연구논문 : 사회과학; 라오스 진출 소규모 해외 산림자원 투자사업의 경제성 평가

구승모 ( Seung Mo Koo ),이준우 ( Joon Woo Lee ),김세빈 ( Se Bin Kim ),정선옥 ( Sun Ok Chung ),임용표 ( Yong Pyo Lim ) 한국국제농업개발학회 2013 韓國國際農業開發學會誌 Vol.25 No.2

라오스 정부는 산림의 황폐화를 방지하고 그동안 훼손된 산림 자원의 복원을 위해 외국 자본에 의한 조림사업을 유치하는 노력을 하고 있어, 라오스는 우리나라의 해외 조림목 공급선 확대라는 정책 목표에 부합하는 지역으로 볼 수 있다. 이렇듯 조림 투자 가능성이 점차 확대되어가고 있는 환경 아래, 조림 투자 사업의 경제적 타당성을 미리 가늠해 보는 과정은 투자 의사 결정에 있어 매우 중요한 역할을 차지한다. 본 연구의 기본적인 목적은 라오스 조림 투자 사업에 대한 경제적 타당성을 실증적인 차원에서 평가하는 것이다. 모든 투자 사업을 계획할 때에는 B/C ratio나 IRR 등과 같은 타당성 지표를 계산하여 사업의 경제성 여부를 판단하게 된다. 그러나 그러한 경제적 타당성 분석 결과의 신뢰성은 분석에 적용되는 편익 항목과 비용 항목이 얼마만큼 현실적인 조건을 충실히 반영하느냐에 의존하게 되며, 투자 사업이 진행됨에 따라 나타나는 여러 불확실성이나 항목의 변동을 감안하는 데에는 큰 제약이 있는 것이 현실이다. 더욱이 사업이 진행됨에 따라 사업 기간 중 발생하는 편익과 비용의 변동 사항을 적절히 반영하여 경제성을 재평가한다면, 나머지 사업 기간 중의 투자 계획 수정 과정이나 동종 업계의 투자 의사 결정, 나아가 정부의 관련 정책 의사 결정 과정에 기여하는 바가 크다고 할 수 있다. 이상과 같은 목적에 부합하는 연구를 수행하기 위하여, 본 연구에서는 현재 해외에 진출하여 조림사업을 추진하고 있는 기업 중, 라오스에 진출한 M산업을 분석 대상으로 선정하였다. M산업은 조림 면적이나 사업비 규모 측면에서 상대적으로 소규모의 투자 업체로 간주되는데, 2002년부터 3여 년 동안의 사업 준비기간을 거쳐 2005년 라오스에 진출한 소규모 국내 업체이다. 현지 조사를 바탕으로 가정한 비용 항목과 편익 항목의 각 수치를 최대한 보수적인 관점에서 적용하여 경제성을 분석한 결과, IRR은 19.62로 나타나 최근에 자본의 기회비용으로 간주될 수 있는 시중 이자율을 크게 상회하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 8%의 할인율에서 B/C ratio는 1.54로 나타나 1원의 투자에 대응하여 0.54원의 순수익을 기대할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 이 때 미래 순수익 흐름의 합계인 NPV는 $4,529,182로 나타났다. 분석에 적용된 할인율이 각각 5%부터 20%까지 상승함을 가정할 때, B/C는 1.70으로부터 0.99까지 하락하는 것으로 나타났으며 동시에 NPV는 $6,773,935로부터 -$39,155까지 하락할 수 있음이 분석되었다. 민감도 분석 결과 편익의 크기가 20% 가량 증가할 때, IRR은 24.69%까지 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 반대로 편익의 크기가 20% 가량 감소할 때, IRR은 13.53%까지 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 비용 항목 변동의 경우 주요 비용 항목의 크기가 각각 10% 및 20% 씩 감소할 때, IRR은 각각 18.86% 및 18.13%로 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 현재의 국내 자본의 기회비용 수준을 8% 정도로 감안했을 때 모든 시나리오의 분석 결과가 이를 크게 상회함으로써 민감도 분석결과 또한 다양한 가격 조건 하에서도 본 사업의 경제성은 충분히 확보된 것으로 판단할 수 있다. To protect and preserve forest resources, LAO PDR government has made efforts to invite foreign capitals in various ways, and these efforts are in accordance with Korea`s foreign forestation policies in terms of extending supply sources of the domestic consumption of wood products. Under these circumstances, the attempts to measure economic feasibility of forestation business is very important, prior to the projection of the actual investment plans. The basic purpose of this study is to evaluate economic feasibility of the small-scale forestation business in LAO PDR. Like other studies regarding economic feasibility, this study employs Benefit-Cost ratio(B/C ratio), Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and Net Present Value(NPV) as the representative indices. Futhermore, re-evaluation of the feasibility in the middle of ongoing projects provide flexible decision making information from the viewpoint of enterprises and relevant policy makers. The case study were conducted with M company, which has relatively smallscale forestation business in LAO PDA since 2002, planting Agarwood, Teak, Rubber, etc. According the analysis from the base scenario, the IRR is 19.62, which is high enough compared with the current business opportunity cost in Korea, implying that the business is economically feasible. At the same time, assuming 8% of discounting rate, B/C ratio is 1.54, which implies 0.54 monetary unit of net revenue as a result of investing 1 monetary unit. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to observe how the indices change with the possible changes of the amount of benefits or costs. With 20% increase in benefits, IRR rises to 24.69, whereas IRR falls to 13.53% with 20% decrease. With 10% and 20% increases in major variable costs, IRR falls to 18.86 and 18.13, respectively. The overall result implies that the business is economically feasible when assuming 8% of the domestic discounting rate, with the consideration of various range of unit prices from the sensitivity analysis.

