Network Analysis and Meta-analysis of Studies of Supply Chain Risk and Firms’ Capabilities and Performance Levels

( Euibeom Jeong ) 한국생산성학회 2021 生産性論集 Vol.35 No.4

As supply chain risk has come to be regarded as a critical impetus for firm performance, the existing studies have sought to identify the influential risk sources, relevant performancerelated supply chain risks, and risk capabilities. Although some studies on supply chain risks have conducted literature reviews to understand supply chain risk factors (SCRFs) and these capabilities, it has been observed that several articles only cover specific SCRFs and the capabilities pre-identified by the authors. There remains a lack of systematic examination of the various topics in the literature on supply chain risk, such as the main SCRFs, firms’ response capabilities, and firms’ relative performance levels. Some studies have used a popularity-based approach called bibliometrics to fill the gaps in the existing literature. In contrast, other researchers have adopted network-based approaches using citation and co-citation analyses. However, such studies have mainly adopted published papers rather than specific keywords to identify the important research gaps and suggest directions for future research. Therefore, we conducted a network analysis that combined citation and keyword network analyses to identify the most influential SCRFs, firms’ response capabilities, and relative performance levels. To implement rigorous citation and keyword network analyses, we collected initial data set composed of major supply chain risk-related papers with impact factors of at least 3.0 as scored by Web of Science from the SCOPUS database. The initial search attempt generated 320 papers published over 23 years, from 1996 to 2019. Furthermore, previous studies on supply chain risks have produced inconsistent results regarding the relationships between firms’ capabilities to respond to risks and their performance levels in different contexts. Therefore, to address these perceived drawbacks in the existing literature and providing insights for managers regarding firms’ capabilities in different business settings, we implemented a meta-analysis of previous empirical research regarding supply chain risk. The test results showed that firms must boost their main capabilities to cope with supply chain risks and, thereby, improve performance. This study has several significant implications for both theory and practice. First, due to the wide-ranging scope of the supply chain field, previous studies of supply chain risk have been conducted from various perspectives, focusing on internal and external factors and supply chain factors. Second, we also focused on an overview of the research on supply chain risk through structural analysis. The structural analysis enables the discovery of the current status and trends for future research direction. Third, to discover the opportunities for future research through the current status of supply chain risk. Fourth, we conducted a meta-analysis to comprehensively investigate these inconsistent results. Finally, firms must improve their main capabilities to cope with supply chain risks and boost their performance levels.

근골격계질환 예방을 위한 유해요인조사 결과보고 제도의 실효성 방안에 대한 연구

이신우(Shinwoo Lee),김유창(Yuchang Kim) 대한인간공학회 2020 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.39 No.4

Objective: The purpose of this study is to understand the appropriateness and disadvantages of the result reporting system about risk factors analysis and to find out how to improve the effectiveness of the result reporting system. Background: Although the risk factors analysis for preventing musculoskeletal disorders was conducted since 2003, the implementation rate was low in Korea. Recently, as the legal effectiveness of the risk factors analysis has been lowed due to the low implementation rate, the issue of legal obligation the reporting system about risk factors analysis has been raised. In order to protect all workers from musculoskeletal disorders, it was necessary to find out how to increase the implementation rate by legally mandating the result reporting system about risk factors analysis. Method: This study was conducted a questionnaire of 126 safety/health managers, workers, and management supervisors, safety/health agency workers, and business owners in various industries. The main contents of the questionnaire are appropriateness, advantages, disadvantages, and effectiveness of the result reporting system about risk factors analysis. Results: The results showed that the reliability of risk factors analysis would be increased by the implementation of the result reporting system. The cost support system about risk factors analysis would be needed because of the cost problem on the corporation. Conclusion: It was judged that plan for enforcing the legal obligation of the reporting system would be needed to enhance the effectiveness of risk factor analysis. In order to increase the reliability of the risk factors analysis, it was necessary to report to the Minister of Employment and Labor after confirming by worker representative. Also, it was considered that a cost support system would be necessary to activate the result reporting system about risk factor analysis. Application: These results can contribute to the improvement of the risk factor analysis and the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders. It can be used as the basic data for research on the result reporting system about risk factors analysis.

