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      • KCI등재

        구제역 관리를 위한 혈청학적 예찰계획 평가

        박선일,신연경 한국임상수의학회 2013 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.30 No.4

        The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence,precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n =265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author’s knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ± 5%, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.

      • KCI등재

        개심장사상충의 정기 출현성에 관한 정량적 분석

        박선일,이홍수,안소저,정석영,김두 한국임상수의학회 2005 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.22 No.2

        Six dogs including 4 dogs living in different geographic locations of Kangwon province and 2 client-owned dogs were used to determine the periodicity of microfilariae of D. immitis using a trigonometric model. The calculated periodicity index was ranged from 25.6 to 95.5% with mean of 57.6%, and the estimated hour of peak was approximately 21:00hrs (range, 20:04-21:29hrs) and minimum counts at 09:00hrs (range, 08:04-09:29hrs). Correlation coefficient between the observed and the expected count from the model varies depending on dogs, ranging from 6.4 to 49.2%. Based on this study, the periodicity of microfilariae of D. immitis was considered as nocturnally sub-periodic for all dogs employed. This result is in consistent with previous report in peak hour but different in minimal hour, indicating that further studies on the periodicity need to be performed to better understanding the dynamics of the periodicity and to help practitioners in the choice of the time for examination of the dogs.

      • KCI등재

        Meta-analysis of the Prevalence of Canine Heartworm Infection in Korea

        박선일 한국임상수의학회 2009 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.26 No.4

        The purpose of this meta-analysis was to collect data from the literatures reporting prevalence of canine heartworm (HW) infection in an effort to emphasize the preventive importance of the disease and to serve as baseline data for further studies related to the disease management. Fourteen studies regarding the prevalence of HW infection published during the 1996-2007 were identified using the meta-analytic approach, involving a total of 1,790 cases by microfilarial test and 3,277 cases by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) antigen test for adult worms. Data analysis was performed separately for pet and military dogs. The overall apparent prevalence of HW infection in pet dogs by microfilarial test and ELISA was 11.7% (183/1,563) and 16.5% (379/2,302), respectively (p < 0.001). No significant difference in prevalence by microfilaria and ELISA was observed between sexes whether assessed by data separately or pooled together. Compared to before 2000, the prevalence by microfilaria after 2000 has increased from 2.5% to 13.1% (p < 0.001), and the rate of adult worm has also increased from 9.9% to 20.3% (p < 0.001). The prevalence determined by ELISA was found to increase with age: 20.7% (n = 1,003) of dogs older than 2 years were positive, compared with 5.0% of dogs (n = 701) under 2 years of age (p < 0.001). Also, outdoor dogs showed significantly higher prevalence than indoor dogs (37.9% versus 3.4%; p < 0.001). For military dogs, the overall prevalence was 38.3% (87/227; 95% CI, 32.1 − 44.7%) by microfilarial test and 38.5% (375/975; 95% CI, 35.4 − 41.6%) by ELISA. This rate was significantly higher than that of pet dogs (p < 0.001). Occult infection rate of 37.5% and 66.7% was found in pet and military dogs, respectively.

      • KCI등재

        수산동물 지정검역물에 대한 표본검사 계획 검토

        박선일 한국임상수의학회 2012 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.29 No.1

        To protect aquatic animal health of importing countries from the potential risks associated with exotic diseases introduced through international trade of live aquatic animals, inspection of designated commodities at ports of entry is a critical component of the safeguarding system. The only way to be 100% confident that no fishes in a shipment are infected with a specific agent is to test every fish in the commodity imported with a perfect diagnostic test. For the majority of cases, this is unrealistic since the group of interest may very large particularly for aquatic animals,or imperfect tests are often available. It is, therefore, more common to test a fixed proportion of a group by preplanned sampling schemes. However, decision making based on results of testing the sample can provide quite a chance that infected groups may be misclassified as uninfected, depending on sampling strategy employed. The objective of this study was to determine the possibility that one or more fishes in the group imported being infected but tests negative after inspecting samples. This question is critical to government authorities to examine whether sampling plan is sufficient to achieve the purpose intended for. At fixed population size, the maximum number of infected fishes when all tests negative was decreased as the sampling fraction increased. The probability of including at least one undetected but infected fish in a group for negative tests increased with the number of fish tested or true prevalence. The risk was much lesser where high sensitivity test was assumed; when increasing test sensitivity from 0.9 to 0.99,this risk was dramatically reduced to about a tenth or a fourth for prevalence ranges from 2 to 10%, given sample size ranges from 10 to 200. Based on the preliminary analysis, the author concluded that current sampling plan testing 4-8% of the import proposal for human consumption still can yield high false negative results. Therefore, from the quarantine inspection point of view, an enforced commodity-specific sampling design that accounts for the cost of testing with an imperfect test at the specified design prevalence is urgent.