자본시장법상 불공정거래행위 수사 현황 및 개선방안 -불공정거래행위에 대한 과징금 도입논의와 관련하여-

구승모 ( Seung Mo Koo ) 법조협회 2012 法曹 Vol.61 No.7

Financial Services Commission considers to adopt administrative fines for the unfair trading practices in Korea. However, unfair trading such as manipulation and insider trading is serious criminal crime which should be dealt with criminal penalty. Moreover, there are serious problems in the investigative procedure for these crimes. For example, the evidences collected by administrative agencies are inadmissible in criminal trail and it takes too much time for the administrative procedure. When reforming the investigative procedure, we have to consider these principles. We should be able to use the evidences which are collected at the early stage of the case. We have to minimize the contact with the suspect. The administrative agencies should be able to communicate efficiently with prosecutors from the beginning. The result of the administrative research should be shared with prosecutors. And the rights of the suspect should be protected. While it is ideal to establish a new agency for the investigation of unfair trading, we can use the research official which is already regulated in Capital Markets Act. Or we can appoint Financial Supervisory Service as special police officer. Adopting the administrative fines without solving these problems of the investigative system would cause bigger problems. The crime investigation for unfair trading would be impossible because the evidences from the administrative procedure are inadmissible at criminal trial. And the high amount of administrative fine should not substitute criminal penalty as its procedure is simple and easy comparing criminal procedure.

농촌 그린빌리지 계획을 위한 일별 풍력발전량의 적정확률분포형 추정

김대식,구승모,남상운,Kim, Dae-Sik,Koo, Seung-Mo,Nam, Sang-Woon 한국농공학회 2008 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.50 No.6

This study aims to estimate the optimal probability distribution of daily electricity generation by wind power, in order to contribute in rural green-village planning. Wind power generation is now being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies while applying historical daily wind data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodology is employed to define the appropriate statistical distributions for monthly power outputs for specific rural areas. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for many cases may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Subjective methodology for testing goodness of fit for normal distributions on all the cases in this study, provides possibilities to consider the other various types of statistical distributions for more precise feasibility analysis.

농촌그린빌리지 조성을 위한 일별 잠재적 태양광발전량의 적정확률분포형 추정 - 서산지역을 중심으로 -

김대식,구승모,남상운,Kim, Dae-Sik,Koo, Seung-Mo,Nam, Sang-Woon 한국농공학회 2008 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.50 No.6

Photovoltaic power generation is currently being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies, while applying historical daily solar energy data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodologies is employed to define the appropriate probability distributions for monthly power outputs for the selected rural area, county of Seo-san, province of Chungnam. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for several months may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Generalized beta and triangular distributions were found to be superior to normal distribution, when describing monthly probability distributions for daily photovoltaic power. Based on the appropriate distributions resulted from this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique was also applied to provide additional flexible information for the relevant decision makers. This study found out new finding that the probability distributions should be considered to make planning of the photovoltaic power system in rural village unit, in order to give reasonable economic analysis to the decision makers.

농업조사 통계의 작성 실태 분석 및 평가

김성훈(Soung-Hun Kim),구승모(Seung-Mo Koo),손창수(Chang-Soo Son),이계오(Kye-Oh Lee),한석호(Suk-Ho Han) 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2012 농업과학연구 Vol.39 No.1

The 2009 Agricultural Survey is one of the most important official statistics about agricultural sector, which is mostly used by experts. However users have kept claiming about the problems of the 2009 Agricultural Survey, which need to be discussed in the academic area. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the 2009 Agricultural Survey and the level of satisfaction of users and to evaluate the 2009 Agricultural Survey. Then, the paper presents some suggestions to upgrade the 2009 Agricultural Survey. The results of studies present a few findings: First, the 2009 Agricultural Survey shows overall excellence but should focus on adding more various topics in agricultural sector, Second, the 2009 Agricultural Survey need to consider offering micro level data for experts such as data in the city or county level, Third, the 2009 Agricultural Survey had better to offer more specific examination and guide line for general users.