화학물질관리법 내 화학사고 정책의 개선방안 및 산업계 지원방안 연구(Ⅰ)

박정규 ( Jeonggue Park ),서양원 ( Yangwon-suh ),간순영 ( Sun-yeong Gan ),이선우 ( Sun-woo Lee ) 한국환경정책평가연구원 2016 기본연구보고서 Vol.2016 No.-

본 연구는 「화관법」의 장외영향평가와 위해관리계획 등과 유사한 국내외 화학사고 예방정책의 제도를 분석하여 동 정책으로 어려움을 겪는 산업계를 지원하기 위한 목적으로, 「화관법」의 효과적 시행을 위한 제도적 개선안을 도출하였다. (1) 법령 및 고시 개정사항 ○ 장외영향평가의 적용분야 확대 우리나라는 유해화학물질 취급시설이 설치될 경우에만 타법과의 관계정보 검토를 통해 장외영향을 검토하며, 유해화학물질 취급시설 주변의 국토개발이 있을 경우에는 장외영향을 검토하지 않는다. 영국의 토지이용계획 제도에서는 양방향으로 검토하여 시설의 입지를 제한하도록 규정하고 있다. 이에 우리나라도 양방향으로 장외영향을 고려할 수 있도록 「국토의 계획 및 이용에 관한 법률」, 「건축법」, 「택지개발촉진법」에서 해당 개발행위 또는 시설 입지 시 장외영향을 고려하도록 제안하였다. ○ 장외영향평가 및 위해관리계획 이행점검 실시 장외영향평가와 위해관리계획 준수여부에 대한 이행점검을 실시하고 규제강화 측면에서 벌칙 조항을 강화할 것을 제안하였다. 하지만 본 과제수행 중 「화관법」 제61조에 “변경된 위해관리계획서를 제출하지 아니하거나 거짓으로 제출한 자는 1년 이하의 징역 또는 3천만원 이하의 벌금에 처한다”라고 규정이 개정되었다. 이는 위해관리계획서가 변경될 경우 즉시 변경된 위해관리계획서를 제출해야 하나, 이를 이행하지 않을 경우 이행점검 과정에서 위반사항으로 적발될 수 있다는 측면에서 이와 같이 규정을 개정한 것으로 보인다. 따라서 법적 규제 이외에 장외영향평가와 위해관리계획 준수여부에 대한 이행점검을 지속적으로 할 수 있도록 추가적인 제안사항을 제시하였다. (2) 타법과의 협의사항 ○ 공정안전보고서와의 중복성 해소방안 마련: 고용노동부 「화관법」 내 장외영향평가서 및 위해관리계획서와 「산업안전보건법」의 공정안전보고서에 대한 중복 규제 문제가 지속되고 있다. 이에 환경부와 고용노동부에서는 `PSM/RMP 제도 중복 규제 해소를 위한 전문가 검토반`을 구성하여 중복사항에 대한 사업장의 애로사항을 확인하였으며, 양 부처 각각의 연구용역을 통해 협업하여 작성항목 중복에 대한 문제를 해소하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 현재 연구용역이 진행 중이므로 추후 연구결과가 제시되는 대로 이를 확인하여 2차년도 연구에 추가할 예정이다. (3) 정책적 제언사항 ○ 장외영향평가 미제출 사업장 관리 강화 우리나라의 장외영향평가 제도는 적용 물질의 범위가 광범위하고 장외영향평가서 미제출에 대한 법적 불이익도 없어, 관리에 있어서 사각지대가 발생할 우려가 있다. 「화관법」에서는 장외영향평가서 미제출 사업장에 대한 법적 조항을 마련하고 있으며, 이외에 지방청의 촘촘한 관리감독, 고용노동부와의 협업을 통한 공정안전보고서 사업장 정보 활용, 장외영향평가 작성 관련 설명회 참여 독려 등 추가적인 관리 강화방안을 마련할 것을 제안하였다. ○ 소규모 사업장에 대한 작성지원 방안 마련 소규모 사업장의 경우 제도에 대한 이해나 전문성이 없어 작성에 대한 지원이 필요하다. 현재 지원하고 있는 방안과 함께, 미국과 영국에서 산업체에 대하여 지원하고 있는 방안을 참고하여 국내 소규모 사업장에 대한 작성지원 방안을 마련할 것을 제안하였다. 장외영향평가 범용 프로그램의 지속적 고도화, 현재까지의 컨설턴트 제도의 효율성 확인과 개선사항의 도출, 작성과 제출이 동시에 가능한 온라인 제출 시스템, 스크리닝 수준의 사전평가 시스템을 지원할 것을 제안하였다. ○ 작성예시집 갱신기 발간된 작성예시집에 대한 갱신과 산업계의 업종별 작성예시집에 대한 요구가 제기됨에 따라 미국 위해관리계획서에서 제공하는 지침을 살펴보고 다음과 같이 제안하였다. 우선 장외영향평가서 혹은 위해관리계획서에 대한 샘플이 아닌, 작성에 도움이 되는 도구나 기술정보를 포함한 길라잡이 형태로 만들어야 한다. 단기적으로 물질별·업종별 유통량, 취급현황 등을 고려하여 우선순위를 선정하여 우선순위가 높은 업종을 중심으로 물질별, 업종별 등 간단하고 시급한 작성예시집부터 마련할 것을 제안하였다. 장기적으로는 미국과 같이 다량으로 취급하는 불화수소와 같은 물질을 대상으로 상황·업종에 따른 각 항목별 상세하고 세밀한 기술지침이 마련되어야 할 것이다. 이를 위해서는 작성예시집 마련을 위한 연구인력이 반드시 충원되어야 한다. 현재 작성예시집 발간에 대한 환경부 용역사업이 진행되고 있으므로 이에 대한 결과가 제시되면, 이를 검토하여 2차년도 연구에서 추가적으로 제시할 예정이다. ○ 장외영향평가서 및 위해관리계획서 심사 관련 조직 확대 및 제도 개선 평가기관의 심사인력 부족으로 장외영향평가서 및 위해관리계획서의 적합여부 통보가 지연되고 있다는 것이 가장 큰 문제점으로 지적되었다. 우리나라는 영국이나 미국에 비해 심사 인력이 매우 부족한 것으로 조사되었다. 따라서 적체되는 물량을 해소할 수 있도록 장외영향 평가서 및 위해관리계획서의 심사를 담당하고 있는 사고예방심사과의 인력을 확대하는 동시에 온라인 제출 시스템을 구축하여 평가시스템 간소화 방안을 제안하고자 한다. ○ 위해관리계획의 온라인 제출 시스템 구축 장외영향평가서와 위해관리계획서는 사업장이 제출해야 할 분량이 매우 많아 행정적인 비용과 업무 부담이 크기 때문에 온라인 제출 시스템을 구축하여 제출해야 할 필요가 있다. 그러나 장외영향평가의 경우 시설정보에 대한 확인관계를 평가해야하기 때문에 온라인 제출은 어려울 것으로 판단되며, 위해관리계획의 경우 위해관리계획의 이행을 관리하는 것이기 때문에 가능할 것으로 보인다. 우리나라의 여건과 미국의 제출 형태를 토대로 5가지 형태의 온라인 제출 시스템을 제안하였으며, 제출방식에 따른 장단점도 함께 제시하였다. ○ 작성 전문기관 제도의 개선 작성 전문기관 제도의 경우 현재는 제도 시행 초기이므로 산업계, 컨설팅업체, 평가기관 측면에서 모두 필요한 제도이다. 작성전문기관에 대한 장·단점을 분석하여 이를 개선할 수 있는 방안을 제안하였다. 1안은 현행 그대로 작성전문기관 제도를 유지하되 지정 및 취소 기준을 좀 더 명확히 제시하는 것이다. 