미중 경쟁이 중국의 제3국 무역에 미친 영향

문예찬 한국관세무역개발원 2025 관세무역연구 Vol.2 No.2

This study empirically examines the spillover effects of the United States' high-tariff sanctions against China on China’s trade with third countries during the early phase of U.S.–China strategic rivalry. Utilizing panel data of bilateral trade between China and 144 countries from 2016 to 2019, the analysis reveals a significant decline in China’s exports and imports with third countries in 2018—immediately after the onset of the trade conflict—followed by a notable recovery in 2019. This pattern suggests that initial trade disruptions were driven by over-compliance among third countries, prompted by regulatory uncertainty and fears of secondary sanctions. However, the absence of actual enforcement of such sanctions and market adaptation by economic actors led to a partial normalization of trade flows. Drawing on this empirical evidence, the study further contextualizes recent developments following the re-election of former President Donald Trump in 2024, which ushered in a universal tariff policy targeting all imports. The findings offer timely insights into the global repercussions of expansive trade restrictions and provide a conceptual and empirical basis for evaluating policy responses in the face of renewed protectionism. This research contributes to the literature on economic sanctions by highlighting the dynamic and indirect effects of trade measures on global supply chains and international trade order. 본 연구는 2018년 본격화된 미중 전략경쟁 국면에서 미국의 대중국 고율 관세 조치가 중국의 제3국 무역에 미친 간접적 파급효과를 실증적으로 분석한다. 2016~2019년 중국과 144개국 간 무역 패널 데이터를 활용한 분석 결과, 2018년 중국의 제3국 대상 수출・수입은 유의하게 감소했으나, 2019년에는 회복세로 전환되었다. 이는 초기에는 과잉순응(over-compliance)에 따른 거래 위축이 있었으나, 시간이 흐르며 세컨더리 제재 부재와 민간 경제주체의 적응 전략이 작동한 결과로 해석된다. 본 연구는 이러한 실증 결과를 바탕으로, 2024년 트럼프 전 대통령의 재선 이후 모든 수입품에 대한 일괄 관세 정책이 현실화된 상황 속에서, 전방위적 무역제한 조치가 글로벌 무역질서에 미치는 충격을 조망하고 정책 대응 논의의 기초자료를 제시한다. 무역제재의 간접 효과와 그 동학에 대한 본 연구의 분석은 국제무역질서의 구조적 변화에 대한 이론적・정책적 기여를 제공한다.

The Paradox of Vaccines: North Korea's COVID-19 Response and Implications

문예찬 사단법인 한국융합기술연구학회 2024 아시아태평양융합연구교류논문지 Vol.10 No.9

This study investigates North Korea's consistent refusal of humanitarian aid during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite numerous offers from international organizations such as the World Health Organization and UNICEF. Although vaccines are crucial for public health, one of the primary reasons for North Korea's refusal lies in the paradox that accepting vaccines could potentially undermine its strict quarantine measures by requiring the opening of borders. North Korea's fragile and limited medical infrastructure plays a significant role in this decision, as the government fears that opening borders could lead to a surge in infections that the healthcare system is not equipped to manage. This research highlights the critical importance of international cooperation in helping North Korea develop its medical infrastructure and create strategies to ensure the effective distribution of vaccines without compromising the country’s quarantine protocols. By examining the complexities of North Korea's refusal to accept vaccines, the study underscores the vital role the global community can play in addressing these challenges. Supporting North Korea in this way is essential not only for improving its immediate response to the COVID-19 pandemic but also for building a more resilient healthcare system capable of handling future health crises. Through this analysis, the study offers insights into how coordinated international efforts can mitigate public health risks in one of the world's most isolated nations.

How Foreign Aid Facilitates Cooperation: The Korean Case

문예찬 한국외국어대학교 글로벌정치연구소 2024 글로벌정치연구 Vol.17 No.2

In 2017, South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced the New Southern Policy (NSP) and the New Northern Policy (NNP) to strengthen regional cooperation and advance the government’s primary goal of promoting peace on the Korean Peninsula. This study examines the differences in South Korea’s foreign aid allocation between the two policies, focusing on why NSP-targeted countries received more aid than NNP-targeted countries. Analyzing South Korea’s foreign aid data from 1987 to 2022, the study finds that NSP countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia, received significantly more aid than NNP countries. This disparity reflects South Korea’s strategic objective to expand economic and diplomatic ties with NSP countries as part of its efforts to support the Moon administration’s peace process initiatives. The findings demonstrate how South Korea strategically leverages foreign aid, through policies like the NSP, to foster regional cooperation and achieve its diplomatic goals.