관광소득의 요인별 분포특성에 근거한 농촌마을 개발전략에 관한 연구

김대식 ( Dae Sik Kim ),구승모 ( Seung Mo Koo ) 한국농촌계획학회 2004 농촌계획 Vol.10 No.4

This study aims to suggest new development strategy for rural villages considering their tourism income. In order to select the several study villages, the present study surveyed roughly the outline for resource characteristics about green-tourism of 83 rural tourist villages introduced on the intemet. On the five rural villages, which are Moondang-ri, Yangsoo-ri, Molwoonri(Tomato-village), Yongsan-ri(Yongbayi-gol), and Kaya-ri(Ogam-village) located on Chungnam, Kyunggi, Kangwon, Chungbuk, and Kyunggi province, this study surveyed detailed data on the tourism income. The results show that the food sales business in the village makes about 50% of the total village income per year from the tourist, and followed by agricultural products sale, stay in farmhouses, and experience activity in the villages. The average total income of the five villages was estimated 93 million won per year and the average income per household was 1.5 million won in the study villages. The study suggests new strategy with the three kinds of important components for the rural village development considering the analysis results such as the bringing up of human resources for the village management and developing experience program for tourist, the characterization of agricultural products in the village, and the remodeling of village amenity environment for tourists.

연구보문 : 캄보디아 캄퐁지역 통합식량안보사업의 경제적 타당성 분석

심보라미 ( Boramy Sim ),권용대 ( Yong Dae Kwon ),구승모 ( Seung Mo Koo ) 한국국제농업개발학회 2009 韓國國際農業開發學會誌 Vol.21 No.1

유휴농지 활용을 위한 정책사업 모델개발

김경찬 ( Kyoung Chan Kim ),박창원 ( Chang Won Park ),조석호 ( Seok Ho Cho ),전영미 ( Young Mi Jeon ),구승모 ( Seung Mo Koo ) 한국농촌계획학회 2014 농촌계획 Vol.20 No.1

Self-sufficiency rate of food in South Korea is almost at the lowest level among OECD countries, and the decrease tend of farmland is expected to be continued. In this situation, Korea experienced a rapid change in the international price of grain due to changes in amount of grain production and food weaponization. It also started to reinforce the appropriateness of maintenance of farmland above certain standard. As one of policy means for this situation, this study selected the use of idle farmland as a subject, and started to consider the way to suggest the policy projects using idle farmland. The result of this study is summarized as follows. Firstly, this study defined the meaning of idle farmland, and set up the scope of idle farmland needed to this study. Secondly, this study analyzed the domestic major policy projects with prevention function of idle farmland as well as the policy projects related to idle farmland. It also investigated recycling measures of idle farmland that is recently promoted in Japan, and deducted the direction for developing a new model. Lastly, It suggested 9 policy project models that are finally able to use idle farmland. Suggested models are designed to access from various directions. This study suggested contents, entity, target and characteristics of projects in order to set up proper directions in promoting policy projects using idle farmland.

여행비용접근법[TCM]에 의한 관광효과 추정 : 대호농어촌관광휴양단지를 중심으로 Application for Daeho Rural Tourism & Leisure Complex

유영희,임재환,구승모 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2004 농업과학연구 Vol.31 No.2

Since 1989, 9 major complex have been invested with government funds, for the purpose of developing agricultural tourism to increase agricultural income and job opportunity, as well as providing urban population leisure opportunity. However, systematic and comprehensive approaches were rarely done in analyzing its economic impacts. This study, therefore, focuses on analyzing tourism effect and its economic value and implication for a representative rural tourism site, "Daeho rural tourism complex". To analyze travel pattern, expenditure pattern, and degree of satisfaction from travel to Daeho complex, Travel Cost Method(TCM) was employed based on survey method. Results from linear model with statistical significance implies that tourism benefit for each visitor is 28,373 won and total annual benefit for the Daeho site is 7 billion won. Considering annual benefit stream, the present value of total benefits are 132.9 billion won and 70 billion won at 5% and 10% of discounting rate, respectively. Using the values of benefit estimated from this study and investment cost, B/C ratio, IRR, and NPV were calculated to be 1.01, 1.67 billion won, and 5.19% at 5% of discounting rate. These results could be directly compared with the previous analyses.