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산업구조 변화에 따른 일자리의 특성 변화와 인력재배치 방향
길은선(Gil Eunsun),김지운(Kim Jiwoon) 산업연구원 2021 연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
This article is one of the first analysis about worker’s mobility across industries by using Matched Employer-Employee Data in South Korea. Industrial structure change induces declines in employment for old-fashioned industries and rises in employment for new growing industries. While workers are systematically reallocated across industries with heavy churning rate following a vertical job ladder in the labor market, policy makers are tend to over-simplify the labor reallocation problem as education issue for youth and unemployment insurance plan for displaced workers. This paper argue that industry specific labor reallocation policy package is essential nowadays, and thorough job-to-job transition research is definitely one the most important backbone of evidence based policy design.
온실가스 감축정책 시행 후 제조업의 이산화탄소 배출량 변화 분석
길은선 ( Eunsun Gil ),이슬기 ( Sul-Ki Lee ),임미라 ( Mira Rim ) 한국경제학회 2021 經濟學硏究 Vol.69 No.3
우리나라에서 배출되는 온실가스 중 절반가량을 차지하는 제조업 이산화탄소(CO<sub>2</sub>) 배출량의 감축은 기후변화 대응 성패를 좌우할 핵심적인 요인이다. 온실가스 감축정책으로 인하여 제조업의 생산과정에서 배출되는 온실가스가 감소하는 지를 분석할 때, 에너지 총사용량으로는 충분히 통제되지 않는 내생성이 발생할 수 있다. 고용과 급여총액을 도구변수로 사용하여 산업ㆍ지역 연결 패널자료를 분석한 결과, 2015년 이후 산업부문 CO<sub>2</sub> 총배출량, 생산당 CO<sub>2</sub> 배출량, 에너지의 CO<sub>2</sub> 집약도가 모두 유의하게 증가하여 정책 기조와 반대되는 변화를 보였다. 다 배출업종 중 1차금속은 생산 대비 온실가스 배출량의 지역별 격차가 높으므로, 동일 업종 내 상대적 다배출 기업의 에너지 사용 저탄소화를 유도하기 위한 정책 설계가 필요하다. CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Manufacturing industry account for about half of national greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea. To control for endogeneity between output and greenhouse gas emissions, this paper uses employment and total payroll as instrumental variables in an analysis of 2012-2018 linked panel data. Following the implementation of climate policy, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from production activities in the manufacturing sector increased significantly, running counter to policy objectives. Since the primary metals industry shows a high degree of regional heterogeneity in carbon dioxide emissions relative to its production level, it is necessary to upgrade facilities and adopt technologies for particularly ‘brown’ firms.
길은선(Gil Eunsun),김동근,최현경,최민철,유고은,전현희 산업연구원 2022 연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
This paper scrutinizes one of the commonsense that the new wave in the automobile industry focused on EVs inevitably results in massive layoffs in the engine parts manufacturing sector. The effect of industrial structure change does not necessarily predict the employment dynamics, because not only the substitution effect due to production composition change but also a scale adjustment effect and endogenous business plan adaptation effect exist. On top of them, the labor market is vively churning, so a decline in employment does not necessarily mean massive layoffs. The automobile industry in South Korea exhibits relatively small decline in employment despite of rapidly emerging EV market because we see steady gasoline car sales and increasing hybrid car production as well. Also, the share of age over 50 is abnormally high in the automobile manufacturing industry, so that natural decline in employment due to retirement around age 60 means that 1.3 million workers would exit the sectoral labor market by 2030. This paper also presents four suggestions about industrial structure change policy and three thoughts for prepairing low-carbon trends in the automobile industry.