대북제재 이후 북한의 대외관계 : 축전외교를 중심으로

문예찬 한국정치사회연구소 2024 한국과 국제사회 Vol.8 No.1

국제사회는 북한에게 다양한 경제제재를 부과하였다. 유엔 안전보장이사회는 2006년 대북제재위원회를 설치하여, 지금까지 총 10차례 대북제재 결의안을 발표하였다. 북한은 경제제재로 인해 석탄, 원유, 섬유 등 주요 수출입품의 제한을 받았고, 북한의 외교적 고립은 심화되었다. 본 연구는 북한 로동신문 및 조선중앙통신에서 확인할 수 있는 북한이 제3국으로 보내는 외교편지인 축전에 주목하여, 대북제재 이후 북한의 대외관계 전략에 주목한다. 북한은 2017년 이후 강도 높은 제재를 받으며, 대외관계 확대를 통한 제재 영향의 완화 혹은 제재 적응을 모색했을 것으로 보인다. 본 연구는 2012년과 2022년 사이의 북한 축전외교 현황을 분석하여 경험분석을 진행하였다. 연구 결과, 2017년 이후 북한의 대외관계 대상 국가가 확대되었음을 발견하였다. 북한은 제재 이후 직면한 대내외적 위기를 극복하고자 대외관계를 확대하는 노력을 전개했을 것으로 평가된다. The international community has imposed various economic sanctions on North Korea. These sanctions have restricted North Korea's key exports and imports, including coal, crude oil, and textiles, leading to a deepening of its diplomatic isolation. This study focuses on the diplomatic letters known as messages of congratulations sent to third countries, as observed in North Korean state media such as Rodong Sinmun and KCNA, to understand North Korea's foreign relations strategy in the wake of these sanctions. Since 2017, North Korea has faced stringent sanctions and appears to have sought to mitigate the impact of these sanctions or adapt to them through the expansion of its foreign relations. This research analyzes the state of North Korea's messages of congratulations diplomacy between 2012 and 2022 to conduct an empirical analysis. The findings indicate that North Korea has expanded its diplomatic relations to counter the internal and external crises it faced due to sanctions. This expansion of foreign relations is assessed as North Korea's effort to overcome the challenges posed by these sanctions.

북한의 사이버위협과 독자적 제재 회피

문예찬 한국융합보안학회 2024 융합보안 논문지 Vol.24 No.5

본 연구는 북한의 제재 회피 전략이 기존 제3국 협력에 의존한 전통적 방식에서 벗어나 독자적인 사이버 공격 및 암호화폐 탈취로 변화한 현상을 분석한다. 본 연구는 2018년부터 2024년까지 유엔 안전보장이사회 전문가 패널 보고서에 기록된 북한의 제재 회피 전략 데이터를 텍스트마이닝을 통해 분석하여, 북한이 더 이상 물리적 자원에 의존하지 않고 디지털 영역에서 자금 을 확보하는 방식을 적극적으로 활용하고 있음을 발견하였다. 본 연구는 독자적 제재 회피 이론을 제시하여 북한의 최근 제재 회피 전략을 설명한다. 또한, 사이버 위협을 중심으로 한 제재 회피 전략에 대응하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시한다. 국제사 회는 사이버 보안 협력 강화, 해상 밀수 감시 강화와 같은 다각적인 대응책을 마련해야 할 것이다. This study analyzes North Korea's shift from traditional sanctions evasion strategies, which relied on third-party cooperation, to independent tactics such as cyberattacks and cryptocurrency theft. Using text mining techniques, the study examines data from the United Nations Security Council Panel of Experts reports from 2018 to 2024. The findings reveal that North Korea has increasingly employed digital means to secure financial resources, moving away from reliance on physical assets. This study introduces the Independent Sanctions Evasion Theory to explain North Korea's recent strategic shifts and suggests policy implications for countering cyber threat-driven sanctions evasion. The international community must strengthen cyber security cooperation, and enhance maritime smuggling surveillance to effectively address these challenges.

한국전쟁과 보훈외교: 발전방향과 과제

문예찬 국제문화기술진흥원 2024 문화기술의 융합 Vol.10 No.5

한국전쟁은 63개국이 참전한 국제전이며, 모든 대륙에서 참여한 유일한 개별국가전쟁이다. 이러한 한국전쟁의특징은 국내적 차원의 보훈뿐만 아니라 다양한 국가와의 국제보훈 가능성을 제시한다. 본 연구는 지금까지 이루어진한국전쟁 참전국과의 보훈 현황을 살펴보며, 한국전쟁 정전 70년을 맞아 앞으로의 보훈 공공외교의 발전방향과 과제를 제언하는 데 목적을 둔다. 본 연구는 물자지원국과 전후복구지원국, 지원의사 표명국으로 범위 확대와 기존 유엔참전국 보훈 강화의 관점에서 보훈공공외교의 발전방향을 제언하였다. 국내에는 다양한 보훈시설이 있으며, 이를 활용한 적극적인 다크 투어리즘 전개는 한국전쟁에 대한 국내외적 관심 제고에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 한국전쟁은 국제사회와 한국을 연결해주는 매우 중요한 사건이다. 보훈공공외교를 통해 과거를 기억하고 지속가능한 국제보훈을 위한 준비가 필요한 시점이다 63 nations from all continents took part in the Korean War, which was an international war. Theseaspects of the Korean War point to the potential for global veteran issues. In order to strengthen veterans'public diplomacy in time for the 70th year of the Korean War’s armistice, this study will look at the currentsituation of veterans with nations that took part in the conflict. It will also make suggestions for futuredirections and tasks. From the standpoint of broadening the reach to include material assistance countries,expressing their intention to help South Korea, and strengthening veterans of current UN veterans, this studyoffered suggestions for how to promote veterans' public diplomacy. There are many veterans institutions inKorea, and it is anticipated that the active development of dark tourism employing them would help increaseinterest in the Korean War both domestically and abroad. The Korean War is a crucial event that brought theworld and Korea together. It's time to prepare for sustainable international veterans affairs while paying tributeto the past through public diplomacy among veterans.

