Global Access vs. Access Denial: US-Chinese Naval Security Competition in the East Asian Seas

임경한 국방대학교 국가안전보장문제연구소 2012 The Korean Journal of Security Affairs Vol.17 No.1

This paper tries to demonstrate how important national interests are to security competition between great powers during peacetime. Recent US naval strategy and force structuring can be interpreted as an affirmative naval stance against China in the East Asian seas. On the other hand, PLAN has been developing new platforms and capabilities that will extend its operational reach to address other concerns within the East and South China Sea, the Yellow sea, and possibly to the Indian Ocean and beyond the second island chain in the western Pacific. Remaining problems such as tensions between the US and China in the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan issue, and the Spratly Islands accelerate the possibility of naval conflict between the US and China in the East Asian seas. Moreover, their competition for security will bring negative consequences to the security environment of the East Asian seas. The US and Chinese naval security competition will worsen the maritime security environment in East Asia and maritime conflicts in East Asia are directly connected to Korea’s maritime security. Having these situations in mind, this paper offers several policy recommendations for preparing an optimum naval strategy and enhancing Republic of Korea (ROK) naval forces in the future.

미얀마의 개혁 ‧ 개방과 미국의 對 미얀마 전략: 미얀마의 군부 주도 개혁 ‧ 개방을 중심으로

임경한,문종화 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2016 국제지역연구 Vol.25 No.2

In March, 2016, Myanmar under civilian President has been expediting reforms and open market policy with leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi and this change has been attracting the world’s attention. Myanmar’s extensive reform movement has yielded successful model of democratization which will bring Myanmar back into international politics. The United States placed economic sanctions on Myanmar since 1988, however, due to recent reformation by the civilian government, sanctions are being removed. The year of 2016 announced the new start of Myanmar, and the US government is interested in achieving its strategic object: expanding regional influence in Asia by showing deep interest in economic development of Myanmar. The US government’s aim is to not only securing regional presence of the US in the region but also support Myanmar to check on China’s ambition to become regional power. The Obama administration’s “Rebalancing” policy requires holistic approaches in military, diplomatic, and economic effort. Also, the US government should support Myanmar more closely on human rights issue and democratization, so that it can ensure the success of “Myanmar Spring”, which can spread around the region. 2016년 3월 민간 출신의 대통령을 내세운 미얀마는 아웅산 수치 여사의 주도하에 개혁‧ 개방의 속도를 높이고 있으며, 이는 국제사회의 이목을 집중시키고 있다. 이른바 미얀마의 봄이 시작된 것이 다. 미얀마의 움직임은 2011년부터 광범위하게 실시한 개혁‧ 개방과 민주화의 성공적인 모델로서 미얀마를 국제사회에 등장시킬 것으로 보인다. 미얀마의 개혁‧ 개방 노력을 추적해보면 1988년부 터시작된것을알수있다. 미국은지난1988년이후지속해온미얀마에대한제재를걷어올리는 작업을 이미 진행해오고 있었으며, 최근 들어 더욱 적극적으로 움직이고 있다. 2016년 미얀마의 새 로운 시대가 시작되었고, 미국은 미얀마의 지속적인 경제적 발전과 번영에 대한 관심을 증폭시킴으 로써 아시아에서의 영향력 확보를 위한 전략적 목표를 달성하고자 하는 것이다. 미국이 대 미얀마 전략에서 가장 중요시 하는 목표는 중국을 견제하는 가운데 아시아에서의 영향력을 지속적으로 확보 하는 것이다. 이를 위해 미국이 추진하고 있는 재균형(Rebalancing) 정책은 군사적인 노력뿐만 아니라 외교적, 경제적 노력 등 전 방위적인 접근을 필요로 한다. 또한 미국은 미얀마의 개혁‧개방 을 보장함으로써 궁극적으로는 미얀마의 인권문제 해결 및 민주화를 지원하여 아시아 주변국으로 파 급시키는 효과도 가져올 것으로 보인다.