      • KCI등재

        활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증(abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가

        박선일 한국임상수의학회 2014 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.31 No.1

        Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts onthe industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducingAbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalonecontains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysiswith 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome ofthe model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalonewere imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be atleast one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infectedabalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicatedthat for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2,background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the majorcontributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in thatat least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHVinfection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHVmanagement program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigationstrategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

      • KCI등재

        분산분석

        박선일,오태호 한국임상수의학회 2010 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.27 No.1

        Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a method to analyze the data from the experimental designs comparing two or more groups or treatments at the same time, and is the most effective tool of analyzing more complex data sets with different source of variations. This article describes the logic of ANOVA, the application of the method to the analysis of a simple data set, and the methods available for performing planned or post hoc multiple comparisons between the treatments means. In addition, the common misuse of the techniques is also discussed to emphasize that an inappropriate statistical analysis is potentially far more harmful than poorly conducted research. Lastly, an example is given for illustration purposes.

      • KCI등재

        뇌졸중 대상자를 위한 사회재적응 프로그램의 효과

        박선일 사단법인 인문사회과학기술융합학회 2017 예술인문사회융합멀티미디어논문지 Vol.7 No.9

        The purpose of this study was to verifying the effect of a social re-adjustment program for stroke survivors on the upper extremity function, shoulder pain, functional independence, rehabilitation motivation, and social re-adjustment. The research design was a quasi-experimental research of nonequivalent control group pre and post design. Both experimental group and control group consisted of 30 and were provided with a social re-adjustment program twice a week for 7 weeks from May to August, 2010. The data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 PC+ Win. The results above have approved that the social readjustment program, a caring mediation to make stroke survivors at home restore physical and psychological function and readjust at a proper level in control social aspects, improves upper limb function, functional independence, rehabilitation motivation, and social re-adjustment. Applying the social re-adjustment program to stroke survivors by step and individual would lead them to encourage the rehabilitation and promote re-adjustment for return to the society with the positive effect. 본 연구는 뇌졸중 대상자에게 사회재적응 프로그램을 제공하여 뇌졸중 대상자의 상지기능 및 어깨통증, 기능적 독립, 재활동기, 사회재적응에 미치는 효과를 검증하였다. 연구방법은 비 동등성 대조군 전후 설계 유사실험 연구이며, 연구의 대상자는 G시에 있는 재가뇌졸중 대상자로 연구의 목적을 이해하고 연구에 참여하기로 동의한 실험군 30명, 대조군 30명을 대상으로 하여 2010년 5월부터 8월까지 주 2회, 총 7주간 사회재적응 프로그램을 제공하였다. 수집된 자료는 SPSS 18.0 PC+ Win을 이용하여 대상자의 일반적 특성과 질병관련 특성은 빈도, 백분율, 표준편차로 산출하였고 분석하였으며, 험군과 대조군의 동질성은 χ2-test와 Fisher's exact test, 종속변수에 대한 동질성검증과 사회재적응 프로그램의 효과를 확인하는 가설 검정은 Mann-Whitney U test로 분석하였으며, 도구의 신뢰도는 Cronbach's α 값으로 구하였다. 연구 결과 재가 뇌졸중 대상자의 재활에 필요한 신체적, 심리적 기능상태 회복과 관리 및 사회적 측면의 최적 건강상태를 도모하는 간호 중재인 사회재적응 프로그램을 제공하여 상지기능, 재활동기, 기능적 독립 및 사회재적응에 효과가 있었다 따라서 뇌졸중 대상자를 위한 단계적이며 개별적인 사회재적응 프로그램은 재활의지를 북돋우며 긍정적인 사회재적응을 유도할 수 있는 프로그램으로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

      • KCI등재

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