즉, 인력, 시설 및 장비의 보유현황뿐 아니라, 장외영향평가서의 심사건수나 평가서의 질적 평가 등을 통해 정량적·정성적 기준의 확대 적용을 고려해 볼 필요가 있다. 2안은 최소한의 자격요건을 갖춘 장외영향평가사와 같은 제도를 도입하도록 제안하였다. 3안은 작성전문기관의 제도를 폐지하는 것이다. 앞서 언급하였듯이, 기술적 향상이 완료되는 시점이 도래한다면 중장기적으로는 작성전문기관의 제도를 자연스럽게 폐지하는 것을 제안하고자 한다. ○ 위해관리계획 정보 공유시스템 구축 위해관리계획에 대한 정보 제공은 위해관리계획서를 직접 대면, 서면, 화학물질안전원 및 관할 시청, 구청, 군청 홈페이지에 게재하는 방법 등을 통해 이루어지고 있어 보다 효과적이고 통합적인 위해관리계획 정보 공유시스템의 구축이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 미국과 영국에서 제공하는 정보의 범위와 방법을 우리나라와 비교해 본 결과, 정보제공 범위에 있어서는 큰 차이가 없었으나, 방법에 있어서 개선할 필요가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 정보를 필요로 하는 주민, 관련 지자체 등에게 관련 정보를 효과적으로 전달할 수 있도록 웹 기반의 위해관리계획 정보공유 시스템을 마련할 것을 제안하였다. 또한 온라인 정보 공유시스템에 대한 접근이 어려운 사람들을 위해 직접 대면, 서면공지 중 한 가지를 선택하여 함께 병행하도록 제안하였다. ○ 위험도 산정방법의 개선 장외영향평가의 위험도 산정방법을 분석한 결과 미흡함이 확인되었다. 따라서 각 항목에 대하여 개선하는 방안과 위험도 산정방법에 대한 산정방법 자체를 개선하는 것을 제안하였다. 첫째, 영향범위 내 주민 수를 객관적으로 확보하기 위해 경제총조사 자료를 활용하여 장외영향평가 범용 프로그램에 반영하고 국내 실정에 적합한 사고발생빈도 자료를 마련하는 등 현행 제도의 문제점을 개선하는 것이다. 둘째, 세베소 지침 내 위해성평가와 관리에서 활용되고 있는 위험 매트릭스와 같은 기법을 통해 산정하는 방법 자체를 개선하는 등 위해성 기반의 제도 운영방식을 도입하는 방안을 제안하였다. 2차년도 연구에서는 첫째, 1차년도 연구에서 제시한 외국의 화학사고 영향평가 방법을 실제 적용함으로써 방법론에 대한 실효성과 활용방안을 검토할 예정이다. 둘째, 화학사고 영향을 산정하기 위한 평가기법 및 기술을 분석하기 위해 국내외 화학사고 영향평가 평가기법과 기술 분석 및 관련 시스템의 구축 현황을 조사할 예정이다. 셋째, 2017년은 「화관법」 시행 2년 후가 되므로 산업계의 이행사례가 축적될 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 대상 사업장에 대한 시설의 개선효과, 실효성 등에 대하여 산업체의 화학사고 제도 이행현황을 1차년도에 이어 추가적으로 조사할 예정이다. 마지막으로 평가기법 및 기술현황 조사와 산업계의 의견 수렴 결과를 바탕으로 「화관법」 내 화학사고 정책의 기술적 개선방안과 산업계 지원방안을 도출할 예정이다. In this study, institutional improvement measures for implementing the Chemicals Control Act effectively were drawn with the purpose of supporting the industry. For this, similar domestic and foreign chemical accident prevention policies and regulations to off-site consequence analysis and risk management plan in the Chemicals Control Act were comparatively analyzed. (1) Matters for the revision of law and notification ○ Expansion of applicable fields of off-site consequence analysis The preparation of a regulation to review the impact on the outside of place of business in case of a land development activity near a hazardous chemical handling facility in Article 58 (Standards, etc. for Granting Permission for Development Activities) and 61 (Related Authorization, Permission, etc. Deemed Granted) of the National Land Planning and Utilization Act was suggested in order to review the impact on the outside of place of business bilaterally just as the land use planning in the UK. It was also suggested to prepare detailed review procedures when reviewing the related information with other acts when a hazardous chemical handling facility was installed. ○ Execution of review of off-site consequence analysis and implementation of risk management plan The review of implementation regarding the off-site consequence analysis and the compliance with the risk management plan was carried out. It was also suggested to reinforce penalty clauses in terms of reinforcing the regulations. However, Article 61 of the Chemicals Control Act was amended while carrying out this project so that the relevant penalty was strengthened. Therefore, additional suggestions