한국 대통령의 통일 관련 담화 분석: 제1대 대통령 - 제19대 대통령

문예찬 한국정책학회 2024 한국정책학회 춘계학술발표논문집 Vol.2024 No.0

임대주택 단지 일자리사업이 개인의 삶에 미치는 영향: SH공사 희망돌보미 심층면담조사를 중심으로

문예찬 한국주택금융공사 2023 주택금융연구 Vol.7 No.2

The SH Corporation has actively implemented a housing-linked employment initiative through its Heemang Dolbomi project. With the overarching goal of increasing social participation among marginalized groups, participants in this initiative have experienced newfound appreciation for work and witnessed substantial changes in their daily lives. This study delves into the firsthand perspectives of participants who have directly engaged with the employment initiative, focusing on those involved in the Heemang Dolbomi project. The primary research method employed was semi-structured interviews, and snowball sampling was used to select participants. The findings revealed that participants in the Heemang Dolbomi project experienced self-realization and greater inner satisfaction through their engagement in labor. This indicates that public employment projects can extend beyond economic and welfare aspects to encompass personal value exploration. This study presents policy implications by proposing the expansion of the Heemang Dolbomi project model and recommending the integration of job provisions within the broader context of individuals’ lives.

대구형 도시재생 모델 구축: 국제협력의 관점에서

문예찬 대구가톨릭대학교 사회과학연구소 2024 지역사회 현안과 담론 Vol.23 No.2

This study aims to enhance the sustainability of urban regeneration projects in Daegu Metropolitan City by addressing contradictions between international agendas and domestic policy approaches while exploring new strategies. By comparing discussions on urban regeneration led by UN-Habitat with domestic policies, the study identifies limitations in Daegu's urban regeneration efforts and proposes measures to strengthen international connectivity. Employing qualitative methods, including literature and case studies, the research reinterprets global priorities such as inequality reduction, climate change adaptation, and urban crisis prevention in the context of Daegu's unique characteristics. The findings suggest that Daegu has the potential to contribute to reducing inequality through the establishment of a shared economy platform and to evolve as a climate action city through climate change response ordinances and decadal comprehensive plans. Furthermore, Daegu's experience in managing the COVID-19 pandemic highlights its capacity to serve as a leading model for urban crisis management and international collaboration. However, the study is limited by its reliance on qualitative analysis, and further research is required to conduct quantitative validations.

『개벽』에 나타난 1920~1930년대 인도에 대한 조선의 인식

문예찬 한국외국어대학교 인도연구소 2024 남아시아연구 Vol.29 No.4

When the Qing Dynasty was defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japanese War and the china centric world view collapsed in Joseon, Koreans began to seek understanding of various countries in an international order based on Elements of International Law. As knowledge of world geography and world history spread to Joseon and various ideas and information flowed in from the West, Joseon intellectuals also gradually became interested in India. Like other countries or objects, perceptions of India also have multifaceted aspects. Therefore, looking at the changes in the Koreans perception of India in Japanese colonial era is helpful in understanding the world view and critical awareness of the Korean people at the time, and the direction of social change. In particular, in the reality of colonial Joseon, which was experiencing Japan's oppressive rule, Koreans became very interested in the Indian independence movement and its leaders. The perception of India during the Japanese colonial period is also clearly revealed in 『Gaebyeok』, a representative magazine for intellectuals in the 1920s and 1930s. 『Gaebyeok』 initially mainly consists of descriptions of India abstracted from simple facts about India or the origins of Eastern civilization, but gradually details about India's current political situation and social situation are revealed in the descriptions. In Addition, the authors of 『Gaebyeok』 pursued the need for modernization and advancement of Joseon, emphasizing the backwardness of India's culture, religion, and institutions. And in this process, India was used as a symbol of pre-modernity and uncivilization. However, as time passed, India was gradually recognized as a partner in the same anti-imperialist movement and as an example for Joseon society to follow. In various views ofeditorials in 『Gaebyeok』, Indians were set up as representatives of the world's oppressed peoples, and there was even a perception that the situation in India was evaluated more positively than that of Joseon, or Koreans also had a perception of longing for India. In this way, Joseon intellectuals’ perception of India in 『Gaebyeok』 in the 1920s and 1930s was summoned or consumed in various ways, depending on the political situation within Joseon, the ideological orientation of the writers, and the direction or orientation of the Joseon independence movement.