the scenario 1(less than 1cm in 3cm) and 3(5-7cm). It is the optimal production scale of aquaculture industry. Third, the elevated ocean acidification by climate change had a bad influence for oyster production and economic feasibility. To summarise, the economic effect per hectare of ocean acidification did the damage to the economic loss from 0.97billion won to 1.23billion won. If we can collect more biological and environmental data on climate change impacts for oyster, we can expect that this research will be helpful for future investigation of the economic valuation dynamics in Korea.

산업연관분석을 통한 슬로푸드박람회의 경제적 파급효과 추정

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2013 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.22 No.4

본 연구의 목적은 [2013 슬로푸드국제대회(아시오 구스토)] 개최의 경제적 타당성과 파급효과를 검증하는 데 있다. 이를 위하여 기존의 연구자료 및 통계자료를 활용하였으며, 국민여 행실태조사와 대국민 설문조사를 통하여 수요추정을 하였다. 엑스포 개최 타당성을 검토하기 위하여 편익· 비용 비율(Benefit Cost Ratio: BCR)과 순현재가치(Net Present Value: NPV)를 통해 재무적 및 경제적 타당성을 분석하였다. 또한, 엑스포 개최에 따른 경제적 파급효과를 추정하기 위하여 지역산업연관모형을 활용하여 전국 및 경기지역에 미치는 영향(효과)을 분석하였다. 재무적 타당성 분석 결과 BC ratio는 1.02~2.27로 수익성이 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 경제성 분석에서도 무료입장 10%적용시 시나리오 3과 4에서 BC ratio가 1.04~~2.15로 나타나 수익성이 도출되었다. 한편, 엑스포 개최에 따른 남양주시를 포함한 경기도 지역경제의 파급효과는 생산유발효과가 373.6~738.7억 원, 부가가치유발효과가 166.2~327.4억 원, 고용유발효과는1,971 1,971~2,009명으로 분석되었다. 따라서 「2013 슬로푸드국제대회」의 경제적 타당성은 양호한 것으로 나타났으며, 엑스포에 대한 지역주민의 공감대가 크며 남양주시 지역경제에 대한 경제적인 파급 효과도 긍정적인 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of this study is to examine feasibility of the ‘Master Plan of 2013 Slow Food Expo(2013 AsiO Gusto), Korea’ and to analyze the following economic effect. To this end, we used existing data and statistics, and estimated the demand by means of survey for people`s traveling and questionnaires for ordinary Koreans. For examining financial feasibility for hosting the Expo, BC ratio (Benefit-Cost Ratio) and NPV (Net Present Value) was applied. For estimating the economic effect following the Expo, the effect on all over the country and the Gyeong-gi province was analyzed, using the MRIO (Model of Regional Input-Output). Specifically, with the net effect of Expo, the economic feasibility test shows 1.04~2.15 BC ratio with 10% free admission, and 1.02~2.27 BC ratio in Finance analysis. Furthermore, the Expo feeds through Gyeong-gi (including Nam-yang-ku) regional economies with production induction effect, value-added induction effect, and employment induction effect. The amounts of regional effects are 373.6~738.7 billion won, 166.2~327.4 billion won, and 1,971~2,009 persons, respectively. Also, the「2013 Slow Food Expo, Korea」was analyzed profitable in general. Residents in Nam-yang-ju expects the Expo to bring vitalities into their hometown. The Expo is highly related to the positive economic effectiveness of Nam-yang-ju.

세계무역기구 NAMA 협상에 따른 관세감축 영향 분석

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국환경경제학회 한국자원경제학회 2009 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.18 No.4

가산자료모형을 이용한 서해 태안군 유어객의 편익추정

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2014 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.23 No.2

본 연구는 서해에 위치한 태안군을 방문하는 유어객의 방문 편익을 분석하기 위하여 개별여행비용법과 가산자료모형을 이용하여 수요모형을 추정하고 경제적 가치를 측정하였다. 여행객방문속성을 감안하여 분석모형으로 포아송모형(Poisson Model, PM), 음이항모형(Negative Binomial, NB), 절단된 포아송모형(Truncated Poisson Model, TPM), 절단된 음이항모형(Truncated Negative Binomial, TNB)을 분석에 이용하였다. 분석결과 추정계수들은 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났으며, 경제이론에도 부합되는 결과를 도출하였다. 과산포(overdispersion)현상은 발견되지 않았으며, 모형적합도검정을 통하여 절단된 포아송모형이 적정모형으로 선정되었다. 또한, 서해 태안군 해역내 유어활동의 경제적 가치를 추정하기 위하여 유어객의 연평균 출조횟수와 최적모형으로 선정된 절단된 포아송모형(TPM)으로 분석한 결과 1인 1회 출조당 경제적 가치는 254,453원이며, 1인당 연간 총 경제적 가치는 1,536,896원으로 도출되었다. The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the recreational sea fishing in the Yellow Sea using count data model. For estimating consumer surplus, we used several count data model of travel cost recreation demand such as a poisson model(PM), a negative binomial model(NBM), a truncated poisson model(TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model(TNBM). Model results show that there is no exist the over-dispersion problem and a NBM was statistically more suitable than the other models. All parameters estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. The NBM was applied to estimate the travel demand and consumer surplus. The consumer surplus pre trip was estimated to be 254,453won, total consumer surplus per person and per year 1,536,896won.

해면 중간육성 생산방식의 경제성 분석 -갯벌 참굴 산업을 중심으로-

최종두 ( Jong Du Choi ) 한국수산경영학회 2012 수산경영론집 Vol.43 No.3

This paper was conducted to study the economic valuation for Nursery-Phase production of the tidal flat oyster in Korea. Benefit-cost(B/C) model used to indicate the effects of economic valuation. Using discounting rates(i.e., 4.5%, 6.5% and 8.5%), the model compared revenues and costs that occur at different times from 2012 to 2018. This study also estimated various submodels, which are Benefit Cost Ratio(B/C ratio), Net Present Value(NPV), Internal Ration of Return(IRR), to compare profit of Nursery-Phase production styles and analyzed returns to evaluate the scenarios. Sensitivity analysis were conducted for various scenarios. The results suggest as follows. First, the oyster spat to the shell height of 3~5cm was more profit than the shell height of 1~3cm. Second, all of sensitivity analysis with submodels were economic valuation such that B/C ratio>1, NPV>0 and IRR>discounting rate. Third, the payback period was about 3years after installed Nursery-Phase production system.