were presented to carry out the implementation review on the off-site consequence analysis and the compliance with the risk management plan continuously. (2) Matters for consultation with other acts ○ Preparation of measures to solve overlap with the report for dangers of process : Ministry of Employment and Labor The Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Employment and Labor are making efforts to solve the problem of overlapping items in cooperation through separate research services. It is planned to add the relevant research results to this study in the 2nd year. (3) Policy proposals ○ Reinforcement of management of places of business that did not submit the off-site consequence analysis It was suggested to prepare additional management reinforcement measures including the utilization of information regarding the places of business that submitted the process safety reports through the close management and supervision by local administrations and the cooperation with the Ministry of Employment and Labor. It was also proposed to encourage participation in the briefing session related to the preparation of off-site consequence analysis. ○ Establishment of measures to provide preparation support to small-sized places of business It was suggested to support the continuous advancement of general-purpose program for the off-site consequence analysis, confirmation of efficiency of consultant system up to date and drawing of matters for improving the system. It was also proposed to develop online submission system that enables the preparation and submission at the same time and screening-level advanced evaluation system. ○ Renew of collection of preparation examples At first, a guide including the information of helpful tools or technologies for preparation, not samples of off-site consequence analysis or risk management plan should be prepared. It was suggested to select the priority order in consideration of circulation amount and handling status for each chemical and type of business and prepare a simple but urgent collection of preparation examples first based on the types of business high on the list of priorities. Detailed and close technical guidelines for each item according to the type of business should be prepared for chemicals such as hydrogen fluoride handled in large quantity in U.S. in the long term. For this, research personnel needs for preparing a collection of preparation examples should be filled. The service project of the Ministry of Environment regarding the publication of the collection of preparation examples is being carried out currently, so when the result is presented, it is scheduled to review and present such result additionally in this study in the 2nd year. ○ Expansion of organization related screening of off-site consequence analysis and risk management plan and institutional improvement It is intended to suggest a measure to simplify the evaluation system by establishing online submission system and expanding the personnel in the accident prevention examination division that handles the examination of off-site consequence analysis and risk management plan in order to solve