지정학 관점에서 본 림랜드 아세안(ASEAN)의 가치와 미․중 경쟁

임경한 한국외국어대학교 동남아연구소 2020 東南亞硏究 Vol.30 No.2

This article explains the US-China competition and Rimland ASEAN's value from a geopolitical perspective. First of all, the article focuses on realist theorists' pessimistic view in which they forecast an inevitable collision between the US, the maritime nation, and China, the nation who has been promoting maritime-centric policies when still being easily mistaken for a continental nation. The article is to take a closer look at the ASEAN's response to the US-China strategic competition, giving a brief review on how to answer following questions : "How much value indeed does ASEAN imply?" and "How does ASEAN deal with the US-China competition?" Before such a hard competition between the US and China, the direction of ASEAN's strategic foreign policy is rather clearly classified. Despite relative difference among its member states, the ASEAN as a whole tends to promote economic cooperation with China while maintaining a close relationship with the US in military sector. Nevertheless it makes continuous and eager efforts to cooperate with the two nations in a balanced manner in both economic and military sectors. In other words the ASEAN has recognized its inherent value and is effectively carrying out pragmatic foreign policy in a selective manner.

미국의 대(對) 일본 안보전략 : 부시 행정부에서 트럼프 행정부 시기를 중심으로

임경한,정광호 대전대학교 안보군사연구원 2021 안보군사학연구 Vol.- No.20

This study focuses on the security strategy developed by the United States toward Japan in the 21st century. In the 21st century, the United States had to suppress the emergence of new threat states, and in the process, it actively seeks a joint response through cooperation with alliances and security partners. While the W. Bush administration emphasized the use of the U.S. force at the global level to wage the global war on terror, the Obama and Trump administrations focused on security strategies to contain China and increase national interests in the Asia-Pacific region specifically. In this process, the active cooperation of major allies and security partners in Asia was essential for the United States, and Japan was the most active country to reach out to the United States' request. As if in response to this, the United States gradually expanded the scope of Japan's activities by developing a more friendly stance on its security policy toward Japan. It is said that the ultimate purpose of this study is to trace and analyze the detailed process 본 연구에서는 21세기 미국이 일본을 대상으로 전개한 안보전략에 주목한다. 21세기 들어 미국은 새로운 위협 국가의 출현을 억제해야 했으며, 그 과정에서 동맹 및 우방국들과의 협력을 통한 공동 대응을 적극모색하게 된다. 부시 행정부는 글로벌 대테러 전쟁 수행을 위한 전 지구적인 차원에서 미군의 활용을 강조한 반면, 오바마와 트럼프 행정부에서는 중국을 견제하고 아시아·태평양에서 국가이익을 증대시키기 위한 안보전략을 중점적으로 수행했다. 이 과정에서 미국은 특히 아시아내 주요 동맹국의 협조가 필수적이었는데, 미국의 요청에 가장 적극적으로 손을 뻗은 국가가 일본이다. 미국은 이에 화답하듯 일본에 대한안보정책 기조를 더욱 우호적으로 발전시켜 일본의 활동 범위를 서서히 확장시켰으며, 특히 일본에 대한 군사전략은 실질적으로 일본 자위대의 역량을 강화하는 방향으로 진행했다. 이에 대한 세부적인 과정을추적하고 분석하는 것이 본 연구의 궁극적인 목적이라고 하겠다.

U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and New Southern Policy of South Korea - Based on Mutual Cooperation on the Maritime Security -

임경한,조현덕 한국해양수산개발원 2021 해양정책연구 Vol.36 No.2

The leaders of the Republic of Korea and the United States all recognize the importance of ASEAN and share the mutual assistance of policies targeting ASEAN. Above all, both countries not only acknowledge the importance of maritime cooperation but also agree to promote stable and peaceful Indian and Pacific Oceans. The Republic of Korea is implementing a New Southern Policy for long-term cooperation with ASEAN and India, which signifies an alignment with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy on the stage of the Asia-Pacific waters. The New Southern Policy aims to present human-to-human exchange, win-win prosperity, and peace, the Republic of Korea could possibly boost ROK-U.S. alliance further by finding some areas that can be successfully linked to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. In the status quo of the twenty-first century, competition for maritime hegemony between or among the powers has been intensifing, which will now have an impact on creating an atmosphere of anxiety. Thus, in the perspective of the Republic of Korea, enhancing a ROK-U.S. bilateral cooperation for maritime security in the sphere of ASEAN will be a cornerstone for promoting the future-oriented ROK-U.S. alliance.

Non-traditional Maritime Security Threats in Northeast Asia: Implications for Regional Cooperation

임경한 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2015 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.22 No.2

At the present, Northeast Asia, which is geopolitically surrounded by four great powers, the U.S., Russia, China, and Japan, has become a contested stage for enlarging the influences of these countries in the region. Naturally, this region has become the area where nations compete not only to rise to hegemonic status but also to achieve economic development, obtain energy resources, and maintain stability of SLOC. Even to this day, maritime environment has been a contested zone for numerous nations that are in rival relationships with each other. Powerful nations have explored the seas to pursue national interests as well as to seize key roles in the international society. However, the seas of the 21st century are no longer a stage for nations to compete or to engage in rivalry with each other. Certainly there is room for cooperation among countries in Northeast Asia. Cooperation among regional countries will be the key to open this window of opportunity to open this space of cooperation. With such constraining circumstances, this paper tries to find the way ahead to deal with the issue in terms of non-traditional maritime security threats in Northeast Asia.

