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千昌寧 건국대학교 1998 학술논문집 : 건국대 대학원 Vol.48 No.1
Perhaps the most significant trend in the world of financial serices during the 1980s and 1990s might be the rapid internationalization of credit card. Once a pre-dominantly North American and British phenomenon, plastic card have now become the weapon of choice in the retail banking revolution that has been sweeping the globe. The world card business is dominated by five international brands : VISA, MasterCard, American Express, Diners Club and JCB. Of the five major global players in the card business, four originated and are headquartered in the United States, which is still the world's largest and most mature credit card market. But as growth in the north American card business slows to single-digit levels, Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa regions offer the prospect of continued growth of 20% or more per year. Rep. of Korea is the 2nd largest credit card market in the Asia-Pacific region and has more than 40.3 million cards in circulation at the end of March 1997. Credit card market has been growing rapidly in Korea and this trend seems to sontinue for the time being. But Korean credit card market is characterized by gorvernment regulations that aimed to control directly domestic consumption and money supply as the nation;s trade defict widened and the domestic economy worsened. Irrational use of credit was blamed for high levels of individual spending. The monetary authority has often demanded records of customers' overseas purchases in order to check on the use by citizens of multiple cards to circumvent the spending limit outside the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of credit card on consumption and money, which should have been studied thoroughly prior to government regulations. It seems clear that credit card substitutes money to some extent in so far as if functions as a means of payment, but it is not so clear whether credit card always increases consumption and various levels of demand for money. In this paper I assumed it is a matter of empirical test and trued to confirm the effects of credit card on consumption and various levels of demand for money in Korea. This paper consists of largely four parts. The first part, chapter 2, outlines the concepts of credit card and various features of card market in Korea and worldwide. The second part, chapter 3 & 5, summarizes the theoretical and empirical studies on consumption and demand for money with the consumption and monetary effets of credit card is empirically analyzed through multiple time series regressions. Various statistical tests such as unit root test, Granger causality test, Johanses cointegration test, t-test, Durbin-Watson test, F-test had been done. The sample period is 1987.1st quater - 1996. 4th quater. Also chapter 1 outlines the aim and scopes of this study and chapter 7 summarizes the results of this study and some suggestions for future research and policy implications. Thriugh the empirical analysis I have come to the following conclusions. Firstly credit card increases and Granger-causes private consumption empirically in Korea, which supports Hirshman;s surbey. Although this result does not back up the assertion of vredit card industry in Korea, but it can not automatically serve as the rationale of direct government regulations upon credit card industry. Secondly GNP, highly liquid assets, stock holdings together with the amount of credit card use form one and the only stationary linear combination, Granger-cause and have positive correlations with private consumption. Thirdly credit card results in the decrease of the deman for cash. This result is coincident with Fussell, Akhand-Milbourne, Hesterm and Garcia. Tests shw that the credit card usage rate has negative correlations with and Granger-causes the amount of cash held by pribate sector and the amount of bank notes and coins issued by the central bank. But the credit card usage rate doesn't Granger-Cause M2 and M3 Although it has positive correlation with them in a stationary linear combination. Fifthly GNP, credit card usage rate and interest rate form altogether one and the only stationary linear combination with two levels of demand for money i.e. cash held by private sector and the amount of bank notes and coins. Lastly interest rate Granger-causes the credit card usage rate, but doesn''t Granger-causes any level of demand for money although it has positive correlation with five levels of demand for money in a stationary linear combination. It is also arguedin this paper that direct government regulation is not desirable for the sound development of market economy, credit card companies should refrain themselves from excessive competitions and try to work out new indigenous credit examination models and elaborate credit information systems instead, and government must try to provide various incentives including tax-cuts to the credit card users and merchants in the privare sector and lead the various public organizations to use and accept credit cards more widely.