the quantity requiring evaluation that is accumulated. ○ Establishment of online risk management plan submission system 5 different types of online submission system were suggested based on the conditions in our country and the submission types in U.S. and the advantages and disadvantages of each submission type were presented together. ○ Improvement of specialized preparation agency system The first measure is to present the selection and cancellation standards more clearly while maintaining the specialized preparation agency system. The second measure is to introduce the system such as an evaluator of impact on outside of place of business who fulfilled the minimum qualification requirements. The third measure is to abolish the specialized preparation agency system in the mid- and long term. ○ Establishment of risk management plan information sharing system It was suggested to prepare web-based risk management plan information sharing system to deliver relevant information to residents and relevant local governments that required information effectively. Also, it was suggested to allow people who experienced difficulty in accessing the online information sharing system to select either face-to-face notice or notice in writing. ○ Improvement of risk level estimation method First, it was suggested to improve the problems of the current system by utilizing and reflecting economy census on the general-purpose program for the off-site consequence analysis and preparing the accident occurrence frequency data suitable for domestic circumstances in order to secure the number of residents in the range of influence objectively. Second, a measure to introduce the risk-based system operation method such as the improvement of estimation method through a method such as risk matrix used in the risk assessment and management of the Seveso Directive was suggested. The followings are planned in this study in the 2nd year, first, it is planned to review the effectiveness and utilization plans of the method by actually applying the foreign chemical accident impact evaluation method presented in this study in the 1st year. Second, it is planned to analyze the domestic and foreign chemical accident impact evaluation techniques and technologies and investigate the relevant system establishment status in order to analyze evaluation techniques and technologies for estimating the impact of a chemical accident. Third, it is expected that the examples of implementation by the industry will be accumulated in 2017 since it will be the third year for the implementation of the Chemicals Control Act. Therefore, it is planned to investigate the implementation status of chemical accident system by the industry additionally including the facility improvement effects and effectiveness for target places of business, followed by the 1st year. Lastly, it is planned to draw the technical improvement measures for chemical accident policies in the Chemicals Control Act and the measures for providing support to the industry based on the result of status evaluation of evaluation techniques and technologies and the collection of opinions from the industry.