Impacts of Russia-Ukraine War on East Asian Regional Order

임경한,김재호 통일연구원 2022 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.31 No.2

The outbreak of ‘the war in Ukraine’ in 2022 has had impacts well beyond Europe, spreading throughout international society. This study reviewed the structural impact of the war on the global order, as well as on the regional order in East Asia. As a result, the study came to the following conclusions: First, rigidity in the international system is increasing, and regional blocs are gaining strength. Second, the U.S., having previously maintained regional security in Europe and Asia separately, is now seeking strategic change as Russia and China working closely together. Third, the U.S. is courting cooperation with its allies and partners by cementing stronger than-ever economic and military ties in East Asia. Simultaneously, South Korea faces both structural changes in the international order and North Korea’s nuclear threats. Against this backdrop, South Korea needs to pursue a principled and integrated security strategy, along with a flexible strategy compartmentalized into sectors to promote its security. Above all, South Korea needs internal balancing—including the strengthening of its security capabilities —while pursuing the development of innovative organizations. In external balancing, South Korea needs to make bold decisions and greater efforts by pursuing a global comprehensive strategic alliance with the U.S.

일반논문 : 중국의 남사군도(Spratly Islands) 분쟁 대응 전략

임경한 한국국방연구원 2010 국방정책연구 Vol.26 No.2

일대일로와 인도-태평양 전략에 대한 인도와 호주의 대응

임경한 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2018 동서연구 Vol.30 No.4

This article studies the strategies of India and Australia towards the rivalry of China's One Belt One Road Initiative and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Many experts anticipate that India and Australia would benefit the most from the US-China economy and security rivalry. The two nations thoroughly investigate the strategy of the US and China, looking forward to maximizing their national interests while preparing themselves for the upcoming new international order. Both countries pursue to make economic benefits from China and to strengthen military security cooperation with the US. The two countries stay between the two great powers, but actively pursue their national interests. Their active hedging strategy as a middle power gives Korea implications of great importance in terms of how to set the foreign policy toward the US and China. 이 글을 통해 중국의 일대일로 전략과 미국의 인도-태평양 전략의 경쟁 사이에 놓인 인도와 호주의 대응전략을 살펴보았다. 두 강대국인 중국과 미국이 경제 및 안보 분야에서 상호 치열하게 경쟁하는 가운데 가장 많은 혜택을 누리면서도 전략적 딜레마에 고민할 것으로 예상되는 국가로 인도와 호주가 자주 언급된다. 인도와 호주는 미국과 중국의 전략을 면밀하게 살피는 가운데 국가이익을 극대화하고, 미래의 새로운 국제질서를 맞이할 준비에 분주하다. 공통적으로 인도와 호주 양국은 중국과의 관계 속에서는 경제적인 이득을 우선적으로 추구하고, 미국과는 군사안보 협력을 강화하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 인도와 호주는 미국과 중국 사이의 치열한 경쟁 상황 속에서 아슬아슬한 줄타기를 하면서도 적극적으로 국가이익을 추구하고 있다. 중견 국가로서 인도와 호주가 보여주는 적극적인 헤징 전략은 중국과 미국에 대한 우리나라의 대외정책 수립에 있어 중요한 시사점을 제공한다.

Same Bed, Different Dreams: US-Chinese Power Competition Over the East Asian Seas

임경한 경희대학교(국제캠퍼스) 국제지역연구원 2014 아태연구 Vol.21 No.1

This paper answers the causes of the security competition between the US and China in the East Asian Seas as the ultimate objective of the two great powers to achieve naval mastery in the region. This paper argues that economically and militarily, the incumbent global power, the US, and the challenging power regarding to economic and military power, China, are more likely to compete for their own national interests and security and so forth. It is notable that the level of US-Chinese security competition over the East Asian Seas has been changing. Security dilemma is changing into power competition and the competition is expected to intensify more and more. Thus, the East Asian Seas will be a contested zone for a while between the US and China with naval forces playing significant roles. All in all, the US has been attempting to contain China while China has been attempting to expand its maritime activities to avoid such containment. This is a typical one bed, different dreams phenomenon.