A Survey of Information Security Risk Analysis Methods

Armaghan Behnia,Rafhana Abd Rashid,Junaid Ahsenali Chaudhry 한국산학기술학회 2012 SmartCR Vol.2 No.1

There are already many models of risk assessment and more are emerging every day. They all have the same fundamental target, but most attempt to hit the target from very different approaches. Some approaches can be applied to all types of risk, while others are specific to particular risks. A particularly dangerous risk in the global economy today is the security of information. Information is a key asset for organizations, and reducing the risk of information compromise is a high priority. This study proposed a methodology for information security risk analysis in which the assets, vulnerabilities, threats, and controls of an organization are linked. The main purpose of the study is to compare and clarify the different activities, inputs, and outputs required by each model of information security risk assessment and the analysis that effectively addresses the risks of information security. At the moment, there are numerous risk analysis methodologies available, some of which are qualitative while others are more quantitative in nature. These methodologies have a common goal to estimate the overall value of risk. An organization must choose the most proper methodology based on their specific requirements.

위험 및 안전분야 규제영향분석제도의 개선방안에 관한 연구

최무현(Moo Hyun Choi)(崔武玄) 위기관리 이론과 실천 2013 Crisisonomy Vol.9 No.9

본 연구는 위험 및 안전 분야의 현행 규제영향분석제도의 문제점을 규제담당 공무원와 전문가 조사를 바탕으로 분석하고 앞으로 위험분석을 포함하는 규제영향분석제도 개선방안을 제안하였다. 이를 위해 규제영향분석 및 위험분석 관련된 분야의 연구를 수행하여 온 전문가를 대상으로 한 전문가 조사를 실시하였다. 조사 결과, 공무원들과 전문가들은 현행 규제영향분석을 전반적으로는 긍정적으로 평가하면서도, 세부적인 설계와 구성요소, 절차에 대해서는 부정적인 관점을 가지고 있음을 발견하였다. 이상과 같은 논의를 바탕으로 다음과 같은 정책적 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 첫째, 위험 및 위험분석 정의의 명확화하고, 위험분석의 절차 및 구성요소 등을 표준화할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 위험분석이 실제적으로 활용되기 위해서는 적절한 수준 이상의 법정화는 필수적이다. 셋째, 특히 위험규제 분야에서의 커뮤니케이션의 활성화가 절실히 요구된다. 넷째, 위험분석이 확대되어지기 위해서는 위험분석의 인프라 구축이 선행되어야 한다. 다섯째, 장기적으로 전정부적인 규제영향분석 및 위험분석 평가부서의 설치를 추진할 수 있다. This study seeks to analyze the institutional and legal status as well as problems that are becoming noticeable in Korea's increasing regulation of 'public risk', and provides institutional measures for adequate management and control of risk from a regulatory perspective. Based on these results of analysis, this study proposes the following policy measures, First, the concept of risk as well as risk analysis must be clearly defined, and there is a need to standardize risk analysis procedures and composition factors. Second, in order for risk analysis to be practically utilized, a certain level of legal mandates are necessary. Third, vitalizing communication within the field of regulatory risk is necessary because one of the biggest problems in RIA is the noticeable bias in opinion due to weak procedures of public consultation. Four, risk analysis infrastructure such as political will, expertise and funding is necessary for risk analysis to be implemented effectively. Finally, in the long term a government-wide RIA and risk analysis assessment agency or office must be installed.

건설현장의 사고원인에 따른 내·외부 리스크 핵심 요인 분석

유영진 ( Yu Yeong-jin ),김태희 ( Kim Taehui ),손기영 ( Son Kiyoung ),이경훈 ( Lee Kyoung-hun ),김지명 ( Kim Ji-myong ) 한국건축시공학회 2016 한국건축시공학회지 Vol.16 No.6

The demand of construction risk analysis is rapidly increased to improve the competitiveness of construction companies and the sound management of the construction project. However, estimating the amount and uncertainty of the risk is difficult due to the wide range of risks in the construction industry. Moreover, most of the research on risk management of construction risk is only focused on the causes of risk without separate the internal and external risk. This study statistically analysis the internal risk and external risk based on the accidents cases which are caused at construction sites to define the difference and importances of the risk. An accident cause analysis and T-test analysis are carried out to reach the goal of study. The results of the study are expected to be used as a guideline of construction project risk analysis.

항만 물류 생산성 향상을 위한 안전사고의 위험성 분석 - 항만 컨테이너 터미널운영사의 하역사고 사례를 중심으로 -

김동진 ( Dong-jin Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2016 生産性論集 Vol.30 No.4

In this study, a fuzzy inference method is applied to improve the result of accident risk when an uncertainty is involved in data. In Korea, ports are taking care of 99% of the total volume of international trade, where accidents related to cargoes loading/unloading activities happen. Though the accident rate is lower than other logistics industries, the consequence of any accident and its negative after effect often cause severe results in trade transactions at the national level. The risk analysis is a method used in many fields to calculate the level of risk using accident probability(frequency) and corresponding consequence(damage) when an accident occurs. And the fuzzy inference technique is normally used to inference the result when given data are not enough to employ for the analysis. Since the accident data for port related activities do not occur frequently, there exists uncertainty in the resulting risk level. Therefore, we combine a risk analysis technique, i.e. risk matrix with fuzzy inference to calculate the risk level of port accident using real accident data over the 5 year period(2009-2013). The results are following: for accident types, External Truck Damage(ETD), Container & Cargo Damage for Quay operation(CCDQ), Yard Equipment Damage(YED) are the riskiest accidents and main causes of accidents are mishandling of equipment, equipment malfunction, and collision between spreader and container. We calculated the accident risk levels of each risk factor based upon which more practical accident mitigation measures could be applied to reduce the overall risk level. Since most of the accidents results from diverse human factors, future research should be focused on the detailed classification and analysis of them. The primary purpose of risk analysis is to find the potential risky factors, calculate the risk, and establish proper risk reduction plans and implementation of them, industry-specific risk assessment techniques should be developed in more proper way. Also, for each risk mitigation measure, a necessary way to judge the effect of it, i.e., a cost-benefit analysis should be implemented in decision-making process.

Quantitative risk assessment of offshore carbon dioxide injection system considering seismic effects

Lee, Younggeun,Lee, Gunhak,An, Jinjoo,Kim, Kyeongsu,Ahmed, Usama,Lee, Chul-Jin,Han, Chonghun Elsevier 2018 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL Vol.77 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is one of the most generally used safety analysis measures for risk management in process industries. Currently, earthquakes occur worldwide, resulting in significant damage. Despite the importance of considering the danger of earthquakes, however, seismic effects are often not included in risk analysis owing to difficulties in considering the multi-hazard nature and domino effects of earthquakes.</P> <P>In this study, an improved methodology for QRA was proposed to consider the seismic effects including domino effects, and multi-hazard impacts of an earthquake by using a Bayesian network (BN). This analysis was applied to a topside CO<SUB>2</SUB> injection system for underground storage, which is susceptible to seismic effects. Because frequency analysis is based on a causal relationship, the BN can be used to simultaneously consider domino effects and multi-hazard risks. As a result, the societal risk integral, one of the factors in risk analysis, was 9.667 × <SUP> 10 - 4 </SUP> / y e a r in modified QRA; this value shows an increase of 3.9% compared with the societal risk integral in conventional QRA. Furthermore, the value can be increased to 35% in the sensitivity analysis depending on annual exceedance probability (AEP). This result shows the importance of considering seismic effects, including both the domino effect and multi-hazard impacts, in QRA. A risk reduction method was additionally applied to mitigate the process risk.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Quantitative risk assessment is performed on topside CO<SUB>2</SUB> injection system. </LI> <LI> Modified QRA methodology considering seismic effect is applied. </LI> <LI> Domino-effect and multi-hazard are considered by using Bayesian network. </LI> <LI> Risk mitigation and reduction are performed to manage the risks. </LI> </UL> </P>

Applying Fire Risk Analysis to Develop Fire-safe Modular Walls: Guidance to Material Selection, Design Approach and Construction Method

Seokho Lim,Joonsoo Chung,Mihyun Esther Kim 대한건축학회 2022 Architectural research Vol.24 No.2

For the past decade, South Korea had experienced catastrophic building fires, which resulted in consider-ably high number of casualties. This motivated research to develop fire-safe wall assemblies. In this study Fire Risk Analysis (FRA) is conducted as part of the project designing phase to ensure fire safety of the final product. Traditional approach was to consider fire performance at the end of the designing stage, when PASS/FAIL fire test results are required to be submitted to the Authority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ). By applying a fire risk analysis to guide the designing phase, overall fire safety of a wall assembly can be achieved more systematically as conducting FRA allows designers to clearly identify elements that are more vulnerable to fire and simply replace them with other practical options. Severity of fire risk is determined by considering the fire hazards of a wall assembly such as the exterior layer, insulation, vertical connectivity, and external ignition sources (e.g., photovoltaic panels). Frequency of fire risk is assessed based on the factors affecting fire likelihood, which are air cavity and fire-stopping applied in the design, and random design changes occurring during on-site construction. Fire risk matrix is proposed based on these fire risk factors and efforts to reduce the fire risk level associated with the wall assembly are given by systematically assessing the fire risk factors identified from fire risk analysis. Current study demonstrates how fire risk analysis can be applied to develop fire-safe walls by reducing the relevant fire risks– both severity and frequency.

A New Damage-probability Approach for Risk Analysis of Rain-fed Agricultural Systems under Meteorological Drought

Hossein Mehdikhani,Bahram Saghafian,Peyman Daneshkar Arasteh 대한토목학회 2017 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.21 No.4

Droughts are natural part of virtually all climates and cause losses of income around the globe. Traditional crisis management approach has been ineffective since passive responses are poorly planned and coordinated. On the contrary, risk management paradigm aims at reducing vulnerability to disasters through advocating preparedness and mitigation. Although the core of risk management is quantified risk analysis, few studies have been reported to lay out the risk analysis framework for droughts. In this paper, a new approach to develop drought Damage-Probability Curve (DPC) for risk analysis is proposed. Drought damage estimation is performed via a neural network model and, for the first time, a trivariate copula was incorporated into damage probability estimation. On the basis of DPC, robust drought risk analysis tools such as the expected value of damage (annual risk), exceedence probability curve and damage return period curve are developed. Regression, Standardized Regression Coefficient (SRC) and Correlation Coefficients (CC) techniques are applied to investigate input sensitivity analysis. Eventually, reliability analysis of rain-fed crop production is performed. The proposed risk analysis approach is evaluated on rain correlation coefficients-fed wheat production over the Qazvin region, Iran. Results show that the proposed approach may be an applicable to assess drought risk.